| 1. |
- Abraham, Nerilie, et al.
(författare)
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The third phase of the PAGES 2k network
- 2017
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Ingår i: Past Global Changes Magazine. - : Past Global Changes (PAGES). - 2411-605X .- 2411-9180. ; 25, s. 71-74
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The past 2000 years (the “2k” interval) provides critical context for our understanding of recent anthropogenic forcing of the climate, as well as baseline information about Earth’s natural climate variability. It also provides opportunities to improve the interpretation of paleoclimate proxy observations, and to perform out-of-sample evaluation of the climate and earth system models that are used to generate projections of future climate change
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| 2. |
- Abram, Nerilie J., et al.
(författare)
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Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 536:7617, s. 411-418
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.
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| 3. |
- Abram, Nerilie, et al.
(författare)
-
Understanding the climate of the past 2000 years: Phase 3of the PAGES 2k Network
- 2017
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Ingår i: Past Global Changes Magazine. - : Past Global Changes (PAGES). - 2411-605X .- 2411-9180. ; 25:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The PAGES 2k Network was created with the aim of reconstructing changes in regional and global surface climate over the past 2000 years. During Phases 1 (2008-2013) and 2 (2014-2016), regional and trans-regional groupings focused on building reconstructions for terrestrial regions and the oceans. The conclusion of Phase 2 coincided with the release of an open and transparent global database of temperature-sensitive proxies spanning the Common Era (Fig. 1; PAGES 2k Consortium 2017). This product will be followed up by a special issue of Climate of the Past, entitled “Climate of the past 2000 years: regional and trans-regional syntheses”
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| 4. |
- Neukom, Raphael, et al.
(författare)
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Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 12:8, s. 643-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300-1800 CE) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.
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