| 1. |
- Nilsson, Annika E., et al.
(författare)
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Future narratives
- 2017
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Ingår i: Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic. - Oslo, Norway : Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. ; , s. 109-126
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Nilsson, Annika E., et al.
(författare)
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Towards extended shared socioeconomic pathways : A combined participatory bottom-up and top-down methodology with results from the Barents region
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 45, s. 124-132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major challenge in planning for adaptation to climate change is to assess future development not only in relation to climate but also in relation to social, economic and political changes that affect the capacity for adaptation or otherwise play a role in decision making. One approach is to use scenario methods. This article presents a methodology that combines top-down scenarios and bottom-up approaches to scenario building, with the aim of articulating local so-called extended socio-economic pathways. Specifically, we used the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of the global scenario framework as developed by the climate research community to present boundary conditions about potential global change in workshop discussion with local and regional actors in the Barents region. We relate the results from these workshops to the different elements of the global SSPs and discuss potential and limitations of the method in relation to use in decision making processes.
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| 3. |
- Dannevig, Halvor, et al.
(författare)
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Adaptive capacity to changes in terrestrial ecosystem services amongst primary small-scale resource users in northern Norway and Sweden
- 2015
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Ingår i: Polar Geography. - : TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC. - 1088-937X .- 1939-0513. ; 38:4, s. 271-288
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents results from case studies in which we investigate the interrelations between changes in ecosystem services (ESs) and adaptive capacity among small-scale users of multi-use forest or outfields resources in northern Sweden and Norway. The study presents a framework that utilizes scenarios for changes in ESs under climate change in combination with qualitative interviews with outfield resource users in order to assess their adaptive capacity to the projected changes. The study illustrates that ESs may change significantly under climate change, and in particular affect winter snow and ice conditions, for instance increasing the duration of the growing season but with consequences for pasture quality. We find that given structural constraints, the key factors that influence the selected resource users' adaptive capacity at an individual level include motivation and entrepreneurial inclinations, which are related to the lifestyle choice of making a livelihood based on small-scale and multi-use occupations.
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| 4. |
- Jansson, Roland, et al.
(författare)
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Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - : Resilience Alliance. - 1708-3087. ; 20:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues.
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