| 1. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 3. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(författare)
-
Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
-
Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
|
|
| 4. |
- Bekele, Maheteme, et al.
(författare)
-
Tumor and immune cell profiling in breast cancer using highly multiplexed imaging mass cytometry single-cell technology demonstrates tumor heterogeneity and immune phenotypic abnormality in Ethiopian women
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Cancer Research. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 0008-5472 .- 1538-7445. ; 80:21 Suppl.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background: Tumor heterogeneity represents a complex challenge to cancer treatment, disease recurrence, and patient survival. Imaging mass cytometry (IMC) is an emerging proteomic tool for cancer profiling in tumor tissue samples. IMC enables digital image analysis by multiplexed immunostaining of cells and proteins within tissue and preserves spatial relations within tumor environment. We have applied IMC based approach to study the heterogeneity of invasive breast carcinoma protein expression pattern in formalin fixed paraffin embedded tissues.Methods: A total of 10 region of interest (ROI) derived from 5 patients with primary invasive breast carcinoma representing three molecular subclasses (HR+/HER2-,HER2+/HR- and TNBC) were stained with a 30-marker IMC metal labeled antibody panel (α-SMA, EGFR, p53, CD33, CD16, CD163, CD11b, PDL1, CD31, CD45, D44,Vimentin, FoxP3, CD4, ECadherin, CD68, CD20, CD8a, Cytokeratin7, PD1, GranzymeB, Ki67, ColTypeI, CD3, CD45RO, HLADR, DARC & CD11c). Tissue imaging was done by quantifying the abundance of bound antibody with a Hyperion IMC. MCD Viewer was used for visualization purpose and to export raw 16-bit tiff images for segmentation on CellProfiler. Segmentation masks were combined with the individual tiff files to extract single-cell information from each individual image. HistoCAT was applied to perform unbiased clustering of cell populations using the PhenoGraph algorithm and clustered cell populations was overlaid on t-SNE plot. The relative marker expression was used to generate heat-maps and each cluster was manually assigned a phenotype based on its expression profile.Results: The t-SNE generated from each ROI revealed different distinct cell populations and we report the presence of diverse tumor and immune cell populations in our samples. The (min, max) number of PhenoGraph clustered tumor cell populations in HR+/HER2-, HER2+ and TNBC Cases were (5,8) (7,9) and (5,7) respectively. Similarly, the (min, max) number of PhenoGraph clustered immune cell populations in HR+/HER2-, HER2+ and TNBC Cases were (5,8) (7,9) and (5,7) respectively. We also document the presence of inter and intra-tumor heterogeniety in expression of PD1 and PDL1 in all the tumor subtypes studied. Additionally, we report a phenotypic abnormality in the immune cell populations identified with dual or triple markers expression of the canonical CD antigens of T-Cells, B-Cells and macrophages.Conclusion: The current study demonstrates high-dimensional visualization with the simultaneous analysis of epithelial, immune, and stromal components using IMC can be used to explore cell populations in tumor tissue to quantify tumor heterogeneity or identification of novel clustering patterns that has potential for translational research and clinical practice. Significance: This study presents the potential of Imaging Mass Cytometry and single cell analysis algorithms in multiplex high throughput tumor tissue studies.
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
| 9. |
- Gebregzabher, Endale, et al.
(författare)
-
Detection of High- and Low-Risk HPV DNA in Archived Breast Carcinoma Tissues from Ethiopian Women
- 2021
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Breast Cancer. - : Hindawi Publishing Corporation. - 2090-3170 .- 2090-3189. ; 2021
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Human papilloma virus (HPV) is involved in the development of cancer of the cervix, mouth and throat, anus, penis, vulva, or vagina, but it has not been much considered as a cause of breast cancer. Recently, a number of investigations have linked breast cancer to viral infections. High-risk HPV types, predominantly HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, and 59, are established as carcinogens in humans. In this study we aimed to detect 19 high-risk and 9 low-risk HPVs from archived breast tumor tissue among Ethiopian women.Methods: In this study, 75 breast cancer patients from Tikur Anbassa Specialized Hospital in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) were included. HPV detection and genotyping were done using the novel Anyplex™ II HPV28 Detection Assay at the Orebro University Hospital, Sweden. The Anyplex™ II PCR System detects 19 high-risk HPV types (16, 18, 26, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 53, 56, 58, 59, 66, 68, 69, 73, and 82) and 9 low-risk HPV types (6, 11, 40, 42, 43, 44, 54, 61, and 70). IHC for p16 was done using an automated system, the Dako Autostainer Link.Results: Out of the 75 valid tests, two were found to be positive (2.7%) for HPV. One of the cases was positive for the high-risk HPV16 genotype while the other was positive both for the high-risk HPV39 and the low-risk HPV6. The cell cycle protein p16 was highly expressed in the case positive for the high-risk HPV16, but it was not expressed in the case positive for HPV39.Conclusion: The prevalence of HPV is low in Ethiopian breast cancer patients, but the role played by HPV in breast carcinogenesis among Ethiopian breast cancer patients cannot be commented based on these observations.
|
|
| 10. |
- Hadgu, Endale, et al.
(författare)
-
Breast cancer in Ethiopia : evidence for geographic difference in the distribution of molecular subtypes in Africa
- 2018
-
Ingår i: BMC Women's Health. - : BioMed Central. - 1472-6874. ; 18:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease with several morphological and molecular subtypes. Widely accepted molecular classification system uses assessment of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and proliferation marker Ki67. Few studies have been conducted on the incidence and molecular types of breast cancer in Sub-Saharan Africa. Previous studies mainly from Western and Central Africa, showed breast cancer to occur at younger ages and to present with aggressive features, such as high-grade, advanced stage and triple-negative phenotype (negative for ER, PR and HER2). Limited data from East Africa including Ethiopia however shows hormone receptor negative tumors to account for a lower proportion of all breast cancers than has been reported from elsewhere in Africa.METHODS: In this study from Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, 114 breast cancer patients diagnosed between 2012 and 2015 were enrolled. ER, PR, Ki67 and HER2 receptor status were assessed using immunohistochemistry from tissue microarrays. FISH was used for assessment of gene amplification in all equivocal tumor samples and for confirmation in HER2-enriched cases.RESULTS: The distribution of molecular subtypes was: Luminal A: 40%; Luminal B: 26%; HER2-enriched: 10%; TNBC: 23%. ER were positive in 65% of all tumors and 43% the cases were positive for PR. There was statistically significant difference in median age at diagnosis between the molecular subtypes (P < 0.05). There was a bimodal distribution of molecular subtypes in different age ranges with Luminal B subtype being more common at younger ages (median = 36) and Luminal A subtype more prevalent at older ages (median = 42). There were no statistically significant differences in tumor grade, histology, and stage between the molecular subtypes of breast cancer.CONCLUSION: The present study detected Luminal A breast cancer to be the most common subtype and reveals a relatively low rate of hormone receptor negative and TNBC. Our findings and results from other East African studies suggest geographic variability in the distribution of the molecular subtypes of breast cancer in Africa and hence have important clinical and policy implications for breast cancer control and treatment in Ethiopia.
|
|
| 11. |
- Hadgu, Endale, et al.
(författare)
-
Distribution and characteristics of androgen receptor (AR) in breast cancer among women in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia : A cross sectional study
- 2020
-
Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library Science. - 1932-6203. ; 15:5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evaluation of the role of androgen receptor (AR) in the biology of breast cancer is an emerging area of research. There are compelling evidences that AR expression may be used to further refine breast cancer molecular subtyping with prognostic and therapeutic implications. Many studies indicated co-expression of AR with the hormonal receptors in breast cancer has a favorable prognosis. AR is also investigated by many researchers as a potential therapeutic target in treatment of breast cancer. Studies on the frequency and distribution of AR in breast cancer among Africans is barely available. Given the heightened interest to understand its role in breast cancer, we determined AR expression and assessed its association with clinicopathological parameters among Ethiopian women. In this study, 112 newly diagnosed patient with invasive breast cancer at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital were enrolled. Immunohistochemical assessment of AR, ER, PR, Ki67 and HER2 were performed using tissue microarrays (TMA) constructed from their primary tumor block. Out of the 112 participants, 91 (81%) were positive for AR expression and the remaining 21 participants (19%) were negative for AR expression. Expression of AR in ER+, HER2+ and TNBC cases were 93%, 83% and 48% respectively. Our study reveals AR is expressed in a significant number of breast cancers patients and this may indicate that breast cancers cases in Ethiopia have favorable prognosis and could benefit from progresses in AR targeted treatments. Since AR expression has important consequences on the prognosis and treatment of breast cancer, further studies with an increased number of participants is necessary to confirm our reports.
|
|
| 12. |
- Johansson, Maria Ulrika, et al.
(författare)
-
Ecosystem restoration in fire-managed savanna woodlands : Effects on biodiversity, local livelihoods and fire intensity
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 50, s. 190-202
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ethiopia aims to restore 15 million ha degraded forests and woodlands, but effects on the potentially contrasting goals of long-term carbon storage, biodiversity and sustainable livelihoods are unknown. To quantify the effects of grazing exclusion on vegetation and fire behaviour, we established six 30 x 30 m fenced exclosures with grazed controls, in a mesic wooded savanna. Experimental burns were done after 1.5 years. Tree seedlings were few but more common inside fences. Field layer cover and biomass increased inside fences, and grass species increased in numbers and cover. Fire intensity was higher inside fences, killing shrubs and saplings but not mature trees. Interviews confirmed that overgrazing has resulted in cool fires, causing shrub encroachment. High-intensity fires occurred in the 1980s after a zoonotic disease killed most livestock. Short-term increase in carbon storage through fire and grazing exclusion may lead to loss of pasture, and in the long-term increased wildfire risk.
|
|
| 13. |
|
|
| 14. |
|
|
| 15. |
- Alvarez, E. M., et al.
(författare)
-
The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Lancet Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-2045. ; 23:1, s. 27-52
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
| 16. |
|
|
| 17. |
- Berbyuk Lindström, Nataliya, 1978, et al.
(författare)
-
Person- and Family-Centeredness in Ethiopian Cancer Care: Improving Communication, Ethics, Decision Making and Health
- 2020
-
Ingår i: JMIR Research Protocols. - : JMIR Publications Inc.. - 1929-0748. ; 9:5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Cancer is a major burden in Ethiopia. The Oncology Department of Tikur Anbessa (Black Lion) Specialized Hospital (TASH) in Addis Ababa is the country's sole specialist unit for cancer care. With only a handful of oncologists, a lack of resources, and a huge patient load, the work is challenging, especially in terms of achieving effective and ethical patient consultations. Patients, usually accompanied by family members, often wait for a long time to receive medical attention and frequently depart without treatment. Handling consultations effectively is essential in order to help patients as much as possible within such limitations. OBJECTIVE: The project addresses three main aims: (1) to enhance and expand the understanding of communicative and associated ethical challenges in Ethiopian cancer care; (2) to enhance and expand the understanding of the implications and use of person- and family-centered solutions to address such communicative challenges in practice, and (3) to plan and evaluate interventions in this area. METHODS: This project develops and consolidates a research collaboration to better understand and mitigate the communicative challenges in Ethiopian cancer care, with a focus on the handling and sharing of decision making, and ethical tensions between patients, staff, and family. Using theoretical models from linguistics, health communication, and health care ethics, multiple sources of data will be analyzed. Data sources currently include semi-structured interviews with the Ethiopian staff, patients, and family caregivers (91), survey data on cancer awareness (150) and attitudes to breaking bad news (450), and video-recordings of medical consultations (45). In addition, we will also develop clinical and methodological solutions to formulate educational interventions. RESULTS: The project was awarded funding by the Swedish Research Council in December 2017 for the period 2018-2021. The research ethics board in Sweden and in Ethiopia approved the conduct of the project in May 2018. The results from the studies will be published in 2020 and 2021. CONCLUSIONS: The project is a first step towards producing unique and seminal knowledge for the specific context of Ethiopia in the area of physician-patient communication research and ethics. It contributes to an understanding of the complexity around the role of family and ethical challenges in relation to patient involvement and decision making in Ethiopia. Improved knowledge in this area can provide a fundamental model for ways to improve cancer care in many other low resource settings in Africa and the Middle East, which share central cultural prerequisites (such as a strong patriarchal family structure, combined with strong and devout religiosity). The project will also serve to develop greater understanding about current challenges in Western health systems associated with greater family and patient participation in decision making. In addition, the project will also contribute to improving the education of Ethiopian health professionals working in cancer care by developing a training program to help them better understand and respond to identified challenges associated with communication.
|
|
| 18. |
- Fitzmauric, C., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017 : A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
- 2019
-
Ingår i: JAMA Oncology. - : American Medical Association. - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 5:12, s. 1749-1768
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.
|
|
| 19. |
- Fullman, N., et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 20. |
- Gebreegziabher, Senedu Bekele, et al.
(författare)
-
Assessment of maternal and child health care services performance in the context of COVID-19 pandemic in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia : evidence from routine service data
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Reproductive Health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1742-4755. ; 19:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In many settings, health care service provision has been modified to managing COVID-19 cases, and this has been affecting the provision of maternal and child health services. The aim of this study was to assess trends in selected maternal and child health services performance in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A cross-sectional data review was conducted in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from April to May 2021. Routine health management information system database was reviewed from Addis Ababa Health Bureau for the period from July 2019 to March 2021 across all quarters. Proportion and mean with standard deviation were computed. T-test was used to assess statistically significant differences in services mean performance. Results: Postnatal care visit, new contraceptives accepters, safe abortion care and number of under-5 years old children treated for pneumonia significantly decreased by 9.3% (p-value 0.04), 20.3% (p-value 0.004), 23.7% (p-value 0.01) and 77.2% (p-value < 0.001), respectively during the first 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the previous 8 months’ average performance. The trends in Antenatal care first visit, new contraceptive accepters, pentavalent-3 vaccination and under-five children treated for pneumonia began to decline in January to March 2020, a quarter when the COVID-19 pandemic began; with accelerated declines in April to June 2020 following national lockdown. The trends for the stated services began to increase during July–September 2020, the last quarter of national lockdown. Contraceptive accepters and pentavalent-1 vaccination continued to decline and showed no recovery until January–March 2021 when this study was completed. Conclusions: Most of the maternal and child health services performance declined following the onset of COVID-19 pandemic and national lockdown, and most of the services began recovering during July–September 2020, the last quarter of national lockdown. However, new and repeat contraceptive accepters and pentavalent-1 recipients continue to decline and show no recovery during end of the study period. Implementing COVID-19 prevention measures and assuring the community about the safety of service delivery is imperative to ensure continuity of the maternal and child health services. Regular monitoring and evaluation of services performance is required to identify slowly recovering services and respond to potentially volatile changes during the COVID-19 pandemic.
|
|
| 21. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
-
Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
|
|
| 22. |
- Kinyoki, DK, et al.
(författare)
-
Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 577:7789, s. 231-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0–59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3–5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization’s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications.
|
|
| 23. |
- Kinyoki, DK, et al.
(författare)
-
Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:5, s. 750-759
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
|
|
| 24. |
|
|
| 25. |
- Mulu, Andargachew, et al.
(författare)
-
The challenges of COVID-19 testing in Africa : The Ethiopian experience
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Pan African Medical Journal. - : Pan African Medical Journal. - 1937-8688. ; 38, s. 1-4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is spreading rapidly and creating a huge economic, social and public health challenge worldwide. Although currently an effective vaccine is ready, its distribution is limited, and hence the only currently available lever to reduce transmission is to identify and isolate individuals who are contagious. Thus, testing for SARS CoV-2 has a paramount importance. However, testing in many African countries including Ethiopia has multidimensional growing challenges. Here, we tried to identify, categorize and summarize the challenges of COVID19 testing in Africa from Ethiopian experience.
|
|
