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Sökning: WFRF:(Ernst Gerald G. J.)

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2.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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3.
  • Richards, Stephen, et al. (författare)
  • The genome of the model beetle and pest Tribolium castaneum.
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Nature. - 1476-4687. ; 452:7190, s. 949-55
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Tribolium castaneum is a representative of earth’s most numerous eukaryotic order, a powerful model organism for the study of generalized insect development, and also an important pest of stored agricultural products. We describe its genome sequence here. This omnivorous beetle has evolved an ability to interact with a diverse chemical environment as evidenced by large expansions in odorant and gustatory receptors, as well as p450 and other detoxification enzymes. Developmental patterns in Tribolium are more representative of other arthropods than those found in Drosophila, a fact represented in gene content and function. For one, Tribolium has retained more ancestral genes involved in cell-cell communication than Drosophila, and some are expressed in the growth zone crucial for axial elongation in short germ development. Systemic RNAi in T. castaneum appears to use mechanisms distinct from those found in C. elegans, but nevertheless offers similar power for the elucidation of gene function and identification of targets for selective insect control.
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4.
  • Keller, Joerg, et al. (författare)
  • Fundamental changes in the activity of the natrocarbonatite volcano Oldoinyo Lengai, Tanzania
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of Volcanology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0258-8900 .- 1432-0819. ; 72:8, s. 893-912
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • With a paroxysmal ash eruption on 4 September 2007 and the highly explosive activity continuing in 2008, Oldoinyo Lengai (OL) has dramatically changed its behavior, crater morphology, and magma composition after 25 years of quiet extrusion of fluid natrocarbonatite lava. This explosive activity resembles the explosive phases of 1917,1940-1941, and 1966-1967, which were characterized by mixed ashes with dominantly nephelinitic and natrocarbonatitic components. Ash and lapilli from the 2007-2008 explosive phase were collected on the slopes of OL as well as on the active cinder cone, which now occupies the entire north crater having buried completely all earlier natrocarbonatite features. The lapilli and ash samples comprise nepheline, wollastonite, combeite, Na-(a) over circle kermanite, Ti-andradite, resorbed pyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides, and a Na-Ca carbonate phase with high but varying phosphorus contents which is similar, but not identical, to the common gregoryite phenocrysts in natrocarbonatite. Lapilli from the active cone best characterize the erupted material as carbonated combeite- wollastonite-melilite nephelinite. The juvenile components represent a fundamentally new magma composition for OL, containing 25-30 wt.% SiO2, with 7-11 wt.% CO2, high alkalies (Na2O 15-19%, K2O 4-5%), and trace-element signatures reminiscent of natrocarbonatite enrichments. These data define an intermediate composition between natrocarbonatite and nephelinite, with about one third natrocarbonatite and two thirds nephelinite component. The data are consistent with a model in which the carbonated silicate magma has evolved from the common combeite-wollastonite nephelinite (CWN) of OL by enrichment of CO2 and alkalies and is close to the liquid immiscible separation of natrocarbonatite from carbonated nephelinite. Material ejected in April/May 2008 indicates reversion to a more common CWN composition.
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5.
  • Kervyn, Matthieu, et al. (författare)
  • Fundamental changes in the activity of the natrocarbonatite volcano Oldoinyo Lengai, Tanzania
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of Volcanology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0258-8900 .- 1432-0819. ; 72:8, s. 913-931
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • On September 4,2007, after 25 years of effusive natrocarbonatite eruptions, the eruptive activity of Oldoinyo Lengai (OL), N Tanzania, changed abruptly to episodic explosive eruptions. This transition was preceded by a voluminous lava eruption in March 2006, a year of quiescence, resumption of natrocarbonatite eruptions in June 2007, and a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm in July 2007. Despite the lack of ground-based monitoring, the evolution in OL eruption dynamics is documented based on the available field observations, ASTER and MODIS satellite images, and almost-daily photos provided by local pilots. Satellite data enabled identification of a phase of voluminous lava effusion in the 2 weeks prior to the onset of explosive eruptions. After the onset, the activity varied from 100 m high ash jets to 2-15 km high violent, steady or unsteady, eruption columns dispersing ash to 100 km distance. The explosive eruptions built up a similar to 400 m wide, similar to 75 m high intra-crater pyroclastic cone. Time series data for eruption column height show distinct peaks at the end of September 2007 and February 2008, the latter being associated with the first pyroclastic flows to be documented at OL. Chemical analyses of the erupted products, presented in a companion paper (Keller et al. 2010), show that the 2007-2008 explosive eruptions are associated with an undersaturated carbonated silicate melt. This new phase of explosive eruptions provides constraints on the factors causing the transition from natrocarbonatite effusive eruptions to explosive eruptions of carbonated nephelinite magma, observed repetitively in the last 100 years at OL.
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6.
  • Kervyn, Matthieu, et al. (författare)
  • Voluminous lava flows at Oldoinyo Lengai in 2006 : chronology of events and insights into the shallow magmatic system
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of Volcanology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0258-8900 .- 1432-0819. ; 70:9, s. 1069-1086
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The largest natrocarbonatite lava flow eruption ever documented at Oldoinyo Lengai, NW Tanzania, occurred from March 25 to April 5, 2006, in two main phases. It was associated with hornito collapse, rapid extrusion of lava covering a third of the crater and emplacement of a 3-km long compound rubbly pahoehoe to blocky aa-like flow on the W flank. The eruption was followed by rapid enlargement of a pit crater. The erupted natrocarbonatite lava has high silica content (3% SiO2). The eruption chronology is reconstructed from eyewitness and news media reports and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, which provide the most reliable evidence to constrain the eruption’s onset and variations in activity. The eruption products were mapped in the field and the total erupted lava volume estimated at 9.2 +/- 3.0x10(5) m(3). The event chronology and field evidence are consistent with vent construct instability causing magma mixing and rapid extrusion from shallow reservoirs. It provides new insights into and highlights the evolution of the shallow magmatic system at this unique natrocarbonatite volcano.
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