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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Jerusalem, G, et al.
(författare)
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Continuous versus intermittent extended adjuvant letrozole for breast cancer: Final results of randomized phase 3 SOLE (Study of Letrozole Extension) and SOLE Estrogen Substudy.
- 2021
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Ingår i: Annals of Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0923-7534. ; 32:10, s. 1256-1266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Late recurrences in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancers remain an important challenge. Avoidance or delayed development of resistance represents the main objective in extended endocrine therapy. In animal models, resistance was reversed with restoration of circulating estrogen level during interruption of letrozole treatment. This phase 3 randomized, open-label Study of Letrozole Extension (SOLE) studied the effect of extended intermittent letrozole treatment in comparison with continuous letrozole. In parallel, the SOLE estrogen sub-study (SOLE-EST) analyzed the level of estrogen during the interruption of treatment.SOLE enrolled 4884 postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive, lymph node-positive, operable breast cancer between December 2007 and October 2012 and among them, 104 patients were enrolled in SOLE-EST. They must have undergone local treatment and have completed 4-6 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy. Patients were randomized between continuous letrozole (2.5 mg/day orally for 5 years) and intermittent letrozole treatment (2.5 mg/day during 9 months followed by a 3-month interruption in years 1-4 and then 2.5 mg/day during all year 5).Intention-to-treat population included 4851 women in SOLE (n=2425 in intermittent and n=2426 in continuous letrozole groups) and 103 women in SOLE-EST (n=78 in intermittent and n=25 in continuous letrozole groups). After a median follow-up of 84 months, 7-year disease-free survival was 81.4% in intermittent group and 81.5% in continuous group (hazard ratio: 1.03, 95%CI: 0.91-1.17). Reported adverse events were similar in both groups. Circulating estrogen recovery was demonstrated within 6 weeks after the stop of letrozole treatment.Extended adjuvant endocrine therapy by intermittent administration of letrozole did not improve disease-free survival compared to continuous use despite the recovery of circulating estrogen level. The similar disease-free survival coupled with previously reported quality-of-life advantages suggest intermittent extended treatment is a valid option for patients who require or prefer a treatment interruption.
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| 9. |
- Colleoni, M., et al.
(författare)
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Low-Dose Oral Cyclophosphamide and Methotrexate Maintenance for Hormone Receptor-Negative Early Breast Cancer: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial 22-00
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - : American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO). - 0732-183X .- 1527-7755. ; 34:28, s. 3400-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose To evaluate the benefit of low-dose cyclophosphamide and methotrexate (CM) maintenance, which previously demonstrated antitumor activity and few adverse effects in advanced breast cancer, in early breast cancer. International Breast Cancer Study Group (IBCSG) Trial 22-00, a randomized phase III clinical trial, enrolled 1,086 women (1,081 intent-to-treat) from November 2000 to December 2012. Women with estrogen receptor- and progesterone receptor-negative (< 10% positive cells by immunohistochemistry) early breast cancer any nodal and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status, were randomly assigned anytime between primary surgery and 56 days after the first day of last course of adjuvant chemotherapy to CM maintenance (cyclophosphamide 50 mg/day orally continuously and methotrexate 2.5 mg twice/day orally on days 1 and 2 of every week for 1 year) or to no CM. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS), which included invasive recurrences, second (breast and nonbreast) malignancies, and deaths. After a median of 6.9 years of follow-up, DFS was not significantly better for patients assigned to CM maintenance compared with patients assigned to no CM, both overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.84; 95% CI, 0.66 to 1.06;P = .14) and in triple-negative (TN) disease (n = 814; HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.06). Patients with TN, node-positive disease had a nonstatistically significant reduced HR (n = 340; HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.49 to 1.05). Seventy-one (13%) of 542 patients assigned to CM maintenance did not start CM. Of 473 patients who received at least one CM maintenance dose (including two patients assigned to no CM), 64 (14%) experienced a grade 3 or 4 treatment-related adverse event; elevated serum transaminases was the most frequently reported (7%), followed by leukopenia (2%). CM maintenance did not produce a significant reduction in DFS events in hormone receptor-negative early breast cancer. The trend toward benefit observed in the TN, node-positive subgroup supports additional exploration of this strategy in the TN, higher-risk population. (C) 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.
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| 10. |
- Gizaw, A., et al.
(författare)
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Colonization and diversification in the African 'sky islands': insights from fossil-calibrated molecular dating of Lychnis (Caryophyllaceae)
- 2016
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Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : Wiley. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 211:2, s. 719-734
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The flora on the isolated high African mountains or 'sky islands' is remarkable for its peculiar adaptations, local endemism and striking biogeographical connections to remote parts of the world. Ages of the plant lineages and the timing of their radiations have frequently been debated but remain contentious as there are few estimates based on explicit models and fossil-calibrated molecular clocks. We used the plastid region maturaseK (matK) and a Caryophylloflora paleogenica fossil to infer the age of the genus Lychnis, and constructed a data set of three plastid (matK; a ribosomal protein S16 (rps16); and an intergenic spacer (psbE-petL)) and two nuclear (internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and a region spanning exon 18-24 in the second largest subunit of RNA polymerase II (RPB2)) loci for joint estimation of the species tree and divergence time of the African representatives. The time of divergence of the African high-altitude Lychnis was placed in the late Miocene to early Pliocene. A single speciation event was inferred in the early Pliocene; subsequent speciation took place sporadically from the late Pliocene to the middle Pleistocene. We provide further support for a Eurasian origin of the African 'sky islands' floral elements, which seem to have been recruited via dispersals at different times: some old, as in Lychnis, and others very recent. We show that dispersal and diversification within Africa play an important role in shaping these isolated plant communities.
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| 12. |
- Phillips, K. A., et al.
(författare)
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Adjuvant ovarian function suppression and cognitive function in women with breast cancer
- 2016
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Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 114:9, s. 956-964
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: To examine the effect on cognitive function of adjuvant ovarian function suppression (OFS) for breast cancer. Methods: The Suppression of Ovarian Function (SOFT) trial randomised premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer to 5 years adjuvant endocrine therapy with tamoxifen + OFS, exemestane + OFS or tamoxifen alone. The Co-SOFT substudy assessed objective cognitive function and patient reported outcomes at randomisation (T0), and 1 year later (T1); the primary endpoint was change in global cognitive function, measured by the composite objective cognitive function score. Data were compared for the pooled tamoxifen + OFS and exemestane + OFS groups vs the tamoxifen alone group using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Results: Of 86 participants, 74 underwent both T0 and T1 cognitive testing; 54 randomised to OFS+ either tamoxifen (28) or exemestane (26) and 20 randomised to tamoxifen alone. There was no significant difference in the changes in the composite cognitive function scores between the OFS+ tamoxifen or exemestane groups and the tamoxifen group (mean +/- s.d., -0.21 +/- 0.92 vs -0.04 +/- 0.49, respectively, P = 0.71, effect size = -0.20), regardless of prior chemotherapy status, and adjusting for baseline characteristics. Conclusions: The Co-SOFT study, although limited by small samples size, provides no evidence that adding OFS to adjuvant oral endocrine therapy substantially affects global cognitive function.
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| 17. |
- Ardo, Shane, et al.
(författare)
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Pathways to electrochemical solar-hydrogen technologies
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy & Environmental Science. - : Royal Society of Chemistry. - 1754-5692 .- 1754-5706. ; 11:10, s. 2768-2783
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Solar-powered electrochemical production of hydrogen through water electrolysis is an active and important research endeavor. However, technologies and roadmaps for implementation of this process do not exist. In this perspective paper, we describe potential pathways for solar-hydrogen technologies into the marketplace in the form of photoelectrochemical or photovoltaic-driven electrolysis devices and systems. We detail technical approaches for device and system architectures, economic drivers, societal perceptions, political impacts, technological challenges, and research opportunities. Implementation scenarios are broken down into short-term and long-term markets, and a specific technology roadmap is defined. In the short term, the only plausible economical option will be photovoltaic-driven electrolysis systems for niche applications. In the long term, electrochemical solar-hydrogen technologies could be deployed more broadly in energy markets but will require advances in the technology, significant cost reductions, and/ or policy changes. Ultimately, a transition to a society that significantly relies on solar-hydrogen technologies will benefit from continued creativity and influence from the scientific community.
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| 18. |
- Bogren, Malin, 1970, et al.
(författare)
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Health workforce perspectives of barriers inhibiting the provision of quality care in Nepal and Somalia : A qualitative study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sexual and Reproductive Healthcare. - : Elsevier. - 1877-5756. ; 23
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ObjectiveIn this paper settings from Nepal and Somalia are used to focus on the perspectives of healthcare providers within two fragile health systems. The objective of this study was to describe barriers inhibiting quality healthcare in Nepal and Somalia from a health workforce perspective.MethodsData were collected through 19 semi-structured interviews with healthcare providers working in healthcare facilities. Ten interviews were conducted in Nepal and nine in Somalia.ResultsVarious structural barriers inhibiting the availability, accessibility, and acceptability of the quality care were similar in both countries. Barriers inhibiting the availability of quality care were linked to healthcare providers being overburdened with multiple concurrent jobs. Barriers inhibiting the accessibility to quality healthcare included long distances and the uncertain availability of transportation, and barriers to acceptability of quality healthcare was inhibited by a lack of respect from healthcare providers, characterised by neglect, verbal abuse, and lack of competence.ConclusionsInequality, poverty, traditional and cultural practices plus the heavy burden placed on healthcare providers are described as the underlying causes of the poor provision of quality care and the consequential shortcomings that emerge from it. In order to improve this situation adequate planning and policies that support the deployment and retention of the healthcare providers and its equitable distribution is required. Another important aspect is provision of training to equip healthcare providers with the ability to provide respectful quality care in order for the population to enjoy good standard of healthcare services.
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| 20. |
- Karakatsanis, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of preoperative injection of superparamagnetic iron oxide particles on rates of sentinel lymph node dissection in women undergoing surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ (SentiNot study)
- 2019
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Ingår i: British Journal of Surgery. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0007-1323 .- 1365-2168. ; 106:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One-fifth of patients with a preoperative diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) have invasive breast cancer (IBC) on definitive histology. Sentinel lymph node dissection (SLND) is performed in almost half of women having surgery for DCIS in Sweden. The aim of the present study was to try to minimize unnecessary SLND by injecting superparamagnetic iron oxide (SPIO) nanoparticles at the time of primary breast surgery, enabling SLND to be performed later, if IBC is found in the primary specimen. Methods: Women with DCIS at high risk for the presence of invasion undergoing breast conservation, and patients with DCIS undergoing mastectomy were included. The primary outcome was whether this technique could reduce SLND. Secondary outcomes were number of SLNDs avoided, detection rate and procedure-related costs. Results: This was a preplanned interim analysis of 189 procedures. IBC was found in 47 and a secondary SLND was performed in 41 women. Thus, 78.3 per cent of patients avoided SLND (P<0.001). At reoperation, SPIO plus blue dye outperformed isotope and blue dye in detection of the sentinel node (40 of 40 versus 26 of 40 women; P<0.001). Costs were reduced by a mean of 24.5 per cent in women without IBC (3990 versus 5286; P<0.001). Conclusion: Marking the sentinel node with SPIO in women having surgery for DCIS was effective at avoiding unnecessary SLND in this study. Registration number: ISRCTN18430240 (http://www.isrctn.com).
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| 21. |
- Metcalfe, Daniel B., et al.
(författare)
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Patchy field sampling biases understanding of climate change impacts across the Arctic
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Ecology and Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 2:9, s. 1443-1448
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Effective societal responses to rapid climate change in the Arctic rely on an accurate representation of region-specific ecosystem properties and processes. However, this is limited by the scarcity and patchy distribution of field measurements. Here, we use a comprehensive, geo-referenced database of primary field measurements in 1,840 published studies across the Arctic to identify statistically significant spatial biases in field sampling and study citation across this globally important region. We find that 31% of all study citations are derived from sites located within 50 km of just two research sites: Toolik Lake in the USA and Abisko in Sweden. Furthermore, relatively colder, more rapidly warming and sparsely vegetated sites are under-sampled and under-recognized in terms of citations, particularly among microbiology-related studies. The poorly sampled and cited areas, mainly in the Canadian high-Arctic archipelago and the Arctic coastline of Russia, constitute a large fraction of the Arctic ice-free land area. Our results suggest that the current pattern of sampling and citation may bias the scientific consensuses that underpin attempts to accurately predict and effectively mitigate climate change in the region. Further work is required to increase both the quality and quantity of sampling, and incorporate existing literature from poorly cited areas to generate a more representative picture of Arctic climate change and its environmental impacts.
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