| 1. |
- Al-Sarraj, Razaw, et al.
(författare)
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Generalized prediction intervals for treatment effects in random-effects models
- 2019
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Ingår i: Biometrical Journal. - : Wiley. - 0323-3847 .- 1521-4036. ; 61, s. 1242-1257
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article derives generalized prediction intervals for random effects in linear random-effects models. For balanced and unbalanced data in two-way layouts, models are considered with and without interaction. Coverage of the proposed generalized prediction intervals was estimated in a simulation study based on an agricultural field experiment. Generalized prediction intervals were compared with prediction intervals based on the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) procedure and the approximate methods of Satterthwaite and Kenward and Roger. The simulation study showed that coverage of generalized prediction intervals was closer to the nominal level 0.95 than coverage of prediction intervals based on the REML procedure.
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| 2. |
- Andrée O´ Hara, Elisabeth, et al.
(författare)
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An observational study of the dry period length and its relation to milk yield, health, and fertility in two dairy cow breeds
- 2020
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Ingår i: Preventive Veterinary Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-5877 .- 1873-1716. ; 175
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study evaluated associations between dry period length (DPL) in dairy cows and energy-corrected milk (ECM) production, health, and fertility, using a dataset involving 78 577 lactations in cows of two breeds, Swedish Red (SR) and Swedish Holstein (SH). Herds with at least 20 cows and at least 20 % purebred SR and at least 20 % SH during the year 2015/2016 were included in the dataset. Cows were divided into parity groups 2 and 3 or older and DPL was classified into six 10-day groups (30-39 to 80-89 d). Associations between DPL and the outcome variables were assessed with linear and generalized linear mixed models. Production of ECM at the first three test milkings and the 305-d lactation was highest in the 50-59 d and 60-69 d DPL groups, and lowest in the 30-39 d and 80-89 d groups (p<0.001). Mastitis and somatic cell count (SCC) did not differ between DPL groups, except at the third test milking, where cows in the 40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 DPL groups had lower SCC (p<0.001) than cows in the 70-79 and 80-89 d groups. The odds ratio (OR) for retained placenta was 1.9 for cows with 30-39 d DPL relative to cows with 60-69 d DPL. Cows in DPL groups 40-49 d and 50-59 ha d the lowest odds of culling (OR=0.89 and 0.92). The OR for culling in cows with DPL 70-79 d and 80-89 was 1.2 and 1.4, respectively, relative to cows with 60-69 d DPL. The conception rate at first insemination did not among between DPL groups. The SR cows produced less ECM than the SH cows, but had lower SCC and lower OR for mastitis, retained placenta, puerperal paresis, and culling within 90 DIM. Although DPL <40 days or >80 days reduced milk production in early lactation and the 305-d lactation, the estimated additional milk production in the preceding lactation in cows with short DPL compensated for this reduction. A DPL of 40 days did not affect health and fertility in comparison with a conventional 60 d DPL, while a DPL of >70 d was unfavorable due to low milk production, increased risk of culling, and decreased fertility. The response to DPL was not affected by breed or parity.
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| 3. |
- Bengtsson, Stina, et al.
(författare)
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Seasonal Pattern of Lesion Development in Diseased Fraxinus excelsior Infected by Hymenoscyphus pseudoalbidus
- 2014
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ash dieback is a recent widespread disease on ash (Fraxinus sp.) that is causing important economic and ecological losses throughout Europe. The disease is initiated by the ascomycetous fungus Hymenoscyphus pseudoalbidus (anamorph Chalara fraxinea). The main aim of this study was to investigate seasonal pattern of lesion development associated with ash dieback. We present data on the spread of 324 natural lesions in ash shoots, branches and stems surveyed over a 32 month period. Most lesions were active and showed the greatest rate of growth during the summer; however, lesions were active throughout the year. Tree mortality was high, with more than a third of the surveyed trees dying during the study. Although many lesions permanently ceased to develop, the rate at which new lesions emerged was greater than the rate at which lesions entered a resting phase. The most common cause for a lesion going into a permanent state of rest was that it had encountered a branch-base. Genotype analysis showed that multiple infections can occur in a single tree given that different genotypes were identified in different lesions as well as in single lesions. A weak positive correlation was noted between tree health and tree size and a weak negative correlation was noted between tree overall health and lesion activity. The lower limit for H. pseudoalbidus growth in culture was between 4.0 degrees C and 0.5 degrees C.
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| 4. |
- Björkman, Camilla, et al.
(författare)
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Disinfection with hydrated lime may help manage cryptosporidiosis in calves
- 2018
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Ingår i: Veterinary Parasitology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-4017 .- 1873-2550. ; 264, s. 58-63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Diarrhea is common in young calves and is often caused by Cryptosporidium parvum infection. The aim of this study was to investigate if disinfection of calf pens with hydrated lime would reduce contamination of C. parvum oocysts and improve calf health in herds with C. parvum associated diarrhea problems. Four dairy herds with ongoing C. parvum associated calf diarrhea problems each participated in the study over six to seven months. During the study period, all pens/huts for young calves were cleaned according to the usual farm routine before a new calf entered. Hydrated lime was then used to disinfect half of the pens/huts. Diarrhea incidence was recorded by the farmers and by veterinarians, who clinically examined the calves every second month. In total, 402 calves participated in the study. The farmers detected diarrhea in 214 (53%) calves, with similar proportions in calves kept in lime disinfected and control pens. Age at diarrhea onset was significantly higher in lime disinfected pens than in control pens, 9.0 days and 7.6 days, respectively. There was no difference between the groups regarding duration or severity index recorded by the farmers. The body condition score in 6-8 week old calves was significantly higher in calves that had been kept in lime disinfected pens during their first weeks of life, indicating that calves in disinfected pens/huts were less affected by their infections.Faecal samples from 5 to 21 day old calves, were collected on four occasions at each farm (n = 95). Cryptosporidium positive samples were found at all samplings in all four herds. Cryptosporidium spp. was detected in 79 (83%) samples with no difference between lime disinfected and control pens. C. parvum was the dominant species. Two different C. parvum subtypes were found; IIaA16G1R1b in three herds and IIaA16G1R1b_variant in one herd. Only one subtype was found in each herd.Disinfection of calf pens with slaked lime delayed onset of diarrhea and improved the body condition in the calves, but did not affect diarrhea incidence or duration. Although lime disinfection alone will not be sufficient to control Cryptosporidium associated diarrhea in herds with extensive calf diarrhea problems, these results suggest that it can be a valuable complement to other measures.
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| 5. |
- Burauskaite-Harju, Agne, 1981-, et al.
(författare)
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A test for network-wide trends in rainfall extremes
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 32:1, s. 86-94
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Temporal trends in meteorological extremes are often examined by first reducing daily data to annual index values, such as the 95th or 99th percentiles. Here, we report how this idea can be elaborated to provide an efficient test for trends at a network of stations. The initial step is to make separate estimates of tail probabilities of precipitation amounts for each combination of station and year by fitting a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) to data above a user-defined threshold. The resulting time series of annual percentile estimates are subsequently fed into a multivariate Mann-Kendall (MK) test for monotonic trends. We performed extensive simulations using artificially generated precipitation data and noted that the power of tests for temporal trends was substantially enhanced when ordinary percentiles were substituted for GPD percentiles. Furthermore, we found that the trend detection was robust to misspecification of the extreme value distribution. An advantage of the MK test is that it can accommodate non-linear trends, and it can also take into account the dependencies between stations in a network. To illustrate our approach, we used long time series of precipitation data from a network of stations in The Netherlands.
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| 6. |
- Burauskaite-Harju, Agne, et al.
(författare)
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Statistical framework for assessing trends in sub-daily and daily precipitation extremes
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Extreme precipitation events vary with regard to duration, and hence sub-daily data do not necessarily exhibit the same trends as daily data. Here, we present a framework for a comprehensive yet easily undertaken statistical analysis of long-term trends in daily and sub-daily extremes. A parametric peaks-over-threshold model is employed to estimate annual percentiles for data of different temporal resolution. Moreover, a trend-durationfrequency table is used to summarize how the statistical significance of trends in annual percentiles varies with the temporal resolution of the underlying data and the severity of the extremes. The proposed framework also includes nonparametric tests that can integrate information about nonlinear monotonic trends at a network of stations. To illustrate our methodology, we use climate model output data from Kalmar, Sweden, and observational data from Vancouver, Canada. In both these cases, the results show different trends for moderate and high extremes, and also a clear difference in the statistical evidence of trends for daily and sub-daily data.
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| 7. |
- Chenais, Erika, et al.
(författare)
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Quantitative assessment of social and economic impact of African swine fever outbreaks in northern Uganda
- 2017
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Ingår i: Preventive Veterinary Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-5877 .- 1873-1716. ; 144, s. 134-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important pig diseases, causing high case fatality rate and trade restrictions upon reported outbreaks. In Uganda, a low-income country with the largest pig population in East Africa, ASF is endemic.Animal disease impact is multidimensional and include social and economic impact along the value chain. In low-income settings, this impact keep people poor and push those that have managed to escape poverty back again. If the diseases can be controlled, their negative consequences can be mitigated. However, to successfully argue for investment in disease control, its cost-benefits need to be demonstrated. One part in the cost-benefit equations is disease impact quantification. The objective of this study was therefore to investigate the socio-economic impact of ASF outbreaks at household level in northern Uganda.In a longitudinal study, structured interviews with two hundred, randomly selected, pig-keeping households were undertaken three times with a six month interval. Questions related to family and pig herd demographics, pig trade and pig business.Associations between ASF outbreaks and economic and social impact variables were evaluated using linear regression models. The study showed that pigs were kept in extreme low-input-low-output farming systems involving only small monetary investments. Yearly incidence of ASF on household level was 19%. Increasing herd size was positively associated with higher economic output. The interaction between ASF outbreaks and the herd size showed that ASF outbreaks were negatively associated with economic output at the second interview occasion and with one out of two economic impact variables at the third interview occasion. No significant associations between the social impact variables included in the study and ASF outbreaks could be established. Trade and consumption of sick and dead pigs were coping strategies used to minimize losses of capital and animal protein.The results indicate that causality of social and economic impact of ASF outbreaks in smallholder systems is complex. Pigs are mostly kept as passive investments rather than active working capital, complicating economic analyses and further disqualifying disease control arguments based only on standard economic models. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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| 8. |
- Edvardsson Rasmussen, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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A randomized study on the effect of an extended voluntary waiting period in primiparous dairy cows on fertility, health, and culling during first and second lactation
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Dairy Science. - 0022-0302 .- 1525-3198. ; 106, s. 8897-8909
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- When the voluntary waiting period (VWP), defined as the days between calving and when the cow is eligible to receive the first insemination, is extended, high-yielding dairy cows may have better opportunities to regain energy balance before first insemination. This study investigated the effect of an extended (145–215 days in milk [DIM], n = 280) or conventional (25–95 DIM, n = 251) VWP treatment on fertility, disease incidence, and culling rate in cows during their first lactation. The cows were also followed through a second lactation without intervention regarding VWP, during which the farmers could decide when they wished to start the inseminations. This was done in a randomized-controlled study on 16 high-yielding commercial herds in southern Sweden, containing a total of 531 primiparous cows of the Holstein and Red Dairy Cattle breeds. Data from the Swedish national dairy herd recording scheme collected between August 2018 and September 2021 were used in the analysis, including records on breed, calvings, estrus intensity, inseminations, disease, somatic cell count, culling date, and culling reason. During first lactation, more cows receiving the extended VWP treatment showed strong estrus intensity (score 4–5, 55% vs. 48%) and fewer showed moderate estrus intensity (score 3, 35% vs. 43%) at first insemination, compared with cows receiving the conventional VWP treatment. First service conception rate (FSCR) was higher (67% vs. 51%) and number of inseminations per conception (NINS) was lower (1.6 vs. 2.0) during the first lactation for cows receiving the extended compared with the conventional VWP treatment. For disease incidence rate or culling rate expressed as number of events per cow-time in the study, we found no differences between the cows receiving the 2 VWP treatments in any lactation. Calving to first service interval during second lactation was longer (86 vs. 74 d) for cows with extended compared with conventional VWP. In conclusion, primiparous cows with extended VWP showed improved reproductive functions, in the form of higher estrus intensity, greater FSCR, and lower NINS, during the first lactation. However, we observed no apparent effect on these fertility measures during the following lactation (without VWP intervention) and no differences in disease prevalence or culling between cows receiving the 2 different VWP treatments in either lactation. Compliance with the planned VWP treatment was lower for cows with planned extended compared with planned conventional VWP treatment. We studied the “intention-to-treat” effect (i.e., the results for all cows randomized to each treatment regardless of whether the planned VWP was achieved or not) to identify any bias arising due to degree of compliance. However, we found no difference in culling rate between cows randomized to an extended VWP compared with those randomized to a conventional VWP. These findings can be used to support management decisions on VWP length in high-yielding dairy herds.
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| 9. |
- Eklöf, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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Brownification on hold : What traditional analyses miss in extended surface water records
- 2021
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Ingår i: Water Research. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0043-1354 .- 1879-2448. ; 203
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Widespread increases in organic matter (OM) content of surface waters, as measured by color and organic carbon (OC), are a major issue for aquatic ecosystems. Long-term monitoring programs revealed the issue of “brownification”, with climate change, land cover changes and recovery from acidification all suspected to be major drivers or contributing factors. While many studies have focused on the impact and drivers, fewer have followed up on whether brownification is continuing. As time-series of OM data lengthen, conventional data-analysis approaches miss important information on when changes occur. To better identify temporal OM patterns during three decades (1990–2020) of systematic monitoring, we used generalized additive models to analyze 164 time-series from watercourses located across Sweden. Increases in OC that were widespread during 1990–2010 ceased a decade ago, and most color increases ceased 20 years ago. These findings highlight the need to reassess the understanding of brownification's spatial and temporal extent, as well as the tools used to analyze lengthening time series.
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| 10. |
- Eklöf, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of Forestry on Total and Methyl-Mercury in Surface Waters : Distinguishing Effects of Logging and Site Preparation
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 48:9, s. 4690-4698
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Forestry operations can increase the export of mercury (both total and methyl) to surface waters. However, little is known about the relative contribution of different forestry practices. We address this question using a paired-catchment study that distinguishes the effects of site preparation from the antecedent logging. Runoff water from three catchments, two harvested and one untreated control, was sampled biweekly during one year prior to logging, two years after logging, and three years after site preparation. The logging alone did not significantly increase the concentrations of either total or methyl-mercury in runoff, but export increased by 50-70% in one of the harvested catchments as a consequence of increased runoff volume. The combined effects of logging and site preparation increased total and methyl-mercury concentrations by 30-50% relative to preharvest conditions in both treated catchments. The more pronounced concentration effect after site preparation compared to logging could be related to site preparation being conducted during summer. This caused more soil disturbance than logging, which was done during winter with snow covering the ground. The results suggest that the cumulative impact of forest harvest on catchment mercury outputs depends on when and how forestry operations are implemented.
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