| 1. |
- Wang, H. D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 2. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 4. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Wang, HD, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 388:10053, s. 1725-1774
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 8. |
- Grun, E., et al.
(författare)
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The 2016 Feb 19 outburst of comet 67P/CG : an ESA Rosetta multi-instrument study
- 2016
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 462, s. S220-S234
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- On 2016 Feb 19, nine Rosetta instruments serendipitously observed an outburst of gas and dust from the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Among these instruments were cameras and spectrometers ranging from UV over visible to microwave wavelengths, in situ gas, dust and plasma instruments, and one dust collector. At 09: 40 a dust cloud developed at the edge of an image in the shadowed region of the nucleus. Over the next two hours the instruments recorded a signature of the outburst that significantly exceeded the background. The enhancement ranged from 50 per cent of the neutral gas density at Rosetta to factors > 100 of the brightness of the coma near the nucleus. Dust related phenomena (dust counts or brightness due to illuminated dust) showed the strongest enhancements (factors > 10). However, even the electron density at Rosetta increased by a factor 3 and consequently the spacecraft potential changed from similar to-16 V to -20 V during the outburst. A clear sequence of events was observed at the distance of Rosetta ( 34 km from the nucleus): within 15 min the Star Tracker camera detected fast particles (similar to 25 m s(-1)) while 100 mu m radius particles were detected by the GIADA dust instrument similar to 1 h later at a speed of 6 m s(-1). The slowest were individual mm to cm sized grains observed by the OSIRIS cameras. Although the outburst originated just outside the FOV of the instruments, the source region and the magnitude of the outburst could be determined.
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| 9. |
- Burch, J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Electron-scale measurements of magnetic reconnection in space
- 2016
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Ingår i: Science. - : AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 352:6290, s. 1189-
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental physical process in plasmas whereby stored magnetic energy is converted into heat and kinetic energy of charged particles. Reconnection occurs in many astrophysical plasma environments and in laboratory plasmas. Using measurements with very high time resolution, NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission has found direct evidence for electron demagnetization and acceleration at sites along the sunward boundary of Earth's magnetosphere where the interplanetary magnetic field reconnects with the terrestrial magnetic field. We have (i) observed the conversion of magnetic energy to particle energy; (ii) measured the electric field and current, which together cause the dissipation of magnetic energy; and (iii) identified the electron population that carries the current as a result of demagnetization and acceleration within the reconnection diffusion/dissipation region.
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| 10. |
- Torbert, R. B., et al.
(författare)
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Electron-scale dynamics of the diffusion region during symmetric magnetic reconnection in space
- 2018
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Ingår i: Science. - : AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 362:6421, s. 1391-1395
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Magnetic reconnection is an energy conversion process that occurs in many astrophysical contexts including Earth's magnetosphere, where the process can be investigated in situ by spacecraft. On 11 July 2017, the four Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft encountered a reconnection site in Earth's magnetotail, where reconnection involves symmetric inflow conditions. The electron-scale plasma measurements revealed (i) super-Alfvenic electron jets reaching 15,000 kilometers per second; (ii) electron meandering motion and acceleration by the electric field, producing multiple crescent-shaped structures in the velocity distributions; and (iii) the spatial dimensions of the electron diffusion region with an aspect ratio of 0.1 to 0.2, consistent with fast reconnection. The well-structured multiple layers of electron populations indicate that the dominant electron dynamics are mostly laminar, despite the presence of turbulence near the reconnection site.
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| 11. |
- Newton, J. N., et al.
(författare)
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Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2257-2274
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. Methods We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. Findings Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0-5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9-76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9-81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3-43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9-27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1-2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7-41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1-12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4-12·0]). Interpretation Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England. © 2015 Newton et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY.
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| 12. |
- Ergun, R. E., et al.
(författare)
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Drift waves, intense parallel electric fields, and turbulence associated with asymmetric magnetic reconnection at the magnetopause
- 2017
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 44:7, s. 2978-2986
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Observations of magnetic reconnection at Earth's magnetopause often display asymmetric structures that are accompanied by strong magnetic field (B) fluctuations and large-amplitude parallel electric fields (E-||). The B turbulence is most intense at frequencies above the ion cyclotron frequency and below the lower hybrid frequency. The B fluctuations are consistent with a thin, oscillating current sheet that is corrugated along the electron flow direction (along the X line), which is a type of electromagnetic drift wave. Near the X line, electron flow is primarily due to a Hall electric field, which diverts ion flow in asymmetric reconnection and accompanies the instability. Importantly, the drift waves appear to drive strong parallel currents which, in turn, generate large-amplitude (similar to 100mV/m) E-|| in the form of nonlinear waves and structures. These observations suggest that turbulence may be common in asymmetric reconnection, penetrate into the electron diffusion region, and possibly influence the magnetic reconnection process.
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| 13. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 14. |
- Ergun, R. E., et al.
(författare)
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Magnetospheric Multiscale observations of large-amplitude, parallel, electrostatic waves associated with magnetic reconnection at the magnetopause
- 2016
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : Blackwell Publishing. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 43:11, s. 5626-5634
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report observations from the Magnetospheric Multiscale satellites of large-amplitude, parallel, electrostatic waves associated with magnetic reconnection at the Earth's magnetopause. The observed waves have parallel electric fields (E-||) with amplitudes on the order of 100mV/m and display nonlinear characteristics that suggest a possible net E-||. These waves are observed within the ion diffusion region and adjacent to (within several electron skin depths) the electron diffusion region. They are in or near the magnetosphere side current layer. Simulation results support that the strong electrostatic linear and nonlinear wave activities appear to be driven by a two stream instability, which is a consequence of mixing cold (<10eV) plasma in the magnetosphere with warm (similar to 100eV) plasma from the magnetosheath on a freshly reconnected magnetic field line. The frequent observation of these waves suggests that cold plasma is often present near the magnetopause.
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| 15. |
- Burch, J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Localized Oscillatory Energy Conversion in Magnetopause Reconnection
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 45:3, s. 1237-1245
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data from the NASA Magnetospheric Multiscale mission are used to investigate asymmetric magnetic reconnection at the dayside boundary between the Earth's magnetosphere and the solar wind. High-resolution measurements of plasmas and fields are used to identify highly localized (similar to 15 electron Debye lengths) standing wave structures with large electric field amplitudes (up to 100 mV/m). These wave structures are associated with spatially oscillatory energy conversion, which appears as alternatingly positive and negative values of J . E. For small guide magnetic fields the wave structures occur in the electron stagnation region at the magnetosphere edge of the electron diffusion region. For larger guide fields the structures also occur near the reconnection X-line. This difference is explained in terms of channels for the out-of-plane current (agyrotropic electrons at the stagnation point and guide field-aligned electrons at the X-line).
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| 16. |
- Lavraud, B., et al.
(författare)
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Currents and associated electron scattering and bouncing near the diffusion region at Earth's magnetopause
- 2016
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 43:7, s. 3042-3050
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Based on high-resolution measurements from NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale mission, we present the dynamics of electrons associated with current systems observed near the diffusion region of magnetic reconnection at Earth's magnetopause. Using pitch angle distributions (PAD) and magnetic curvature analysis, we demonstrate the occurrence of electron scattering in the curved magnetic field of the diffusion region down to energies of 20 eV. We show that scattering occurs closer to the current sheet as the electron energy decreases. The scattering of inflowing electrons, associated with field-aligned electrostatic potentials and Hall currents, produces a new population of scattered electrons with broader PAD which bounce back and forth in the exhaust. Except at the center of the diffusion region the two populations are collocated and appear to behave adiabatically: the inflowing electron PAD focuses inward (toward lower magnetic field), while the bouncing population PAD gradually peaks at 90 degrees away from the center (where it mirrors owing to higher magnetic field and probable field-aligned potentials).
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| 17. |
- Le Contel, O., et al.
(författare)
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Lower Hybrid Drift Waves and Electromagnetic Electron Space-Phase Holes Associated With Dipolarization Fronts and Field-Aligned Currents Observed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission During a Substorm
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 2169-9380 .- 2169-9402. ; 122:12, s. 12236-12257
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We analyze two ion scale dipolarization fronts associated with field-aligned currents detected by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission during a large substorm on 10 August 2016. The first event corresponds to a fast dawnward flow with an antiparallel current and could be generated by the wake of a previous fast earthward flow. It is associated with intense lower hybrid drift waves detected at the front and propagating dawnward with a perpendicular phase speed close to the electric drift and the ion thermal velocity. The second event corresponds to a flow reversal: from southwward/dawnward to northward/duskward associated with a parallel current consistent with a brief expansion of the plasma sheet before the front crossing and with a smaller lower hybrid drift wave activity. Electromagnetic electron phase-space holes are detected near these low-frequency drift waves during both events. The drift waves could accelerate electrons parallel to the magnetic field and produce the parallel electron drift needed to generate the electron holes. Yet we cannot rule out the possibility that the drift waves are produced by the antiparallel current associated with the fast flows, leaving the source for the electron holes unexplained.
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| 18. |
- Breuillard, H., et al.
(författare)
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The Properties of Lion Roars and Electron Dynamics in Mirror Mode Waves Observed by the Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-9380 .- 2169-9402. ; 123:1, s. 93-103
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mirror mode waves are ubiquitous in the Earth's magnetosheath, in particular behind the quasi-perpendicular shock. Embedded in these nonlinear structures, intense lion roars are often observed. Lion roars are characterized by whistler wave packets at a frequency similar to 100Hz, which are thought to be generated in the magnetic field minima. In this study, we make use of the high time resolution instruments on board the Magnetospheric MultiScale mission to investigate these waves and the associated electron dynamics in the quasi-perpendicular magnetosheath on 22 January 2016. We show that despite a core electron parallel anisotropy, lion roars can be generated locally in the range 0.05-0.2f(ce) by the perpendicular anisotropy of electrons in a particular energy range. We also show that intense lion roars can be observed up to higher frequencies due to the sharp nonlinear peaks of the signal, which appear as sharp spikes in the dynamic spectra. As a result, a high sampling rate is needed to estimate correctly their amplitude, and the latter might have been underestimated in previous studies using lower time resolution instruments. We also present for the first-time 3-D high time resolution electron velocity distribution functions in mirror modes. We demonstrate that the dynamics of electrons trapped in the mirror mode structures are consistent with the Kivelson and Southwood (1996) model. However, these electrons can also interact with the embedded lion roars: first signatures of electron quasi-linear pitch angle diffusion and possible signatures of nonlinear interaction with high-amplitude wave packets are presented. These processes can lead to electron untrapping from mirror modes.
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| 19. |
- Ergun, R. E., et al.
(författare)
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Magnetospheric Multiscale Satellites Observations of Parallel Electric Fields Associated with Magnetic Reconnection
- 2016
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - : American Physical Society. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 116:23
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report observations from the Magnetospheric Multiscale satellites of parallel electric fields (E-vertical bar vertical bar) associated with magnetic reconnection in the subsolar region of the Earth's magnetopause. E-vertical bar vertical bar events near the electron diffusion region have amplitudes on the order of 100 mV/m, which are significantly larger than those predicted for an antiparallel reconnection electric field. This Letter addresses specific types of E-vertical bar vertical bar events, which appear as large-amplitude, near unipolar spikes that are associated with tangled, reconnected magnetic fields. These E-vertical bar vertical bar events are primarily in or near a current layer near the separatrix and are interpreted to be double layers that may be responsible for secondary reconnection in tangled magnetic fields or flux ropes. These results are telling of the three-dimensional nature of magnetopause reconnection and indicate that magnetopause reconnection may be often patchy and/or drive turbulence along the separatrix that results in flux ropes and/or tangled magnetic fields.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Nakamura, R., et al.
(författare)
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Transient, small-scale field-aligned currents in the plasma sheet boundary layer during storm time substorms
- 2016
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 43:10, s. 4841-4849
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on field-aligned current observations by the four Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft near the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) during two major substorms on 23 June 2015. Small-scale field-aligned currents were found embedded in fluctuating PSBL flux tubes near the separatrix region. We resolve, for the first time, short-lived earthward (downward) intense field-aligned current sheets with thicknesses of a few tens of kilometers, which are well below the ion scale, on flux tubes moving equatorward/earthward during outward plasma sheet expansion. They coincide with upward field-aligned electron beams with energies of a few hundred eV. These electrons are most likely due to acceleration associated with a reconnection jet or high-energy ion beam-produced disturbances. The observations highlight coupling of multiscale processes in PSBL as a consequence of magnetotail reconnection.
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| 22. |
- Witasse, O., et al.
(författare)
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Interplanetary coronal mass ejection observed at STEREO-A, Mars, comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, Saturn, and New Horizons en route to Pluto : Comparison of its Forbush decreases at 1.4, 3.1, and 9.9 AU
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics. - 2169-9380 .- 2169-9402. ; 122:8, s. 7865-7890
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We discuss observations of the journey throughout the Solar System of a large interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) that was ejected at the Sun on 14 October 2014. The ICME hit Mars on 17 October, as observed by the Mars Express, Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN Mission (MAVEN), Mars Odyssey, and Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) missions, 44h before the encounter of the planet with the Siding-Spring comet, for which the space weather context is provided. It reached comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, which was perfectly aligned with the Sun and Mars at 3.1 AU, as observed by Rosetta on 22 October. The ICME was also detected by STEREO-A on 16 October at 1 AU, and by Cassini in the solar wind around Saturn on the 12 November at 9.9AU. Fortuitously, the New Horizons spacecraft was also aligned with the direction of the ICME at 31.6 AU. We investigate whether this ICME has a nonambiguous signature at New Horizons. A potential detection of this ICME by Voyager 2 at 110-111 AU is also discussed. The multispacecraft observations allow the derivation of certain properties of the ICME, such as its large angular extension of at least 116 degrees, its speed as a function of distance, and its magnetic field structure at four locations from 1 to 10 AU. Observations of the speed data allow two different solar wind propagation models to be validated. Finally, we compare the Forbush decreases (transient decreases followed by gradual recoveries in the galactic cosmic ray intensity) due to the passage of this ICME at Mars, comet 67P, and Saturn.
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| 23. |
- Ergun, R. E., et al.
(författare)
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Magnetic Reconnection, Turbulence, and Particle Acceleration : Observations in the Earth's Magnetotail
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : Blackwell Publishing Ltd. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 45:8, s. 3338-3347
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report observations of turbulent dissipation and particle acceleration from large-amplitude electric fields (E) associated with strong magnetic field (B) fluctuations in the Earth's plasma sheet. The turbulence occurs in a region of depleted density with anti-earthward flows followed by earthward flows suggesting ongoing magnetic reconnection. In the turbulent region, ions and electrons have a significant increase in energy, occasionally >100 keV, and strong variation. There are numerous occurrences of |E| >100 mV/m including occurrences of large potentials (>1 kV) parallel to B and occurrences with extraordinarily large J · E (J is current density). In this event, we find that the perpendicular contribution of J · E with frequencies near or below the ion cyclotron frequency (fci) provide the majority net positive J · E. Large-amplitude parallel E events with frequencies above fci to several times the lower hybrid frequency provide significant dissipation and can result in energetic electron acceleration.
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| 24. |
- Eriksson, S., et al.
(författare)
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Magnetospheric Multiscale Observations of the Electron Diffusion Region of Large Guide Field Magnetic Reconnection
- 2016
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - : American Physical Society. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 117:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report observations from the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) satellites of a large guide field magnetic reconnection event. The observations suggest that two of the four MMS spacecraft sampled the electron diffusion region, whereas the other two spacecraft detected the exhaust jet from the event. The guide magnetic field amplitude is approximately 4 times that of the reconnecting field. The event is accompanied by a significant parallel electric field (E-parallel to)that is larger than predicted by simulations. The high-speed (similar to 300 km/s) crossing of the electron diffusion region limited the data set to one complete electron distribution inside of the electron diffusion region, which shows significant parallel heating. The data suggest that E-parallel to is balanced by a combination of electron inertia and a parallel gradient of the gyrotropic electron pressure.
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| 25. |
- Farrugia, C. J., et al.
(författare)
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MMS Observations of Reconnection at Dayside Magnetopause Crossings During Transitions of the Solar Wind to Sub-Alfvénic Flow
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics. - : Blackwell Publishing Ltd. - 2169-9380 .- 2169-9402. ; 122:10, s. 9934-9951
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present MMS observations during two dayside magnetopause crossings under hitherto unexamined conditions: (i) when the bow shock is weakening and the solar wind transitioning to sub-Alfvénic flow and (ii) when it is reforming. Interplanetary conditions consist of a magnetic cloud with (i) a strong B (∼20 nT) pointing south and (ii) a density profile with episodic decreases to values of ∼0.3 cm−3 followed by moderate recovery. During the crossings the magnetosheath magnetic field is stronger than the magnetosphere field by a factor of ∼2.2. As a result, during the outbound crossing through the ion diffusion region, MMS observed an inversion of the relative positions of the X and stagnation (S) lines from that typically the case: the S line was closer to the magnetosheath side. The S line appears in the form of a slow expansion fan near which most of the energy dissipation is taking place. While in the magnetosphere between the crossings, MMS observed strong field and flow perturbations, which we argue to be due to kinetic Alfvén waves. During the reconnection interval, whistler mode waves generated by an electron temperature anisotropy (Te⊥>Te∥) were observed. Another aim of the paper is to distinguish bow shock-induced field and flow perturbations from reconnection-related signatures. The high-resolution MMS data together with 2-D hybrid simulations of bow shock dynamics helped us to distinguish between the two sources. We show examples of bow shock-related effects (such as heating) and reconnection effects such as accelerated flows satisfying the Walén relation.
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