| 1. |
- Aggestam, Karin, et al.
(author)
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Depoliticising water conflict. The quest for functional peacebuilding in the Red Sea-Dead-Sea-Water-Conveyance project.
- 2016
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 61:7, s. 1302-1312
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article analyses the nexus of technocracy-peacebuilding and its implications on water conflicts and hydropolitics. It is a conceptual exploration, which advances an interdisciplinary approach by combining theories from two distinct research fields: peacebuilding and transboundary water management. It probes the argument that synergies between water management, development and peacebuilding frequently lead to technocratic and functional solutions. As empirical case illustration, the transboundary project, the Red Sea-Dead Sea Water Conveyance (RSDSWC) is analysed regarding its peacebuilding and peace promoting potential. Three concluding remarks are drawn from the conceptual and empirical analysis. First, strong emphasis on technocratic solutions is inclined to favour supply-oriented options rather than solutions based on ethics of sustainable development and right-based distribution. Second, functional solutions to water conflicts downplay at times complex hydro-political and asymmetrical relations between adversaries. Third, wider trends of privatisation in the water sector coincide with similar developments in the field of peacebuilding where new transnational actors are gaining influence as “new peacemakers”, which are likely to have long-term consequences on power relations and the resolution of water conflict.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Alonso Vicario, S., et al.
(author)
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Unravelling the influence of human behaviour on reducing casualties during flood evacuation
- 2020
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:14, s. 2359-2375
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Floods are the natural hazards that are causing the most deaths worldwide. Flood early warning systems are one of the most cost-efficient methods to reduce death rates, triggering decisions about the evacuation of exposed population. Although previous studies have investigated the effect of human behaviours on evacuation processes, studies analysing a combination of behaviours, flood onset and warning timing are limited. Our objective is to explore how changes on the aforementioned factors can affect casualties. This is done within a modelling framework that includes an agent-based model, a hydraulic model, and a traffic model, which is implemented for the case study of Orvieto (Italy). The results show that the number of casualties is most impacted by people's behaviour. Besides, we found that a delay of 30 min in releasing the warning can boost the number of casualties up to six times. These results may help managers to propose effective emergency plans.
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| 4. |
- Arheimer, Berit, et al.
(author)
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The IAHS Science for Solutions decade, with Hydrology Engaging Local People IN a Global world (HELPING)
- 2024
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The new scientific decade (2023-2032) of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) aims at searching for sustainable solutions to undesired water conditions - may it be too little, too much or too polluted. Many of the current issues originate from global change, while solutions to problems must embrace local understanding and context. The decade will explore the current water crises by searching for actionable knowledge within three themes: global and local interactions, sustainable solutions and innovative cross-cutting methods. We capitalise on previous IAHS Scientific Decades shaping a trilogy; from Hydrological Predictions (PUB) to Change and Interdisciplinarity (Panta Rhei) to Solutions (HELPING). The vision is to solve fundamental water-related environmental and societal problems by engaging with other disciplines and local stakeholders. The decade endorses mutual learning and co-creation to progress towards UN sustainable development goals. Hence, HELPING is a vehicle for putting science in action, driven by scientists working on local hydrology in coordination with local, regional, and global processes.
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| 5. |
- Bengtsson, Lars
(author)
-
Groundwater and meltwater in the snowmelt induced runoff : [Eau souterraine et eau de fusion dans l'écoulement résultant de la fonte de la neige]
- 1982
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 27:2, s. 147-158
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The snowmelt runoff process from small basins is discussed. A differentiation is made between overland flow in the snowpack and groundwater flow induced by infiltrating meltwater. The effect of variations of the snowmelt intensity on streamflow is studied. It is shown that the runoff is high from the first day of snowmelt runoff if the streamflow is caused by overland flow, and that there are pronounced peaks every day, which almost correspond with the snowmelt intensity during daytime. Streamflow originating from groundwater, on the other hand, increases continuously during the snowmelt and shows only small daily peaks in the flow. Simultaneous overland and groundwater flow are also discussed. Observed runoff hydrographs from small basins are analysed in some detail. For the open fields studied the runoff shows the typical character of overland flow. For a rather large forested area the surface runoff also constitutes an important part of the runoff, but the groundwater baseflow is considerable.
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| 6. |
- Bengtsson, Lars, et al.
(author)
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Urban snowmelt and runoff in northern Sweden
- 1992
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 37:3, s. 263-275
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Snowmelt and runoff in urban areas in Lulea, north Sweden, are discussed and compared with rural conditions. The uneven snow distribution in cities is quantified. Energy fluxes at the snow surface in different environments are estimated. It is shown that, mainly because of increased absorbed radiative energy in the snow, the daily melt is about 10 mm higher in the city than in rural environments. In the course of prolonged snowmelt, the infiltration capacity of most soils in urban areas becomes so reduced that melt-induced peak flows from grassed and gravelled surfaces are similar to those from asphalted surfaces. When rain falls on snow, overland flow may take place from the entire area of a basin.
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| 7. |
- Berndtsson, Ronny
(author)
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Application des équations d'infiltration à un bassin versant avec des grands variabilités spatiales de l'infiltration
- 1987
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 32:3, s. 399-413
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The infiltration equations according to Horton and Philip are applied to 52 double-ring infiltrometer tests performed in a small semiarid catchment in northern Tunisia. Spatial variability in infiltration properties is analysed as regards the coefficients of the two equations. Different geomorphological zones display different infiltration characteristics even if there is large variability within each zone and no clear statistical difference between the zones. Statistical properties of the coefficients of Horton's and Philip's equations describing cumulative infiltration are presented and discussed. The statistical distribution of the coefficients seems to be well approximated by an exponential function.
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| 8. |
- Berndtsson, Ronny, et al.
(author)
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Educating the compassionate water engineer - a remedy to avoid future water management failures?
- 2005
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 50:1, s. 7-16
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The number of local and regional-scale water management failures appears steadily to increase despite an apparently higher level of engineering solutions at hand. The objective of this paper is to examine the challenges the existing education system needs to meet in order to produce water engineers capable of responding to the complexity of contemporary and future water problems in relation to societal needs. The next generation of water engineers may stay in their professional functions until 2040 or 2050. It is likely that in this period more critical water management and environmental problems will be experienced than have been encountered so far. The question then arises whether the present water engineers have the proper background education to understand environmental, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic problems to resolve related water management problems. Future water engineers must, to a greater extent, include socio-economic consequences in planned and/or designed water management systems and convey greater transparency regarding risks and societal effects.
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| 9. |
- Berndtsson, Ronny, et al.
(author)
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Soil water, soil chemical and crop variations in a clay soil
- 1996
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 41:2, s. 171-178
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Spatial properties of field soils vary in a complex manner. Especially in arid and semiarid areas, this variability affects plant quality and crop production. An experimental field plot was extensively sampled regarding soil water (378 gravimetrical samples), soil chemical content (314 samples), and crop yield and chemical content (26 samples) at the Cherfech agricultural field research station in Tunisia. Geostatistical analyses were made to gain a better understanding of the in situ variability of soil water, soil chemical and crop properties. Ranges of correlation were found to vary over distances between 5 and over 40 m. Nugget and sill values for semivariograms were almost an order of magnitude larger for crop samples compared to soil samples. The crop yield components appeared to have larger variability as compared to crop chemical components.
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| 10. |
- Beven, Keith
(author)
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Facets of uncertainty : epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication
- 2016
-
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 61:9, s. 1652-1665
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.
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| 11. |
- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(author)
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
-
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
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| 12. |
- Bouksila, F., et al.
(author)
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Electromagnetic induction prediction of soil salinity and groundwater properties in a Tunisian Saharan oasis
- 2012
-
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 57:7, s. 1473-1486
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Electromagnetic induction measurements (EM) were taken in a saline gypsiferous soil of the Saharan-climate Fatnassa oasis (Tunisia) to predict the electrical conductivity of saturated soil extract (ECe) and shallow groundwater properties (depth, Dgw, and electrical conductivity, ECgw) using various models. The soil profile was sampled at 0.2 m depth intervals to 1.2 m for physical and chemical analysis. The best input to predict the log-transformed soil salinity (lnECe) in surface (0-0.2 m) soil was the EMh/EMv ratio. For the 0-0.6 m soil depth interval, the performance of multiple linear regression (MLR) models to predict lnECe was weaker using data collected over various seasons and years (R-a(2) = 0.66 and MSE = 0.083 dS m(-1)) as compared to those collected during the same period (R-a(2) = 0.97, MSE = 0.007 dS m(-1)). For similar seasonal conditions, for the Dgw-EMv relationship, R-2 was 0.88 and the MSE was 0.02 m for Dgw prediction. For a validation subset, the R-2 was 0.85 and the MSE was 0.03 m. Soil salinity was predicted more accurately when groundwater properties were used instead of soil moisture with EM variables as input in the MLR.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Bouksila, Fethi, et al.
(author)
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Soil water content and salinity determination using different dielectric methods in saline gypsiferous soil
- 2008
-
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 53:1, s. 253-265
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Abstract in UndeterminedMeasurements of dielectric permittivity and electrical conductivity were taken in a saline gypsiferous soil collected from southern Tunisia. Both time domain reflectometry (TDR) and the new WET sensor based on frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) were used. Seven different moistening solutions were used with electrical conductivities of 0.0053-14 dS m(-1). Different models for describing the observed relationships between dielectric permittivity (K-a) and water content (theta), and bulk electrical conductivity (ECa) and pore water electrical conductivity (ECp) were tested and evaluated. The commonly used K-a-theta models by Topp et al. (1980) and Ledieu et al. (1986) cannot be recommended for the WET sensor. With these models, the RMSE and the mean relative error of the predicted theta were about 0.04 m(3) m(-3) and 19% for TDR and 0.08 m(3) m(-3) and 54% for WET sensor measurements, respectively. Using the Hilhorst (2000) model for ECp predictions, the RMSE was 1.16 dS m(-1) and 4.15 dS m(-1) using TDR and the WET sensor, respectively. The WET sensor could give similar accuracy to TDR if calibrated values of the soil parameter were used instead of standard values.
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| 15. |
- Breinl, Korbinian
(author)
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Driving a lumped hydrological model with precipitation output from weather generators of different complexity
- 2016
-
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 61:8, s. 1395-1414
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper deals with the question of whether a lumped hydrological model driven with lumped daily precipitation time series from a univariate single-site weather generator can produce equally good results compared to using a multivariate multi-site weather generator, where synthetic precipitation is first generated at multiple sites and subsequently lumped. Three different weather generators were tested: a univariate “Richardson type” model, an adapted univariate Richardson type model with an improved reproduction of the autocorrelation of precipitation amounts and a semi-parametric multi-site weather generator. The three modelling systems were evaluated in two Alpine study areas by comparing the hydrological output with respect to monthly and daily statistics as well as extreme design flows. The application of a univariate Richardson type weather generator to lumped precipitation time series requires additional attention. Established parametric distribution functions for single-site precipitation turned out to be unsuitable for lumped precipitation time series and led to a large bias in the hydrological simulations. Combining a multi-site weather generator with a hydrological model produced the least bias.
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| 16. |
- Cao, Feifei, et al.
(author)
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The input signal to a carbonate aquifer highlights recharge processes and climate evolution under temperate Atlantic conditions
- 2022
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 67:8, s. 1238-1252
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The objectives of this study are to characterize the input signal of a shallow carbonate aquifer in northeastern France and to clarify the recharge and groundwater mineralization processes, by analysing the chemical and isotopic (δ18O, δ2H) composition of rain and groundwater. The groundwater isotopic signature was very close to the calculated local meteoric water line and showed a narrow range, which is explained by the buffer effect of the matrix-dominated chalk aquifer. Nevertheless, intensive fracture networks can exist at local scale and lead to rapid aquifer response to rainfall, as attested by observed large variations in groundwater isotopic and chemical signatures at one specific site. Main factors controlling the groundwater mineralization are highlighted, including the input signal, water-rock interactions and human activities. Moreover, groundwater isotopic signatures are related to groundwater ages and historical climate conditions, showing that groundwater isotopic signal could also be used as a record of climate changes.
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| 17. |
- Ceola, Serena, et al.
(author)
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Adaptation of water resources systems to changing society and environment : a statement by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
- 2016
-
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 61:16, s. 2803-2817
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We explore how to address the challenges of adaptation of water resources systems under changing conditions by supporting flexible, resilient and low-regret solutions, coupled with on-going monitoring and evaluation. This will require improved understanding of the linkages between biophysical and social aspects in order to better anticipate the possible future co-evolution of water systems and society. We also present a call to enhance the dialogue and foster the actions of governments, the international scientific community, research funding agencies and additional stakeholders in order to develop effective solutions to support water resources systems adaptation. Finally, we call the scientific community to a renewed and unified effort to deliver an innovative message to stakeholders. Water science is essential to resolve the water crisis, but the effectiveness of solutions depends, inter alia, on the capability of scientists to deliver a new, coherent and technical vision for the future development of water systems.
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| 18. |
- Chen, Y. D., et al.
(author)
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Regional analysis of low flow using L-moments for Dongjiang basin, South China
- 2006
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 51:6, s. 1051-1064
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Dongjiang water has been the key source of water supplies for Hong Kong and its neighbouring cities in the Pearl River Delta in South China since the mid-1960s. Rapid economic development and population growth in this region have caused serious concerns over the adequacy of the quantity and quality of water withdrawn from the Dongjiang River in the future. Information on the magnitude and frequency of low flows in the basin is needed for planning of water resources at present and in the near future. The L-moment method is used to analyse the regional frequency of low flows, since recent studies have shown that it is superior to other methods that have been used previously, and is now being adopted by many organizations worldwide. In this study, basin-wide analysis of low flows is conducted for Dongjiang basin using five distributions: generalized logistic, generalized extreme value, lognormal, Pearson type III and generalized Pareto. Each of these has three parameters estimated by the L-moment method. The discordancy index and homogeneity testing show that 14 out of the 16 study sites belong to a homogenous region; these are used for further analysis. Based on the L-moment ratios diagram, the Hosking and Wallis goodness-of-fit statistical criterion and the L-kurtosis criterion, the three-parameter lognormal distribution is identified as the most appropriate distribution for the homogeneous study region. The regional low-flow estimates for each return period are obtained using the index flood procedure. Examination of the observed and simulated low flows by regional frequency analysis shows a good agreement in general, and the results may satisfy practical application. Furthermore, the regional low-flow relationship between mean annual 7-day low flows and basin area is developed using linear regression, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of low flows of desired return periods for ungauged catchments.
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| 19. |
- Ciullo, Alessio, et al.
(author)
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Socio-hydrological modelling of flood-risk dynamics : comparing the resilience of green and technological systems
- 2017
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 62:6, s. 880-891
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This work aims to provide a dynamic assessment of flood risk and community resilience by explicitly accounting for variable human behaviour, e.g. risk-taking and awareness-raising attitudes. We consider two different types of socio-hydrological systems: green systems, whereby societies deal with risk only via non-structural measures, and technological systems, whereby risk is dealt with also by structural measures, such as levees. A stylized model of human-flood interactions is first compared to real-world data collected at two test sites (People's Republic of Bangladesh and the city of Rome, Italy) and then used to explore plausible trajectories of flood risk. The results show that flood risk in technological systems tends to be significantly lower than in green systems. However, technological systems may undergo catastrophic events, which lead to much higher losses. Furthermore, green systems prove to be more resilient than technological ones, which makes them more capable of withstanding environmental and social changes.
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| 20. |
- Costa, Denis Duda, et al.
(author)
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Long-term relationships between climate oscillation and basin-scale hydrological variability during rainy season in eastern Northeast Brazil
- 2018
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 63:11, s. 1636-1652
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The high variability in the hydrological regime of the Eastern Hydrological Region (EHR) of Northeast Brazil often results in floods and droughts, leading to serious socio-economic issues. Therefore, this work aimed to investigate connections between spatiotemporal hydrological variability of the EHR and large-scale climate phenomena. Multivariate statistical techniques were applied to relate climate indices with hydrological variables within two representative river basins in the EHR. The results indicated a multi-annual relationship between the state of the sea surface temperature of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and anomalous hydrological variability in the basins. In addition, the northern Tropical Atlantic conditions were shown to play an important role in modulating the long-term variability of the hydrological response of the basins, whilst only extreme ENSO anomalies seemed to affect the rainy season. This knowledge is an important step towards long-term prediction of hydrological conditions and contributes to the improvement of water resources planning and management in the EHR.
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| 21. |
- Crochemore, Louise, et al.
(author)
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Lessons learnt from checking the quality of openly accessible river flow data worldwide
- 2019
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Advances in open data science serve large-scale model developments and, subsequently, hydroclimate services. Local river flow observations are key in hydrology but data sharing remains limited due to unclear quality, or to political, economic or infrastructure reasons. This paper provides methods for quality checking openly accessible river-flow time series. Availability, outliers, homogeneity and trends were assessed in 21 586 time series from 13 data providers worldwide. We found a decrease in data availability since the 1980s, scarce open information in southern Asia, the Middle East and North and Central Africa, and significant river-flow trends in Africa, Australia, southwest Europe and Southeast Asia. We distinguish numerical outliers from high-flow peaks, and to integrate all investigated quality characteristics in a composite indicator. We stress the need to maintain existing gauging networks, and highlight opportunities in extending existing global databases, understanding drivers for trends and inhomogeneity, and in innovative acquisition methods in data-scarce regions.Keywords: open data, river flow, global hydrology, quality control, time series
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| 22. |
- Davies, J., et al.
(author)
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Comparison of a Multiple Interacting Pathways model with a classical kinematic wave subsurface flow solution
- 2012
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 57:2, s. 203-216
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A discrete random particle representation of flow processes on shallow hillslopes is compared with solutions of the classical kinematic wave representation. The discrete Multiple Interacting Pathways (MIPs) model has the potential to represent the effects of complex heterogeneities and preferential flow pathways. It is shown that, under shared assumptions, the MIPs model can produce equivalent flow predictions to a standard kinematic wave realization. The MIPs model is then used to further explore the relationship between celerity and water velocity by introducing a velocity distribution, which represents the range of possible flow pathways, and therefore is representative of the nature of heterogeneity (or lack of it within a homogeneous case) within the subsurface. It is shown that, whilst flux constraints can be satisfied with a distribution of flow velocities, it can result in changes to the hydrograph. Multiple pathways also have an influence on the residence times for input increments, output increments and storage in the system.
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| 23. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(author)
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Analysis of the effects of levee heightening on flood propagation : example of the River Po, Italy
- 2009
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 54:6, s. 1007-1017
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The effects of human activities on flood propagation, during the period 1878-2005, in a 190-km reach of the middle-lower portion of the River Po (Northern Italy) are investigated. A series of topographical, hydrological and inundation data were collected for the 1878 River Po geometry and the June 1879 flood event, characterised by an inundated area of 432 km(2). The aim of the study is two-fold: (1) to show the applicability of flood inundation models in reconstructing historical inundation events, and (2) to assess the effects of human activities during the last century on flood propagation in the middle-lower portion of the River Po. Numerical simulations were performed by coupling a two-dimensional finite element code, TELEMAC-2D, with a one-dimensional finite difference code, HEC-RAS.
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| 24. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(author)
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Flood-plain mapping : a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches
- 2010
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 55:3, s. 364-376
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.
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| 25. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(author)
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Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin : a review
- 2011
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 56:2, s. 199-211
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A critical discussion of recent studies that analysed the effects of climate change on the water resources of the River Nile Basin (RNB) is presented. First, current water-related issues on the RNB showing the particular vulnerability to environmental changes of this large territory are described. Second, observed trends in hydrological data (such as temperature, precipitation, river discharge) as described in the recent literature are presented. Third, recent modelling exercises to quantify the effects of climate changes on the RNB are critically analysed. The many sources of uncertainty affecting the entire modelling chain, including climate modelling, spatial and temporal downscaling, hydrological modelling and impact assessment are also discussed. In particular, two contrasting issues are discussed: the need to better recognize and characterize the uncertainty of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the RNB, and the necessity to effectively support decision-makers and propose suitable adaptation strategies and measures. The principles of a code of good practice in climate change impact studies based on the explicit handling of various sources of uncertainty are outlined.
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