| 1. |
- Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P., et al.
(författare)
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State of the climate in 2014
- 2015
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 96
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most of the dozens of essential climate variables monitored each year in this report continued to follow their long-term trends in 2014, with several setting new records. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-the major greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m-2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago. Accompanying the record-high greenhouse gas concentrations was nominally the highest annual global surface temperature in at least 135 years of modern record keeping, according to four independent observational analyses. The warmth was distributed widely around the globe's land areas, Europe observed its warmest year on record by a large margin, with close to two dozen countries breaking their previous national temperature records; many countries in Asia had annual temperatures among their 10 warmest on record; Africa reported above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014; Australia saw its third warmest year on record, following record heat there in 2013; Mexico had its warmest year on record; and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to observe a below-average annual temperature. But it was the oceans that drove the record global surface temperature in 2014. Although 2014 was largely ENSO-neutral, the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean where SST anomalies signaled a transition from a negative to positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the winter of 2013/14, unusually warm water in the northeast Pacific was associated with elevated ocean heat content anomalies and elevated sea level in the region. Globally, upper ocean heat content was record high for the year, reflecting the continued increase of thermal energy in the oceans, which absorb over 90% of Earth's excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to both ocean warming and land ice melt contributions, global mean sea level in 2014 was also record high and 67 mm greater than the 1993 annual mean, when satellite altimetry measurements began. Sea surface salinity trends over the past decade indicate that salty regions grew saltier while fresh regions became fresher, suggestive of an increased hydrological cycle over the ocean expected with global warming. As in previous years, these patterns are reflected in 2014 subsurface salinity anomalies as well. With a now decade-long trans-basin instrument array along 26°N, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows a decrease in transport of-4.2 ± 2.5 Sv decade-1. Precipitation was quite variable across the globe. On balance, precipitation over the world's oceans was above average, while below average across land surfaces. Drought continued in southeastern Brazil and the western United States. Heavy rain during April-June led to devastating floods in Canada's Eastern Prairies. Above-normal summer monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern coast of West Africa, while drier conditions prevailed over the eastern Sahel. Generally, summer monsoon rainfall over eastern Africa was above normal, except in parts of western South Sudan and Ethiopia. The south Asian summer monsoon in India was below normal, with June record dry. Across the major tropical cyclone basins, 91 named storms were observed during 2014, above the 1981-2010 global average of 82. The Eastern/Central Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins experienced significantly above-normal activity in 2014; all other basins were either at or below normal. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific was the basin's most since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms, despite the absence of El Niño conditions during both years. In higher latitudes and at higher elevations, increased warming continued to be visible in the decline of glacier mass balance, increasing permafrost temperatures, and a deeper thawing layer in seasonally frozen soil. In the Arctic, the 2014 temperature over land areas was the fourth highest in the 115-year period of record and snow melt occurred 20-30 days earlier than the 1998-2010 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet experienced extensive melting in summer 2014. The extent of melting was above the 1981-2010 average for 90% of the melt season, contributing to the second lowest average summer albedo over Greenland since observations began in 2000 and a record-low albedo across the ice sheet for August. On the North Slope of Alaska, new record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the sixth lowest since satellite records began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years. Conversely, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent countered its declining trend and set several new records in 2014, including record high monthly mean sea ice extent each month from April to November. On 20 September, a record large daily Antarctic sea ice extent of 20.14 × 106 km2 occurred. The 2014 Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole was 20.9 million km2 when averaged from 7 September to 13 October, the sixth smallest on record and continuing a decrease, albeit statistically insignificant, in area since 1998.
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| 2. |
- Ades, M., et al.
(författare)
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GLOBAL CLIMATE
- 2020
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Ingår i: BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 101:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Andres-Martin, Miguel, et al.
(författare)
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Uncertainty in surface wind speed projections over the Iberian Peninsula: CMIP6 GCMs versus a WRF-RCM
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. - 0077-8923 .- 1749-6632. ; 1529:1, s. 101-108
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study assessed the projected near-surface wind speed (SWS) changes and variability over the Iberian Peninsula for the 21st century. Here, we compared Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models (GCMs) with a higher spatial resolution regional climate model (RCM; ∼20km), known as WRF-CESM2, which was created by a dynamic downscaling of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our analysis found that the GCMs tended to overestimate observed SWS for 1985–2014, while the higher spatial resolution of the WRF-CESM2 did not improve the accuracy and underestimated the SWS magnitude. GCMs project a decline of SWS under highshared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) greenhouse concentrations, such as SSP370 and SSP585, while an interdecadal oscillation appears in SSP126 and SSP245 for the end of the century. The WRF-CESM2 under SSP585 predicts the opposite increasing SWS. Our results suggest that 21st-century projections of SWS are uncertain even for regionalized products and should be taken with caution.
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| 4. |
- Arndt, DS, et al.
(författare)
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INTRODUCTION
- 2019
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 100:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 5. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 6. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 7. |
- Azorin-Molina, Cesar, et al.
(författare)
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An approach to homogenize daily peak wind gusts: An application to the Australian series
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 39:4, s. 2260-2277
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2018 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Daily Peak Wind Gust (DPWG) time series are important for the evaluation of wind-related hazard risks to different socioeconomic and environmental sectors. Yet, wind time series analyses can be impacted by several artefacts, both temporally and spatially, which may introduce inhomogeneities that mislead the study of their decadal variability and trends. The aim of this study is to present a strategy in the homogenization of a challenging climate extreme such as the DPWG using 548 time series across Australia for 1941–2016. This automatic homogenization of DPWG is implemented in the recently developed Version 3.1 of the R package Climatol. This approach is an advance in homogenization of climate records as it identifies 353 break points based on monthly data, splits the daily series into homogeneous subperiods, and homogenizes them without needing the monthly corrections. The major advantages of this homogenization strategy are its ability to: (a) automatically homogenize a large number of DPWG series, including short-term ones and without needing site metadata (e.g., the change in observational equipment in 2010/2011 was correctly identified); (b) use the closest reference series even not sharing a common period with candidate series or presenting missing data; and (c) supply homogenized series, correcting anomalous data (quality control by spatial coherence), and filling in all the missing data. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind speed data were also trialled in aiding homogenization given the station density was very low during the early decades of the record; however, reanalysis data did not improve the homogenization. Application of this approach found a reduced range of DPWG trends based on site data, and an increased negative regional trend of this climate extreme, compared to raw data and homogenized data using NCEP/NCAR. The analysis produced the first homogenized DPWG dataset to assess and attribute long-term variability of extreme winds across Australia.
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| 8. |
- Azorin-Molina, Cesar, et al.
(författare)
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Biases in wind speed measurements due to anemometer changes
- 2023
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Research. - 0169-8095. ; 289
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This research presents a case study of the biases and discontinuities that were introduced in observed long-term mean wind-speed and gust data-series due to anemometer changes in a meteorological station in northern Spain, operated by the Spanish State Meteorological Agency: San Sebastian-Igueldo. Field and wind-tunnel experiments with predefined conditions have been presented in the literature, however this research uses a real case study to assess the impact of anemometer changes on wind speed measurements due to three factors being: (i) the 3-cup anemometer model (SEAC vs. THIES companies); (ii) sensor height (∼19.95 m vs. ∼20.45 m) and (iii) sensor age (20-years old vs. new). Our results show (a) substantial biases in the measured wind speed and daily peak wind gusts, with the new THIES anemometer reporting stronger surface winds than the old SEAC anemometer; (b) opposing biases under weak (negative) and moderate-strong (positive) winds; and (c) significant breakpoints in the long-term wind data-series, which highlight the importance of data homogenization. National Weather Services and climate assessment groups will benefit from these findings since errors in wind speed and gust measurements can be minimized by implementing systematic observation protocols. Robust anemometer observations provide a basis for accurate quantification of the magnitude of changes and the variability of surface winds.
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| 9. |
- Azorin-Molina, Cesar, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating anemometer drift: A statistical approach to correct biases in wind speed measurement
- 2018
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Ingår i: Atmospheric research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-8095. ; 203, s. 175-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent studies on observed wind variability have revealed a decline (termed “stilling”) of near-surface wind speed during the last 30–50 years over many mid-latitude terrestrial regions, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The well-known impact of cup anemometer drift (i.e., wear on the bearings) on the observed weakening of wind speed has been mentioned as a potential contributor to the declining trend. However, to date, no research has quantified its contribution to stilling based on measurements, which is most likely due to lack of quantification of the ageing effect. In this study, a 3-year field experiment (2014–2016) with 10-minute paired wind speed measurements from one new and one malfunctioned (i.e., old bearings) SEAC SV5 cup anemometer which has been used by the Spanish Meteorological Agency in automatic weather stations since mid-1980s, was developed for assessing for the first time the role of anemometer drift on wind speed measurement. The results showed a statistical significant impact of anemometer drift on wind speed measurements, with the old anemometer measuring lower wind speeds than the new one. Biases show a marked temporal pattern and clear dependency on wind speed, with both weak and strong winds causing significant biases. This pioneering quantification of biases has allowed us to define two regression models that correct up to 37% of the artificial bias in wind speed due to measurement with an old anemometer.
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| 10. |
- Azorin-Molina, Cesar, et al.
(författare)
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Recent trends in wind speed across Saudi Arabia, 1978-2013: a break in the stilling
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418. ; 38
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We analyse recent trends and variability of observed near-surface wind speed from 19 stations across Saudi Arabia (SA) for 1978-2013. The raw wind speed data set was subject to a robust homogenization protocol, and the stations were then classified under three categories: (1) coast, (2) inland and (3) mountain stations. The results reveal a statistically significant (p<0.05) reduction of wind speed of -0.058m s(-1) dec(-1) at annual scale across SA, with decreases in winter (-0.100m s(-1) dec(-1)) and spring (-0.066m s(-1) dec(-1)) also detected, being non-significant in summer and autumn. The coast, inland and mountain series showed similar magnitude and significance of the declining trends across all SA series, except for summer when a decoupled variability and opposite trends of wind speed between the coast and inland series (significant declines: -0.101m s(-1) dec(-1) and -0.065m s(-1) dec(-1), respectively) and the high-elevation mountain series (significant increase: +0.041m s(-1) dec(-1)) were observed. Even though wind speed declines dominated across much of the country throughout the year, only a small number of stations showed statistically significant negative trends in summer and autumn. Most interestingly, a break in the stilling was observed in the last 12-year (2002-2013) period (+0.057m s(-1) dec(-1); not significant) compared to the significant slowdown detected in the previous 24-year (1978-2001) period (-0.089m s(-1) dec(-1)). This break in the slowdown of winds, even followed by a non-significant recovery trend, occurred in all seasons (and months) except for some winter months. Atmospheric circulation plays a key role in explaining the variability of winds, with the North Atlantic Oscillation positively affecting the annual wind speed, the Southern Oscillation displaying a significant negative relationship with winds in winter, spring and autumn, and the Eastern Atlantic negatively modulating winds in summer.
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| 11. |
- Azorin-Molina, Cesar, et al.
(författare)
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Wind speed variability over the Canary Islands, 1948–2014: focusing on trend differences at the land–ocean interface and below–above the trade-wind inversion layer
- 2018
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 50:11-12, s. 4061-4081
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study simultaneously examines wind speed trends at the land–ocean interface, and below–above the trade-wind inversion layer in the Canary Islands and the surrounding Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: a key region for quantifying the variability of trade-winds and its response to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Two homogenized data sources are used: (1) observed wind speed from nine land-based stations (1981–2014), including one mountain weather station (Izaña) located above the trade-wind inversion layer; and (2) simulated wind speed from two atmospheric hindcasts over ocean (i.e., SeaWind I at 30 km for 1948–2014; and SeaWind II at 15 km for 1989–2014). The results revealed a widespread significant negative trend of trade-winds over ocean for 1948–2014, whereas no significant trends were detected for 1989–2014. For this recent period wind speed over land and ocean displayed the same multi-decadal variability and a distinct seasonal trend pattern with a strengthening (late spring and summer; significant in May and August) and weakening (winter–spring–autumn; significant in April and September) of trade-winds. Above the inversion layer at Izaña, we found a predominance of significant positive trends, indicating a decoupled variability and opposite wind speed trends when compared to those reported in boundary layer. The analysis of the Trade Wind Index (TWI), the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the Eastern Atlantic Index (EAI) demonstrated significant correlations with the wind speed variability, revealing that the correlation patterns of the three indices showed a spatio-temporal complementarity in shaping wind speed trends across the Eastern North Atlantic.
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| 12. |
- Chen, Aifang, 1990, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing reliability of precipitation data over the Mekong River Basin: A comparison of ground-based, satellite, and reanalysis datasets
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418. ; 38:11, s. 4314-4334
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accurate precipitation data are the basis for hydro-climatological studies. As a highly populated river basin, with the biggest inland fishery in Southeast Asia, freshwater dynamics is extremely important for the Mekong River Basin (MB). This study focuses on evaluating the reliability of existing gridded precipitation datasets both from satellite and reanalysis, with a ground observations-based gridded precipitation dataset as the reference. Two satellite products (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM] and the Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using an Artificial Neural NetworkClimate Data Record [PERSIANN-CDR]), as well as three reanalysis products (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications [MERRA2], the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis [ERA-Interim], and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis [CFSR]) were compared with the Asian PrecipitationHighly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) over the MB. The APHRODITE was chosen as the reference for the comparison because it was developed based on ground observations and has also been selected as reference data in previous studies. Results show that most of the assessed datasets are able to capture the major climatological characteristics of precipitation in the MB for the 10-year study period (1998-2007). Generally, both satellite data (TRMM and PERSIANN-CDR) show higher reliability than reanalysis products at both spatial and temporal scales across the MB, with the TRMM outperforming when compared to the PERSIANN-CDR. For the reanalysis products, MERRA2 is more reliable in terms of temporal variability, but with some underestimation of precipitation. The other two reanalysis products CFSR and ERA-Interim are relatively unreliable due to large overestimations. CFSR is better positioned to capture the spatial variability of precipitation, while ERA-Interim shows inconsistent spatial patterns but more realistically resembles the daily precipitation probability. These findings have practical implications for future hydro-climatological studies.
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| 13. |
- Chen, Aifang, 1990, et al.
(författare)
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Tropical cyclone rainfall in the Mekong River Basin for 1983–2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-8095. ; 226, s. 66-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As home to about 70 million people, the Mekong River Basin (MRB), located in Mainland Southeast Asia, is often influenced by tropical cyclones (TCs) landfalling. The TCs not only cause flood and storm hazards, but also play important roles in providing freshwater resource and welcomed sediment transports. Our study focuses on the climatology of TCs and associated rainfall (TCR) in the MRB for 1983–2016. Results show that: (i) the mean landfall occurrence of TCs is 6.2 yr −1 , leading to 36.7 mm yr −1 of annual mean TCR (2.5% of the annual total precipitation), which mainly occur in monsoon-TC season (i.e., June–November); (ii) TCs highly concentrate on the lower eastern MRB, generating the largest TCR contribution of 12.4% to the annual total precipitation; (iii) the annual mean contribution of TCs induced extreme precipitation - R20mm and R50mm (days of heavy precipitation rate ≥20 mm day −1 and ≥50 mm day −1 , respectively) - to that from annual total precipitation is large in the lower eastern MRB; (iv) over 60% of the basin area is influenced by TCR on average; and (v) a significant weakening trend of the TC frequency has been observed. The present findings lay a foundation for further in-depth research of the potential influence of the dynamic TCs and the associated rainfall in the MRB. © 2019
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| 14. |
- Corell, D., et al.
(författare)
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Influences of synoptic situation and teleconnections on fog-water collection in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula, 2003-2012
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 40:7, s. 3297-3317
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fog-water collection has been widely analysed for its quantification and potential uses; however, there are few studies assessing the synoptic conditions and large-scale teleconnection patterns that affect its occurrence. Focusing on the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula, this work aims to analyse the synoptic patterns, both at surface level and 850 hPa geopotential height, that most likely to favour fog-water collection, and to quantify the relationship between fog-water collection and the NAOi (North Atlantic Oscillation index), MOi (Mediterranean Oscillation index) as well as WeMOi (Western Mediterranean Oscillation index) teleconnection patterns. For this purpose, daily fog-water observations from a dense network of 23 fog-water collectors located along the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula for 2003-2012 were analysed in relation to synoptic patterns and the three-teleconnection indices. The major findings are: (a) The most favourable synoptic patterns for fog-water collection are maritime advections carrying humidity from the Mediterranean basin, and cyclonic circulations, whereas anti-cyclonic situations generally led to large number of foggy days with low fog-collection rates. (b) In terms of winds at 850 hPa, the most favourable low-level flows for fog-water collection are associated with strong winds (>5.1 m s(-1)) from the Mediterranean. Atlantic winds generally cause a greater number of fog days than Mediterranean winds, with less fog-water collection rates. (c) WeMOi has the greatest influence on fog-water collection, mainly during winter and spring months, with statistically significant negative relationships for most of the stations. MOi also shows a great influence, with a large number of statistically significant negative correlations, mainly during the same months as WeMOi. Lastly, NAOi presented the lowest and no significant negative correlations with fog-water collection.
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| 15. |
- Dominguez-Castro, F., et al.
(författare)
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Mapping seasonal and annual extreme precipitation over the Peruvian Andes
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418. ; 38:15, s. 5459-5475
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Seasonal and annual extreme precipitation over the Peruvian Andes have been mapped for the first time. Maps were developed using the most complete, quality-controlled and homogenous daily precipitation records in Peru from 1973 to 2016. For each observed rain gauge series, we defined parameters as the de-clustered daily intensity, total precipitation duration, total magnitude and dry-spell length. Then, we fitted the seasonal and annual series of these variables to a Generalized-Pareto distribution using a peak-over-threshold approach. We estimated the distribution parameters and validated the performance of different thresholds to obtain the best estimation of precipitation probability. We also mapped the distribution parameters obtained for the different meteorological stations using the universal kriging algorithm, accounting for elevation and the distance to the Pacific Ocean as co-variables. The accuracy of the extreme precipitation maps for a period of 25 and 50 years were validated using a jack-knife approach. Some of the maps show strong uncertainty given the random spatial distribution of the variables as a consequence of the complex topography and climate of the region. Nevertheless, the maps show a useful general assessment of the spatial distribution of the precipitation hazard probability over the region, providing a good agreement with the estimations obtained in the meteorological stations for some variables and time periods analysed. Extreme precipitation maps over this high-complex terrain of Peru are of key importance for flood risk assessment, water resources management, crop yield, soil conservation and human settlements.
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| 16. |
- Dunn, R. J. H., et al.
(författare)
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GLOBAL CLIMATE : State of the Climate in 2020
- 2021
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 102:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 17. |
- Dunn, Robert J.H., et al.
(författare)
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Reduction in reversal of global stilling arising from correction to encoding of calm periods
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Communications. - : IOP Publishing. - 2515-7620. ; 4:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe an undocumented change in how calm periods in near-surface wind speed (and direction) observations have been encoded in a subset of global datasets of sub-daily data after 2013. This has resulted in the under-estimation of the number of calm periods for meteorological stations across much of Asia and Europe. Hence average wind speeds after 2013 have been over-estimated, affecting the assessment of changes in global stilling and reversal phenomena after this date. By addressing this encoding change we show that globally, since 2010, wind speeds have recovered by around 30% less than previously thought.
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| 18. |
- Estrela, M. J., et al.
(författare)
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Spatio-temporal variability of fog-water collection in the eastern Iberian Peninsula: 2003–2012
- 2019
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-8095. ; 226, s. 87-101
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Among the different inputs involved in the hydrological system, fog water measured by man-made passive devices is one of the most unknown components, although it could be an additional water resource for specific environmental applications (forest restoration, forest firefighting, etc.). Focusing on the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula, the aim of this work is to quantify fog-water collected by a 24-fog-stations network spread across three latitudinal sectors with different locations (coastal, pre-littoral and inland), and to determine the most productive sites. Measurements from the network show that distance-to-sea, latitude or elevation differences between stations are factors affecting fog-water collection potential. The network, based on passive cylindrical omnidirectional fog-water collectors, was active during the period 2003–2012. In addition to fog collection, other environmental variables such as rainfall, wind speed and wind direction, air temperature and relative humidity were measured. These ancillary data were used in a specific data reduction technique to eliminate the simultaneous rainwater component from the fog water measurements, and in the retrieval of the optimum mean wind directions to harvest fog-water efficiently. It was concluded that (i) positive differences in elevation allow greater collection rates, even under 100 m differences; (ii) optimum harvesting wind directions for inland locations are in line with the orientation of the existent valley coupled with the shortest path to the coastline, their collected fog-water volumes being generally smaller than those near the coast; (iii) fog-water collection at coastal locations present more dispersed optimal wind directions, ranging from north to the direction of the most immediate coastline; and (iv) there is a practically null dependence of the optimum mean wind direction on seasonality, but a strong dependence of fog-water captured volumes, however. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
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| 19. |
- Fang, Keyan, et al.
(författare)
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The potential to use variations in tree-ring geometric center to estimate past wind speed change
- 2022
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Ingår i: Natural Hazards Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 2666-5921. ; 2:2, s. 132-137
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tree radial growth is characterized by not only the annual ring-width increment but also shifts in the tree-ring geometric center (TRGC) if subjected to asymmetric external forcing, such as gravity downslope or prevailing winds. Previous dendrochronological studies have used the asymmetric growth derived from tree-ring widths to reconstruct wind speed changes. Here we propose a novel method that uses quantitative TRGC measurements to estimate wind speed. We investigated TRGC shifts in northeast China, where the prevailing westerly winds are strong and persistent. We found that the TRGC showed significant correlations (r = 0.64, p < 0.01) with wind speed in May–September. The higher tree geometry sensitivity to wind speed obtained with the new method compared to previous ones, suggests the possibility of reconstructing historical wind change and variability in prevailing winds using TRGC. In addition, by correcting tree-ring radius according to their TRGC shifts, the basal area increment (BAI) was calculated. Our new BAI estimation provided stronger correlations with climate than both the standard tree-ring width chronology and a traditional BAI estimation. We suggest that future dendrochronological studies should consider TRGC shifts to increase the accuracy in climate reconstructions.
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| 20. |
- Kaiqiang, Deng, et al.
(författare)
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Changes of Southern Hemisphere westerlies in the future warming climate
- 2022
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-8095. ; 270
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Southern Hemisphere westerlies (SHWs) play a key role in regulating global climate and ocean circulation, but their future changes under low to high greenhouse gas forcings remain unclear. This study investigates the long-term trends in strength and position of the SHWs and their linkage with human activities, based on the ERA5 reanalysis and model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that the SHWs have intensified and shifted poleward in the recent decades, and are projected to experience divergent trends in strength and position during the 21st century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Forced by SSP245, 370, and 585, which represent the middle to high greenhouse gas forcings, the SHWs will continue to strengthen and move southward in 2015–2099, with the largest trends induced by SSP585. Nevertheless, forced by SSP126, which implies a low greenhouse gas forcing in the future, the ongoing trends in strength and position of the SHWs will be interrupted and even reversed. Further investigation reveals that the anthropogenic forcing could have affected and will likely influence the SHWs by modulating meridional atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. In particular, the Southern Annular Mode and the tropical Pacific convection play crucial roles in the changes of SHWs. This study links human activities to the changes in SHWs, providing important implications for climate change and its mitigation. © 2022 The Authors
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| 21. |
- Kaiqiang, Deng, et al.
(författare)
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Global Near-Surface Wind Speed Changes over the Last Decades Revealed by Reanalyses and CMIP6 Model Simulations
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 34:6, s. 2219-2234
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Near-surface (10 m) wind speed (NWS) plays a crucial role in many areas, including hydrological cycles, wind energy production, and air pollution, but what drives its multidecadal changes is still unclear. Using reanalysis datasets and model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP6), this study investigates recent trends in the annual mean NWS. The results show that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) terrestrial NWS experienced significant (p < 0.1) decreasing trends during 1980–2010, when the Southern Hemisphere (SH) ocean NWS was characterized by significant (p < 0.1) upward trends. However, during 2010–19, global NWS trends shifted in their sign: NWS trends over the NH land became positive, and trends over the SH tended to be negative. We propose that the strengthening of SH NWS during 1980–2010 was associated with an intensified Hadley cell over the SH, while the declining of NH land NWS could have been caused by changes in atmospheric circulation, alteration of vegetation and/or land use, and the accelerating Arctic warming. The CMIP6 model simulations further demonstrate that the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming plays an important role in triggering the NWS trends over the two hemispheres during 1980–2010 through modulating meridional atmospheric circulation. This study also points at the importance of anthropogenic GHG forcing and the natural Pacific decadal oscillation to the long-term trends and multidecadal variability in global NWS, respectively.
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| 22. |
- Kaiqiang, Deng, et al.
(författare)
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Shifting of summertime weather extremes in Western Europe during the last decade
- 2022
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Ingår i: Advances in Climate Change Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 1674-9278. ; 13:2, s. 218-227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past decades, droughts and heatwaves frequently appeared in Western Europe (45°–65°N, 10°W–20°E) during boreal summer, causing huge impacts on human society and ecosystems. Although these extremes are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity under a warming climate, our knowledge of their interdecadal variations and causes is relatively limited. Here we show that the droughts and heatwaves in Western Europe have shifted in their trends in the last decade: for 1979–2012, wind speed and precipitation have both strengthened in Western Europe; for 2012–2020, however, Western Europe have experienced declined wind speed, decreased precipitation, and higher air temperature, leading to more frequent droughts and heatwaves there. Recent changes in the WE climate and extremes are related to the variations of the North Atlantic westerly jet stream. In 1979–2012 (2012–2020), the westerly jet stream shifted equatorward (poleward), which enhanced (reduced) transportation of water vapor fluxes from the North Atlantic Ocean to the European land areas, resulting in wetter (drier) surface in Western Europe. Further analysis suggests that phase changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation could have played a key role in regulating the position of the jet stream, providing important implications for decadal predictions of the Western Europe summertime climate and weather extremes. © 2022 The Authors
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| 23. |
- Kaiqiang, Deng, et al.
(författare)
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Terrestrial Stilling Projected to Continue in the Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitudes
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earths Future. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2328-4277. ; 10:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The near-surface wind speed over land has declined in recent decades, a trend known as terrestrial stilling (TS). However, recent studies have indicated a reversal of the TS during the last decade, triggering renovated interest in the future wind speed changes. This study examines the TS over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) land areas and explores its future changes under Model Inter-comparison Projection Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The results show that the NH mid-latitude TS will likely continue during the whole 21st century under mid-to-high greenhouse warmings (SSPs-245, 370, and 585). Nevertheless, if the world reduces carbon emissions substantially (SSP-126), the TS will be interrupted and likely reversed after the mid-21st century. The projected TS shows seasonal differences, with the largest (smallest) decreasing trends of wind speed in boreal summer (winter). Moreover, the TS reversal during the last decade is suggested as a multi-decadal fluctuation related to the Pacific and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillations. In addition, this study proposes that increased upper-air warming in the future climate could play a key role in reducing the NH mid-latitude surface wind speed. The continuing TS provides strong implications for the near-surface environment and wind energy development, particularly for countries in the NH mid-latitudes.
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| 24. |
- Khorchani, M., et al.
(författare)
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Average annual and seasonal Land Surface Temperature, Spanish Peninsular
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Maps. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1744-5647. ; 14:2, s. 465-475
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The first long-term Land Surface Temperature (LST) maps for the Peninsular Spain at annual and seasonal time scales for 1981-2015 is presented in this work. A robust protocol for correcting and calibrating NOAA-AVHRR images and computing LST datasets at the spatial resolution of 1.1km has been used. Simultaneously, maximum air temperature (Tmax) maps at the same spatial resolution have been produced using data from meteorological stations. The comparison between the two datasets resulted in statistically significant spatial correlations at annual and seasonal scales. Finally, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data were also compared with the obtained LST datasets and the results showed significant negative correlations between the two variables, especially in summer.
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| 25. |
- Khorchani, M., et al.
(författare)
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Trends in LST over the peninsular Spain as derived from the AVHRR imagery data
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global and Planetary Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8181. ; 166, s. 75-93
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study analyzes the spatio-temporal variability and trends of land surface temperature (LST) over peninsular Spain, considering all the available historical satellite imagery data from the NOAA-AVHRR product from July 1981 to June 2015 and explores whether changes in LST are related to the observed changes in air temperature, solar radiation and land cover. We found that LST showed a significant increase between 1982 and 2014, with an average increase on the order of 0.71 °C decade−1, being stronger during summertime (1.53 °C decade−1). The results also indicate a strong spatial coherence between LST and NDVI changes. The areas that experienced an increase in the LST were spatially consistent with those areas with no changes or even a dominant decrease in vegetation coverage. In addition, the strong increase of LST is coherent with observations of the recent radiative forcing affecting Spain, particularly during summertime. The confidence of the obtained LST trends during summer is also reinforced by the spatial differences recorded in trends, in addition to the differences found between land cover types. Specifically, the magnitude of this increase was much higher in the dryland non-permanent agricultural areas, which are usually harvested during summer, when soil is dominantly nude. In contrast, in well-developed forests, the magnitude of LST was much lower. Our results on the observed LST trends and their spatial patterns can contribute to better understanding of the recent eco-hydrological processes in peninsular Spain. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
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