| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Roelfsema, P. R., et al.
(författare)
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SPICA-A Large Cryogenic Infrared Space Telescope : Unveiling the Obscured Universe
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications Astronomical Society of Australia. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 1323-3580 .- 1448-6083. ; 35
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Measurements in the infrared wavelength domain allow direct assessment of the physical state and energy balance of cool matter in space, enabling the detailed study of the processes that govern the formation and evolution of stars and planetary systems in galaxies over cosmic time. Previous infrared missions revealed a great deal about the obscured Universe, but were hampered by limited sensitivity. SPICA takes the next step in infrared observational capability by combining a large 2.5-meter diameter telescope. cooled to below 8 K, with instruments employing ultra-sensitive detectors. A combination of passive cooling and mechanical coolers will be used to cool both the telescope and the instruments. With mechanical coolers the mission lifetime is not limited by the supply of cryogen. With the combination of low telescope background and instruments with state-of-the-art detectors SPICA provides a huge advance on the capabilities of previous missions. SPICA instruments offer spectral resolving power ranging from R similar to 50 through 11 000 in the 17-230 mu m domain and R similar to 28.000 spectroscopy between 12 and 18 mu m.SPICA will provide efficient 30-37 mu m broad band mapping, and small field spectroscopic and polarimetric imaging at 100, 200 and 350 mu m. SPICA will provide infrared spectroscopy with an unprecedented sensitivity of similar to 5 x 10(-20) W m (-2) (5 sigma/1 h)-over two orders of magnitude improvement over what earlier missions. This exceptional performance leap, will open entirely new domains in infrared astronomy; galaxy evolution and metal production over cosmic time, dust formation and evolution from very early epochs onwards, the formation history of planetary systems.
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| 3. |
- Meixner, Margaret, et al.
(författare)
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Herschel and ALMA measurements of dust and molecules in supernova 1987A
- 2013
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Ingår i: Proceedings of Science. - 1824-8039. ; Part F113823
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dust production by supernovae is important in the dust life cycle of a galaxy. The explosion of SN 1987A was the nearest SN detected in the last 400 years, allowing us detailed studies of contemporary evolution of a supernova for the first time. In 2011, Matsuura et al. reported 0.4-0.7 M of dust in SN 1987A based on Herschel HERITAGE survey data, which is surprisingly large compared to prior measurements of supernovae. In this paper, we present our follow-up studies of this important discovery about SN 1987A using the Herschel Space Observatory and the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). We highlight two important results, the detection of cold molecular gas and dust in the ejected material of SN 1987A. Our results suggest that SNe are significant producers of dust and molecules, as well as heavy elements, driving chemical evolution of galaxies.
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| 4. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 5. |
- McMillan, Hilary, et al.
(författare)
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Panta Rhei 2013-2015 : global perspectives on hydrology, society and change
- 2016
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 61:7, s. 1174-1191
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2013, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) launched the hydrological decade 2013-2022 with the theme "Panta Rhei: Change in Hydrology and Society". The decade recognizes the urgency of hydrological research to understand and predict the interactions of society and water, to support sustainable water resource use under changing climatic and environmental conditions. This paper reports on the first Panta Rhei biennium 2013-2015, providing a comprehensive resource that describes the scope and direction of Panta Rhei. We bring together the knowledge of all the Panta Rhei working groups, to summarize the most pressing research questions and how the hydrological community is progressing towards those goals. We draw out interconnections between different strands of research, and reflect on the need to take a global view on hydrology in the current era of human impacts and environmental change. Finally, we look back to the six driving science questions identified at the outset of Panta Rhei, to quantify progress towards those aims.
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| 6. |
- Alp, Dennis, et al.
(författare)
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The 30 Year Search for the Compact Object in SN 1987A
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 864:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite more than 30 years of searching, the compact object in Supernova (SN) 1987A has not yet been detected. We present new limits on the compact object in SN 1987A using millimeter, near-infrared, optical, ultraviolet, and X-ray observations from ALMA, VLT, HST, and Chandra. The limits are approximately 0.1 mJy (0.1 x 10(-26) erg s(-1) cm(-2) Hz(-1)) at 213 GHz, 1 L-circle dot (6 x 10(-29) erg s(-1) cm(-2) Hz(-1)) in the optical if our line of sight is free of ejecta dust, and 10(36) erg s(-1) (2 x 10(-30) erg s(-1) cm(-2) Hz(-1) ) in 2-10 keV X-rays. Our X-ray limits are an order of magnitude less constraining than previous limits because we use a more realistic ejecta absorption model based on three-dimensional neutrino-driven SN explosion models. The allowed bolometric luminosity of the compact object is 22 L-circle dot if our line of sight is free of ejecta dust, or 138L(circle dot) if dust-obscured. Depending on assumptions, these values limit the effective temperature of a neutron star (NS) to <4-8 MK and do not exclude models, which typically are in the range 3-4 MK. For the simplest accretion model, the accretion rate for an efficiency 77 is limited to <10(-11) eta(-1) M-circle dot yr(-1), which excludes most predictions. For pulsar activity modeled by a rotating magnetic dipole in vacuum, the limit on the magnetic field strength (B) for a given spin period (P) is B less than or similar to 10(14) P-2 G s(-2), which firmly excludes pulsars comparable to the Crab. By combining information about radiation reprocessing and geometry, we infer that the compact object is a dust-obscured thermally emitting NS, which may appear as a region of higher-temperature ejecta dust emission.
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| 7. |
- Cigan, Phil, et al.
(författare)
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High Angular Resolution ALMA Images of Dust and Molecules in the SN 1987A Ejecta
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 886:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present high angular resolution (similar to 80 mas) ALMA continuum images of the SN.1987A system, together with CO J = 2 -> 1, J = 6 -> 5, and SiO J = 5 -> 4 to J = 7 -> 6 images, which clearly resolve the ejecta (dust continuum and molecules) and ring (synchrotron continuum) components. Dust in the ejecta is asymmetric and clumpy, and overall the dust fills the spatial void seen in H alpha images, filling that region with material from heavier elements. The dust clumps generally fill the space where CO J = 6 -> 5 is fainter, tentatively indicating that these dust clumps and CO are locationally and chemically linked. In these regions, carbonaceous dust grains might have formed after dissociation of CO. The dust grains would have cooled by radiation, and subsequent collisions of grains with gas would also cool the gas, suppressing the CO J = 6 -> 5 intensity. The data show a dust peak spatially coincident with the molecular hole seen in previous ALMA CO J = 2 -> 1 and SiO J = 5 -> 4 images. That dust peak, combined with CO and SiO line spectra, suggests that the dust and gas could be at higher temperatures than the surrounding material, though higher density cannot be totally excluded. One of the possibilities is that a compact source provides additional heat at that location. Fits to the far-infrared-millimeter spectral energy distribution give ejecta dust temperatures of 18-23 K. We revise the ejecta dust mass to M-dust = 0.2-0.4 M-circle dot for carbon or silicate grains, or a maximum of <0.7 M-circle dot for a mixture of grain species, using the predicted nucleosynthesis yields as an upper limit.
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| 8. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 9. |
- Indebetouw, R., et al.
(författare)
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DUST PRODUCTION AND PARTICLE ACCELERATION IN SUPERNOVA 1987A REVEALED WITH ALMA
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 2041-8205. ; 782:1, s. L2-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Supernova (SN) explosions are crucial engines driving the evolution of galaxies by shock heating gas, increasing the metallicity, creating dust, and accelerating energetic particles. In 2012 we used the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array to observe SN 1987A, one of the best-observed supernovae since the invention of the telescope. We present spatially resolved images at 450 mu m, 870 mu m, 1.4 mm, and 2.8 mm, an important transition wavelength range. Longer wavelength emission is dominated by synchrotron radiation from shock-accelerated particles, shorter wavelengths by emission from the largest mass of dust measured in a supernova remnant (>0.2 M-circle dot). For the first time we show unambiguously that this dust has formed in the inner ejecta (the cold remnants of the exploded star's core). The dust emission is concentrated at the center of the remnant, so the dust has not yet been affected by the shocks. If a significant fraction survives, and if SN 1987A is typical, supernovae are important cosmological dust producers.
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| 10. |
- Indebetouw, R., et al.
(författare)
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DUST PRODUCTION AND PARTICLE ACCELERATION IN SUPERNOVA 1987A REVEALED WITH ALMA
- 2014
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 782:1, s. 6-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Supernova (SN) explosions are crucial engines driving the evolution of galaxies by shock heating gas, increasing the metallicity, creating dust, and accelerating energetic particles. In 2012 we used the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array to observe SN 1987A, one of the best-observed supernovae since the invention of the telescope. We present spatially resolved images at 450 mu m, 870 mu m, 1.4 mm, and 2.8 mm, an important transition wavelength range. Longer wavelength emission is dominated by synchrotron radiation from shock-accelerated particles, shorter wavelengths by emission from the largest mass of dust measured in a supernova remnant (>0.2 M-circle dot). For the first time we show unambiguously that this dust has formed in the inner ejecta (the cold remnants of the exploded star's core). The dust emission is concentrated at the center of the remnant, so the dust has not yet been affected by the shocks. If a significant fraction survives, and if SN 1987A is typical, supernovae are important cosmological dust producers.
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