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- Kang, S, et al.
(författare)
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Are better existing WASH practices in urban slums associated with a lower long-term risk of severe cholera? A prospective cohort study with 4 years of follow-up in Mirpur, Bangladesh
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 12:9, s. e060858-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To investigate the association between existing household water quality, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) practices and severe cholera risk in a dense urban slum where cholera is highly endemic.Design, setting and participantsWe assembled a large prospective cohort within a cluster randomised trial evaluating the effectiveness of oral cholera vaccine. Our dynamic cohort population (n=193 576) comprised individuals living in the ‘non-intervention’ clusters of the trial, and were followed over 4 years. This study was conducted in a dense urban slum community of Dhaka, Bangladesh and cholera surveillance was undertaken in 12 hospitals serving the study area.Primary outcome measureFirst severe cholera episode detected during follow-up period.MethodsWe applied a machine learning algorithm on a training subpopulation (n=96 943) to develop a binary (‘better’, ‘not better’) composite WASH variable predictive of severe cholera. The WASH rule was evaluated for performance in a separate validation subpopulation (n=96 633). Afterwards, we used Cox regression models to evaluate the association between ‘better’ WASH households and severe cholera risk over 4 years in the entire study population.ResultsThe ‘better’ WASH rule found that water quality and access were the most significant factors associated with severe cholera risk. Members of ‘better’ WASH households, constituting one-third of the population, had a 47% reduced risk of severe cholera (95% CI: 29 to 69; p<0.001), after adjusting for covariates. The protective association between living in a ‘better’ WASH household and severe cholera persisted in all age groups.ConclusionsSalutary existing household WASH practices were associated with a significantly reduced long-term risk of severe cholera in an urban slum of Dhaka. These findings suggest that WASH adaptations already practised in the community may be important for developing and implementing effective and sustainable cholera control programmes in similar settings.Trial registration numberThis article is a re-analysis of data from a cluster randomized trial; can be found on ClinicalTrials.govNCT01339845
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- Mutreja, Ankur, et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for several waves of global transmission in the seventh cholera pandemic.
- 2012
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 477:7365, s. 462-465
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Vibrio cholerae is a globally important pathogen that is endemic in many areas of the world and causes 3-5 million reported cases of cholera every year. Historically, there have been seven acknowledged cholera pandemics; recent outbreaks in Zimbabwe and Haiti are included in the seventh and ongoing pandemic. Only isolates in serogroup O1 (consisting of two biotypes known as 'classical' and 'El Tor') and the derivative O139 can cause epidemic cholera. It is believed that the first six cholera pandemics were caused by the classical biotype, but El Tor has subsequently spread globally and replaced the classical biotype in the current pandemic. Detailed molecular epidemiological mapping of cholera has been compromised by a reliance on sub-genomic regions such as mobile elements to infer relationships, making El Tor isolates associated with the seventh pandemic seem superficially diverse. To understand the underlying phylogeny of the lineage responsible for the current pandemic, we identified high-resolution markers (single nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs) in 154 whole-genome sequences of globally and temporally representative V. cholerae isolates. Using this phylogeny, we show here that the seventh pandemic has spread from the Bay of Bengal in at least three independent but overlapping waves with a common ancestor in the 1950s, and identify several transcontinental transmission events. Additionally, we show how the acquisition of the SXT family of antibiotic resistance elements has shaped pandemic spread, and show that this family was first acquired at least ten years before its discovery in V. cholerae.
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