| 1. |
- Oehri, Jacqueline, et al.
(författare)
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Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994–2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm−2) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.
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| 2. |
- Watts, Jennifer D., et al.
(författare)
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Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high-latitude net ecosystem carbon budget
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 29:7, s. 1870-1889
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic-boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic-boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003–2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE; Reco − GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH4) emissions for the Arctic-boreal zone using a satellite data-driven process-model for northern ecosystems (TCFM-Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM-Arctic to obtain daily 1-km2 flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan-Arctic-boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of −850 Tg CO2-C year−1. Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH4 emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH4) were estimated at 35 Tg CH4-C year−1. Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high-latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site-to-regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change.
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| 3. |
- Box, Jason E., et al.
(författare)
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Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 14:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no.
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| 4. |
- Chang, Kuang Yu, et al.
(författare)
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Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1, s. 2266-2266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wetland methane (CH4) emissions ([Formula: see text]) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, [Formula: see text] projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent [Formula: see text] temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that [Formula: see text] are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between [Formula: see text] and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between [Formula: see text] and temperature, suggesting larger [Formula: see text] sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH4 production are thus needed to improve global CH4 budget assessments.
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| 5. |
- Virkkala, Anna Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 27:17, s. 4040-4059
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.
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| 6. |
- Weston, David J., et al.
(författare)
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The Sphagnome Project : enabling ecological and evolutionary insights through a genus-level sequencing project
- 2018
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Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : Wiley. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 217:1, s. 16-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Considerable progress has been made in ecological and evolutionary genetics with studies demonstrating how genes underlying plant and microbial traits can influence adaptation and even 'extend' to influence community structure and ecosystem level processes. Progress in this area is limited to model systems with deep genetic and genomic resources that often have negligible ecological impact or interest. Thus, important linkages between genetic adaptations and their consequences at organismal and ecological scales are often lacking. Here we introduce the Sphagnome Project, which incorporates genomics into a long-running history of Sphagnum research that has documented unparalleled contributions to peatland ecology, carbon sequestration, biogeochemistry, microbiome research, niche construction, and ecosystem engineering. The Sphagnome Project encompasses a genus-level sequencing effort that represents a new type of model system driven not only by genetic tractability, but by ecologically relevant questions and hypotheses.
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| 7. |
- Zona, Donatella, et al.
(författare)
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Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season.
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| 8. |
- Euskirchen, Eugénie S., et al.
(författare)
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Current knowledge and uncertainties associated with the Arctic greenhouse gas budget
- 2022
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Ingår i: Balancing Greenhouse Gas Budgets : Accounting for Natural and Anthropogenic Flows of CO2 and other Trace Gases - Accounting for Natural and Anthropogenic Flows of CO2 and other Trace Gases. - 9780128149522 - 9780128149539 ; , s. 159-201
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- • The Arctic is continuing to warm faster than any other region on Earth, but key uncertainties remain in our knowledge of the Arctic carbon cycle. • We review the most current knowledge pertaining to estimates of arctic greenhouse gas components and discuss uncertainties associated with these measurements and models. • While the Arctic Ocean is consistently estimated as a carbon sink, we have yet to reach an agreement on either the magnitude or the sign of the arctic terrestrial carbon budget. • Much of the uncertainty in the arctic carbon budget is related to the extent of the amount of carbon released as permafrost thaws, the magnitude of shoulder season and winter ecosystem respiration, and the impact of rising temperature and atmospheric [CO2] on plant growth. • We cannot count on the Arctic to store as much carbon as it has in the past, and evidence indicates it will likely store much less.
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| 9. |
- Ichii, Kazuhito, et al.
(författare)
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New data-driven estimation of terrestrial CO2 fluxes in Asia using a standardized database of eddy covariance measurements, remote sensing data, and support vector regression
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953. ; 122:4, s. 767-795
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The lack of a standardized database of eddy covariance observations has been an obstacle for data-driven estimation of terrestrial CO2 fluxes in Asia. In this study, we developed such a standardized database using 54 sites from various databases by applying consistent postprocessing for data-driven estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). Data-driven estimation was conducted by using a machine learning algorithm: support vector regression (SVR), with remote sensing data for 2000 to 2015 period. Site-level evaluation of the estimated CO2 fluxes shows that although performance varies in different vegetation and climate classifications, GPP and NEE at 8days are reproduced (e.g., r2=0.73 and 0.42 for 8day GPP and NEE). Evaluation of spatially estimated GPP with Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 sensor-based Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence shows that monthly GPP variations at subcontinental scale were reproduced by SVR (r2=1.00, 0.94, 0.91, and 0.89 for Siberia, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively). Evaluation of spatially estimated NEE with net atmosphere-land CO2 fluxes of Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Level 4A product shows that monthly variations of these data were consistent in Siberia and East Asia; meanwhile, inconsistency was found in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, differences in the land CO2 fluxes from SVR-NEE and GOSAT Level 4A were partially explained by accounting for the differences in the definition of land CO2 fluxes. These data-driven estimates can provide a new opportunity to assess CO2 fluxes in Asia and evaluate and constrain terrestrial ecosystem models.
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| 10. |
- Knox, Sara H., et al.
(författare)
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FLUXNET-CH4 Synthesis Activity : Objectives, Observations, and Future Directions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 100:12, s. 2607-2632
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper describes the formation of, and initial results for, a new FLUXNET coordination network for ecosystem-scale methane (CH4) measurements at 60 sites globally, organized by the Global Carbon Project in partnership with other initiatives and regional flux tower networks. The objectives of the effort are presented along with an overview of the coverage of eddy covariance (EC) CH4 flux measurements globally, initial results comparing CH4 fluxes across the sites, and future research directions and needs. Annual estimates of net CH4 fluxes across sites ranged from -0.2 +/- 0.02 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for an upland forest site to 114.9 +/- 13.4 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for an estuarine freshwater marsh, with fluxes exceeding 40 g C m(-2) yr(-1) at multiple sites. Average annual soil and air temperatures were found to be the strongest predictor of annual CH4 flux across wetland sites globally. Water table position was positively correlated with annual CH4 emissions, although only for wetland sites that were not consistently inundated throughout the year. The ratio of annual CH4 fluxes to ecosystem respiration increased significantly with mean site temperature. Uncertainties in annual CH4 estimates due to gap-filling and random errors were on average +/- 1.6 g C m(-2) yr(-1) at 95% confidence, with the relative error decreasing exponentially with increasing flux magnitude across sites. Through the analysis and synthesis of a growing EC CH4 flux database, the controls on ecosystem CH4 fluxes can be better understood, used to inform and validate Earth system models, and reconcile differences between land surface model- and atmospheric-based estimates of CH4 emissions.
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| 11. |
- Kropp, Heather, et al.
(författare)
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Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across Arctic and Boreal ecosystems
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 16:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (>40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.
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| 12. |
- Olefeldt, David, et al.
(författare)
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The Boreal-Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD)
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Gesellschaft MBH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:11, s. 5127-5149
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and future methane emissions. Here we present the BorealArctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD), a land cover dataset based on an expert assessment, extrapolated using random forest modelling from available spatial datasets of climate, topography, soils, permafrost conditions, vegetation, wetlands, and surface water extents and dynamics. In BAWLD, we estimate the fractional coverage of five wetland, seven lake, and three river classes within 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid cells that cover the northern boreal and tundra biomes (17 % of the global land surface). Land cover classes were defined using criteria that ensured distinct methane emissions among classes, as indicated by a co-developed comprehensive dataset of methane flux observations. In BAWLD, wetlands occupied 3.2 x 10(6) km(2) (14 % of domain) with a 95 % confidence interval between 2.8 and 3.8 x 10(6) km(2). Bog, fen, and permafrost bog were the most abundant wetland classes, covering similar to 28 % each of the total wetland area, while the highest-methane-emitting marsh and tundra wetland classes occupied 5 % and 12 %, respectively. Lakes, defined to include all lentic open-water ecosystems regardless of size, covered 1.4 x 10(6) km(2) (6 % of domain). Low-methane-emitting large lakes (>10 km(2)) and glacial lakes jointly represented 78 % of the total lake area, while high-emitting peatland and yedoma lakes covered 18 % and 4 %, respectively. Small (<0.1 km(2)) glacial, peatland, and yedoma lakes combined covered 17 % of the total lake area but contributed disproportionally to the overall spatial uncertainty in lake area with a 95 % confidence interval between 0.15 and 0.38 x 10(6) km(2). Rivers and streams were estimated to cover 0.12 x 10(6) km(2) (0.5 % of domain), of which 8 % was associated with high-methane-emitting headwaters that drain organic-rich landscapes. Distinct combinations of spatially co-occurring wetland and lake classes were identified across the BAWLD domain, allowing for the mapping of "wetscapes" that have characteristic methane emission magnitudes and sensitivities to climate change at regional scales. With BAWLD, we provide a dataset which avoids double-accounting of wetland, lake, and river extents and which includes confidence intervals for each land cover class. As such, BAWLD will be suitable for many hydrological and biogeochemical modelling and upscaling efforts for the northern boreal and arctic region, in particular those aimed at improving assessments of current and future methane emissions.
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| 13. |
- Peltola, Olli, et al.
(författare)
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Monthly gridded data product of northern wetland methane emissions based on upscaling eddy covariance observations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 11:3, s. 1263-1289
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural wetlands constitute the largest and most uncertain source of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere and a large fraction of them are found in the northern latitudes. These emissions are typically estimated using process ("bottom-up") or inversion ("top-down") models. However, estimates from these two types of models are not independent of each other since the top-down estimates usually rely on the a priori estimation of these emissions obtained with process models. Hence, independent spatially explicit validation data are needed. Here we utilize a random forest (RF) machine-learning technique to upscale CH4 eddy covariance flux measurements from 25 sites to estimate CH4 wetland emissions from the northern latitudes (north of 45° N). Eddy covariance data from 2005 to 2016 are used for model development. The model is then used to predict emissions during 2013 and 2014. The predictive performance of the RF model is evaluated using a leave-one-site-out cross-validation scheme. The performance (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency D 0:47) is comparable to previous studies upscaling net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and studies comparing process model output against site-level CH4 emission data. The global distribution of wetlands is one major source of uncertainty for upscaling CH4. Thus, three wetland distribution maps are utilized in the upscaling. Depending on the wetland distribution map, the annual emissions for the northern wetlands yield 32 (22.3-41.2, 95 % confidence interval calculated from a RF model ensemble), 31 (21.4-39.9) or 38 (25.9-49.5) Tg(CH4) yr-1. To further evaluate the uncertainties of the upscaled CH4 flux data products we also compared them against output from two process models (LPX-Bern and WetCHARTs), and methodological issues related to CH4 flux upscaling are discussed. The monthly upscaled CH4 flux data products are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2560163 (Peltola et al., 2019).
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| 14. |
- Qiu, Chunjing, et al.
(författare)
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ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11:2, s. 497-519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r2 Combining double low line 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF Combining double low line 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 Combining double low line 0.78, MEF Combining double low line 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 Combining double low line 0.42, MEF Combining double low line 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 Combining double low line 0.38, MEF Combining double low line 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r2<0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.
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| 15. |
- Walsh, John E., et al.
(författare)
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Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas : A review
- 2020
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Ingår i: Earth-Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-8252 .- 1872-6828. ; 209
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The greatest impacts of climate change on ecosystems, wildlife and humans often arise from extreme events rather than changes in climatic means. Northern high latitudes, including the Arctic, experience a variety of climate-related extreme events, yet there has been little attempt to synthesize information on extreme events in this region. This review surveys work on various types of extreme events in northern high latitudes, addressing (1) the evidence for variations and changes based on analyses of recent historical data and (2) projected changes based primarily on studies utilizing global climate models. The survey of extreme weather and climate events includes temperature, precipitation, snow, freezing rain, atmospheric blocking, cyclones, and wind. The survey also includes cryospheric and biophysical impacts: sea ice rapid loss events, Greenland Ice Sheet melt, floods, drought, wildfire, coastal erosion, terrestrial ecosystems, and marine ecosystems. Temperature and sea ice rank at the high end of the spectra of evidence for change and confidence in future change, while drought, flooding and cyclones rank at the lower end. Research priorities identified on the basis of this review include greater use of high-resolution models and observing system enhancements that target extreme events. There is also a need for further work on attribution, impacts on ecosystems and humans, and thresholds or tipping points that may be triggered by extreme events in high latitudes.
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