| 1. |
- Bustamante, Mercedes, et al.
(författare)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2023
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS. - 2059-4798. ; 7
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5 degrees C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems.Technical summary The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5 degrees C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts.
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| 2. |
- Ebi, Kristie L., et al.
(författare)
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Using Detection And Attribution To Quantify How Climate Change Is Affecting Health
- 2020
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Ingår i: Health Affairs. - : Project HOPE. - 0278-2715 .- 1544-5208. ; 39:12, s. 2168-2174
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The question of whether, how, and to what extent climate change is affecting health is central to many climate and health studies. We describe a set of formal methods, termed detection and attribution, used by climatologists to determine whether a climate trend or extreme event has changed and to estimate the extent to which climate change influenced that change. We discuss events where changing weather patterns were attributed to climate change and extend these analyses to include health impacts from heat waves in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and Japan, and we show how such impact attribution could be applied to melting ice roads in the Arctic. Documenting the causal chain from emissions of greenhouse gases to observed human health outcomes is important input into risk assessments that prioritize health system preparedness and response interventions and into financial investments and communication about potential risk to policy makers and to the public.
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| 3. |
- Guo, Yuming, et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios : A multicountry time series modelling study
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Watts, Nick, et al.
(författare)
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The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change : responding to converging crises
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 397:10269, s. 129-170
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the emerging health profile of the changing climate.The 2020 report presents 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. This report represents the findings and consensus of the 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies that make up The Lancet Countdown, and draws on the expertise of climate scientists, geographers, engineers, experts in energy, food, and transport, economists, social, and political scientists, data scientists, public health professionals, and doctors.
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| 6. |
- Bowen, Kathryn J., et al.
(författare)
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Governing the health risks of climate change : towards multi-sector responses
- 2015
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Ingår i: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435 .- 1877-3443. ; 12, s. 80-85
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change will exacerbate current and create new health risks. Because many upstream drivers of these risks arise from outside the sector, multi-sectoral approaches are required for effective adaptation. This paper focuses on showcasing successful stories of collaboration from four relevant arenas - One Health, Disaster Risk Management, the Commission on Social Determinants of Health, and Health in All Policies (HiAP). Common themes from these case studies include first, the importance of systems-based approaches incorporating partnership with all relevant sectors, and second structural supports, including leadership, sufficient resources and responsive governments, are necessary to provide the supporting conditions for collaboration and partnerships.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Ebi, Kristie L, et al.
(författare)
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Climate change and health modeling : horses for courses
- 2014
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : CoAction Publishing. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 7, s. 24154-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand the extent to which weather, climate variability, and climate change are affecting current and may affect future health burdens in the context of other risk factors and a range of possible development pathways, and the temporal and spatial patterns of any changes. Such understanding is needed to guide the design and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Because each model projection captures only a narrow range of possible futures, and because models serve different purposes, multiple models are needed for each health outcome ('horses for courses'). Multiple modeling results can be used to bracket the ranges of when, where, and with what intensity negative health consequences could arise. This commentary explores some climate change and health modeling issues, particularly modeling exposure-response relationships, developing early warning systems, projecting health risks over coming decades, and modeling to inform decision-making. Research needs are also suggested.
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| 9. |
- Ebi, Kristie L, et al.
(författare)
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Current medical research funding and frameworks are insufficient to address the health risks of global environmental change
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-069X. ; 15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Three major international agreements signed in 2015 are key milestones for transitioning to more sustainable and resilient societies: the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; and the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Together, these agreements underscore the critical importance of understanding and managing the health risks of global changes, to ensure continued population health improvements in the face of significant social and environmental change over this century.Body: Funding priorities of major health institutions and organizations in the U.S. and Europe do not match research investments with needs to inform implementation of these international agreements. In the U.S., the National Institutes of Health commit 0.025 % of their annual research budget to climate change and health. The European Union Seventh Framework Programme committed 0.08 % of the total budget to climate change and health; the amount committed under Horizon 2020 was 0.04 % of the budget. Two issues apparently contributing to this mismatch are viewing climate change primarily as an environmental problem, and therefore the responsibility of other research streams; and narrowly framing research into managing the health risks of climate variability and change from the perspective of medicine and traditional public health. This reductionist, top-down perspective focuses on proximate, individual level risk factors. While highly successful in reducing disease burdens, this framing is insufficient to protect health and well-being over a century that will be characterized by profound social and environmental changes.Conclusions: International commitments in 2015 underscored the significant challenges societies will face this century from climate change and other global changes. However, the low priority placed on understanding and managing the associated health risks by national and international research institutions and organizations leaves populations poorly prepared to cope with changing health burdens. Risk-centered, systems approaches can facilitate understanding of the complex interactions and dependencies across environmental, social, and human systems. This understanding is needed to formulate effective interventions targeting socio-environmental factors that are as important for determining health burdens as are individual risk factors.
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| 10. |
- Helldén, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Climate change adaptation across the life-course - from pregnancy to adolescence – it’s time to advance the field of climate change and child health
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Research. Health. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 2752-5309. ; 1:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Children are bearing and will continue to bear a high burden from climate change, through directand indirect pathways. Climate change adaptation interventions are essential to limit the currentand projected impacts of climate change on child health. However, the perspective of children andtheir health with regards to adaptation in research and policy is limited. Ensuring that adaptationinterventions are context specific, consider interrelated barriers to implementation and leverageexisting structures including multisectoral collaboration is vital. Further, a life-course perspectiveon child health and well-being could serve as a template for tailoring adaptation interventions tothe specific vulnerabilities and needs of specific development periods of the child. A meaningfulengagement of children and young persons in the design and implementation of adaptationinterventions is essential to increase effectiveness and uptake. With climate change effectingmillions of children worldwide, it is high time to put child health at the center of adaptation.
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| 11. |
- Holmner, Åsa, et al.
(författare)
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Carbon footprint of telemedicine solutions - unexplored opportunity for reducing carbon emissions in the health sector
- 2014
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public library science. - 1932-6203. ; 9:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The healthcare sector is a significant contributor to global carbon emissions, in part due to extensive travelling by patients and health workers.OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential of telemedicine services based on videoconferencing technology to reduce travelling and thus carbon emissions in the healthcare sector.METHODS: A life cycle inventory was performed to evaluate the carbon reduction potential of telemedicine activities beyond a reduction in travel related emissions. The study included two rehabilitation units at Umeå University Hospital in Sweden. Carbon emissions generated during telemedicine appointments were compared with care-as-usual scenarios. Upper and lower bound emissions scenarios were created based on different teleconferencing solutions and thresholds for when telemedicine becomes favorable were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to pinpoint the most important contributors to emissions for different set-ups and use cases.RESULTS: Replacing physical visits with telemedicine appointments resulted in a significant 40-70 times decrease in carbon emissions. Factors such as meeting duration, bandwidth and use rates influence emissions to various extents. According to the lower bound scenario, telemedicine becomes a greener choice at a distance of a few kilometers when the alternative is transport by car.CONCLUSIONS: Telemedicine is a potent carbon reduction strategy in the health sector. But to contribute significantly to climate change mitigation, a paradigm shift might be required where telemedicine is regarded as an essential component of ordinary health care activities and not only considered to be a service to the few who lack access to care due to geography, isolation or other constraints.
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| 12. |
- Lowe, Dianne, et al.
(författare)
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Factors Increasing Vulnerability to Health Effects before, during and after Floods
- 2013
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Ingår i: International journal of environmental research and public health. - : MDPI AG. - 1660-4601. ; 10:12, s. 7015-7067
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Identifying the risk factors for morbidity and mortality effects pre-, during and post-flood may aid the appropriate targeting of flood-related adverse health prevention strategies. We conducted a systematic PubMed search to identify studies examining risk factors for health effects of precipitation-related floods, among Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) member countries. Research identifying flood-related morbidity and mortality risk factors is limited and primarily examines demographic characteristics such as age and gender. During floods, females, elderly and children appear to be at greater risk of psychological and physical health effects, while males between 10 to 29 years may be at greater risk of mortality. Post-flood, those over 65 years and males are at increased risk of physical health effects, while females appear at greater risk of psychological health effects. Other risk factors include previous flood experiences, greater flood depth or flood trauma, existing illnesses, medication interruption, and low education or socio-economic status. Tailoring messages to high-risk groups may increase their effectiveness. Target populations differ for morbidity and mortality effects, and differ pre-, during, and post-flood. Additional research is required to identify the risk factors associated with pre- and post-flood mortality and post-flood morbidity, preferably using prospective cohort studies.
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| 13. |
- Lowe, Dianne, et al.
(författare)
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Heatwave early warning systems and adaptation advice to reduce human health consequences of heatwaves
- 2011
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 8:12, s. 4623-4648
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS). HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations.Objective: To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. Methods: We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences.Findings and Conclusions: Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans.
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| 14. |
- Martin, Maria A., et al.
(författare)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 2059-4798. ; 4, s. 1-20
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary: We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.Technical summary: A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.Social media summary: How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Nilsson, Maria, 1957-, et al.
(författare)
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Weather, climate, and climate change research to protect human health in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 14
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Weather, climate, and climate change are affecting human health, with scientific evidence increasing substantially over the past two decades, but with very limited research from low- and middle-income countries. The health effects of climate change occur mainly because of the consequences of rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and an increase in extreme weather events. These exposures interact with demographic, socio-economic, and environmental factors, as well as access to and the quality of health care, to affect the magnitude and pattern of risks. Health risks are unevenly distributed around the world, and within countries and across population groups. Existing health challenges and inequalities are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. This narrative review provides an overview of the health impacts of weather, climate, and climate change, particularly on vulnerable regions and populations in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, and discusses the importance of protecting human health in a changing climate; such measures are critical to reducing poverty and inequality at all scales. Three case summaries from the INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems highlight examples of research that quantified associations between weather and health outcomes. These and comparable surveillance systems can provide critical knowledge to increase resilience and decrease inequalities in an increasingly warming world.
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| 17. |
- Obura, David O., et al.
(författare)
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Achieving a nature- and people-positive future
- 2023
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 6:2, s. 105-117
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite decades of increasing investment in conservation, we have not succeeded in “bending the curve” of biodiversity decline. Efforts to meet new targets and goals for the next three decades risk repeating this outcome due to three factors: neglect of increasing drivers of decline; unrealistic expectations and time frames of biodiversity recovery; and insufficient attention to justice within and between generations and across countries. Our Earth system justice approach identifies six sets of actions that when tackled simultaneously address these failings: (1) reduce and reverse direct and indirect drivers causing decline; (2) halt and reverse biodiversity loss; (3) restore and regenerate biodiversity to a safe state; (4) raise minimum wellbeing for all; (5) eliminate over-consumption and excesses associated with accumulation of capital; and (6) uphold and respect the rights and responsibilities of all communities, present and future. Current conservation campaigns primarily address actions 2 and 3, with urgent upscaling of actions 1, 4, 5, and 6 needed to help deliver the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.
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| 18. |
- Orru, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe
- 2013
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Ingår i: European Respiratory Journal. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 0903-1936 .- 1399-3003. ; 41:2, s. 285-294
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change.Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with MATCH-RCA3 (50×50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied, under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B respectively. We apply a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity.Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands and UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increase in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected.The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.
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| 19. |
- Orru, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 14:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is expected to increase to extreme temperatures and lead to more intense formation of near-surface ozone. Higher temperatures can cause heat stress and ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant; both increase cardiorespiratory mortality. Using greenhouse gas and ozone precursor emission scenarios, global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models, epidemiological data, and population projections, we projected ozone- and heat-related health risks under a changing climate. European near-surface temperature was modelled with the regional climate model (RCA4), forced by the greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5 and the global climate model EC-EARTH, and near-surface ozone was modelled with the Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) model. Two periods were compared: recent climate in 1991-2000 and future climate in 2046-2055, projecting around a 2 degrees increase in global temperatures by that time. Projections of premature mortality considered future climate, future population, and future emissions separately and jointly to understand the relative importance of their contributions. Ozone currently causes 55 000 premature deaths annually in Europe due to long-term exposure, including a proportion of the estimated 26 000 deaths per year due to short-term exposures. When only taking into account the impact of a changing climate, up to an 11% increase in ozone-associated mortality is expected in some countries in Central and Southern Europe in 2050. However, projected decreases in ozone precursor emissions are expected to result in a decrease in ozone-related mortality (-30% as EUaverage). Due to aging and increasingly susceptible populations, the decrease in 2050 would be smaller, up to -24%. During summer months, ozone risks could combine with increasing temperatures, especially during the hottest periods and in densely populated urban areas. While the heat burden is currently of the same order of magnitude as ozone, due to increasing temperatures and decreasing ozone precursor emissions, heat-related mortality could be twice as large as ozone-related mortality in 2050.
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| 20. |
- Orru, Kati, et al.
(författare)
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Making Administrative Systems Adaptive to Emerging Climate Change-Related Health Effects : Case of Estonia
- 2018
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Ingår i: Atmosphere. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4433. ; 9:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To facilitate resilience to a changing climate, it is necessary to go beyond quantitative studies and take an in-depth look at the functioning of health systems and the variety of drivers shaping its effectiveness. We clarify the factors determining the effectiveness of the Estonian health system in assessing and managing the health risks of climate change. Document analyses, expert interviews with key informants from health systems whose responsibilities are relevant to climate change, and analysis of a population-based survey conducted in 2015, indicate that the health effects of climate change have not been mainstreamed into policy. Therefore, many of the potential synergistic effects of combining information on health systems, environment, and vulnerable populations remain unexploited. The limited uptake of the issue of climate change-related health risks may be attributed to the lack of experience with managing extreme weather events; limited understanding of how to incorporate projections of longer-term health risks into policies and plans; unclear divisions of responsibility; and market liberal state approaches. Minority groups and urban dwellers are placing strong pressure on the health system to address climate change-related risks, likely due to their lower levels of perceived control over their physical wellbeing. The results have implications for national, community, and individual resilience in upper-middle income countries in Eastern Europe.
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| 21. |
- Oudin Åström, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in Stockholm, Sweden
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 3:12, s. 1050-1054
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A changing climate is increasing the frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extent of heat waves. These changes are associated with increased human mortality during heat extremes. At the other end of the temperature scale, it has been widely speculated that cold-related mortality could decrease in a warmer world. We aim to answer a key question; the extent to which mortality due to temperature extremes in Stockholm, Sweden during 1980–2009 can be attributed to climate change that has occurred since our reference period (1900–1929). Mortality from heat extremes in 1980–2009 was double what would have occurred without climate change. Although temperature shifted towards warmer temperatures in the winter season, cold extremes occurred more frequently, contributing to a small increase of mortality during the winter months. No evidence was found for adaptation over 1980–2009.
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| 22. |
- Oudin Åström, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Evolution of Minimum Mortality Temperature in Stockholm, Sweden, 1901-2009
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : Environmental Health Perspectives. - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 124:6, s. 740-744
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The mortality impacts of hot and cold temperatures have been thoroughly documented, with most locations reporting a U-shaped relationship with a minimum mortality temperature (MMT) at which mortality is lowest. How MMT may have evolved over past decades as global mean surface temperature increased has not been thoroughly explored.OBJECTIVE: We used observations of daily mean temperatures to investigate whether MMT changed in Stockholm, Sweden, from the beginning of the 20th century until 2009.METHODS: Daily mortality and temperature data for the period 1901-2009 in Stockholm, Sweden were used to model the temperature-mortality relationship. We estimated MMT using distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models considering lags up to 21 days of daily mean temperature as the exposure variable. To avoid large influences on the MMT from intra and inter annual climatic variability, we estimated MMT based on 30-year periods. Further, we investigated whether there were trends in the absolute value of the MMT and the relative value of the MMT (the corresponding percentile of the same day temperature distribution) over the study period.RESULTS: Our findings suggest that both the absolute MMT and the relative MMT increased in Stockholm, Sweden over the course of the last century.CONCLUSIONS: The increase in MMT over the course of the last century suggests autonomous adaptation within the context of the large epidemiological, demographical and societal changes that occurred. Whether the rate of increase will be sustained with climate change is an open question.
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| 23. |
- Oudin Åström, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden
- 2018
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Ingår i: International journal of biometeorology. - : Springer Nature. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 62:9, s. 1777-1780
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Projections of temperature-related mortality rely upon exposure-response relationships using recent data. Analyzing long historical data and trends may extend knowledge of past and present impacts that may provide additional insight and improve future scenarios. We collected daily mean temperatures and daily all-cause mortality for the period 1901-2013 for Stockholm County, Sweden, and calculated the total attributable fraction of mortality due to non-optimal temperatures and quantified the contribution of cold and heat. Total mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures varied between periods and cold consistently had a larger impact on mortality than heat. Cold-related attributable fraction (AF) remained stable over time whereas heat-related AF decreased. AF on cold days remained stable over time, which may indicate that mortality during colder months may not decline as temperatures increase in the future. More research is needed to enhance estimates of burdens related to cold and heat in the future.
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| 24. |
- Rocklöv, Joacim, et al.
(författare)
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High Dose Extrapolation in Climate Change Projections of Heat-Related Mortality
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental Statistics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1085-7117 .- 1537-2693. ; 17:3, s. 461-475
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One challenge for statisticians and epidemiologists in projecting the future health risks of climate change is how to estimate exposure-response relationships when temperatures are higher than at present. Low dose extrapolation has been an area of rich study, resulting in well-defined methods and best practices. A primary difference between high dose and low dose extrapolation of exposure-response relationships is that low dose extrapolation is bounded at no exposure and no (or a baseline) response. With climate change altering weather variables and their variability beyond historical values, the highest future exposures in a region are projected to be higher than current experience. Modelers of the health risks of high temperatures are making assumptions about human responses associated with exposures outside the range of their data; these assumptions significantly affect the magnitude of projected future risks. Further, projections are affected by adaptation assumptions; we explore no adaptation (extrapolated response); individual (physiological) adaptation; and community adaptation. We present an example suggesting that linear models can make poor predictions of observations when no adaptation is assumed. Assumptions of the effects of weather above what has been observed needs to be more transparent in future studies. Statistical simulation studies could guide public health researchers in identifying best practices and reducing bias in projecting risks associated with extreme temperatures. Epidemiological studies should evaluate the extent and time required for adaptation, as well as the benefits of public health interventions.
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| 25. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 9:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Keeping the Earth system in a stable and resilient state, to safeguard Earth's life support systems while ensuring that Earth's benefits, risks, and related responsibilities are equitably shared, constitutes the grand challenge for human development in the Anthropocene. Here, we describe a framework that the recently formed Earth Commission will use to define and quantify target ranges for a safe and just corridor that meets these goals. Although safe and just Earth system targets are interrelated, we see safe as primarily referring to a stable Earth system and just targets as being associated with meeting human needs and reducing exposure to risks. To align safe and just dimensions, we propose to address the equity dimensions of each safe target for Earth system regulating systems and processes. The more stringent of the safe or just target ranges then defines the corridor. Identifying levers of social transformation aimed at meeting the safe and just targets and challenges associated with translating the corridor to actors at multiple scales present scope for future work.
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