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Sökning: WFRF:(Cowie Martin)

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1.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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  • Zuntini, Alexandre R., et al. (författare)
  • Phylogenomics and the rise of the angiosperms
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: NATURE. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 629, s. 843-850
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Angiosperms are the cornerstone of most terrestrial ecosystems and human livelihoods(1,2). A robust understanding of angiosperm evolution is required to explain their rise to ecological dominance. So far, the angiosperm tree of life has been determined primarily by means of analyses of the plastid genome(3,4). Many studies have drawn on this foundational work, such as classification and first insights into angiosperm diversification since their Mesozoic origins(5-7). However, the limited and biased sampling of both taxa and genomes undermines confidence in the tree and its implications. Here, we build the tree of life for almost 8,000 (about 60%) angiosperm genera using a standardized set of 353 nuclear genes(8). This 15-fold increase in genus-level sampling relative to comparable nuclear studies(9) provides a critical test of earlier results and brings notable change to key groups, especially in rosids, while substantiating many previously predicted relationships. Scaling this tree to time using 200 fossils, we discovered that early angiosperm evolution was characterized by high gene tree conflict and explosive diversification, giving rise to more than 80% of extant angiosperm orders. Steady diversification ensued through the remaining Mesozoic Era until rates resurged in the Cenozoic Era, concurrent with decreasing global temperatures and tightly linked with gene tree conflict. Taken together, our extensive sampling combined with advanced phylogenomic methods shows the deep history and full complexity in the evolution of a megadiverse clade.
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  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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  • Bergh, Niklas, 1979, et al. (författare)
  • Estimating the clinical and budgetary impact of using angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor as first line therapy in patients with HFrEF.
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: ESC Heart Failure. - 2055-5822. ; 11:2, s. 1153-1162
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Recent updates of international treatment guidelines for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) differ regarding the use of angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) as first-line treatment. The American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Heart Failure Society of America (AHA/ACC/HFSA) 2022 guidelines gives ARNI a Class IA recommendation for HFrEF patients while the European Society of Cardiology's guidelines are less clear when ARNI could be considered as first line treatment option in de novo patients. This study aimed to model the clinical and budgetary outcomes of implementing these guidelines, comparing conservative ARNI prescription patterns with less conservative in Sweden and in the United Kingdom.A health economic model was developed to compare different treatment patterns for HFrEF. Incident cohorts were included on an annual basis and followed over 10years. The model included treatment specific all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates, as well as drug acquisition, monitoring, and hospitalization costs. Increasing the use of ARNI could lead to about 7000-12300 life years gained and 2600-4600 hospitalizations prevented in Sweden. These health benefits come with an additional cost of 112-195 million euros. Similar results were estimated for the United Kingdom, albeit on a larger population.Increasing the proportion of patients receiving ARNI instead of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors as first-line treatment of HFrEF will lead to a considerable number of additional life years gained and prevented hospitalizations but with additional cost in terms of health care expenditure in Sweden and in the United Kingdom.
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  • Brandao, Miguel, et al. (författare)
  • Consequential Life Cycle Assessment : What, How, and Why?
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Encyclopedia of Sustainable Technologies. - : Elsevier. - 9780128047927 ; , s. 277-284
  • Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • This article provides guidelines for conducting consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) studies. It presents the main features of two alternative approaches used in LCA—attributional and consequential—and describes how consequential LCA can be performed consistently and appropriately, with an example provided to guide practitioners. It is argued that, despite its limitations, consequential LCA is a robust approach for estimating important indirect effects of products.
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  • Elliott, Perry, et al. (författare)
  • Development, validation and implementation of biomarker testing in cardiovascular medicine state-of-the-art : Proceedings of the European Society of Cardiology - Cardiovascular Round Table
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Cardiovascular Research. - : Oxford University Press. - 0008-6363 .- 1755-3245. ; 117:5, s. 1248-1256
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Many biomarkers that could be used to assess ejection fraction, heart failure, or myocardial infarction fail to translate into clinical practice because they lack essential performance characteristics or fail to meet regulatory standards for approval. Despite their potential, new technologies have added to the complexities of successful translation into clinical practice. Biomarker discovery and implementation requires a standardised approach that includes: identification of a clinical need; identification of a valid surrogate biomarker; stepwise assay refinement, demonstration of superiority over current standard-of-care; development and understanding of a clinical pathway; and demonstration of real-world performance. Successful biomarkers should improve efficacy or safety of treatment, while being practical at a realistic cost. Everyone involved in cardiovascular healthcare, including researchers, clinicians, and industry partners, are important stakeholders in facilitating the development and implementation of biomarkers. This paper provides suggestions for a development pathway for new biomarkers, discusses regulatory issues and challenges, and suggestions for accelerating the pathway to improve patient outcomes. Real life examples of successful biomarkers-high sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn), T2* cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging, and echocardiography-are used to illustrate the value of a standardised development pathway in the translation of concepts into routine clinical practice.
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  • Mullens, Wilfried, et al. (författare)
  • Integration of implantable device therapy in patients with heart failure. A clinical consensus statement from the Heart Failure Association (HFA) and European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC)
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : WILEY. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Implantable devices form an integral part of the management of patients with heart failure (HF) and provide adjunctive therapies in addition to cornerstone drug treatment. Although the number of these devices is growing, only few are supported by robust evidence. Current devices aim to improve haemodynamics, improve reverse remodelling, or provide electrical therapy. A number of these devices have guideline recommendations and some have been shown to improve outcomes such as cardiac resynchronization therapy, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators and long-term mechanical support. For others, more evidence is still needed before large-scale implementation can be strongly advised. Of note, devices and drugs can work synergistically in HF as improved disease control with devices can allow for further optimization of drug therapy. Therefore, some devices might already be considered early in the disease trajectory of HF patients, while others might only be reserved for advanced HF. As such, device therapy should be integrated into HF care programmes. Unfortunately, implementation of devices, including those with the greatest evidence, in clinical care pathways is still suboptimal. This clinical consensus document of the Heart Failure Association (HFA) and European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) describes the physiological rationale behind device-provided therapy and also device-guided management, offers an overview of current implantable device options recommended by the guidelines and proposes a new integrated model of device therapy as a part of HF care.
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  • Nikolovska Vukadinović, Aleksandra, et al. (författare)
  • Heart rate and its reduction in chronic heart failure and beyond
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : Wiley. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 10, s. 1230-41
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • © 2017 The Authors European Journal of Heart Failure. Heart rate (HR) is associated with cardiovascular outcomes in all the stages of the cardiovascular continuum as well as in patients with pulmonary, cerebrovascular, and renal disease, sepsis, cancer, and erectile dysfunction. In patients with cardiovascular disease, but also in the general population, increased HR represents an important indicator of mortality with each acceleration of HR over 70 b.p.m. increasing the risk. In patients in sinus rhythm with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), a HR > 70 b.p.m. increased the risk of hospitalization, and > 75 b.p.m. the risk of cardiovascular death as shown in the Systolic Heart Failure Treatment with the I f Inhibitor Ivabradine Trial (SHIFT). Reducing HR with ivabradine by 11 b.p.m. (placebo-controlled) reduced the primary composite endpoint (cardiovascular death and hospitalization for worsening heart failure). Ivabradine was well tolerated showing benefit irrespective of age or diabetes status, and also in the presence of low systolic blood pressure and severe heart failure (SHIFT trial). Therefore, HR qualifies as a modifiable risk factor in heart failure. In patients with stable coronary disease, HR is a risk marker but HR reduction with ivabradine does not improve outcomes. The role of selective HR lowering remains unclear in patients with pulmonary, renal, cerebrovascular, and other diseases, as the potential benefit of interventions on HR has not been explored in these conditions. Future studies should scrutinize if HR reduction improves outcomes, defining HR as a potential risk factor and therapeutic target in other conditions beyond heart failure.
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  • Savarese, Gianluigi, et al. (författare)
  • Heart failure drug titration, discontinuation, mortality and heart failure hospitalization risk : a multinational observational study (US, UK and Sweden)
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 23:9, s. 1499-1511
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims: Use and dosing of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) in patients with heart failure (HF) have been shown to be suboptimal. Among new users of GDMT in HF, we followed the real-life patterns of dose titration and discontinuation of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA) and angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI).Methods and results: New users were identified in health care databases in Sweden, UK and US between 2016–2019. Inclusion criterion was a recent HF hospitalization (HHF) triggering the initiation of GDMT. Patients were grouped by GDMT, i.e. ACEi, ARB, beta-blocker, MRA and ARNI, and stratified by initial dose. Follow-up was 12 months, until death or study end. Outcomes were dose titration within each drug class, discontinuation and first HHF or death. Dose/discontinuation follow-up was assessed daily based on the coverage length of a filled prescription and reported on day 365. New users of ACEi (n = 8426), ARB (n = 2303), beta-blockers (n = 10 476), MRA (n = 17 421), and ARNI (n = 29 546) were identified. Over 12 months, target dose achievement was 15%, 10%, 12%, 30%, and discontinuation was 55%, 33%, 24% and 27% for ACEi, ARB, beta-blockers and ARNI, respectively. MRA was rarely titrated and discontinuation rates were high (40%). Event rates for HHF or death ranged from 40.0–86.9 per 100 patient-years across the treatment groups.Conclusion: Despite high risk of clinical events following HHF, new initiation of GDMT was followed by consistent patterns of low up-titration and early GDMT discontinuation in three countries with different health care and economies. Our data highlight the urgent need for moving away from long sequential approach when initiating HF treatment and for improving just-in-time decision support for patients and health care providers.
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  • Shuldham, Caroline, et al. (författare)
  • Evaluation of the European Heart Failure Self-care Behaviour Scale in a United Kingdom population.
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Journal of Advanced Nursing. - : Wiley. - 0309-2402 .- 1365-2648. ; 60:1, s. 87-95
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • AIM: This paper is a report of a study to test the internal consistency, reliability and validity of the 12-item European Heart Failure Self-care Behaviour Scale in an English-speaking sample in the United Kingdom. BACKGROUND: The European Heart Failure Self-care Behaviour Scale quantifies the measures patients take to manage their heart failure. Produced in the Netherlands and Sweden, it has been translated into English. METHODS: A convenience sample of 183 patients (response rate 85%) with heart failure (New York Heart Association, Class I-IV) was recruited from an outpatient clinic between July 2004 and July 2005. Mainly men (n = 143), they had a mean age of 65.6 years (sd = 12.3). They completed the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire, the Self-Care of Heart Failure Index, and the European Heart Failure Self-care Behaviour Scale during their clinic visit. The latter questionnaire was repeated at home within 2 weeks. RESULTS: The scale was reliable but internal consistency was only moderate (Cronbach's alpha = 0.69) and lower than in other European populations. It appears to be repeatable in the short-term. Comparison with the Self-Care of Heart Failure Index raised questions about whether the two questionnaires measured the same concept. Variance in self-care was not explained by gender, age or severity of heart failure. CONCLUSION: As self-care is an important component in the life of patients with heart failure, further exploration of the methods for measuring patients' self-care behaviours is warranted to enable healthcare staff to assess patients effectively. This would also help in understanding the applicability of tools in a range of patients, cultures and settings.
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  • Soimakallio, Sampo, et al. (författare)
  • Attributional life cycle assessment : is a land-use baseline necessary?
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. - : Springer Nature. - 0948-3349 .- 1614-7502. ; 20:10, s. 1364-1375
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper aims to clarify the application of a land-use baseline in attributional life cycle assessment (ALCA) for product systems involving land use, through consideration of the fundamental purpose of ALCA. Currently, there is no clear view in the literature whether a baseline should be used when accounting for environmentally relevant physical flows related to land use. An extensive search of literature was carried out using the key terms 'attributional life cycle assessment' and 'attributional LCA' in the Google Scholar web search engine. Approximately 700 publications were reviewed and summarised according to their type and scope, relevance of land use, key statements and references given for ALCA, and arguments for and against using a baseline in ALCA. Based on the literature review and supplementary literature references, a critical discussion on the use of a baseline and determination of the most appropriate land-use baseline in ALCA is provided. A few studies clearly argued that only absolute (observable) flows without a baseline are to be inventoried in ALCA, while the majority of the studies did not make any clear statement for or against. On the other hand, a land-use baseline was explicitly applied or proposed in a minority of the studies only, despite the fact that we classified land use as highly relevant for the majority of the studies reviewed. Furthermore, the LCA guidelines reviewed give contradictory recommendations. The most cited studies for the definition of ALCA provide general rules for selecting processes based on observable flows but do not argue that observable flows necessarily describe the environmentally relevant physical flows. We conclude that a baseline is required to separate the studied parts of the technosphere from natural processes and to describe the impact of land use on ecosystem quality, such as carbon sequestration and biodiversity. The most coherent baseline for human-induced land-use in ALCA is natural regeneration. As the natural-regeneration baseline has typically been excluded, may vary bio-geographically and temporally, and is subject to uncertainties, case studies applying it should be performed so that implications can be studied and evaluated. This is particularly important for agricultural and forestry systems, such as food, feed, fibre, timber and biofuels.
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