| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Achberger, Christine, 1968, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2011
- 2012
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 93:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large-scale climate patterns influenced temperature and weather patterns around the globe in 2011. In particular, a moderate-to-strong La Nina at the beginning of the year dissipated during boreal spring but reemerged during fall. The phenomenon contributed to historical droughts in East Africa, the southern United States, and northern Mexico, as well the wettest two-year period (2010-11) on record for Australia, particularly remarkable as this follows a decade-long dry period. Precipitation patterns in South America were also influenced by La Nina. Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in January triggered the country's worst floods and landslides in Brazil's history. The 2011 combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the coolest since 2008, but was also among the 15 warmest years on record and above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea surface temperature cooled by 0.1 degrees C from 2010 to 2011, associated with cooling influences of La Nina. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for 2011 were higher than for all prior years, demonstrating the Earth's dominant role of the oceans in the Earth's energy budget. In the upper atmosphere, tropical stratospheric temperatures were anomalously warm, while polar temperatures were anomalously cold. This led to large springtime stratospheric ozone reductions in polar latitudes in both hemispheres. Ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March were the lowest for that period since satellite records began in 1979. An extensive, deep, and persistent ozone hole over the Antarctic in September indicates that the recovery to pre-1980 conditions is proceeding very slowly. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 2.10 ppm in 2011, and exceeded 390 ppm for the first time since instrumental records began. Other greenhouse gases also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 30% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Most ozone depleting substances continued to fall. The global net ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2010 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, was estimated to be 1.30 Pg C yr(-1), almost 12% below the 29-year long-term average. Relative to the long-term trend, global sea level dropped noticeably in mid-2010 and reached a local minimum in 2011. The drop has been linked to the La Nina conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2010-11. Global sea level increased sharply during the second half of 2011. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2011 was well-below average, with a total of 74 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010, the North Atlantic was the only basin that experienced above-normal activity. For the first year since the widespread introduction of the Dvorak intensity-estimation method in the 1980s, only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity level-all in the Northwest Pacific basin. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Below-normal summer snowfall, a decreasing trend in surface albedo, and above-average surface and upper air temperatures resulted in a continued pattern of extreme surface melting, and net snow and ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over the Eurasian Arctic in spring resulted in a new record-low June snow cover extent and spring snow cover duration in this region. In the Canadian Arctic, the mass loss from glaciers and ice caps was the greatest since GRACE measurements began in 2002, continuing a negative trend that began in 1987. New record high temperatures occurred at 20 m below the land surface at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, where measurements began in the late 1970s. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2011 was the second-lowest on record, while the extent of old ice (four and five years) reached a new record minimum that was just 19% of normal. On the opposite pole, austral winter and spring temperatures were more than 3 degrees C above normal over much of the Antarctic continent. However, winter temperatures were below normal in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, which continued the downward trend there during the last 15 years. In summer, an all-time record high temperature of -12.3 degrees C was set at the South Pole station on 25 December, exceeding the previous record by more than a full degree. Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies increased steadily through much of the year, from briefly setting a record low in April, to well above average in December. The latter trend reflects the dispersive effects of low pressure on sea ice and the generally cool conditions around the Antarctic perimeter.
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| 3. |
- Ederle, Joerg, et al.
(författare)
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Carotid artery stenting compared with endarterectomy in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis (International Carotid Stenting Study): an interim analysis of a randomised controlled trial
- 2010
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X. ; 375:9719, s. 985-997
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Stents are an alternative treatment to carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis, but previous trials have not established equivalent safety and efficacy. We compared the safety of carotid artery stenting with that of carotid endarterectomy. Methods The International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS) is a multicentre, international, randomised controlled trial with blinded adjudication of outcomes. Patients with recently symptomatic carotid artery stenosis were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. Randomisation was by telephone call or fax to a central computerised service and was stratified by centre with minimisation for sex, age, contralateral occlusion, and side of the randomised artery. Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment assignment. Patients were followed up by independent clinicians not directly involved in delivering the randomised treatment. The primary outcome measure of the trial is the 3-year rate of fatal or disabling stroke in any territory, which has not been analysed yet. The main outcome measure for the interim safety analysis was the 120-day rate of stroke, death, or procedural myocardial infarction. Analysis was by intention to treat (ITT). This study is registered, number ISRCTN25337470. Findings The trial enrolled 1713 patients (stenting group, n=855; endarterectomy group, n=858). Two patients in the stenting group and one in the endarterectomy group withdrew immediately after randomisation, and were not included in the ITT analysis. Between randomisation and 120 days, there were 34 (Kaplan-Meier estimate 4.0%) events of disabling stroke or death in the stenting group compared with 27 (3.2%) events in the endarterectomy group (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 0.77-2.11). The incidence of stroke, death, or procedural myocardial infarction was 8.5% in the stenting group compared with 5.2% in the endarterectomy group (72 vs 44 events; HR 1.69, 1.16-2.45, p=0.006), Risks of any stroke (65 vs 35 events; HR 1.92, 1.27-2.89) and all-cause death (19 vs seven events; HR 2.76, 1.16-6.56) were higher in the stenting group than in the endarterectomy group. Three procedural myocardial infarctions were recorded in the stenting group, all of which were fatal, compared with four, all non-fatal, in the endarterectomy group. There was one event of cranial nerve palsy in the stenting group compared with 45 in the endarterectomy group. There were also fewer haematomas of any severity in the stenting group than in the endarterectomy group (31 vs 50 events; p=0.0197). Interpretation Completion of long-term follow-up is needed to establish the efficacy of carotid artery stenting compared with endarterectomy. In the meantime, carotid endarterectomy should remain the treatment of choice for patients suitable for surgery.
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| 4. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 5. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 6. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 7. |
- van Ree, R, et al.
(författare)
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The CREATE project: development of certified reference materials for allergenic products and validation of methods for their quantification.
- 2008
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Ingår i: Allergy. - : Wiley. - 1398-9995 .- 0105-4538. ; 63:3, s. 310-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Allergen extracts have been used for diagnosis and treatment of allergy for around 100 years. During the second half of 20th century, the notion increasingly gained foothold that accurate standardization of such extracts is of great importance for improvement of their quality. As a consequence, manufacturers have implemented extensive protocols for standardization and quality control. These protocols have overall IgE-binding potencies as their focus. Unfortunately, each company is using their own in-house reference materials and their own unique units to express potencies. This does not facilitate comparison of different products. During the last decades, most major allergens of relevant allergen sources have been identified and it has been established that effective immunotherapy requires certain minimum quantities of these allergens to be present in the administered maintenance dose. Therefore, the idea developed to introduce major allergens measurements into standardization protocols. Such protocols based on mass units of major allergen, quantify the active ingredients of the treatment and will at the same time allow comparison of competitor products. In 2001, an EU funded project, the CREATE project, was started to support introduction of major allergen based standardization. The aim of the project was to evaluate the use of recombinant allergens as reference materials and of ELISA assays for major allergen measurements. This paper gives an overview of the achievements of the CREATE project.
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| 8. |
- Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P., et al.
(författare)
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State of the climate in 2014
- 2015
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 96
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most of the dozens of essential climate variables monitored each year in this report continued to follow their long-term trends in 2014, with several setting new records. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-the major greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m-2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago. Accompanying the record-high greenhouse gas concentrations was nominally the highest annual global surface temperature in at least 135 years of modern record keeping, according to four independent observational analyses. The warmth was distributed widely around the globe's land areas, Europe observed its warmest year on record by a large margin, with close to two dozen countries breaking their previous national temperature records; many countries in Asia had annual temperatures among their 10 warmest on record; Africa reported above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014; Australia saw its third warmest year on record, following record heat there in 2013; Mexico had its warmest year on record; and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to observe a below-average annual temperature. But it was the oceans that drove the record global surface temperature in 2014. Although 2014 was largely ENSO-neutral, the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean where SST anomalies signaled a transition from a negative to positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the winter of 2013/14, unusually warm water in the northeast Pacific was associated with elevated ocean heat content anomalies and elevated sea level in the region. Globally, upper ocean heat content was record high for the year, reflecting the continued increase of thermal energy in the oceans, which absorb over 90% of Earth's excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to both ocean warming and land ice melt contributions, global mean sea level in 2014 was also record high and 67 mm greater than the 1993 annual mean, when satellite altimetry measurements began. Sea surface salinity trends over the past decade indicate that salty regions grew saltier while fresh regions became fresher, suggestive of an increased hydrological cycle over the ocean expected with global warming. As in previous years, these patterns are reflected in 2014 subsurface salinity anomalies as well. With a now decade-long trans-basin instrument array along 26°N, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows a decrease in transport of-4.2 ± 2.5 Sv decade-1. Precipitation was quite variable across the globe. On balance, precipitation over the world's oceans was above average, while below average across land surfaces. Drought continued in southeastern Brazil and the western United States. Heavy rain during April-June led to devastating floods in Canada's Eastern Prairies. Above-normal summer monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern coast of West Africa, while drier conditions prevailed over the eastern Sahel. Generally, summer monsoon rainfall over eastern Africa was above normal, except in parts of western South Sudan and Ethiopia. The south Asian summer monsoon in India was below normal, with June record dry. Across the major tropical cyclone basins, 91 named storms were observed during 2014, above the 1981-2010 global average of 82. The Eastern/Central Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins experienced significantly above-normal activity in 2014; all other basins were either at or below normal. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific was the basin's most since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms, despite the absence of El Niño conditions during both years. In higher latitudes and at higher elevations, increased warming continued to be visible in the decline of glacier mass balance, increasing permafrost temperatures, and a deeper thawing layer in seasonally frozen soil. In the Arctic, the 2014 temperature over land areas was the fourth highest in the 115-year period of record and snow melt occurred 20-30 days earlier than the 1998-2010 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet experienced extensive melting in summer 2014. The extent of melting was above the 1981-2010 average for 90% of the melt season, contributing to the second lowest average summer albedo over Greenland since observations began in 2000 and a record-low albedo across the ice sheet for August. On the North Slope of Alaska, new record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the sixth lowest since satellite records began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years. Conversely, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent countered its declining trend and set several new records in 2014, including record high monthly mean sea ice extent each month from April to November. On 20 September, a record large daily Antarctic sea ice extent of 20.14 × 106 km2 occurred. The 2014 Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole was 20.9 million km2 when averaged from 7 September to 13 October, the sixth smallest on record and continuing a decrease, albeit statistically insignificant, in area since 1998.
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| 9. |
- Luyssaert, S., et al.
(författare)
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CO2 balance of boreal, temperate, and tropical forests derived from a global database
- 2007
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 13:12, s. 2509-2537
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Terrestrial ecosystems sequester 2.1 Pg of atmospheric carbon annually. A large amount of the terrestrial sink is realized by forests. However, considerable uncertainties remain regarding the fate of this carbon over both short and long timescales. Relevant data to address these uncertainties are being collected at many sites around the world, but syntheses of these data are still sparse. To facilitate future synthesis activities, we have assembled a comprehensive global database for forest ecosystems, which includes carbon budget variables (fluxes and stocks), ecosystem traits (e.g. leaf area index, age), as well as ancillary site information such as management regime, climate, and soil characteristics. This publicly available database can be used to quantify global, regional or biome-specific carbon budgets; to re-examine established relationships; to test emerging hypotheses about ecosystem functioning [e.g. a constant net ecosystem production (NEP) to gross primary production (GPP) ratio]; and as benchmarks for model evaluations. In this paper, we present the first analysis of this database. We discuss the climatic influences on GPP, net primary production (NPP) and NEP and present the CO2 balances for boreal, temperate, and tropical forest biomes based on micrometeorological, ecophysiological, and biometric flux and inventory estimates. Globally, GPP of forests benefited from higher temperatures and precipitation whereas NPP saturated above either a threshold of 1500 mm precipitation or a mean annual temperature of 10 degrees C. The global pattern in NEP was insensitive to climate and is hypothesized to be mainly determined by nonclimatic conditions such as successional stage, management, site history, and site disturbance. In all biomes, closing the CO2 balance required the introduction of substantial biome-specific closure terms. Nonclosure was taken as an indication that respiratory processes, advection, and non-CO2 carbon fluxes are not presently being adequately accounted for.
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| 10. |
- Abdalla, M., et al.
(författare)
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Simulation of CO2 and Attribution Analysis at Six European Peatland Sites Using the ECOSSE Model
- 2014
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-2932 .- 0049-6979. ; 225:11, s. 2182-2182
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, we simulated heterotrophic CO2 (Rh) fluxes at six European peatland sites using the ECOSSE model and compared them to estimates of Rh made from eddy covariance (EC) measurements. The sites are spread over four countries with different climates, vegetation and management. Annual Rh from the different sites ranged from 110 to 540 g C m(-2). The maximum annual Rh occurred when the water table (WT) level was between -10 and -25 cm and the air temperature was above 6.2 degrees C. The model successfully simulated seasonal trends for the majority of the sites. Regression relationships (r(2)) between the EC-derived and simulated Rh ranged from 0.28 to 0.76, and the root mean square error and relative error were small, revealing an acceptable fit. The overall relative deviation value between annual EC-derived and simulated Rh was small (-1 %) and model efficiency ranges across sites from -0.25 to +0.41. Sensitivity analysis highlighted that increasing temperature, decreasing precipitation and lowering WT depth could significantly increase Rh from soils. Thus, management which lowers the WT could significantly increase anthropogenic CO2, so from a carbon emissions perspective, it should be avoided. The results presented here demonstrate a robust basis for further application of the ECOSSE model to assess the impacts of future land management interventions on peatland carbon emissions and to help guide best practice land management decisions.
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| 11. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the climate in 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 95
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved. In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earth’s surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series.
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| 12. |
- Peters, W., et al.
(författare)
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Seven years of recent European net terrestrial carbon dioxide exchange constrained by atmospheric observations
- 2010
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 16:4, s. 1317-1337
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an estimate of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 in Europe for the years 2001-2007. It is derived with a data assimilation that uses a large set of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction observations (similar to 70 000) to guide relatively simple descriptions of terrestrial and oceanic net exchange, while fossil fuel and fire emissions are prescribed. Weekly terrestrial sources and sinks are optimized (i.e., a flux inversion) for a set of 18 large ecosystems across Europe in which prescribed climate, weather, and surface characteristics introduce finer scale gradients. We find that the terrestrial biosphere in Europe absorbed a net average of -165 Tg C yr-1 over the period considered. This uptake is predominantly in non-EU countries, and is found in the northern coniferous (-94 Tg C yr-1) and mixed forests (-30 Tg C yr-1) as well as the forest/field complexes of eastern Europe (-85 Tg C yr-1). An optimistic uncertainty estimate derived using three biosphere models suggests the uptake to be in a range of -122 to -258 Tg C yr-1, while a more conservative estimate derived from the a-posteriori covariance estimates is -165 +/- 437 Tg C yr-1. Note, however, that uncertainties are hard to estimate given the nature of the system and are likely to be significantly larger than this. Interannual variability in NEE includes a reduction in uptake due to the 2003 drought followed by 3 years of more than average uptake. The largest anomaly of NEE occurred in 2005 concurrent with increased seasonal cycles of observed CO2. We speculate these changes to result from the strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in 2005 that lead to favorable summer growth conditions, and altered horizontal and vertical mixing in the atmosphere. All our results are available through http://www.carbontracker.eu.
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| 13. |
- Janssens-Maenhout, G., et al.
(författare)
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Toward an operational anthropogenic CO2 emissions monitoring and verification support capacity
- 2020
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 101:8, s. 1439-1451
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Under the Paris Agreement (PA), progress of emission reduction efforts is tracked on the basis of regular updates to national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, referred to as bottom-up estimates. However, only top-down atmospheric measurements can provide observation-based evidence of emission trends. Today, there is no internationally agreed, operational capacity to monitor anthropogenic GHG emission trends using atmospheric measurements to complement national bottom-up inventories. The European Commission (EC), the European Space Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and international experts are joining forces to develop such an operational capacity for monitoring anthropogenic CO2 emissions as a new CO2 service under the EC's Copernicus program. Design studies have been used to translate identified needs into defined requirements and functionalities of this anthropogenic CO2 emissions Monitoring and Verification Support (CO2MVS) capacity. It adopts a holistic view and includes components such as atmospheric spaceborne and in situ measurements, bottom-up CO2 emission maps, improved modeling of the carbon cycle, an operational data-assimilation system integrating top-down and bottom-up information, and a policy-relevant decision support tool. The CO2MVS capacity with operational capabilities by 2026 is expected to visualize regular updates of global CO2 emissions, likely at 0.05° x 0.05°. This will complement the PA's enhanced transparency framework, providing actionable information on anthropogenic CO2 emissions that are the main driver of climate change. This information will be available to all stakeholders, including governments and citizens, allowing them to reflect on trends and effectiveness of reduction measures. The new EC gave the green light to pass the CO2MVS from exploratory to implementing phase.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Fleischer, K., et al.
(författare)
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Low historical nitrogen deposition effect on carbon sequestration in the boreal zone
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953. ; 120:12, s. 2542-2561
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nitrogen (N) cycle dynamics and N deposition play an important role in determining the terrestrial biosphere's carbon (C) balance. We assess global and biome-specific N deposition effects on C sequestration rates with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Modeled CN interactions are evaluated by comparing predictions of the C and CN version of the model with direct observations of C fluxes from 68 forest FLUXNET sites. N limitation on C uptake reduced overestimation of gross primary productivity for boreal evergreen needleleaf forests from 56% to 18%, presenting the greatest improvement among forest types. Relative N deposition effects on C sequestration (dC/dN) in boreal, temperate, and tropical sites ranged from 17 to 26kgCkgN(-1) when modeled at site scale and were reduced to 12-22kgCkgN(-1) at global scale. We find that 19% of the recent (1990-2007) and 24% of the historical global C sink (1900-2006) was driven by N deposition effects. While boreal forests exhibit highest dC/dN, their N deposition-induced C sink was relatively low and is suspected to stay low in the future as no major changes in N deposition rates are expected in the boreal zone. N deposition induced a greater C sink in temperate and tropical forests, while predicted C fluxes and N-induced C sink response in tropical forests were associated with greatest uncertainties. Future work should be directed at improving the ability of LPJ-GUESS and other process-based ecosystem models to reproduce C cycle dynamics in the tropics, facilitated by more benchmarking data sets. Furthermore, efforts should aim to improve understanding and model representations of N availability (e.g., N fixation and organic N uptake), N limitation, P cycle dynamics, and effects of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes.
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| 17. |
- Groenendijk, M., et al.
(författare)
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Seasonal variation of photosynthetic model parameters and leaf area index from global Fluxnet eddy covariance data
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 2156-2202. ; 116, s. 04027-04027
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global vegetation models require the photosynthetic parameters, maximum carboxylation capacity (V(cm)), and quantum yield (alpha) to parameterize their plant functional types (PFTs). The purpose of this work is to determine how much the scaling of the parameters from leaf to ecosystem level through a seasonally varying leaf area index (LAI) explains the parameter variation within and between PFTs. Using Fluxnet data, we simulate a seasonally variable LAI(F) for a large range of sites, comparable to the LAI(M) derived from MODIS. There are discrepancies when LAI(F) reach zero levels and LAI(M) still provides a small positive value. We find that temperature is the most common constraint for LAI(F) in 55% of the simulations, while global radiation and vapor pressure deficit are the key constraints for 18% and 27% of the simulations, respectively, while large differences in this forcing still exist when looking at specific PFTs. Despite these differences, the annual photosynthesis simulations are comparable when using LAI(F) or LAIM (r(2) = 0.89). We investigated further the seasonal variation of ecosystem-scale parameters derived with LAI(F). V(cm) has the largest seasonal variation. This holds for all vegetation types and climates. The parameter alpha is less variable. By including ecosystem-scale parameter seasonality we can explain a considerable part of the ecosystem-scale parameter variation between PFTs. The remaining unexplained leaf-scale PFT variation still needs further work, including elucidating the precise role of leaf and soil level nitrogen.
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| 18. |
- Parmentier, Frans-Jan, et al.
(författare)
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The role of endophytic methane-oxidizing bacteria in submerged Sphagnum in determining methane emissions of Northeastern Siberian tundra
- 2011
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 8:5, s. 1267-1278
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The role of the microbial processes governing methane emissions from tundra ecosystems is receiving increasing attention. Recently, cooperation between methanotrophic bacteria and submerged Sphagnum was shown to reduce methane emissions but also to supply CO2 for photosynthesis for the plant. Although this process was shown to be important in the laboratory, the differences that exist in methane emissions from inundated vegetation types with or without Sphagnum in the field have not been linked to these bacteria before. In this study, chamber flux measurements, an incubation study and a process model were used to investigate the drivers and controls on the relative difference in methane emissions between a submerged Sphagnum/sedge vegetation type and an inundated sedge vegetation type without Sphagnum. It was found that methane emissions in the Sphagnumdominated vegetation type were 50% lower than in the vegetation type without Sphagnum. A model sensitivity analysis showed that these differences could not sufficiently be explained by differences in methane production and plant transport. The model, combined with an incubation study, indicated that methane oxidation by endophytic bacteria, living in cooperation with submerged Sphagnum, plays a significant role in methane cycling at this site. This result is important for spatial upscaling as oxidation by these bacteria is likely involved in 15% of the net methane emissions at this tundra site. Our findings support the notion that methane-oxidizing bacteria are an important factor in understanding the processes behind methane emissions in tundra.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Schulze, E D, et al.
(författare)
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The European carbon balance. Part 4: integration of carbon and other trace-gas fluxes
- 2010
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Ingår i: GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY. - : Blackwell Publishing Ltd. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 16:5, s. 1451-1469
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Overviewing the European carbon (C), greenhouse gas (GHG), and non-GHG fluxes, gross primary productivity (GPP) is about 9.3 Pg yr-1, and fossil fuel imports are 1.6 Pg yr-1. GPP is about 1.25% of solar radiation, containing about 360 x 1018 J energy - five times the energy content of annual fossil fuel use. Net primary production (NPP) is 50%, terrestrial net biome productivity, NBP, 3%, and the net GHG balance, NGB, 0.3% of GPP. Human harvest uses 20% of NPP or 10% of GPP, or alternatively 1 parts per thousand of solar radiation after accounting for the inherent cost of agriculture and forestry, for production of pesticides and fertilizer, the return of organic fertilizer, and for the C equivalent cost of GHG emissions. C equivalents are defined on a global warming potential with a 100-year time horizon. The equivalent of about 2.4% of the mineral fertilizer input is emitted as N2O. Agricultural emissions to the atmosphere are about 40% of total methane, 60% of total NO-N, 70% of total N2O-N, and 95% of total NH3-N emissions of Europe. European soils are a net C sink (114 Tg yr-1), but considering the emissions of GHGs, soils are a source of about 26 Tg CO2 C-equivalent yr-1. Forest, grassland and sediment C sinks are offset by GHG emissions from croplands, peatlands and inland waters. Non-GHGs (NH3, NOx) interact significantly with the GHG and the C cycle through ammonium nitrate aerosols and dry deposition. Wet deposition of nitrogen (N) supports about 50% of forest timber growth. Land use change is regionally important. The absolute flux values total about 50 Tg C yr-1. Nevertheless, for the European trace-gas balance, land-use intensity is more important than land-use change. This study shows that emissions of GHGs and non-GHGs significantly distort the C cycle and eliminate apparent C sinks.
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| 21. |
- Claeys, Shana, et al.
(författare)
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ALK positively regulates MYCN activity through repression of HBP1 expression
- 2019
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Ingår i: Oncogene. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0950-9232 .- 1476-5594. ; 38:15, s. 2690-2705
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ALK mutations occur in 10% of primary neuroblastomas and represent a major target for precision treatment. In combination with MYCN amplification, ALK mutations infer an ultra-high-risk phenotype resulting in very poor patient prognosis. To open up opportunities for future precision drugging, a deeper understanding of the molecular consequences of constitutive ALK signaling and its relationship to MYCN activity in this aggressive pediatric tumor entity will be essential. We show that mutant ALK downregulates the ‘HMG-box transcription factor 1’ (HBP1) through the PI3K-AKT–FOXO3a signaling axis. HBP1 inhibits both the transcriptional activating and repressing activity of MYCN, the latter being mediated through PRC2 activity. HBP1 itself is under negative control of MYCN through miR-17~92. Combined targeting of HBP1 by PI3K antagonists and MYCN signaling by BET- or HDAC-inhibitors blocks MYCN activity and significantly reduces tumor growth, suggesting a novel targeted therapy option for high-risk neuroblastoma.
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| 22. |
- Groenendijk, M., et al.
(författare)
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Assessing parameter variability in a photosynthesis model within and between plant functional types using global Fluxnet eddy covariance data
- 2011
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Ingår i: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2240 .- 0168-1923. ; 151:1, s. 22-38
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The vegetation component in climate models has advanced since the late 1960s from a uniform prescription of surface parameters to plant functional types (PFTs) PFTs are used in global land-surface models to provide parameter values for every model grid cell With a simple photosynthesis model we derive parameters for all site years within the Fluxnet eddy covariance data set We compare the model parameters within and between PFTs and statistically group the sites Fluxnet data is used to validate the photosynthesis model parameter variation within a PFT classification Our major result is that model parameters appear more variable than assumed in PFTs Simulated fluxes are of higher quality when model parameters of individual sites or site years are used A simplification with less variation in model parameters results in poorer simulations This indicates that a PFT classification Introduces uncertainty in the variation of the photosynthesis and transpiration fluxes Statistically derived groups of sites with comparable model parameters do not share common vegetation types or climates A simple PFT classification does not reflect the real photosynthesis and transpiration variation Although site year parameters give the best predictions the parameters are generally too specific to be used in a global study The site year parameters can be further used to explore the possibilities of alternative classification schemes (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved
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| 23. |
- Pinty, B, et al.
(författare)
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An Operational Anthropogenic CO₂ Emissions Monitoring & Verification Support Capacity : Needs and High Level Requirements for in situ Measurements
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This is the third report form the CO2 Monitoring Task Force on the multiple input streams of in-situ observations that are requirement for the Copernicus CO2 Monitoring and Verification Support capacity to: (i) calibrated and validate the space component, (ii) assimilate data in the models and integrate information in the core of the system, and (iii) evaluate the output generated by the system for its end users. The availability of sustained in situ networks is currently a significant factor of risk that needs to be mitigated to establish a European CO 2 support capacity which is fit-for-purpose. The current status of existing networks may be the source of large uncertainties in anthropogenicCO2 emission estimates as well as limited capability in meeting the requirements for country, large city and point source scale assessments. This conclusion results from a risk analysis formulated for four scenarios: 1) maintaining the status quo, 2) assuring sustained funding for the status quo, 3) enhancing network capabilities at European scale with sustained funding and 4) with a significantly improved in situ infrastructure in Europe and beyond. This report substantiates the multifaceted needs and requirements of the European CO2 support capacity with respect to in situ observations. The analysis concerns all core elements of the envisaged integrated system with a particular attention on the impact of such observations in achieving the proposed objectives. The specific needs for the validation of products delivered by the space component that is, the Copernicus Sentinels CO2 monitoring constellation, are addressed as another prerequisite for the success of the CO2 support capacity. This European asset will represent a significant contribution to the virtual constellation proposed by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and, accordingly, complementary requirements are elaborated in that international frame.The report highlights that although high measurement standards are present within existing networks such as ICOS, in the context of the needs for targeted in situ data for the realization of the operational system, these data are not fully fit-for-purpose. A fundamental prerequisite is to have a good geographical coverage over Europe for evaluating the data assimilation and modeling system over a large variety of environmental conditions such as, for instance, urban areas, agricultural regions, forested zones and industrial complexes. The in situ observations need to be extended under a coordinated European lead with sustained infrastructure and targeted additional and maintained long-term funding.It has been clearly understood from the onset that the international dimension of the European CO2 support capacity would be critical and that these aspects should be developed in parallel to, and in synergy with the definition and implementation of a European contributing system. It was also understood that this international dimension had both strategic, policy relevant and technical dimensions and the Commission and the relevant European institutional partners have started since several years to engage both bilaterally and multilaterally with the relevant stakeholders and counterparts to develop these relations. Specifically, CEOS will undertake, over the next few years,dedicated preparatory work in a coordinated international context, to provide cumulative added value to the specific programmatic activities of their member agencies. Concerted efforts have already begun in the context of the European Commission's Chairmanship of CEOS in 2018. It is recognized in the context of the European efforts, and increasingly by our international counterparts that a broad and holistic system approach is required to address the requirements which are represented by the climate policy, of which the satellite component, whilst important, cannot effectively be developed in isolation. This system indeed includes the satellite observing capability but in addition, the required modelling component and data integration elements, prior information, ancillary data and in situ observations delivered by essential networks.Acknowledging the need for an efficient coordination at international level for instance via the Global Atmosphere Watch programme of the World Meteorological Organisation is a key towards a successful implementation of appropriate actions to ensure the sustainability of essential networks, to enhance current network capabilities with new observations and to propose adequate governance schemes. Such actions to mitigate current network limitations are deemed critical to implementing the Copernicus CO 2 Monitoring & Verification Support capacity in its full strength.
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| 24. |
- Virkkala, Anna Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 27:17, s. 4040-4059
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.
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| 25. |
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