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1.	Ahlkrona, Josefin, et al. (författare) Accuracy of the zeroth- and second-order shallow-ice approximation - numerical and theoretical results 2013 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 6:6, s. 2135-2152 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract In ice sheet modelling, the shallow-ice approximation (SIA) and second-order shallow-ice approximation (SOSIA) schemes are approaches to approximate the solution of the full Stokes equations governing ice sheet dynamics. This is done by writing the solution to the full Stokes equations as an asymptotic expansion in the aspect ratio epsilon, i.e. the quotient between a characteristic height and a characteristic length of the ice sheet. SIA retains the zeroth-order terms and SOSIA the zeroth-, first-, and second-order terms in the expansion. Here, we evaluate the order of accuracy of SIA and SOSIA by numerically solving a two-dimensional model problem for different values of epsilon, and comparing the solutions with afinite element solution to the full Stokes equations obtained from Elmer/Ice. The SIA and SOSIA solutions are also derived analytically for the model problem. For decreasing epsilon, the computed errors in SIA and SOSIA decrease, but not always in the expected way. Moreover, they depend critically on a parameter introduced to avoid singularities in Glen's flow law in the ice model. This is because the assumptions behind the SIA and SOSIA neglect a thick, high-viscosity boundary layer near the ice surface. The sensitivity to the parameter is explained by the analytical solutions. As a verification of the comparison technique, the SIA and SOSIA solutions for a fluid with Newtonian rheology are compared to the solutions by Elmer/Ice, with results agreeing very well with theory.
2.	Andersson, C., et al. (författare) MATCH-SALSA - Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry model coupled to the SALSA aerosol microphysics model - Part 1: Model description and evaluation 2015 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 8:2, s. 171-189 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract © Author(s) 2015. We have implemented the sectional aerosol dynamics model SALSA (Sectional Aerosol module for Large Scale Applications) in the European-scale chemistry-transport model MATCH (Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry). The new model is called MATCH-SALSA. It includes aerosol microphysics, with several formulations for nucleation, wet scavenging and condensation. The model reproduces observed higher particle number concentration (PNC) in central Europe and lower concentrations in remote regions. The modeled PNC size distribution peak occurs at the same or smaller particle size as the observed peak at four measurement sites spread across Europe. Total PNC is underestimated at northern and central European sites and accumulation-mode PNC is underestimated at all investigated sites. The low nucleation rate coefficient used in this study is an important reason for the underestimation. On the other hand, the model performs well for particle mass (including secondary inorganic aerosol components), while elemental and organic carbon concentrations are underestimated at many of the sites. Further development is needed, primarily for treatment of secondary organic aerosol, in terms of biogenic emissions and chemical transformation. Updating the biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) scheme will likely have a large impact on modeled PM2.5 and also affect the model performance for PNC through impacts on nucleation and condensation.
3.	Andersson, Emma, 1987, et al. (författare) Coupling aerosol optics to the MATCH (v5.5.0) chemical transport model and the SALSA (v1) aerosol microphysics module 2016 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 9:5, s. 1803-1826 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract A new aerosol-optics model is implemented in which realistic morphologies and mixing states are assumed, especially for black carbon particles. The model includes both external and internal mixing of all chemical species, it treats externally mixed black carbon as fractal aggregates, and it accounts for inhomogeneous internal mixing of black carbon by use of a novel "core-grey-shell" model. Simulated results of aerosol optical properties, such as aerosol optical depth, backscattering coefficients and the Angstrom exponent, as well as radiative fluxes are computed with the new optics model and compared with results from an older optics-model version that treats all particles as externally mixed homogeneous spheres. The results show that using a more detailed description of particle morphology and mixing state impacts the aerosol optical properties to a degree of the same order of magnitude as the effects of aerosol-microphysical processes. For instance, the aerosol optical depth computed for two cases in 2007 shows a relative difference between the two optics models that varies over the European region between 28 and 18 %, while the differences caused by the inclusion or omission of the aerosol-microphysical processes range from 50 to 37 %. This is an important finding, suggesting that a simple optics model coupled to a chemical transport model can introduce considerable errors affecting radiative fluxes in chemistry-climate models, compromising comparisons of model results with remote sensing observations of aerosols, and impeding the assimilation of satellite products for aerosols into chemical-transport models.
4.	Andersson, Emma, 1987, et al. (författare) Methodology for evaluating lateral boundary conditions in the regional chemical transport model MATCH (v5.5.0) using combined satellite and ground-based observations 2015 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 8:11, s. 3747-3763 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Hemispheric transport of air pollutants can have a significant impact on regional air quality, as well as on the effect of air pollutants on regional climate. An accurate representation of hemispheric transport in regional chemical transport models (CTMs) depends on the specification of the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). This study focuses on the methodology for evaluating LBCs of two moderately long-lived trace gases, carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O-3), for the European model domain and over a 7-year period, 2006-2012. The method is based on combining the use of satellite observations at the lateral boundary with the use of both satellite and in situ ground observations within the model domain. The LBCs are generated by the global European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - West (EMEP MSC-W) model; they are evaluated at the lateral boundaries by comparison with satellite observations of the Terra-MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) sensor (CO) and the Aura-OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) sensor (O-3). The LBCs from the global model lie well within the satellite uncertainties for both CO and O-3. The biases increase below 700 hPa for both species. However, the satellite retrievals below this height are strongly influenced by the a priori data; hence, they are less reliable than at, e.g. 500 hPa. CO is, on average, underestimated by the global model, while O-3 tends to be overestimated during winter, and underestimated during summer. A regional CTM is run with (a) the validated monthly climatological LBCs from the global model; (b) dynamical LBCs from the global model; and (c) constant LBCs based on in situ ground observations near the domain boundary. The results are validated against independent satellite retrievals from the Aqua-AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder) sensor at 500 hPa, and against in situ ground observations from the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) network. It is found that (i) the use of LBCs from the global model gives reliable in-domain results for O-3 and CO at 500 hPa. Taking AIRS retrievals as a reference, the use of these LBCs substantially improves spatial pattern correlations in the free troposphere as compared to results obtained with fixed LBCs based on ground observations. Also, the magnitude of the bias is reduced by the new LBCs for both trace gases. This demonstrates that the validation methodology based on using satellite observations at the domain boundary is sufficiently robust in the free troposphere. (ii) The impact of the LBCs on ground concentrations is significant only at locations in close proximity to the domain boundary. As the satellite data near the ground mainly reflect the a priori estimate used in the retrieval procedure, they are of little use for evaluating the effect of LBCs on ground concentrations. Rather, the evaluation of ground-level concentrations needs to rely on in situ ground observations. (iii) The improvements of dynamic over climatological LBCs become most apparent when using accumulated ozone over threshold 40 ppb (AOT40) as a metric. Also, when focusing on ground observations taken near the inflow boundary of the model domain, one finds that the use of dynamical LBCs yields a more accurate representation of the seasonal variation, as well as of the variability of the trace gas concentrations on shorter timescales.
5.	Baranizadeh, Elham, et al. (författare) Implementation of state-of-the-art ternary new-particle formation scheme to the regional chemical transport model PMCAMx-UF in Europe 2016 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 9:8, s. 2741-2754 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The particle formation scheme within PMCAMx-UF, a three-dimensional chemical transport model, was updated with particle formation rates for the ternary H2SO4-NH3-H2O pathway simulated by the Atmospheric Cluster Dynamics Code (ACDC) using quantum chemical input data. The model was applied over Europe for May 2008, during which the EUCAARI-LONGREX (European Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions-Long-Range Experiment) campaign was carried out, providing aircraft vertical profiles of aerosol number concentrations. The updated model reproduces the observed number concentrations of particles larger than 4 nm within 1 order of magnitude throughout the atmospheric column. This agreement is encouraging considering the fact that no semi-empirical fitting was needed to obtain realistic particle formation rates. The cloud adjustment scheme for modifying the photolysis rate profiles within PMCAMx-UF was also updated with the TUV (Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible) radiative-transfer model. Results show that, although the effect of the new cloud adjustment scheme on total number concentrations is small, enhanced new-particle formation is predicted near cloudy regions. This is due to the enhanced radiation above and in the vicinity of the clouds, which in turn leads to higher production of sulfuric acid. The sensitivity of the results to including emissions from natural sources is also discussed.
6.	Bauwens, Maite, et al. (författare) A Nonlinear Multi-Proxy Model Based on Manifold Learning to Reconstruct Water Temperature from High Resolution Trace Element Profiles in Biogenic Carbonates 2010 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 3:3, s. 653-667 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract A long standing problem in paleoceanography concerns the reconstruction of water temperature from δ18O carbonate, which for freshwater influenced environments is hindered because the isotopic composition of the ambient water (related to salinity) affects the reconstructed temperature. In this paper we argue for the use of a nonlinear multi-proxy method called Weight Determination by Manifold Regularization to develop a temperature reconstruction model that is less sensitive to salinity variations. The motivation for using this type of model is twofold: Firstly, observed nonlinear relations between specific proxies and water temperature motivate the use of nonlinear models. Secondly, the use of multi-proxy models enables salinity related variations of a given temperature proxy to be explained by salinity-related information carried by a separate proxy. Our findings confirm that Mg/Ca is a powerful paleothermometer and highlight that reconstruction performance based on this proxy is improved significantly by combining its information with the information of other trace elements in multi-proxy models. Using Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca and Pb/Ca the WDMR model enabled a temperature reconstruction with a root mean squared error of ±2.19 °C for a salinity range between 15 and 32.
7.	Berchet, Antoine, et al. (författare) The Community Inversion Framework v1.0 : A unified system for atmospheric inversion studies 2021 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 14:8, s. 5331-5354 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Atmospheric inversion approaches are expected to play a critical role in future observation-based monitoring systems for surface fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs), pollutants and other trace gases. In the past decade, the research community has developed various inversion software, mainly using variational or ensemble Bayesian optimization methods, with various assumptions on uncertainty structures and prior information and with various atmospheric chemistry-Transport models. Each of them can assimilate some or all of the available observation streams for its domain area of interest: flask samples, in situ measurements or satellite observations. Although referenced in peer-reviewed publications and usually accessible across the research community, most systems are not at the level of transparency, flexibility and accessibility needed to provide the scientific community and policy makers with a comprehensive and robust view of the uncertainties associated with the inverse estimation of GHG and reactive species fluxes. Furthermore, their development, usually carried out by individual research institutes, may in the future not keep pace with the increasing scientific needs and technical possibilities. We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is primarily a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers. In practice, the ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool to estimate the fluxes of various GHGs and reactive species both at the global and regional scales. It will allow for running different atmospheric transport models, different observation streams and different data assimilation approaches. This adaptability will allow for a comprehensive assessment of uncertainty in a fully consistent framework. We present here the main structure and functionalities of the system, and we demonstrate how it operates in a simple academic case.
8.	Bergman, Tommi, et al. (författare) Description and evaluation of a secondary organic aerosol and new particle formation scheme within TM5-MP v1.2 2022 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:2, s. 683-713 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract We have implemented and evaluated a secondary organic aerosol scheme within the chemistry transport model TM5-MP in this work. In earlier versions of TM5-MP the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) was emitted as Aitken-sized particle mass emulating the condensation. In the current scheme we simulate the formation of secondary organic aerosol from oxidation of isoprene and monoterpenes by ozone and hydroxyl radicals, which produce semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) and extremely low-volatility compounds (EVOCs). Subsequently, SVOCs and ELVOCs can condense on particles. Furthermore, we have introduced a new particle formation mechanism depending on the concentration of ELVOCs. For evaluation purposes, we have simulated the year 2010 with the old and new scheme; we see an increase in simulated production of SOA from 39.9ĝ€¯Tgĝ€¯yr-1 with the old scheme to 52.5ĝ€¯Tgĝ€¯yr-1 with the new scheme. For more detailed analysis, the particle mass and number concentrations and their influence on the simulated aerosol optical depth are compared to observations. Phenomenologically, the new particle formation scheme implemented here is able to reproduce the occurrence of observed particle formation events. However, the modelled concentrations of formed particles are clearly lower than in observations, as is the subsequent growth to larger sizes. Compared to the old scheme, the new scheme increases the number concentrations across the observation stations while still underestimating the observations. The organic aerosol mass concentrations in the US show a much better seasonal cycle and no clear overestimation of mass concentrations anymore. In Europe the mass concentrations are lowered, leading to a larger underestimation of observations. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is generally slightly increased except in the northern high latitudes. This brings the simulated annual global mean AOD closer to the observational estimate. However, as the increase is rather uniform, biases tend to be reduced only in regions where the model underestimates the AOD. Furthermore, the correlations with satellite retrievals and ground-based sun-photometer observations of AOD are improved. Although the process-based approach to SOA formation causes a reduction in model performance in some areas, overall the new scheme improves the simulated aerosol fields.
9.	Bernard, Jérémy, 1989, et al. (författare) A generic algorithm to automatically classify urban fabric according to the local climate zone system: implementation in GeoClimate 0.0.1 and application to French cities 2024 Ingår i: GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 17:5, s. 2077-2116 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Geographical features may have a considerable effect on local climate. The local climate zone (LCZ) system proposed by is nowadays seen as a standard approach for classifying any zone according to a set of urban canopy parameters. While many methods already exist to map the LCZ, only few tools are openly and freely available. This paper presents the algorithm implemented in the GeoClimate software to identify the LCZ of any place in the world based on vector data. Six types of information are needed as input: the building footprint, road and rail networks, water, vegetation, and impervious surfaces. First, the territory is partitioned into reference spatial units (RSUs) using the road and rail network, as well as the boundaries of large vegetation and water patches. Then 14 urban canopy parameters are calculated for each RSU. Their values are used to classify each unit to a given LCZ type according to a set of rules. GeoClimate can automatically prepare the inputs and calculate the LCZ for two datasets, namely OpenStreetMap (OSM, available worldwide) and the BD TOPO (R) v2.2 (BDT, a French dataset produced by the national mapping agency). The LCZ are calculated for 22 French communes using these two datasets in order to evaluate the effect of the dataset on the results. About 55 % of all areas have obtained the same LCZ type, with large differences when differentiating this result by city (from 30 % to 82 %). The agreement is good for large patches of forest and water, as well as for compact mid-rise and open low-rise LCZ types. It is lower for open mid-rise and open high-rise, mainly due to the height underestimation of OSM buildings located in open areas. Through its simplicity of use, GeoClimate has great potential for new collaboration in the LCZ field.
10.	Bernard, Jérémy, 1989, et al. (författare) Estimation of missing building height in OpenStreetMap data: a French case study using GeoClimate 0.0.1 2022 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15, s. 7505-7532 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Information describing the elements of urban landscapes is required as input data to study numerous physical processes (e.g., climate, noise, air pollution). However, the accessibility and quality of urban data is heterogeneous across the world. As an example, a major open-source geographical data project (OpenStreetMap) demonstrates incomplete data regarding key urban properties such as building height. The present study implements and evaluates a statistical approach that models the missing values of building height in OpenStreetMap. A random forest method is applied to estimate building height based on a building's closest environment. A total of 62 geographical indicators are calculated with the GeoClimate tool and used as independent variables. A training dataset of 14 French communes is selected, and the reference building height is provided by the BDTopo IGN. An optimized random forest algorithm is proposed, and outputs are compared with an evaluation dataset. At building scale for all cities, at least 50 % of the buildings have their height estimated with an error of less than 4 m (the cities' median building heights range from 4.5 to 18 m). Two communes (Paris and Meudon) demonstrate building height results that deviate from the main trend due to their specific urban fabrics. Putting aside these two communes, when building height is averaged at a regular grid scale (100m × 100m), the median absolute error is 1.6 m, and at least 75 % of the cells of any city have an error lower than 3.2 m. This level of magnitude is quite reasonable when compared to the accuracy of the reference data (at least 50 % of the buildings have a height uncertainty equal to 5 m). This work offers insights about the estimation of missing urban data using statistical methods and contributes to the use of open-source datasets based on open-source software.
11.	Bernard, Jérémy, 1989, et al. (författare) URock 2023a: an open-source GIS-based wind model for complex urban settings 2023 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 16:20, s. 5703-5727 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract URock 2023a is an open-source diagnostic model dedicated to wind field calculation in urban settings. It is based on a quick method initially proposed by and already implemented in the proprietary software QUIC-URB. First, the model method is described as well as its implementation in the free and open-source geographic information system called QGIS. Then it is evaluated against wind tunnel measurements and QUIC-URB simulations for four different building layouts plus one case with an isolated tree. The correlation between URock and QUIC-URB is high, and URock reproduces the spatial variation of the wind speed observed in the wind tunnel experiments quite well, even in complex settings. However, sources of improvements, which are applicable for both URock and QUIC-URB, are highlighted. URock and QUIC-URB overestimate the wind speed downstream of the upwind edges of wide buildings and also downstream of isolated tree crowns. URock 2023a is available via the Urban Multiscale Environment Predictor (UMEP), a city-based climate service tool designed for researchers and service providers presented as a plug-in for QGIS. The model, data, and scripts used to write this paper can be freely accessed at 10.5281/zenodo.7681245 .
12.	Bieser, Johannes, et al. (författare) The 3D biogeochemical marine mercury cycling model MERCY v2.0 – linking atmospheric Hg to methylmercury in fish 2023 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 16:9, s. 2649-2688 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Mercury (Hg) is a pollutant of global concern. Due to anthropogenic emissions, the atmospheric and surface ocean Hg burden has increased substantially since preindustrial times. Hg emitted into the atmosphere gets transported on a global scale and ultimately reaches the oceans. There it is transformed into highly toxic methylmercury (MeHg) that effectively accumulates in the food web. The international community has recognized this serious threat to human health and in 2017 regulated Hg use and emissions under the UN Minamata Convention on Mercury. Currently, the first effectiveness evaluation of the Minamata Convention is being prepared, and, in addition to observations, models play a major role in understanding environmental Hg pathways and in predicting the impact of policy decisions and external drivers (e.g., climate, emission, and land-use change) on Hg pollution. Yet, the available model capabilities are mainly limited to atmospheric models covering the Hg cycle from emission to deposition. With the presented model MERCY v2.0 we want to contribute to the currently ongoing effort to improve our understanding of Hg and MeHg transport, transformation, and bioaccumulation in the marine environment with the ultimate goal of linking anthropogenic Hg releases to MeHg in seafood.Here, we present the equations and parameters implemented in the MERCY model and evaluate the model performance for two European shelf seas, the North and Baltic seas. With the model evaluation, we want to establish a set of general quality criteria that can be used for evaluation of marine Hg models. The evaluation is based on statistical criteria developed for the performance evaluation of atmospheric chemistry transport models. We show that the MERCY model can reproduce observed average concentrations of individual Hg species in water (normalized mean bias: HgT 17 %, Hg0 2 %, MeHg −28 %) in the two regions mentioned above. Moreover, it is able to reproduce the observed seasonality and spatial patterns. We find that the model error for HgT(aq) is mainly driven by the limitations of the physical model setup in the coastal zone and the availability of data on Hg loads in major rivers. In addition, the model error in calculating vertical mixing and stratification contributes to the total HgT model error. For the vertical transport we find that the widely used particle partitioning coefficient for organic matter of log(kd)=5.4 is too low for the coastal systems. For Hg0 the model performance is at a level where further model improvements will be difficult to achieve. For MeHg, our understanding of the processes controlling methylation and demethylation is still quite limited. While the model can reproduce average MeHg concentrations, this lack of understanding hampers our ability to reproduce the observed value range. Finally, we evaluate Hg and MeHg concentrations in biota and show that modeled values are within the range of observed levels of accumulation in phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish. The model performance demonstrates the feasibility of developing marine Hg models with similar predictive capability to established atmospheric chemistry transport models. Our findings also highlight important knowledge gaps in the dynamics controlling methylation and bioaccumulation that, if closed, could lead to important improvements of the model performance.
13.	Blennow, Kristina (författare) Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) 2018 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11, s. 771-791 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Earth system models (ESMs) are currently the most advanced tools with which to study the interactions among humans, ecosystem productivity, and the climate. The inclusion of storm damage in ESMs has long been hampered by their big-leaf approach, which ignores the canopy structure information that is required for process-based wind throw modelling. Recently the big-leaf assumptions in the large-scale land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN were replaced by a three-dimensional description of the canopy structure. This opened the way to the integration of the processes from the small-scale wind damage risk model Forest-GALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN. The integration of Forest-GALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN required, however, developing numerically efficient solutions to deal with (1) landscape heterogeneity, i.e. account for newly established forest edges for the parameterization of gusts; (2) downscaling spatially and temporally aggregated wind fields to obtain more realistic wind speeds that would represents gusts; and (3) downscaling storm damage within the 2500 km(2) pixels of ORCHIDEE-CAN. This new version of ORCHIDEE-CAN was parameterized over Sweden. Subsequently, the performance of the model was tested against data for historical storms in southern Sweden between 1951 and 2010 and south-western France in 2009. In years without big storms, here defined as a storm damaging less than 15 x 10(6) m(3) of wood in Sweden, the model error is 1.62 x 10(6) m(3), which is about 100% of the observed damage. For years with big storms, such as Gudrun in 2005, the model error increased to 5.05 x 10(6) m(3), which is between 10 and 50% of the observed damage. When the same model parameters were used over France, the model reproduced a decrease in leaf area index and an increase in albedo, in accordance with SPOT-VGT and MODIS records following the passing of Cyclone Klaus in 2009. The current version of ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) is therefore expected to have the capability to capture the dynamics of forest structure due to storm disturbance on both regional and global scales, although the empirical parameters calculating gustiness from the gridded wind fields and storm damage from critical wind speeds may benefit from regional fitting.
14.	Blichner, Sara M., et al. (författare) Implementing a sectional scheme for early aerosol growth from new particle formation in the Norwegian Earth System Model v2 : Comparison to observations and climate impacts 2021 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 14:6, s. 3335-3359 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Aerosol-cloud interactions contribute to a large portion of the spread in estimates of climate forcing, climate sensitivity and future projections. An important part of this uncertainty is how much new particle formation (NPF) contributes to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and, furthermore, how this changes with changes in anthropogenic emissions. Incorporating NPF and early growth in Earth system models (ESMs) is, however, challenging due to uncertain parameters (e.g. participating vapours), structural issues (numerical description of growth from ∼ 1 to ∼ 100 nm) and the large scale of an ESM grid compared to the NPF scale. A common approach in ESMs is to represent the particle size distribution by a certain number of log-normal modes. Sectional schemes, on the other hand, in which the size distribution is represented by bins, are considered closer to first principles because they do not make an a priori assumption about the size distribution. In order to improve the representation of early growth, we have implemented a sectional scheme for the smallest particles (5-39.6 nm diameter) in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), feeding particles into the original aerosol scheme. This is, to our knowledge, the first time such an approach has been tried. We find that including the sectional scheme for early growth improves the aerosol number concentration in the model when comparing against observations, particularly in the 50-100 nm diameter range. Furthermore, we find that the model with the sectional scheme produces much fewer particles than the original scheme in polluted regions, while it produces more in remote regions and the free troposphere, indicating a potential impact on the estimated aerosol forcing. Finally, we analyse the effect on cloud-aerosol interactions and find that the effect of changes in NPF efficiency on clouds is highly heterogeneous in space. While in remote regions, more efficient NPF leads to higher cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), in polluted regions the opposite is in fact the case.
15.	Bodin, Per, et al. (författare) Efficient modeling of sun/shade canopy radiation dynamics explicitly accounting for scattering 2012 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 5:2, s. 535-541 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Abstract in UndeterminedThe separation of global radiation (Rg) into its direct (Rb) and diffuse constituents (Rg) is important when modeling plant photosynthesis because a high Rd:Rg ratio has been shown to enhance Gross Primary Production (GPP). To include this effect in vegetation models, the plant canopy must be separated into sunlit and shaded leaves. However, because such models are often too intractable and computationally expensive for theoretical or large scale studies, simpler sun-shade approaches are often preferred. A widely used and computationally efficient sun-shade model was developed by Goudriaan (1977) (GOU). However, compared to more complex models, this model's realism is limited by its lack of explicit treatment of radiation scattering.Here we present a new model based on the GOU model, but which in contrast explicitly simulates radiation scattering by sunlit leaves and the absorption of this radiation by the canopy layers above and below (2-stream approach). Compared to the GOU model our model predicts significantly different profiles of scattered radiation that are in better agreement with measured profiles of downwelling diffuse radiation. With respect to these data our model's performance is equal to a more complex and much slower iterative radiation model while maintaining the simplicity and computational efficiency of the GOU model.
16.	Brioude, Jerome, et al. (författare) The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF version 3.1 2013 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 6:6, s. 1889-1904 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was originally designed for calculating long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such that occurring after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime, FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis at different scales. A need for further multiscale modeling and analysis has encouraged new developments in FLEXPART. In this paper, we present a FLEXPART version that works with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model. We explain how to run this new model and present special options and features that differ from those of the preceding versions. For instance, a novel turbulence scheme for the convective boundary layer has been included that considers both the skewness of turbulence in the vertical velocity as well as the vertical gradient in the air density. To our knowledge, FLEXPART is the first model for which such a scheme has been developed. On a more technical level, FLEXPART-WRF now offers effective parallelization, and details on computational performance are presented here. FLEXPART-WRF output can either be in binary or Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) format, both of which have efficient data compression. In addition, test case data and the source code are provided to the reader as a Supplement. This material and future developments will be accessible at http://www.flexpart.eu.
17.	Buehler, S.A., et al. (författare) ARTS, the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator - Version 2.2, the planetary toolbox edition 2018 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11:4, s. 1537-1556 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This article describes the latest stable release (version 2.2) of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS), a public domain software for radiative transfer simulations in the thermal spectral range (microwave to infrared). The main feature of this release is a planetary toolbox that allows simulations for the planets Venus, Mars, and Jupiter, in addition to Earth. This required considerable model adaptations, most notably in the area of gaseous absorption calculations. Other new features are also described, notably radio link budgets (including the effect of Faraday rotation that changes the polarization state) and the treatment of Zeeman splitting for oxygen spectral lines. The latter is relevant, for example, for the various operational microwave satellite temperature sensors of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) family.
18.	Camino-Serrano, Marta, et al. (författare) ORCHIDEE-SOM : Modeling soil organic carbon (SOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics along vertical soil profiles in Europe 2018 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11:3, s. 937-957 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Current Land Surface Models (LSMs) typically represent soils in a very simplistic way, assuming soil organic carbon (SOC) as a bulk, thus impeding a correct representation of deep soil carbon dynamics. Moreover, LSMs generally neglect the production and export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils to rivers, leading to overestimations of the potential carbon sequestration on land. These common oversimplified processing of SOC in LSMs is partly responsible for the large uncertainty in the predictions of the soil carbon response to climate change. In this study, we present a new soil carbon module called ORCHIDEE-SOM, embedded within the land surface model ORCHIDEE, which is able to reproduce the DOC and SOC dynamics in a vertically discretized soil to two meters. The model includes processes of biological production and consumption of SOC and DOC, DOC adsorption on- and desorption from soil minerals, diffusion of SOC and DOC and DOC transport with water through and out of the soils to rivers. We evaluated ORCHIDEE-SOM against observations of DOC concentrations and SOC stocks from four European sites with different vegetation covers: a coniferous forest, a deciduous forest, a grassland and a cropland. The model was able to reproduce the SOC stocks along their vertical profiles at the four sites and the DOC concentrations within the range of measurements, with the exception of the DOC concentrations in the upper soil horizon at the coniferous forest. However, the model was not able to fully capture the temporal dynamics of DOC concentrations. Further model improvements should focus on a plant- and depth- dependent parameterization of the new input model parameters, such as the decomposition times of DOC and the microbial carbon use efficiency. We suggest that this new soil module, when parameterized for global simulations, will improve the representation of the global carbon cycle in LSMs, thus helping to constrain the predictions of the future SOC response to global warming.
19.	Chakrawal, Arjun, et al. (författare) Dynamic upscaling of decomposition kinetics for carbon cycling models 2020 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 13:3, s. 1399-1429 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The distribution of organic substrates and microorganisms in soils is spatially heterogeneous at the microscale. Most soil carbon cycling models do not account for this microscale heterogeneity, which may affect predictions of carbon (C) fluxes and stocks. In this study, we hypothesize that the mean respiration rate (R) over bar at the soil core scale (i) is affected by the microscale spatial heterogeneity of substrate and microorganisms and (ii) depends upon the degree of this heterogeneity. To theoretically assess the effect of spatial heterogeneities on (R) over bar, we contrast heterogeneous conditions with isolated patches of substrate and microorganisms versus spatially homogeneous conditions equivalent to those assumed in most soil C models. Moreover, we distinguish between biophysical heterogeneity, defined as the nonuniform spatial distribution of substrate and microorganisms, and full heterogeneity, defined as the nonuniform spatial distribution of substrate quality (or accessibility) in addition to biophysical heterogeneity. Four common formulations for decomposition kinetics (linear, multiplicative, Michaelis-Menten, and inverse Michaelis-Menten) are considered in a coupled substrate-microbial biomass model valid at the microscale. We start with a 2-D domain characterized by a heterogeneous substrate distribution and numerically simulate organic matter dynamics in each cell in the domain. To interpret the mean behavior of this spatially explicit system, we propose an analytical scale transition approach in which microscale heterogeneities affect (R) over bar through the second-order spatial moments (spatial variances and covariances). The model assuming homogeneous conditions was not able to capture the mean behavior of the heterogeneous system because the second-order moments cause (R) over bar to be higher or lower than in the homogeneous system, depending on the sign of these moments. This effect of spatial heterogeneities appears in the upscaled nonlinear decomposition formulations, whereas the upscaled linear decomposition model deviates from homogeneous conditions only when substrate quality is heterogeneous. Thus, this study highlights the inadequacy of applying at the macroscale the same decomposition formulations valid at the microscale and proposes a scale transition approach as a way forward to capture microscale dynamics in core-scale models.
20.	Ciais, Philippe, et al. (författare) Definitions and methods to estimate regional land carbon fluxes for the second phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project (RECCAP-2) 2022 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:3, s. 1289-1316 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Regional land carbon budgets provide insights into the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields, or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions due to different definitions and component fluxes being reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definitions and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to a globe scale and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, using the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims to be an update to regional carbon budgets over the last 2 decades based on observations for 10 regions covering the globe with a better harmonization than the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversion results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes, and land use fluxes.
21.	Ciarelli, Giancarlo, et al. (författare) Trends of inorganic and organic aerosols and precursor gases in Europe: Insights from the EURODELTA multi-model experiment over the 1990-2010 period 2019 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 12:12, s. 4923-4954 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract In the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends (EDT) modeling experiment, several chemical transport models (CTMs) were applied for the 1990-2010 period to investigate air quality changes in Europe as well as the capability of the models to reproduce observed long-term air quality trends. Five CTMs have provided modeled air quality data for 21 continuous years in Europe using emission scenarios prepared by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis/Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (IIASA/GAINS) and corresponding year-by-year meteorology derived from ERA-Interim global reanalysis. For this study, long-term observations of particle sulfate (SO2 4-), total nitrate (TNO3), total ammonium (TNHx) as well as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for multiple sites in Europe were used to evaluate the model results. The trend analysis was performed for the full 21 years (referred to as PT) but also for two 11-year subperiods: 1990-2000 (referred to as P1) and 2000-2010 (referred to as P2). The experiment revealed that the models were able to reproduce the faster decline in observed SO2 concentrations during the first decade, i.e., 1990-2000, with a 64%-76% mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all the models) versus an 82% mean relative reduction in observed concentrations. During the second decade (P2), the models estimated a mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations of about 34%-54%, which was also in line with that observed (47%). Comparisons of observed and modeled NO2 trends revealed a mean relative decrease of 25% and between 19% and 23% (range of all the models) during the P1 period, and 12% and between 22% and 26% (range of all the models) during the P2 period, respectively. Comparisons of observed and modeled trends in SO4 2- concentrations during the P1 period indicated that the models were able to reproduce the observed trends at most of the sites, with a 42%-54% mean relative reduction indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all models) versus a 57% mean relative reduction in observed concentrations and with good performance also during the P2 and PT periods, even though all the models overpredicted the number of statistically significant decreasing trends during the P2 period. Moreover, especially during the P1 period, both modeled and observational data indicated smaller reductions in SO42- concentrations compared with their gas-phase precursor (i.e., SO2), which could be mainly attributed to increased oxidant levels and pH-dependent cloud chemistry. An analysis of the trends in TNO3 concentrations indicated a 28%-39% and 29% mean relative reduction in TNO3 concentrations for the full period for model data (range of all the models) and observations, respectively. Further analysis of the trends in modeled HNO3 and particle nitrate (NO-3 ) concentrations revealed that the relative reduction in HNO3 was larger than that for NO-3 during the P1 period, which was mainly attributed to an increased availability of "free ammonia". By contrast, trends in modeled HNO3 and NO-3 concentrations were more comparable during the P2 period. Also, trends of TNHx concentrations were, in general, underpredicted by all models, with worse performance for the P1 period than for P2. Trends in modeled anthropogenic and biogenic secondary organic aerosol (ASOA and BSOA) concentrations together with the trends in available emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) were also investigated. A strong decrease in ASOA was indicated by all the models, following the reduction in anthropogenic non-methane VOC (NMVOC) precursors. Biogenic emission data provided by the modeling teams indicated a few areas with statistically significant increase in isoprene emissions and monoterpene emissions during the 1990-2010 period over Fennoscandia and eastern European regions (i.e., around 14 %-27 %), which was mainly attributed to the increase of surface temperature. However, the modeled BSOA concentrations did not linearly follow the increase in biogenic emissions. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation against positive matrix factorization (PMF) data, available during the second period (P2) at various European sites, revealed a systematic underestimation of the modeled SOA fractions of a factor of 3 to 11, on average, most likely because of missing SOA precursors and formation pathways, with reduced biases for the models that accounted for chemical aging of semi-volatile SOA components in the atmosphere.
22.	Clusius, Petri, et al. (författare) Atmospherically Relevant Chemistry and Aerosol box model - ARCA box (version 1.2) 2022 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:18, s. 7257-7286 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract We introduce the Atmospherically Relevant Chemistry and Aerosol box model ARCA box (v.1.2.2). It is a zero-dimensional process model with a focus on atmospheric chemistry and submicron aerosol processes, including cluster formation. A novel feature in the model is its comprehensive graphical user interface, allowing for detailed configuration and documentation of the simulation settings, flexible model input, and output visualization. Additionally, the graphical interface contains tools for module customization and input data acquisition. These properties - customizability, ease of implementation and repeatability - make ARCA an invaluable tool for any atmospheric scientist who needs a view on the complex atmospheric aerosol processes. ARCA is based on previous models (MALTE-BOX, ADiC and ADCHEM), but the code has been fully rewritten and reviewed. The gas-phase chemistry module incorporates the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.3.1) and Peroxy Radical Autoxidation Mechanism (PRAM) but can use any compatible chemistry scheme. ARCA's aerosol module couples the ACDC (Atmospheric Cluster Dynamics Code) in its particle formation module, and the discrete particle size representation includes the fully stationary and fixed-grid moving average methods. ARCA calculates the gas-particle partitioning of low-volatility organic vapours for any number of compounds included in the chemistry, as well as the Brownian coagulation of the particles. The model has parametrizations for vapour and particle wall losses but accepts user-supplied time- and size-resolved input. ARCA is written in Fortran and Python (user interface and supplementary tools), can be installed on any of the three major operating systems and is licensed under GPLv3.
23.	Colette, Augustin, et al. (författare) EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990–2010 2017 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:9, s. 3255-3276 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990–2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions, and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have – to date – completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models). The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i) an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990–2010 time period, (iii) attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology), (iv) a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model results for use in impact studies related to human health, ecosystem, and radiative forcing.
24.	Davis, Tyler W., et al. (författare) Simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH v.1.0) : Robust indices of radiation, evapotranspiration and plant-available moisture 2017 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:2, s. 689-708 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Bioclimatic indices for use in studies of ecosystem function, species distribution, and vegetation dynamics under changing climate scenarios depend on estimates of surface fluxes and other quantities, such as radiation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture, for which direct observations are sparse. These quantities can be derived indirectly from meteorological variables, such as near-surface air temperature, precipitation and cloudiness. Here we present a consolidated set of simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH) allowing robust approximations of key quantities at ecologically relevant timescales. We specify equations, derivations, simplifications, and assumptions for the estimation of daily and monthly quantities of top-of-the-atmosphere solar radiation, net surface radiation, photosynthetic photon flux density, evapotranspiration (potential, equilibrium, and actual), condensation, soil moisture, and runoff, based on analysis of their relationship to fundamental climatic drivers. The climatic drivers include a minimum of three meteorological inputs: precipitation, air temperature, and fraction of bright sunshine hours. Indices, such as the moisture index, the climatic water deficit, and the Priestley-Taylor coefficient, are also defined. The SPLASH code is transcribed in C++, FORTRAN, Python, and R. A total of 1 year of results are presented at the local and global scales to exemplify the spatiotemporal patterns of daily and monthly model outputs along with comparisons to other model results.
25.	Drobyshev, Igor (författare) Evaluation of CMIP6 model performances in simulating fire weather spatiotemporal variability on global and regional scales 2023 Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 16, s. 3103-3122 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Weather and climate play an important role in shaping globalwildfire regimes and geographical distributions of burnable area. Asprojected by the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC-AR6), in the near future, fire danger is likely toincrease in many regions due to warmer temperatures and drier conditions.General circulation models (GCMs) are an important resource in understandinghow fire danger will evolve in a changing climate, but, to date, thedevelopment of fire risk scenarios has not fully accounted for systematicGCM errors and biases. This study presents a comprehensive global evaluationof the spatiotemporal representation of fire weather indicators from theCanadian Forest Fire Weather Index System simulated by 16 GCMs from thesixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). While at the globalscale, the ensemble mean is able to represent variability, magnitude andspatial extent of different fire weather indicators reasonably well whencompared to the latest global fire reanalysis, there is considerableregional and seasonal dependence in the performance of each GCM. To supportthe GCM selection and application for impact studies, the evaluation resultsare combined to generate global and regional rankings of individual GCMperformance. The findings highlight the value of GCM evaluation andselection in developing more reliable projections of future climate-drivenfire danger, thereby enabling decision makers and forest managers to taketargeted action and respond to future fire events.

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