| 1. |
- Bhowmik, Avit K., et al.
(författare)
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Powers of 10 : Seeking 'sweet spots' for rapid climate and sustainability actions between individual and global scales
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and related sustainability initiatives will require halving of global greenhouse gas emissions each decade from now on through to 2050, when net zero emissions should be achieved. To reach such significant reductions requires a rapid and strategic scaling of existing and emerging technologies and practices, coupled with economic and social transformations and novel governance solutions. Here we present a new 'Powers of 10' (P10) logarithmic framework and demonstrate its potential as a practical tool for decision makers and change agents at multiple scales to inform and catalyze engagement and actions, complementing and adding nuance to existing frameworks. P10 assists in identifying the suitable cohorts and cohort ranges for rapidly deploying climate and sustainability actions between a single individual and the globally projected ~ 10 billion persons by 2050. Applying a robust dataset of climate solutions from Project Drawdown's Plausible scenario that could cumulatively reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1051 gigatons (Gt) against a reference scenario (2190 Gt) between 2020 and 2050, we seek to identify a 'sweet spot' where these climate and sustainability actions are suitably scaled. We suggest that prioritizing the analyzed climate actions between community and urban scales, where global and local converge, can help catalyze and enhance individual, household and local practices, and support national and international policies and finances for rapid sustainability transformations.
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| 2. |
- Elmqvist, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Sustainability and resilience for transformation in the urban century
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 2:4, s. 267-273
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have entered the urban century and addressing a broad suite of sustainability challenges in urban areas is increasingly key for our chances to transform the entire planet towards sustainability. For example, cities are responsible for 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions and, at the same time, 90% of urban areas are situated on coastlines, making the majority of the world's population increasingly vulnerable to climate change. While urbanization accelerates, meeting the challenges will require unprecedented transformative solutions for sustainability with a careful consideration of resilience in their implementation. However, global and local policy processes often use vague or narrow definitions of the concepts of 'urban sustainability' and 'urban resilience', leading to deep confusion, particularly in instances when the two are used interchangeably. Confusion and vagueness slow down needed transformation processes, since resilience can be undesirable and many sustainability goals contrast, or even challenge efforts to improve resilience. Here, we propose a new framework that resolves current contradictions and tensions; a framework that we believe will significantly help urban policy and implementation processes in addressing new challenges and contributing to global sustainability in the urban century.
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| 3. |
- Falk, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Exponential Roadmap: Scaling 36 Solutions to Halve Emissions by 2030
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The 2019 Exponential Roadmap focuses on moving from incremental to exponential climate action in the next decade. It presents 36 economically- viable solutions to cut global greenhouse gas emissions 50% by 2030 and the strategies to scale this transformation. The roadmap is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global average temperature “well below 2°C” and aiming for 1.5°C above pre- industrial levels. The 2019 roadmap is the second in the series. Each new roadmap updates solutions that have proven potential to scale and charts progress towards exponential scaling. The roadmap, based on the carbon law (see box) is a collaboration between academia, business and civil society. The roadmap is complemented with a high-ambition narrative, Meeting the 1.5°C Ambition, that presents the case why holding global average temperature increase to just 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is important. Since the first roadmap, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its special report on 1.5°C. The report concluded that the economic and humanitarian risks of a 2°C world are significantly higher than 1.5°C. The remaining emissions budget for 1.5°C is small, and will be exceeded within ten to fifteen years at current emission rates. The window of feasibility is closing rapidly. The global economic benefit of a low-carbon future is estimated at US$26 trillion by 2030 compared with staying on the current high-carbon pathway. The scale of transformation – halving emissions by 2030 – is unprecedented but the speed is not. Some cities and companies can transform significantly faster. Developed nations with significant historic emissions have a responsibility to reduce emissions faster. Greenhouse gas emissions, and the solutions to reduce them, are grouped by six sectors: energy, industry, transport, buildings, food consumption, nature-based solutions (sources and sinks). Meeting the 1.5°C goal means implementing solutions in parallel across all sectors. The solutions must scale exponentially. The roadmap identifies four levers required to scale the transformation as well as necessary actions for each: policy, climate leadership and movements, finance and exponential technology. Implementation must be fair and just or risk deep resistance.
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| 4. |
- Folke, Carl, et al.
(författare)
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Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere
- 2021
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 50:4, s. 834-869
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.
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| 5. |
- Gaffney, Owen
(författare)
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Anthropocene now
- 2017
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Ingår i: New scientist (1971). - 0262-4079. ; 234:3122, s. 24-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Gaffney, Owen
(författare)
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Putin's real prize?
- 2017
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Ingår i: New scientist (1971). - 0262-4079. ; 233:3118, s. 24-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 8. |
- Gaffney, Owen
(författare)
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What's blowin' in the wind?
- 2017
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Ingår i: New scientist (1971). - 0262-4079. ; 236:3157-3158, s. 24-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- How will global temperatures, carbon dioxide levels, electric cars and Trump's coal dream fare in 2018?
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| 9. |
- Griggs, David, et al.
(författare)
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An integrated framework for sustainable development goals
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 19:4, s. 49-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The United Nations (UN) Rio+20 summit committed nations to develop a set of universal sustainable development goals (SDGs) to build on the millennium development goals (MDGs) set to expire in 2015. Research now indicates that humanity's impact on Earth's life support system is so great that further global environmental change risks undermining long-term prosperity and poverty eradication goals. Socioeconomic development and global sustainability are often posed as being in conflict because of tradeoffs between a growing world population, as well as higher standards of living, and managing the effects of production and consumption on the global environment. We have established a framework for an evidence-based architecture for new goals and targets. Building on six SDGs, which integrate development and environmental considerations, we developed a comprehensive framework of goals and associated targets, which demonstrate that it is possible, and necessary, to develop integrated targets relating to food, energy, water, and ecosystem services goals; thus providing a neutral evidence-based approach to support SDG target discussions. Global analyses, using an integrated global target equation, are close to providing indicators for these targets. Alongside development-only targets and environment-only targets, these integrated targets would ensure that synergies are maximized and trade-offs are managed in the implementation of SDGs.
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| 10. |
- Norström, Albert, et al.
(författare)
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Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 3:3, s. 182-190
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Research practice, funding agencies and global science organizations suggest that research aimed at addressing sustainability challenges is most effective when 'co-produced' by academics and non-academics. Co-production promises to address the complex nature of contemporary sustainability challenges better than more traditional scientific approaches. But definitions of knowledge co-production are diverse and often contradictory. We propose a set of four general principles that underlie high-quality knowledge co-production for sustainability research. Using these principles, we offer practical guidance on how to engage in meaningful co-productive practices, and how to evaluate their quality and success. Research addressing sustainability issues is more effective if 'co-produced' by academics and non-academics, but definitions of co-production vary. This Perspective presents four knowledge co-production principles for sustainability research and guides on how to engage in co-productive practices.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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A roadmap for rapid decarbonization : Emissions inevitably approach zero with a “carbon law”
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 355:6331, s. 1269-1271
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Although the Paris Agreement's goals (1) are aligned with science (2) and can, in principle, be technically and economically achieved (3), alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism. Following the Agreement, which became international law earlier than expected, several countries published mid-century decarbonization strategies, with more due soon. Model-based decarbonization assessments (4) and scenarios often struggle to capture transformative change and the dynamics associated with it: disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change in human behavior. For example, in just 2 years, China's coal use swung from 3.7% growth in 2013 to a decline of 3.7% in 2015 (5). To harness these dynamics and to calibrate for short-term realpolitik, we propose framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global decadal roadmap based on a simple heuristic—a “carbon law”—of halving gross anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions every decade. Complemented by immediately instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down land-use CO2 emissions, this can lead to net-zero emissions around mid-century, a path necessary to limit warming to well below 2°C.
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| 13. |
- Seitzinger, Sybil P., et al.
(författare)
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Planetary Stewardship in an Urbanizing World : Beyond City Limits
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:8, s. 787-794
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cities are rapidly increasing in importance as a major factor shaping the Earth system, and therefore, must take corresponding responsibility. With currently over half the world's population, cities are supported by resources originating from primarily rural regions often located around the world far distant from the urban loci of use. The sustainability of a city can no longer be considered in isolation from the sustainability of human and natural resources it uses from proximal or distant regions, or the combined resource use and impacts of cities globally. The world's multiple and complex environmental and social challenges require interconnected solutions and coordinated governance approaches to planetary stewardship. We suggest that a key component of planetary stewardship is a global system of cities that develop sustainable processes and policies in concert with its non-urban areas. The potential for cities to cooperate as a system and with rural connectivity could increase their capacity to effect change and foster stewardship at the planetary scale and also increase their resource security.
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| 14. |
- Stafford-Smith, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Integration : the key to implementing the Sustainable Development Goals
- 2017
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Ingår i: Sustainability Science. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-4065 .- 1862-4057. ; 12:6, s. 911-919
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- On 25 September, 2015, world leaders met at the United Nations in New York, where they adopted the Sustainable Development Goals. These 17 goals and 169 targets set out an agenda for sustainable development for all nations that embraces economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental protection. Now, the agenda moves from agreeing the goals to implementing and ultimately achieving them. Across the goals, 42 targets focus on means of implementation, and the final goal, Goal 17, is entirely devoted to means of implementation. However, these implementation targets are largely silent about interlinkages and interdependencies among goals. This leaves open the possibility of perverse outcomes and unrealised synergies. We demonstrate that there must be greater attention on interlinkages in three areas: across sectors (e.g., finance, agriculture, energy, and transport), across societal actors (local authorities, government agencies, private sector, and civil society), and between and among low, medium and high income countries. Drawing on a global sustainability science and practice perspective, we provide seven recommendations to improve these interlinkages at both global and national levels, in relation to the UN's categories of means of implementation: finance, technology, capacity building, trade, policy coherence, partnerships, and, finally, data, monitoring and accountability.
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| 15. |
- van Vuuren, Detlef P., et al.
(författare)
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Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050
- 2022
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 5:2, s. 142-156
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways.
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| 16. |
- Warszawski, Lila, et al.
(författare)
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All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C : a scenario appraisal
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 16:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).
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