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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 5. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 6. |
- Anjana, Ranjit Mohan, et al.
(författare)
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Contrasting Associations Between Diabetes and Cardiovascular Mortality Rates in Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries: Cohort Study Data From 143,567 Individuals in 21 Countries in the PURE Study.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Diabetes care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1935-5548 .- 0149-5992. ; 43:12, s. 3094-3101
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We aimed to compare cardiovascular (CV) events, all-cause mortality, and CV mortality rates among adults with and without diabetes in countries with differing levels of income.The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study enrolled 143,567 adults aged 35-70 years from 4 high-income countries (HIC), 12 middle-income countries (MIC), and 5 low-income countries (LIC). The mean follow-up was 9.0 ± 3.0 years.Among those with diabetes, CVD rates (LIC 10.3, MIC 9.2, HIC 8.3 per 1,000 person-years, P < 0.001), all-cause mortality (LIC 13.8, MIC 7.2, HIC 4.2 per 1,000 person-years, P < 0.001), and CV mortality (LIC 5.7, MIC 2.2, HIC 1.0 per 1,000 person-years, P < 0.001) were considerably higher in LIC compared with MIC and HIC. Within LIC, mortality was higher in those in the lowest tertile of wealth index (low 14.7%, middle 10.8%, and high 6.5%). In contrast to HIC and MIC, the increased CV mortality in those with diabetes in LIC remained unchanged even after adjustment for behavioral risk factors and treatments (hazard ratio [95% CI] 1.89 [1.58-2.27] to 1.78 [1.36-2.34]).CVD rates, all-cause mortality, and CV mortality were markedly higher among those with diabetes in LIC compared with MIC and HIC with mortality risk remaining unchanged even after adjustment for risk factors and treatments. There is an urgent need to improve access to care to those with diabetes in LIC to reduce the excess mortality rates, particularly among those in the poorer strata of society.
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| 7. |
- Chow, Clara Kayei, et al.
(författare)
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Availability and affordability of medicines and cardiovascular outcomes in 21 high-income, middle-income and low-income countries.
- 2020
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Ingår i: BMJ global health. - : BMJ. - 2059-7908. ; 5:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We aimed to examine the relationship between access to medicine for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) among people at high risk of CVD in high-income countries (HICs), upper and lower middle-income countries (UMICs, LMICs) and low-income countries (LICs) participating in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study.We defined high CVD risk as the presence of any of the following: hypertension, coronary artery disease, stroke, smoker, diabetes or age >55 years. Availability and affordability of blood pressure lowering drugs, antiplatelets and statins were obtained from pharmacies. Participants were categorised: group 1-all three drug types were available and affordable, group 2-all three drugs were available but not affordable and group 3-all three drugs were not available. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with nested clustering at country and community levels, adjusting for comorbidities, sociodemographic and economic factors.Of 163 466 participants, there were 93 200 with high CVD risk from 21 countries (mean age 54.7, 49% female). Of these, 44.9% were from group 1, 29.4% from group 2 and 25.7% from group 3. Compared with participants from group 1, the risk of MACEs was higher among participants in group 2 (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.31), and among participants from group 3 (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.50).Lower availability and affordability of essential CVD medicines were associated with higher risk of MACEs and mortality. Improving access to CVD medicines should be a key part of the strategy to lower CVD globally.
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| 8. |
- Dagenais, Gilles R, et al.
(författare)
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Variations in common diseases, hospital admissions, and deaths in middle-aged adults in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 395:10226, s. 785-794
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To our knowledge, no previous study has prospectively documented the incidence of common diseases and related mortality in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income countries (LICs) with standardised approaches. Such information is key to developing global and context-specific health strategies. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to evaluate differences in the incidence of common diseases, related hospital admissions, and related mortality in a large contemporary cohort of adults from 21 HICs, MICs, and LICs across five continents by use of standardised approaches.The PURE study is a prospective, population-based cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years who have been enrolled from 21 countries across five continents. The key outcomes were the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases, cancers, injuries, respiratory diseases, and hospital admissions, and we calculated the age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence of these events per 1000 person-years.This analysis assesses the incidence of events in 162534 participants who were enrolled in the first two phases of the PURE core study, between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, and who were assessed for a median of 9·5 years (IQR 8·5-10·9). During follow-up, 11307 (7·0%) participants died, 9329 (5·7%) participants had cardiovascular disease, 5151 (3·2%) participants had a cancer, 4386 (2·7%) participants had injuries requiring hospital admission, 2911 (1·8%) participants had pneumonia, and 1830 (1·1%) participants had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cardiovascular disease occurred more often in LICs (7·1 cases per 1000 person-years) and in MICs (6·8 cases per 1000 person-years) than in HICs (4·3 cases per 1000 person-years). However, incident cancers, injuries, COPD, and pneumonia were most common in HICs and least common in LICs. Overall mortality rates in LICs (13·3 deaths per 1000 person-years) were double those in MICs (6·9 deaths per 1000 person-years) and four times higher than in HICs (3·4 deaths per 1000 person-years). This pattern of the highest mortality in LICs and the lowest in HICs was observed for all causes of death except cancer, where mortality was similar across country income levels. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of deaths overall (40%) but accounted for only 23% of deaths in HICs (vs 41% in MICs and 43% in LICs), despite more cardiovascular disease risk factors (as judged by INTERHEART risk scores) in HICs and the fewest such risk factors in LICs. The ratio of deaths from cardiovascular disease to those from cancer was 0·4 in HICs, 1·3 in MICs, and 3·0 in LICs, and four upper-MICs (Argentina, Chile, Turkey, and Poland) showed ratios similar to the HICs. Rates of first hospital admission and cardiovascular disease medication use were lowest in LICs and highest in HICs.Among adults aged 35-70 years, cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality globally. However, in HICs and some upper-MICs, deaths from cancer are now more common than those from cardiovascular disease, indicating a transition in the predominant causes of deaths in middle-age. As cardiovascular disease decreases in many countries, mortality from cancer will probably become the leading cause of death. The high mortality in poorer countries is not related to risk factors, but it might be related to poorer access to health care.Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
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| 9. |
- Kristensen, Steen D., et al.
(författare)
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Reperfusion therapy for ST elevation acute myocardial infarction 2010/2011 : current status in 37 ESC countries
- 2014
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 35:29, s. 1957-1970
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) is the preferred reperfusion therapy in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We conducted this study to evaluate the contemporary status on the use and type of reperfusion therapy in patients admitted with STEMI in the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) member countries. Methods and results A cross-sectional descriptive study based on aggregated country-level data on the use of reperfusion therapy in patients admitted with STEMI during 2010 or 2011. Thirty-seven ESC countries were able to provide data from existing national or regional registries. In countries where no such registries exist, data were based on best expert estimates. Data were collected on the use of STEMI reperfusion treatment and mortality, the numbers of cardiologists, and the availability of PPCI facilities in each country. Our survey provides a brief data summary of the degree of variation in reperfusion therapy across Europe. The number of PPCI procedures varied between countries, ranging from 23 to 884 per million inhabitants. Primary percutaneous coronary intervention and thrombolysis were the dominant reperfusion strategy in 33 and 4 countries, respectively. The mean population served by a single PPCI centre with a 24-h service 7 days a week ranged from 31 300 inhabitants per centre to 6 533 000 inhabitants per centre. Twenty-seven of the total 37 countries participated in a former survey from 2007, and major increases in PPCI utilization were observed in 13 of these countries. Conclusion Large variations in reperfusion treatment are still present across Europe. Countries in Eastern and Southern Europe reported that a substantial number of STEMI patients are not receiving any reperfusion therapy. Implementation of the best reperfusion therapy as recommended in the guidelines should be encouraged.
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| 10. |
- O'Donnell, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Joint association of urinary sodium and potassium excretion with cardiovascular events and mortality: prospective cohort study.
- 2019
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Ingår i: BMJ (Clinical research ed.). - : BMJ. - 1756-1833 .- 0959-8138. ; 364
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To evaluate the joint association of sodium and potassium urinary excretion (as surrogate measures of intake) with cardiovascular events and mortality, in the context of current World Health Organization recommendations for daily intake (<2.0 g sodium, >3.5 g potassium) in adults.International prospective cohort study.18 high, middle, and low income countries, sampled from urban and rural communities.103570 people who provided morning fasting urine samples.Association of estimated 24 hour urinary sodium and potassium excretion (surrogates for intake) with all cause mortality and major cardiovascular events, using multivariable Cox regression. A six category variable for joint sodium and potassium was generated: sodium excretion (low (<3 g/day), moderate (3-5 g/day), and high (>5 g/day) sodium intakes) by potassium excretion (greater/equal or less than median 2.1 g/day).Mean estimated sodium and potassium urinary excretion were 4.93 g/day and 2.12 g/day, respectively. After a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 7884 (6.1%) participants had died or experienced a major cardiovascular event. Increasing urinary sodium excretion was positively associated with increasing potassium excretion (unadjusted r=0.34), and only 0.002% had a concomitant urinary excretion of <2.0 g/day of sodium and >3.5 g/day of potassium. A J-shaped association was observed of sodium excretion and inverse association of potassium excretion with death and cardiovascular events. For joint sodium and potassium excretion categories, the lowest risk of death and cardiovascular events occurred in the group with moderate sodium excretion (3-5 g/day) and higher potassium excretion (21.9% of cohort). Compared with this reference group, the combinations of low potassium with low sodium excretion (hazard ratio 1.23, 1.11 to 1.37; 7.4% of cohort) and low potassium with high sodium excretion (1.21, 1.11 to 1.32; 13.8% of cohort) were associated with the highest risk, followed by low sodium excretion (1.19, 1.02 to 1.38; 3.3% of cohort) and high sodium excretion (1.10, 1.02 to 1.18; 29.6% of cohort) among those with potassium excretion greater than the median. Higher potassium excretion attenuated the increased cardiovascular risk associated with high sodium excretion (P for interaction=0.007).These findings suggest that the simultaneous target of low sodium intake (<2 g/day) with high potassium intake (>3.5 g/day) is extremely uncommon. Combined moderate sodium intake (3-5 g/day) with high potassium intake is associated with the lowest risk of mortality and cardiovascular events.
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| 11. |
- Palafox, Benjamin, et al.
(författare)
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Wealth and cardiovascular health: a cross-sectional study of wealth-related inequalities in the awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in high-, middle- and low-income countries.
- 2016
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Ingår i: International journal for equity in health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1475-9276. ; 15:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Effective policies to control hypertension require an understanding of its distribution in the population and the barriers people face along the pathway from detection through to treatment and control. One key factor is household wealth, which may enable or limit a household's ability to access health care services and adequately control such a chronic condition. This study aims to describe the scale and patterns of wealth-related inequalities in the awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in 21 countries using baseline data from the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology study.A cross-section of 163,397 adults aged 35 to 70years were recruited from 661 urban and rural communities in selected low-, middle- and high-income countries (complete data for this analysis from 151,619 participants). Using blood pressure measurements, self-reported health and household data, concentration indices adjusted for age, sex and urban-rural location, we estimate the magnitude of wealth-related inequalities in the levels of hypertension awareness, treatment, and control in each of the 21 country samples.Overall, the magnitude of wealth-related inequalities in hypertension awareness, treatment, and control was observed to be higher in poorer than in richer countries. In poorer countries, levels of hypertension awareness and treatment tended to be higher among wealthier households; while a similar pro-rich distribution was observed for hypertension control in countries at all levels of economic development. In some countries, hypertension awareness was greater among the poor (Sweden, Argentina, Poland), as was treatment (Sweden, Poland) and control (Sweden).Inequality in hypertension management outcomes decreased as countries became richer, but the considerable variation in patterns of wealth-related inequality - even among countries at similar levels of economic development - underscores the importance of health systems in improving hypertension management for all. These findings show that some, but not all, countries, including those with limited resources, have been able to achieve more equitable management of hypertension; and strategies must be tailored to national contexts to achieve optimal impact at population level.
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| 12. |
- Wang, Chuangshi, et al.
(författare)
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Association of estimated sleep duration and naps with mortality and cardiovascular events: a study of 116632 people from 21 countries.
- 2019
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Ingår i: European heart journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1522-9645 .- 0195-668X. ; 40:20, s. 1620-1629
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To investigate the association of estimated total daily sleep duration and daytime nap duration with deaths and major cardiovascular events.We estimated the durations of total daily sleep and daytime naps based on the amount of time in bed and self-reported napping time and examined the associations between them and the composite outcome of deaths and major cardiovascular events in 116632 participants from seven regions. After a median follow-up of 7.8years, we recorded 4381 deaths and 4365 major cardiovascular events. It showed both shorter (≤6h/day) and longer (>8h/day) estimated total sleep durations were associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome when adjusted for age and sex. After adjustment for demographic characteristics, lifestyle behaviours and health status, a J-shaped association was observed. Compared with sleeping 6-8h/day, those who slept ≤6h/day had a non-significant trend for increased risk of the composite outcome [hazard ratio (HR), 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.20]. As estimated sleep duration increased, we also noticed a significant trend for a greater risk of the composite outcome [HR of 1.05 (0.99-1.12), 1.17 (1.09-1.25), and 1.41 (1.30-1.53) for 8-9h/day, 9-10h/day, and >10h/day, Ptrend < 0.0001, respectively]. The results were similar for each of all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events. Daytime nap duration was associated with an increased risk of the composite events in those with over 6h of nocturnal sleep duration, but not in shorter nocturnal sleepers (≤6h).Estimated total sleep duration of 6-8h per day is associated with the lowest risk of deaths and major cardiovascular events. Daytime napping is associated with increased risks of major cardiovascular events and deaths in those with >6h of nighttime sleep but not in those sleeping ≤6h/night.
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| 13. |
- Yusuf, Salim, et al.
(författare)
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Modifiable risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 155722 individuals from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 395:10226, s. 795-808
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global estimates of the effect of common modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality are largely based on data from separate studies, using different methodologies. The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study overcomes these limitations by using similar methods to prospectively measure the effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality across 21 countries (spanning five continents) grouped by different economic levels.In this multinational, prospective cohort study, we examined associations for 14 potentially modifiable risk factors with mortality and cardiovascular disease in 155722 participants without a prior history of cardiovascular disease from 21 high-income, middle-income, or low-income countries (HICs, MICs, or LICs). The primary outcomes for this paper were composites of cardiovascular disease events (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) and mortality. We describe the prevalence, hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for cardiovascular disease and mortality associated with a cluster of behavioural factors (ie, tobacco use, alcohol, diet, physical activity, and sodium intake), metabolic factors (ie, lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity), socioeconomic and psychosocial factors (ie, education, symptoms of depression), grip strength, and household and ambient pollution. Associations between risk factors and the outcomes were established using multivariable Cox frailty models and using PAFs for the entire cohort, and also by countries grouped by income level. Associations are presented as HRs and PAFs with 95% CIs.Between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, 155722 participants were enrolled and followed up for measurement of risk factors. 17249 (11·1%) participants were from HICs, 102680 (65·9%) were from MICs, and 35793 (23·0%) from LICs. Approximately 70% of cardiovascular disease cases and deaths in the overall study population were attributed to modifiable risk factors. Metabolic factors were the predominant risk factors for cardiovascular disease (41·2% of the PAF), with hypertension being the largest (22·3% of the PAF). As a cluster, behavioural risk factors contributed most to deaths (26·3% of the PAF), although the single largest risk factor was a low education level (12·5% of the PAF). Ambient air pollution was associated with 13·9% of the PAF for cardiovascular disease, although different statistical methods were used for this analysis. In MICs and LICs, household air pollution, poor diet, low education, and low grip strength had stronger effects on cardiovascular disease or mortality than in HICs.Most cardiovascular disease cases and deaths can be attributed to a small number of common, modifiable risk factors. While some factors have extensive global effects (eg, hypertension and education), others (eg, household air pollution and poor diet) vary by a country's economic level. Health policies should focus on risk factors that have the greatest effects on averting cardiovascular disease and death globally, with additional emphasis on risk factors of greatest importance in specific groups of countries.Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
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| 14. |
- Joseph, Philip G, et al.
(författare)
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Global variations in the prevalence, treatment, and impact of atrial fibrillation in a multi-national cohort of 153,152 middle-aged individuals.
- 2021
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Ingår i: Cardiovascular research. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1755-3245 .- 0008-6363. ; 117:6, s. 1523-1531
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To compare the prevalence of electrocardiogram (ECG)-documented atrial fibrillation (or flutter) (AF) across eight regions of the world, and to examine anti-thrombotic use and clinical outcomes.Baseline ECGs were collected in 153,152 middle-aged participants (ages 35 to 70 years) to document AF in two community-based studies, spanning 20 countries. Medication use and clinical outcome data (mean follow up of 7.4 years) were available in one cohort. Cross sectional analyses were performed to document the prevalence of AF and medication use, and associations between AF and clinical events were examined prospectively. Mean age of participants was 52.1 years, and 57.7% were female. Age and sex-standardized prevalence of AF varied 12-fold between regions; with the highest in North America, Europe, China and Southeast Asia (270-360 cases per 100,000 persons); and lowest in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia (30-60 cases per 100,000 persons)(p<0.001). Compared with low-income countries (LICs), AF prevalence was 7-fold higher in middle-income countries (MICs) and 11-fold higher in high-income countries (HICs)(p<0.001). Differences in AF prevalence remained significant after adjusting for traditional AF risk factors. In LICs/MICs, 24% of participants with AF and a CHADS2 score ≥1 received anti-thrombotic therapy, compared with 85% in HICs. AF was associated with an increased risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR: 2.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49-3.52) and death (HR: 2.97; 95% CI 2.25-3.93); with similar rates in different country income levels.Large variations in AF prevalence occur in different regions and country income settings, but this is only partially explained by traditional AF risk factors. Anti-thrombotic therapy is infrequently used in poorer countries despite the high risk of stroke associated with AF.We examined atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence in 153,152 middle-aged participants spanning 20 countries. Age and sex-standardized prevalence of AF varied by as much as 12-fold between regions; highest in North America, Europe, China and Southeast Asia (270-360 cases per 100,000 persons); and lowest in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia (30-60 cases per 100,000 persons)(p<0.001); and by as much as 11-fold between groups of countries at different income levels (p<0.001). Global variations were poorly explained by traditional AF risk factors. Future studies are needed to understand the predominant determinants driving the variation in AF burden across different regions of the world.
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| 15. |
- Khetan, Aditya K, et al.
(författare)
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Variations in the association of height with mortality, cardiovascular disease and cancer in low-, middle- and high-income countries.
- 2022
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Ingår i: International journal of epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1464-3685 .- 0300-5771. ; 51:4, s. 1304-1316
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Final adult height is a useful proxy measure of childhood nutrition and disease burden. Tall stature has been previously associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality, decreased risk of major cardiovascular events and an increased risk of cancer. However, these associations have primarily been derived from people of European and East Asian backgrounds, and there are sparse data from other regions of the world.The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 21 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35-70 years. Height was measured in a standardized manner, without shoes, to the nearest 0.1 cm. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years (interquartile range 8.3-12.0), we assessed the risk of all-cause mortality, major cardiovascular events and cancer.A total of 154 610 participants, enrolled since January 2003, with known height and vital status, were included in this analysis. Follow-up event data until March 2021 were used; 11 487 (7.4%) participants died, whereas 9291 (6.0%) participants had a major cardiovascular event and 5873 (3.8%) participants had a new diagnosis of cancer. After adjustment, taller individuals had lower hazards of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) per 10-cm increase in height 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.96] and major cardiovascular events (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-1.00), whereas the hazard of cancer was higher in taller participants (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.18-1.28). The interaction p-values between height and country-income level for all three outcomes were <0.001, suggesting that the association with height varied by country-income level for these outcomes. In low-income countries, height was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84-0.92) and major cardiovascular events (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.93). There was no association of height with these outcomes in middle- and high-income countries. The respective HRs for cancer in low-, middle- and high-income countries were 1.14 (95% CI 0.99-1.32), 1.12 (95% CI 1.04-1.22) and 1.20 (95% CI 1.14-1.26).Unlike high- and middle-income countries, tall stature has a strong inverse association with all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events in low-income countries. Improved childhood physical development and advances in population-wide cardiovascular treatments in high- and middle-income countries may contribute to this gap. From a life-course perspective, we hypothesize that optimizing maternal and child health in low-income countries may improve rates of premature mortality and cardiovascular events in these countries, at a population level.
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| 16. |
- Miller, Victoria, et al.
(författare)
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Associations of the glycaemic index and the glycaemic load with risk of type 2 diabetes in 127594 people from 20 countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - 2213-8587 .- 2213-8595. ; 12, s. 330-338
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The association between the glycaemic index and the glycaemic load with type 2 diabetes incidence is controversial. We aimed to evaluate this association in an international cohort with diverse glycaemic index and glycaemic load diets. Methods: The PURE study is a prospective cohort study of 127 594 adults aged 35–70 years from 20 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. The glycaemic index and the glycaemic load were estimated on the basis of the intake of seven categories of carbohydrate-containing foods. Participants were categorised into quintiles of glycaemic index and glycaemic load. The primary outcome was incident type 2 diabetes. Multivariable Cox Frailty models with random intercepts for study centre were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs). Findings: During a median follow-up of 11·8 years (IQR 9·0–13·0), 7326 (5·7%) incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred. In multivariable adjusted analyses, a diet with a higher glycaemic index was significantly associated with a higher risk of diabetes (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; HR 1·15 [95% CI 1·03–1·29]). Participants in the highest quintile of the glycaemic load had a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared with those in the lowest quintile (HR 1·21, 95% CI 1·06–1·37). The glycaemic index was more strongly associated with diabetes among individuals with a higher BMI (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; HR 1·23 [95% CI 1·08–1·41]) than those with a lower BMI (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; 1·10 [0·87–1·39]; p interaction=0·030). Interpretation: Diets with a high glycaemic index and a high glycaemic load were associated with a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes in a multinational cohort spanning five continents. Our findings suggest that consuming low glycaemic index and low glycaemic load diets might prevent the development of type 2 diabetes. Funding: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the Article.
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| 17. |
- Narula, Neeraj, et al.
(författare)
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Associations of Antibiotics, Hormonal Therapies, Oral Contraceptives, and Long-Term NSAIDS With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Results From the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association. - : Elsevier BV. - 1542-7714. ; 21:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several medications have been suspected to contribute to the etiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study assessed the association between medication use and the risk of developing IBD using the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology cohort.This was a prospective cohort study of 133,137 individuals between the ages of 20 and 80 from 24 countries. Country-specific validated questionnaires documented baseline and follow-up medication use. Participants were followed up prospectively at least every 3 years. The main outcome was the development of IBD, including Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Short-term (baseline but not follow-up use) and long-term use (baseline and subsequent follow-up use) were evaluated. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% CIs.During a median follow-up period of 11.0 years (interquartile range, 9.2-12.2 y), there were 571 incident IBD cases (143 CD and 428 UC). Incident IBD was associated significantly with baseline antibiotic (aOR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.67-4.73; P= .0001) and hormonal medication use (aOR, 4.43; 95% CI, 1.78-11.01; P= .001). Among females, previous or current oral contraceptive use also was associated with IBD development (aOR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.70-2.77; P < .001). Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug users also were observed to have increased odds of IBD (aOR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.23-2.64; P= .002), which was driven by long-term use (aOR, 5.58; 95% CI, 2.26-13.80; P < .001). All significant results were consistent in direction for CD and UC with low heterogeneity.Antibiotics, hormonal medications, oral contraceptives, and long-term nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use were associated with increased odds of incident IBD after adjustment for covariates.
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| 18. |
- Santosa, Ailiana, et al.
(författare)
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Psychosocial Risk Factors and Cardiovascular Disease and Death in a Population-Based Cohort From 21 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries.
- 2021
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Ingår i: JAMA network open. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2574-3805. ; 4:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Stress may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Most studies on stress and CVD have been conducted in high-income Western countries, but whether stress is associated with CVD in other settings has been less well studied.To investigate the association of a composite measure of psychosocial stress and the development of CVD events and mortality in a large prospective study involving populations from 21 high-, middle-, and low-income countries across 5 continents.This population-based cohort study used data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study, collected between January 2003 and March 2021. Participants included individuals aged 35 to 70 years living in 21 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Data were analyzed from April 8 to June 15, 2021.All participants were assessed on a composite measure of psychosocial stress assessed at study entry using brief questionnaires concerning stress at work and home, major life events, and financial stress.The outcomes of interest were stroke, major coronary heart disease (CHD), CVD, and all-cause mortality.A total of 118706 participants (mean [SD] age 50.4 [9.6] years; 69842 [58.8%] women and 48864 [41.2%] men) without prior CVD and with complete baseline and follow-up data were included. Of these, 8699 participants (7.3%) reported high stress, 21797 participants (18.4%) reported moderate stress, 34958 participants (29.4%) reported low stress, and 53252 participants (44.8%) reported no stress. High stress, compared with no stress, was more likely with younger age (mean [SD] age, 48.9 [8.9] years vs 51.1 [9.8] years), abdominal obesity (2981 participants [34.3%] vs 10599 participants [19.9%]), current smoking (2319 participants [26.7%] vs 10477 participants [19.7%]) and former smoking (1571 participants [18.1%] vs 3978 participants [7.5%]), alcohol use (4222 participants [48.5%] vs 13222 participants [24.8%]), and family history of CVD (5435 participants [62.5%] vs 20255 participants [38.0%]). During a median (IQR) follow-up of 10.2 (8.6-11.9) years, a total of 7248 deaths occurred. During the course of follow-up, there were 5934 CVD events, 4107 CHD events, and 2880 stroke events. Compared with no stress and after adjustment for age, sex, education, marital status, location, abdominal obesity, hypertension, smoking, diabetes, and family history of CVD, as the level of stress increased, there were increases in risk of death (low stress: hazard ratio [HR], 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03-1.16]; high stress: 1.17 [95% CI, 1.06-1.29]) and CHD (low stress: HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.01-1.18]; high stress: HR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.08-1.42]). High stress, but not low or moderate stress, was associated with CVD (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.08-1.37]) and stroke (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.09-1.56]) after adjustment.This cohort study found that higher psychosocial stress, measured as a composite score of self-perceived stress, life events, and financial stress, was significantly associated with mortality as well as with CVD, CHD, and stroke events.
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| 19. |
- Walli-Attaei, Marjan, et al.
(författare)
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Metabolic, behavioural, and psychosocial risk factors and cardiovascular disease in women compared with men in 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: an analysis of the PURE study.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 400:10355, s. 811-821
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a paucity of data on the prevalence of risk factors and their associations with incident cardiovascular disease in women compared with men, especially from low-income and middle-income countries.In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study, we enrolled participants from the general population from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries and followed them up for approximately 10 years. We recorded information on participants' metabolic, behavioural, and psychosocial risk factors. For this analysis, we included participants aged 35-70 years at baseline without a history of cardiovascular disease, with at least one follow-up visit. The primary outcome was a composite of major cardiovascular events (cardiovascular disease deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). We report the prevalence of each risk factor in women and men, their hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with major cardiovascular disease. The PURE study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03225586.In this analysis, we included 155724 participants enrolled and followed-up between Jan 5, 2005, and Sept 13, 2021, (90934 [58·4%] women and 64790 [41·6%] men), with a median follow-up of 10·1 years (IQR 8·5-12·0). At study entry, the mean age of women was 49·8 years (SD 9·7) compared with 50·8 years (9·8) in men. As of data cutoff (Sept 13, 2021), 4280 major cardiovascular disease events had occurred in women (age-standardised incidence rate of 5·0 events [95% CI 4·9-5·2] per 1000 person-years) and 4911 in men (8·2 [8·0-8·4] per 1000 person-years). Compared with men, women presented with a more favourable cardiovascular risk profile, especially at younger ages. The HRs for metabolic risk factors were similar in women and men, except for non-HDL cholesterol, for which high non-HDL cholesterol was associated with an HR for major cardiovascular disease of 1·11 (95% CI 1·01-1·21) in women and 1·28 (1·19-1·39) in men, with a consistent pattern for higher risk among men than among women with other lipid markers. Symptoms of depression had a HR of 1·09 (0·98-1·21) in women and 1·42 (1·25-1·60) in men. By contrast, consumption of a diet with a PURE score of 4 or lower (score ranges from 0 to 8), was more strongly associated with major cardiovascular disease in women (1·17 [1·08-1·26]) than in men (1·07 [0·99-1·15]). The total PAFs associated with behavioural and psychosocial risk factors were greater in men (15·7%) than in women (8·4%) predominantly due to the larger contribution of smoking to PAFs in men (ie, 1·3% [95% CI 0·5-2·1] in women vs 10·7% [8·8-12·6] in men).Lipid markers and depression are more strongly associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease in men than in women, whereas diet is more strongly associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease in women than in men. The similar associations of other risk factors with cardiovascular disease in women and men emphasise the importance of a similar strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in men and women.Funding sources are listed at the end of the Article.
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| 20. |
- Wood, David A., et al.
(författare)
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Timing of Staged Nonculprit Artery Revascularization in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction COMPLETE Trial
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 74:22, s. 2713-2723
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND The COMPLETE (Complete vs Culprit-only Revascularization to Treat Multi-vessel Disease After Early PCI for STEMI) trial demonstrated that staged nonculprit lesion percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) reduced major cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and multivessel coronary artery disease (CAD). OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of nonculprit-lesion PCI timing on major CV outcomes and also the time course of the benefit of complete revascularization. METHODS Following culprit-lesion PCI, 4,041 patients with STEMI and multivessel CAD were randomized to staged nonculprit-lesion PCI or culprit-lesion only PCI. Randomization was stratified according to investigator-planned timing of nonculprit-lesion PCI: during or after the index hospitalization. The first coprimary outcome was the composite of CV death or myocardial infarction (MI). In pre-specified analyses, hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated for each time stratum. Landmark analyses of the entire population were performed within 45 days and after 45 days. RESULTS For nonculprit-lesion PCI planned during the index hospitalization (actual time: median 1 day), CV death or MI was reduced with complete revascularization compared with culprit-lesion only PCI (HR: 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59 to 1.00). For nonculprit lesion PCI planned to occur after hospital discharge (actual time: median 23 days), CV death or MI was also reduced with complete revascularization (HR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.97; interaction p = 0.62). Landmark analyses demonstrated an HR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.59 to 1.24) during the first 45 days and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.54 to 0.89) from 45 days to the end of follow-up for intended nonculprit lesion PCI versus culprit lesion only PCI. CONCLUSIONS Among STEMI patients with multivessel disease, the benefit of complete revascularization over culprit-lesion only PCI was consistent irrespective of the investigator-determined timing of nonculprit-lesion intervention. The benefit of complete revascularization on hard clinical outcomes emerged mainly over the long term. (C) 2019 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.
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