| 1. |
- Bara, Corinne, 1981-, et al.
(författare)
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Civil war recurrence and postwar violence : Toward an integrated research agenda
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Journal of International Relations. - : Sage Publications. - 1354-0661 .- 1460-3713. ; 27:3, s. 913-935
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Violence after civil war is a challenge to sustainable peace. Many armed conflicts today are recurrences of previous wars and much of the literature on violence after war explains why armed groups return to the battlefield. But even if peace prevails, many other types of violence take place in postwar environments. This postwar violence is likewise subject to a growing multidisciplinary literature. Using citation network analysis, we show that research on war recurrence and postwar violence has developed in relative isolation from each other?although these phenomena are interrelated. This compartmentalization leads us to overlook important similarities and differences in the drivers of different forms of violence after war. We demonstrate this by reviewing the literature in both of these closely related fields. While war recurrence and postwar violence share a set of common risk factors, some factors can have opposite effects on the two outcomes. Because these insights only emerge when systematically comparing the two strands of literature, we propose a novel framework for the study of violence after wars that aims at overcoming the compartmentalization of research within these two fields. The framework serves both as a conceptual lens and an analytical tool to categorize and compare different forms of violence after war. We then outline how the framework aids scholars in pursuing an integrated research agenda, with concrete suggestions for research questions that should be studied to expand our understanding of violence after wars.
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| 2. |
- Bjarnesen, Jesper, et al.
(författare)
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Democratic backsliding in Côte d'Ivoire : legislative elections tighten Ouattara's grip on power
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The ruling RHDP's victory in legislative elections in March 2021 has tightened incumbent President Alassane Ouattara's grip on political power in Côte d'Ivoire. Though Ouattara has taken a conciliatory stance towards the opposition since his re-election, his control of political institutions, low voter turnout, electoral violence and the president’s international status heighten the risk of further democratic backsliding in Côte d'Ivoire.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Mobjörk, Malin, et al.
(författare)
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Climate-Related Security Risks : Towards an Integrated Approach
- 2016
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The most recent assessment report on climate change by the Intergovernmen- tal Panel on Climate Change has established beyond doubt that human activities have altered the earth’s climate system. Climate change is now widely recog- nized as one of the major forces shaping the future, and is an example of how human actions fundamentally a ect the basic physical processes of the world, with far-reaching and, at in the worst case scenario, disastrous consequences for human societies. Given these profound impacts, climate change is increasingly being treated as a security risk. Because of the diverse impacts a changing cli- mate is having and will continue to have across the globe, the security challenges are of a multifaceted character, involving human, community, state and interna- tional security. E ective policy responses in di erent policy areas will be pivotal to addressing these risks.This report provides an overview of climate-related security risks and policy responses for addressing those risks. It does this by, first, analysing six thematic areas in which climate change can pose security risks, and then investigating how policy organizations integrate climate-related security risks into their policies and practical work. The overarching aim is to contribute practical alternatives on how to address and work with climate-related security risks. The study provides a deeper understanding of the opportunities and challenges presented by di erent integration strategies. We believe that this knowledge is required to allow policy- makers to accurately assess the value of current strategies and identify how poli- cies, strategic guidance, internal organization and procedures could be improved in order to respond better to climate-related security risks. The report is based on a review of academic articles, policy reports and policy documents, as well as interviews with practitioners and policymakers.Investigating climate-related security risksAs mentioned above, the report has a two-fold purpose: to investigate climate-re- lated security risks and to outline the policy responses to those risks. Chapter 2 introduces our approach to investigating climate-related security risks and pre- sents six thematic areas involving such risks: water security; food security; sea level rise and coastal degradation; extreme weather events and weather-related disasters; climate-related migration; and violent conflict. Since a key question is when and under what circumstances climate-related security risks evolve, we also present a case study on the pathways from climate-related change to violent conflict in East Africa.Chapter 2 comes to four major conclusions. First, the way in which climate-re- lated change increases security risks, including violent conflict, is dependent on the ability of societies to respond to stress. Governance structures and adaptive capacity are therefore critical mediating factors that a ect the security implica- tions of climate change. Second, the security risks posed by climate change interact with one another—water scarcity a ects food security, and food security could increase social unrest and violence. Greater attention is needed on how these interactions a ect a given thematic issue or geographical area. To respond e ec- tively to these risks, integrated approaches are required. Third, climate-related security risks are transmitted over time and space. Some risks are delayed, while others manifest themselves as rapid onset disasters. Moreover, consequences in one locality can have major implications in other distant locations. Policymaking needs to pay careful attention to this and better include the trans-boundary and long-term implications in its responses. Fourth, even though climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are characterized by far-reaching inequalities. Already vulnerable people and societies are often the most severely a ected. This raises fundamental moral issues about equity, justice, vulnerability and power relations. Greater e orts need to be taken in the security-oriented analysis to address how di erent groups and communities are a ected by climate change and how these risks can be reduced.The responses of selected policy organizations and suggestions for improving strategies for integrating climate-related security risksChapter 3 examines how di erent policy organizations have responded to cli- mate-related security risks. First, it provides an overview of how a number of United Nations agencies and regional organizations have framed and incorpo- rated these risks into their work. Second, two in-depth studies are presented on the opportunities and challenges faced by two types of policy organization in their e orts to integrate climate-related security risks into their work. The organ- izations are: the European External Action Service and the development organi- zations in two European countries (Germany and the United Kingdom). None of these organizations has climate change as part of its core mandate so each faces a challenge to integrate climate change into its di erent issue areas.The case studies show that while policies are often ambitious, they are formu- lated at a relatively abstract level and generally not implemented by the organ- izations in a systematic fashion. Based on these cases, the chapter makes four suggestions on how to improve strategies for integrating climate-related security risks. First, mainstreaming climate change might help to raise awareness of its possible security implications, but needs also to be complemented with integra- tion strategies. To ensure that climate risks are taken into account in analysis and programming, it is important that sta members have the necessary resources and capabilities, as well as e ective follow-up procedures. Second, there is a need to develop analytical tools that can improve the organizations’ work in this area. This involves for example methods to analysing climate risks and to develop cli- mate-sensitive tools for conflict prevention. Third, rather than adding a security dimension on to existing e orts on climate action, a ‘climatization’ of other pol- icy areas is needed, which means addressing how climate-related change a ects existing policies and could create new situations of insecurity. Fourth, it is essen- tial to improve coordination across policy areas, preferably around specific projects based on a common strategy. In order for such projects to be e ective, the objec- tives need to be clear, actors need to be provided with incentives to get involved, and su cient resources must be allocated to facilitate the cross-fertilization of expertise.Improving policy responses to climate-related security risksChapter 4 uses these insights to outline a number of overarching reflections on how to improve policy responses to climate-related security risks. As is clearly shown throughout the report, a changing climate poses considerable security risks and could under some conditions even increase the risk of violent conflict. While policy organizations have started to address these challenges, there is a need to develop these e orts further and to work in a more integrated and context- sensitive manner. The chapter presents a number of overarching but at the same time practically oriented options for policymakers and practitioners:Currently, di erent policy communities use di erent concepts to frame the security risks posed by climate change. Identifying common concepts can facilitate collaboration and mutual understanding and reinforce coordinated responses across policy communities.To ensure e ective implementation it is important to develop organizational structures to strengthen coordination. The report identifies two complementary strategies for overcoming silos: the creation of interdepartmental working groups and drawing upon the assistance of external expert units for the coordination of the work. Incentives and resources are also critical to enable policymakers and administrators to work across silos both within and across governmental bodies and public authorities. Sustained and coherent leadership will be essential to achieve this.Closer cooperation between policymakers, practitioners and researchers will be needed in order to provide systematic and profound knowledge on climate-related security risks. Policymaking, practical work and research need to be conducted in parallel, and they should inform each other. Increased collaboration and movement between these di erent domains can strengthen both policy and research. Experience also shows that expert units can undertake the function of translating research into policy.In sum, climate change poses multiple security risks for societies across the globe. These risks are transmitted over time and space and are manifested di erently depending on the context. Since these security risks span di erent research and policy areas, the challenges also involve overcoming disciplinary and organiza- tional barriers. To achieve this, strategic guidance based on long-term thinking is required. Leadership is therefore vital in order to develop the required preventive climate-related security risks measures that will contribute to human security, sustainable development and peace.Suggestions for the Swedish policy contextThe above conclusions are generic in character. Since this report has been com- missioned by the Swedish Ministry for Foreign A airs, we end with a list of spe- cific policy suggestions for the Swedish context:Set up an interdepartmental working group to coordinate the Swedish Government’s work on climate-related security risks;Establish an external expert unit that can support the government and relevant agencies by providing policy relevant analysis on climate-related security risks;Arrange an annual conference on climate-related security risks across departments, agencies, research departments and institutes to create
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| 6. |
- van Baalen, Sebastian, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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A coming anarchy? : Pathways from climate change to violent conflict in East Africa
- 2016
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The warming of the climate system is unequivocal according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and will have a strong impact on the security of humans and states alike. In the past half-century the climate system has changed in unprecedented ways and future climate change and variability will include long-lasting alterations to all components of the climate system. With the warming of the climate system and the recognition of the implications that this has for the availability and quality of renewable natural resources, scholars and policy-makers fear that the impacts of climate change will also increase the risk of violent conflict and affect their dynamics. However, despite the rather large amount of studies in the field, scholars have yet to move beyond a number of interesting patterns to establish results that remain robust across studies. While this is partly a reflection of the inherent challenge of observing links between uncertain structural factors such as climate change and rare social outcomes such as violent conflict, the field has also been repeatedly criticised for a lack of sound theoretical development. This has been exacerbated by the practice of excluding qualitative research from state of the art reviews. The purpose of this report is to fill this gap by contributing to a better theoretical understanding of the linkages between climate change and violent conflict through consulting the combined quantitative-qualitative literature.In this report, we seek to answer the question of how, and under what circumstances, climate change influences the risk of violent conflict in East Africa. We specifically focus on the pathways to violence – explanations that link various phenomena – in this case climate change and variability, and violent conflict – through a continuous and contiguous chain of links. We explore the research question through a systematic review of the climate- conflict literature on East Africa, hence obtaining a manageable amount of relevant studies and ensuring some minimal cross-study comparability. East Africa was chosen because of the frequency of violent conflict in the region, its high livelihood dependence on natural resources, high levels of poverty and limited capacity for climate change adaptation. The region is also especially relevant from a Swedish policy perspective, since Sweden has considerable development cooperation engagements in East Africa, for example in assisting climate change adaptation and peacebuilding. The present analysis builds on 44 peer-reviewed articles published between 1989-2015 that examine the relationship between climate-related environmental change and violent conflict. By focusing on climate-related environmental change, that is a change in biophysical conditions that are or will be affected by a change in the state of the climate or by variations in the mean state of the climate, we widened our analysis beyond climate change to encompass both short- and long-term environmental change.The analysis is summarised in a conceptual framework that identifies five types of pathways from climate-related environmental change to violent conflict in East Africa. In particular, the negative impact of climate-related environmental change on the availability of natural resources can lead to conflict by worsening livelihood conditions, by increasing migration or by changing pastoral mobility patterns. Taken together, these three types of pathways lead to or exacerbate local resource conflicts that sometimes turn violent. Weather conditions and climate variability can also affect the tactical considerations of armed groups and hence contribute to intensified fighting during certain periods. Finally, the analysis shows that local resource conflicts are susceptible to elite exploitation that often significantly increases the risk and intensity of violent conflict. This highlights the critical role of political and economic elites in explaining how local resource conflicts relate to larger processes of civil war, ethnic cleansing and insecurity.In the discussion, we deepen the analysis by underlining three critical dimensions inherent in the literature: the temporal, spatial and political dimensions. First, the analysis shows that it is essential to reflect on the temporal dimensions of a climate-conflict link, both with regard to temporal scale of the environmental change in question and the expected time lag from that change to the outbreak of violent conflict. There is no reason to believe that all climate-related environmental changes at different time scales generate the same social outcomes. The bulk of the quantitative literature on East Africa measures conflict onset or intensity as an immediate reaction to climate variability, thus studying the implications of climate variability rather than of climate change. To capture the full spectrum, investigations of a climate-conflict link also need to consider the implications of long-term changes in altered livelihood conditions and rapid- onset disasters such as extreme weather events, as these pose a different kind of challenge for societies to mitigate and respond to. Second, the analysis shows the importance of accounting for the spatial dimension. The impacts of climate-related environmental change are unevenly distributed across space and altered livelihood conditions can offset population movements. There is therefore often no merit in assuming that climate-related environmental change will lead to violence in a certain area without considering how people move between areas characterised by resource scarcity and resource abundance. Third, the analysis emphasises that climate-related environmental change and violent conflict cannot be understood in an apolitical vacuum, since socio-political processes affect the relative distribution of natural resources, the adaptive capacity of individuals, groups and societies, and the risk of violent conflict. For example, absent, corrupt or non-functional political institutions often increase the risk of local resource conflicts turning violent. Thus, while climate-related environmental change in itself has not precipitated an East African anarchy so far, it has already played a role in the dynamics of violent conflict and will probably continue to do so, even though the consequences are ultimately mediated by human behaviour.Regarding the implications for policy and future research, three strands of policy implications follow from the analysis. First, since a central claim in the literature is that worsening livelihood conditions make people more likely to engage in violence, efforts that mitigate the impact of climate- related environmental change and that build resilience may also contribute to resilience to violent conflicts. Examples include weather insurance schemes and improved access to markets for pastoralists, income diversification and efforts that improve livelihood conditions. Second, movements across space are a crucial adaptation mechanism for populations affected by climate- related environmental change, particularly for pastoralist groups. This means that efforts that enable and support adaptation to population movements may increase both human security and lower the risk of violent conflict. One example relates to efforts that enable pastoral mobility while providing channels to solve resulting conflicts between pastoralists and farmers. Finally, the analysis shows that institutions, both formal and informal, are crucial for mediating conflicts. Since most communities already have some conflict resolution mechanisms, outside actors should focus on how such local knowledge can be adapted to meet new demands and increased pressure, rather than trying to introduce entirely new mechanisms. Future scholarship should examine the challenges relating to the temporal and spatial dimensions of climate-conflict research by studying the impacts of long-term environmental change rather than climate variability and by accounting for how populations move across space. Future research should also seek to improve data quality, while considering the importance of matching data and methods with the underlying theoretical expectations.
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| 7. |
- van Baalen, Sebastian, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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Behind enemy lines : State-insurgent cooperation on rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka
- 2023
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Ingår i: Small Wars & Insurgencies. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0959-2318 .- 1743-9558. ; 34:1, s. 221-246
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article examines the conditions that foster state-insurgent cooperation in rebel governance. State-insurgent cooperation is puzzling because it can alienate hardliners, undermine the parties’ legitimacy, reveal sensitive information, and cause autonomy losses. We propose that conflict parties are more likely to discount these costs when they have overlapping civilian constituencies with high governance provision expectations. Analysing rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka using original data, we find that civilian expectations prompt cooperation even when the parties appeal to separate constituencies. The article nuances existing theories of rebel governance and contributes new knowledge on state-insurgent interactions in civil war.
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| 8. |
- van Baalen, Sebastian, 1989-
(författare)
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Civilian Protest and Competitive State-building in Rebel-held Côte d’Ivoire
- 2023
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Ingår i: Rebellious Riots. - Leiden : Brill Academic Publishers. - 9789004542396 - 9789004542402 ; , s. 94-127
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How do urban environments shape the occurrence of wartime civilian protest? Wartime civilian protest in this chapter refers to instances of public, collective, and predominantly nonviolent action by which noncombatants make claims on a conflict party within the context of armed conflict. Building on a unique georeferenced database of protest events in rebel-held Côte d’Ivoire, as well as insights from eight months of field research and relevant secondary sources, this chapter interrogates the occurrence and dynamics of wartime civilian protest. Starting from the observation that civilian protest was predominantly an urban phenomenon, I argue that protest was a function of a broader process of competitive state-building between the government and the rebels. Competitive state-building in rebel-held cities in turn prompted civilian protest by generating both opportunities for the rebels to organize anti-government protests, and opportunities and incentives for civilians to challenge wartime governance through collective action. The chapter contributes new knowledge on how urban environments shape processes of competitive state-building in civil war, the urban dynamics of wartime civilian agency, and to our understanding of how armed insurrection in the bushes can trigger civilian protests in the street.
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| 9. |
- van Baalen, Sebastian, 1989-
(författare)
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Civilian Protest in Civil War : Insights from Côte d’Ivoire
- 2023
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Ingår i: American Political Science Review. - : Cambridge University Press. - 0003-0554 .- 1537-5943. ; , s. 1-16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How does civilian protest shape civil war dynamics? Existing research shows that civilian protests against violence and war contribute to peace and restrain violence against civilians. There is less research on civilian protests that are at odds with peaceful conflict resolution, such as protests to salute armed actors, advocate against peace agreements, and oppose peacekeepers. This study develops a novel typology of wartime civilian protest that brings together protests to different ends, and theorizes the heterogeneous effects of protest on civil war dynamics. Using quantitative and qualitative evidence from new disaggregated and georeferenced event data from Côte d’Ivoire, the study demonstrates that—contingent on certain demands—protests were associated with violence against civilians, violence involving peacekeepers, and failed conflict resolution. These findings contribute new knowledge on how civilians shape the dynamics of civil war, and caution that nonviolent civilian action may not only be a force for de-escalation and peace.
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| 10. |
- van Baalen, Sebastian, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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Climate Change and Violent Conflict in East Africa : Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Research to Probe the Mechanisms
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Studies Review. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1521-9488 .- 1468-2486. ; 20:4, s. 547-575
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How does climate change affect the risk and dynamics of violent conflict? Existing research shows that climate change can increase the risk of violent conflict and significantly alter the dynamics of existing conflicts. Less is known about the exact mechanisms through which climate change affects violent conflict. In this article, we address this lacuna in light of the first sys- tematic review of both quantitative and qualitative scholarship. Through an analysis of forty-three peer-reviewed articles on climate-related environ- mental change and violent conflict in East Africa published 1989–2016, we evaluate to what extent the literature provides coherent explanations that identify relevant mechanisms, actors, and outcomes. In addition, we discuss the expected temporal and spatial distribution of violence and the confounding political factors implied in the literature. Against this back- ground, we offer a number of suggestions for how future climate-conflict research can theorize and explore mechanisms. Future research should distinguish between explanations that focus on causes and dynamics of climate-related violent conflict, theoretically motivate when and where vi- olence is most likely to occur, systematically examine the role of state policies and intervention, and explore the implications of each explanation at the microlevel.
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