| 1. |
- Analytis, Pantelis P., et al.
(author)
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Social learning strategies for matters of taste
- 2018
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2397-3374. ; 2:6, s. 415-424
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Most choices people make are about 'matters of taste', on which there is no universal, objective truth. Nevertheless, people can learn from the experiences of individuals with similar tastes who have already evaluated the available options-a potential harnessed by recommender systems. We mapped recommender system algorithms to models of human judgement and decision-making about 'matters of fact' and recast the latter as social learning strategies for matters of taste. Using computer simulations on a large-scale, empirical dataset, we studied how people could leverage the experiences of others to make better decisions. Our simulations showed that experienced individuals can benefit from relying mostly on the opinions of seemingly similar people; by contrast, inexperienced individuals cannot reliably estimate similarity and are better off picking the mainstream option despite differences in taste. Crucially, the level of experience beyond which people should switch to similarity-heavy strategies varies substantially across individuals and depends on how mainstream (or alternative) an individual's tastes are and the level of dispersion in taste similarity with the other people in the group.
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| 2. |
- Arvidsson, Martin, 1990-, et al.
(author)
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Urban scaling laws arise from within-city inequalities
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2397-3374. ; 7:3, s. 365-374
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Theories of urban scaling have demonstrated remarkable predictive accuracy at aggregate levels. However, they have overlooked the stark inequalities that exist within cities. Human networking and productivity exhibit heavy-tailed distributions, with some individuals contributing disproportionately to city totals. Here we use micro-level data from Europe and the United States on interconnectivity, productivity and innovation in cities. We find that the tails of within-city distributions and their growth by city size account for 36–80% of previously reported scaling effects, and 56–87% of the variance in scaling between indicators of varying economic complexity. Providing explanatory depth to these findings, we identify a mechanism—city size-dependent cumulative advantage—that constitutes an important channel through which differences in the size of tails emerge. Our findings demonstrate that urban scaling is in large part a story about inequality in cities, implying that the causal processes underlying the heavier tails in larger cities must be considered in explanations of urban scaling. This result also shows that agglomeration effects benefit urban elites the most, with the majority of city dwellers partially excluded from the socio-economic benefits of growing cities.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Baldwin, J. R., et al.
(author)
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A genetically informed Registered Report on adverse childhood experiences and mental health
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 7:2, s. 269-290
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Children who experience adversities have an elevated risk of mental health problems. However, the extent to which adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) cause mental health problems remains unclear, as previous associations may partly reflect genetic confounding. In this Registered Report, we used DNA from 11,407 children from the United Kingdom and the United States to investigate gene-environment correlations and genetic confounding of the associations between ACEs and mental health. Regarding gene-environment correlations, children with higher polygenic scores for mental health problems had a small increase in odds of ACEs. Regarding genetic confounding, elevated risk of mental health problems in children exposed to ACEs was at least partially due to pre-existing genetic risk. However, some ACEs (such as childhood maltreatment and parental mental illness) remained associated with mental health problems independent of genetic confounding. These findings suggest that interventions addressing heritable psychiatric vulnerabilities in children exposed to ACEs may help reduce their risk of mental health problems.
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| 6. |
- Becker, Joel, et al.
(author)
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Resource profile and user guide of the Polygenic Index Repository
- 2021
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Nature Research (part of Springer Nature). - 2397-3374. ; 51:6, s. 694-695
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Polygenic indexes (PGIs) are DNA-based predictors. Their value for research in many scientific disciplines is growing rapidly. As a resource for researchers, we used a consistent methodology to construct PGIs for 47 phenotypes in 11 datasets. To maximize the PGIs’ prediction accuracies, we constructed them using genome-wide association studies—some not previously published—from multiple data sources, including 23andMe and UK Biobank. We present a theoretical framework to help interpret analyses involving PGIs. A key insight is that a PGI can be understood as an unbiased but noisy measure of a latent variable we call the ‘additive SNP factor’. Regressions in which the true regressor is this factor but the PGI is used as its proxy therefore suffer from errors-in-variables bias. We derive an estimator that corrects for the bias, illustrate the correction, and make a Python tool for implementing it publicly available. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Benjamin, Daniel J., et al.
(author)
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Redefine statistical significance
- 2018
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Nature Research (part of Springer Nature). - 2397-3374. ; 2:1, s. 6-10
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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| 9. |
- Betthäuser, Bastian A., et al.
(author)
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A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence on learning during the COVID-19 pandemic
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 7:3, s. 375-385
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To what extent has the learning progress of school-aged children slowed down during the COVID-19 pandemic? A growing number of studies address this question, but findings vary depending on context. Here we conduct a pre-registered systematic review, quality appraisal and meta-analysis of 42 studies across 15 countries to assess the magnitude of learning deficits during the pandemic. We find a substantial overall learning deficit (Cohen’s d = −0.14, 95% confidence interval −0.17 to −0.10), which arose early in the pandemic and persists over time. Learning deficits are particularly large among children from low socio-economic backgrounds. They are also larger in maths than in reading and in middle-income countries relative to high-income countries. There is a lack of evidence on learning progress during the pandemic in low-income countries. Future research should address this evidence gap and avoid the common risks of bias that we identify.
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| 10. |
- Bhattacharjee, NV, et al.
(author)
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Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2018
- 2021
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In: Nature human behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 5:8, s. 1027-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.
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| 11. |
- Calvert, Clara, et al.
(author)
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Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7:4, s. 529-544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from -90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures ('lockdowns'). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92-0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94-1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96-1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88-1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88-1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87-1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02-1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03-1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03-1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05-1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways.
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| 12. |
- Camerer, C. F., et al.
(author)
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Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015
- 2018
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 2:9, s. 637-644
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for scientific progress1-15. We replicate 21 systematically selected experimental studies in the social sciences published in Nature and Science between 2010 and 201516-36. The replications follow analysis plans reviewed by the original authors and pre-registered prior to the replications. The replications are high powered, with sample sizes on average about five times higher than in the original studies. We find a significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 13 (62%) studies, and the effect size of the replications is on average about 50% of the original effect size. Replicability varies between 12 (57%) and 14 (67%) studies for complementary replicability indicators. Consistent with these results, the estimated truepositive rate is 67% in a Bayesian analysis. The relative effect size of true positives is estimated to be 71%, suggesting that both false positives and inflated effect sizes of true positives contribute to imperfect reproducibility. Furthermore, we find that peer beliefs of replicability are strongly related to replicability, suggesting that the research community could predict which results would replicate and that failures to replicate were not the result of chance alone.
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| 13. |
- Cowen, Alan S., et al.
(author)
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The primacy of categories in the recognition of 12 emotions in speech prosody across two cultures
- 2019
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 3:4, s. 369-382
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Central to emotion science is the degree to which categories, such as Awe, or broader affective features, such as Valence, underlie the recognition of emotional expression. To explore the processes by which people recognize emotion from prosody, US and Indian participants were asked to judge the emotion categories or affective features communicated by 2,519 speech samples produced by 100 actors from 5 cultures. With large-scale statistical inference methods, we find that prosody can communicate at least 12 distinct kinds of emotion that are preserved across the 2 cultures. Analyses of the semantic and acoustic structure of the recognition of emotions reveal that emotion categories drive the recognition of emotions more so than affective features, including Valence. In contrast to discrete emotion theories, however, emotion categories are bridged by gradients representing blends of emotions. Our findings, visualized within an interactive map, reveal a complex, high-dimensional space of emotional states recognized cross-culturally in speech prosody.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Dreber, Anna, et al.
(author)
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Reproduction and replication at scale
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - 2397-3374. ; 8:1, s. 2-3
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The I4R approach to reproduction and replication is twofold. First, we introduced a research event called the ‘Replication Games’ as part of our strategy1. These one-day events, which typically take place at universities or conferences, each bring together a total of 30 to 100 researchers who collaborate to carry out replications. Participants are organized into small teams that comprise 3 to 5 members with similar research interests. Each team focuses on a single paper.
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| 16. |
- Fjell, Anders M., et al.
(author)
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No phenotypic or genotypic evidence for a link between sleep duration and brain atrophy
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7:11, s. 2008-2022
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Short sleep is held to cause poorer brain health, but is short sleep associated with higher rates of brain structural decline? Analysing 8,153 longitudinal MRIs from 3,893 healthy adults, we found no evidence for an association between sleep duration and brain atrophy. In contrast, cross-sectional analyses (51,295 observations) showed inverse U-shaped relationships, where a duration of 6.5 (95% confidence interval, (5.7, 7.3)) hours was associated with the thickest cortex and largest volumes relative to intracranial volume. This fits converging evidence from research on mortality, health and cognition that points to roughly seven hours being associated with good health. Genome-wide association analyses suggested that genes associated with longer sleep for below-average sleepers were linked to shorter sleep for above-average sleepers. Mendelian randomization did not yield evidence for causal impacts of sleep on brain structure. The combined results challenge the notion that habitual short sleep causes brain atrophy, suggesting that normal brains promote adequate sleep duration—which is shorter than current recommendations.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(author)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Jang, Seon-Kyeong, et al.
(author)
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Rare genetic variants explain missing heritability in smoking.
- 2022
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In: Nature human behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 6:11, s. 1577-1586
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Common genetic variants explain less variation in complex phenotypes than inferred from family-based studies, and there is a debate on the source of this 'missing heritability'. We investigated the contribution of rare genetic variants to tobacco use with whole-genome sequences from up to 26,257 unrelated individuals of European ancestries and 11,743 individuals of African ancestries. Across four smoking traits, single-nucleotide-polymorphism-based heritability ([Formula: see text]) was estimated from 0.13 to 0.28 (s.e., 0.10-0.13) in European ancestries, with 35-74% of it attributable to rare variants with minor allele frequencies between 0.01% and 1%. These heritability estimates are 1.5-4 times higher than past estimates based on common variants alone and accounted for 60% to 100% of our pedigree-based estimates of narrow-sense heritability ([Formula: see text], 0.18-0.34). In the African ancestry samples, [Formula: see text] was estimated from 0.03 to 0.33 (s.e., 0.09-0.14) across the four smoking traits. These results suggest that rare variants are important contributors to the heritability of smoking.
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| 23. |
- Jones, Benedict C, et al.
(author)
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To which world regions does the valence-dominance model of social perception apply?
- 2021
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 5:1, s. 159-169
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Over the past 10 years, Oosterhof and Todorov's valence-dominance model has emerged as the most prominent account of how people evaluate faces on social dimensions. In this model, two dimensions (valence and dominance) underpin social judgements of faces. Because this model has primarily been developed and tested in Western regions, it is unclear whether these findings apply to other regions. We addressed this question by replicating Oosterhof and Todorov's methodology across 11 world regions, 41 countries and 11,570 participants. When we used Oosterhof and Todorov's original analysis strategy, the valence-dominance model generalized across regions. When we used an alternative methodology to allow for correlated dimensions, we observed much less generalization. Collectively, these results suggest that, while the valence-dominance model generalizes very well across regions when dimensions are forced to be orthogonal, regional differences are revealed when we use different extraction methods and correlate and rotate the dimension reduction solution. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: The stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 5 November 2018. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7611443.v1 .
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
- KC, Ashish, 1982-, et al.
(author)
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Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries.
- 2023
-
In: Nature human behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 7:4, s. 529-544
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from -90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures ('lockdowns'). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92-0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94-1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96-1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88-1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88-1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87-1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02-1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03-1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03-1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05-1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways.
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