| 1. |
- Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Current understanding of groundwater recharge and groundwater drought in Sweden compared to countries with similar geology and climate
- 2021
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Ingår i: Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 103:4, s. 323-345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recently, groundwater in Sweden has attracted media attention due to supply shortages caused by dry periods and low groundwater levels. About half of Swedish drinking water stems from groundwater. The small Swedish aquifers are highly dependent on frequent and sufficient recharge. Groundwater recharge forms the link between meteorological and groundwater drought and thus the main link between climate change and sustainable water supply. This study evaluated whether the current knowledge on groundwater recharge and groundwater drought is sufficient to mitigate the impacts of climate change. A review of international literature on groundwater recharge in regions with conditions similar to Sweden was performed. National literature was compared and links to international studies evaluated. A survey among Swedish groundwater experts complemented the study. Findings are that research on groundwater recharge has been scarce in Sweden over the last decades and Swedish experts seem to not have taken much notice of international literature. It is concluded that Sweden is not well prepared to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater resources, as the most crucial process linking climate to groundwater is not well understood. The study has a strong focus on Sweden, however, the results are also relevant for countries with similar geology and climate. One main conclusion is that groundwater recharge studies often remain unique, and thus hardly transferable and comparable. Two or more independent studies are rarely applied in parallel, verification based on direct groundwater observations is not common. This raises concerns about the reliability of climate change impact predictions on groundwater.
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| 2. |
- Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Similarity-based approaches in hydrogeology: proposal of a new concept for data-scarce groundwater resource characterization and prediction
- 2021
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Ingår i: Hydrogeology Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1435-0157 .- 1431-2174. ; 29:5, s. 1693-1709
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new concept is proposed for describing, analysing and predicting the dynamic behaviour of groundwater resources based on classification and similarity. The concept makes use of the ideas put forward by the “PUB” (predictions in ungauged basins) initiative in surface-water hydrology. One of the approaches developed in PUB uses the principle that similar catchments, exposed to similar weather conditions, will generate a similar discharge response at the catchment outlet. This way, models developed for well-observed catchments can be used to make predictions for ungauged catchments with similar properties (topography, land use, etc.). The concept proposed here applies the same idea to groundwater systems, with the goal to make predictions of the dynamic behaviour of groundwater in poorly observed systems using similarities to well-observed and understood systems. This paper gives an overview of the main ideas, the methodological background, the progress so far, and the challenges that the authors regard as most crucial for further development. One of the main goals of this article is thus to raise interest for this new concept within the groundwater community. There are a multitude of highly interesting aspects to investigate, and a community effort, as with PUB, is required. A second goal is to foster and exchange ideas between the groundwater and surface water research communities who, while often working on similar problems, have often missed the opportunity to learn from each other.
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| 3. |
- Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Systematic visual analysis of groundwater hydrographs: potential benefits and challenges
- 2022
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Ingår i: Hydrogeology Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1431-2174 .- 1435-0157. ; 30, s. 359-78
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Visual analysis of time series in hydrology is frequently seen as a crucial step to becoming acquainted with the nature of the data, as well as detecting unexpected errors, biases, etc. Human eyes, in particular those of a trained expert, are well suited to recognize irregularities and distinct patterns. However, there are limits as to what the eye can resolve and process; moreover, visual analysis is by definition subjective and has low reproducibility. Visual inspection is frequently mentioned in publications, but rarely described in detail, even though it may have significantly affected decisions made in the process of performing the underlying study. This paper presents a visual analysis of groundwater hydrographs that has been performed in relation to attempts to classify groundwater time series as part of developing a new concept for prediction in data-scarce groundwater systems. Within this concept, determining the similarity of groundwater hydrographs is essential. As standard approaches for similarity analysis of groundwater hydrographs do not yet exist, different approaches were developed and tested. This provided the opportunity to carry out a comparison between visual analysis and formal, automated classification approaches. The presented visual classification was carried out on two sets of time series from central Europe and Fennoscandia. It is explained why and where visual classification can be beneficial but also where the limitations and challenges associated with the approach lie. It is concluded that systematic visual analysis of time series in hydrology, despite its subjectivity and low reproducibility, should receive much more attention.
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| 4. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Hydroclimate changes over Sweden in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: a millennium perspective
- 2021
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Ingår i: Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 103:2, s. 103-31
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change poses additional risks for natural and human systems including the hydrological cycle, leading to altered temporal and spatial variation of hydroclimatic conditions. This work assessed the current understanding of the dryness and wetness conditions in Sweden over the last two millenniums based on proxy and instrumental data, as well as climate model simulations and projections until the end of the twenty-first century. The assessment represents a summary of the existing literature concerning analysis of four selected indices for dry/wet conditions relating to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and soil moisture (SPEI, PDSI [including scPDSI], SPI, and AI). SPEI considers both precipitation and PET and can show hydroclimatic conditions at different time scales. Therefore, it was chosen to summarize the past and future changes. A focus is put on dry conditions, as drought has strong influences on groundwater which is an important freshwater resource for Sweden. The millennium historical perspective reveals that the current climate is relatively wet and the future would become even wetter as a general wetting trend started some 120 years ago. However, there have been and will be large variations of both dry and wet conditions on short time scales, especially on decadal and interannual time scales. Further, the changes since the 1950s show a regional pattern with most significant wetting in the north, a slightly overall wetting in the south but a drying in central-eastern part including the island of Gotland since 1981. This pattern is broadly consistent with climate model projections for the future.
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| 5. |
- Giese, Markus, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Comparative hydrogeology – reference analysis of groundwater dynamics from neighbouring observation wells
- 2020
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:10, s. 1685-1706
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Groundwater level fluctuations are caused by spatial and temporal superposition of processes within and outside the aquifer system. Most of the subsurface processes are usually observed on a small scale. Upscaling to the regional scale, as required for future climate change scenarios, is difficult due to data scarcity and increasing complexity. In contrast to the limited availability of system characteristics, high-resolution data records of groundwater hydrographs are more generally available. Exploiting the information contained in these records should thus be a priority for analysis of the chronical lack of data describing groundwater system characteristics. This study analyses the applicability of 63 indices derived from daily hydrographs to quantify different dynamics of groundwater levels in unconfined gravel aquifers from three groundwater regions (Bavaria, Germany). Based on the results of two different skill tests, the study aids index selection for different dynamic components of groundwater hydrographs.
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| 6. |
- Haaf, Ezra, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Data-Driven Estimation of Groundwater Level Time-Series at Unmonitored Sites Using Comparative Regional Analysis
- 2023
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Ingår i: Water Resources Research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 59:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new method is presented to efficiently estimate daily groundwater level time series at unmonitored sites by linking groundwater dynamics to local hydrogeological system controls. The proposed approach is based on the concept of comparative regional analysis, an approach widely used in surface water hydrology, but uncommon in hydrogeology. Using physiographic and climatic site descriptors, the method utilizes regression analysis to estimate cumulative frequency distributions of groundwater levels (groundwater head duration curves, HDC) at unmonitored locations. The HDC is then used to construct a groundwater hydrograph using time series from distance-weighted neighboring monitored (donor) locations. For estimating times series at unmonitored sites, in essence, spatio-temporal interpolation, stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and nearest neighbors are compared. The methods were applied to 10-year daily groundwater level time series at 157 sites in unconfined alluvial aquifers in Southern Germany. Models of HDCs were physically plausible and showed that physiographic and climatic controls on groundwater level fluctuations are nonlinear and dynamic, varying in significance from “wet” to “dry” aquifer conditions. XGB yielded a significantly higher predictive skill than nearest neighbor and MLR. However, donor site selection is of key importance. The study presents a novel approach for regionalization and infilling of groundwater level time series that also aids conceptual understanding of controls on groundwater dynamics, both central tasks for water resources managers.
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| 7. |
- Haaf, Ezra, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Physiographic and climatic controls on regional groundwater dynamics
- 2020
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Ingår i: Water Resources Research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 56:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The main goal of this study is to explore whether the ideas established by surface water hydrologists in the context of “PUB” (predictions in ungauged basins) can be useful in hydrogeology. The concrete question is whether it is possible to create predictive models for groundwater systems with no or few observations based on knowledge derived from similar groundwater systems which are well‐observed. To do so, this study analyses the relationship between temporal dynamics of groundwater levels and climatic and physiographic characteristics. The analysis is based on data from 341 wells in Southern Germany with ten‐year daily groundwater hydrographs. Observation wells are used in confined and unconfined sand and gravel aquifers from narrow mountainous valleys as well as more extensive lowland alluvial aquifers. Groundwater dynamics at each location are summarized with 46 indices describing features of groundwater hydrographs. Besides borehole log‐derived geologic information, local and regional morphologic characteristics as well as topography‐derived boundary and climatic descriptors were derived for each well. Regression relationships were established by mining the data for associations between dynamics and descriptors with forward stepwise regression at a confidence level >95%. The most important predictors are geology and boundary conditions and secondarily, climate, as well as some topographic features, such as regional convergence. The multiple regression models are in general agreement with process understanding linked to groundwater dynamics in unconfined aquifers. This systematic investigation suggests that statistical regionalization of groundwater dynamics in ungauged aquifers based on map‐derived physiographic and climatic controls may be feasible.
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| 8. |
- Nygren, Michelle, et al.
(författare)
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Changes in seasonality of groundwater level fluctuations in a temperate-cold climate transition zone
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 2589-9155. ; 8
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In cold (i.e. boreal, subarctic, snowy) climate zones, dynamic groundwater storage is greatly affected by the timing and amount of snowmelt. With global warming, cold climates in the northern hemisphere will transition to temperate. As temperatures rise, the dominant type of precipitation will change from snow to rain in winter. Further, the growing season is prolonged. This has a direct impact on the aquifer recharge pattern. However, little is known about the effect of changing annual recharge regimes on groundwater storage. The present work deduces the impact of shifting climate zones on groundwater storage by evaluating the effect of climate seasonality on intra-annual hydraulic head fluctuations. The work compares intra-annual hydraulic head fluctuations in a temperate-cold climate transition zone (Fennoscandia) from two different periods (1980–1989, 2001–2010). This is done by associating rising vs. declining hydraulic heads with hydrometeorology. Due to the northwards migration of the temperate climate zone, there is a shift in seasonality between the two periods. This has a negative impact on groundwater levels, which are significantly lower in 2001–2010, particularly near the climate transition zone. The results demonstrate that increasing temperatures in cold climate regions may change the seasonality of groundwater recharge, by altering the main recharge period from being snowmelt-dominated (spring) to rain-dominated (winter). Additionally, this is connected to the duration of the growing season, which impedes groundwater recharge. The coupled effect of this on groundwater in the study area has led to a significant decrease in groundwater storage.
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| 9. |
- Chen, Aifang, 1990, et al.
(författare)
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Flood impact on Mainland Southeast Asia between 1985 and 2018 — The role of tropical cyclones
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Wiley. - 1753-318X. ; 13:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Floods are disastrous natural hazards accused of human live losses. As a flood‐prone area, Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has often been hit by floods, resulting in the highest fatality in the world. Despite the destructive flood impacts, how has flood occurrence changed over the past decades, and to what extent did floods affect the MSEA are not yet clear. Using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory large flood data archive, we aim to assess the trend of flood occurrence in the MSEA in 1985–2018, and quantify the associated impacts on humans. Particularly, the contribution of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall induced floods (TCFloods) is quantified, because of the frequent TC landfalls. Results show that (a) occurrence and maximum magnitude of floods by all causes (ALLFloods) significantly increased (p <.01), but not for TCFloods; (b) On average, TCFloods accounted for 24.6% occurrence of ALLFloods; (c) TCFloods caused higher mortality and displacement rate than ALLFloods did. As low flood protection standards in Cambodia and Myanmar is considered a reason for high flood‐induced mortalities, building higher flood protection standards should be taken as a priority for mitigating potential flood impacts. With quantifying flood occurrence and impacts, this study offers scientific understandings for better flood risk management.
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| 10. |
- Ehlers, Todd A., et al.
(författare)
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Past, present, and future geo-biosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau and implications for permafrost
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth-Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-8252. ; 234
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and geosphere are most active in the critical zone, a region extending from the tops of trees to the top of unweathered bedrock. Changes in one or more of these spheres can result in a cascade of changes throughout the system in ways that are often poorly understood. Here we investigate how past and present climate change have impacted permafrost, hydrology, and ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau. We do this by compiling existing climate, hydrologic, cryosphere, biosphere, and geologic studies documenting change over decadal to glacial-interglacial timescales and longer. Our emphasis is on showing present-day trends in environmental change and how plateau ecosystems have largely flourished under warmer and wetter periods in the geologic past. We identify two future pathways that could lead to either a favorable greening or unfavorable degradation and desiccation of plateau ecosystems. Both paths are plausible given the available evidence. We contend that the key to which pathway future generations experience lies in what, if any, human intervention measures are implemented. We conclude with suggested management strategies that can be implemented to facilitate a future greening of the Tibetan Plateau.
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| 11. |
- Giese, Markus, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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An approximation of inner boundary conditions for wells intersecting highly conductive structures
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ground Water. - : Wiley. - 0017-467X. ; 58:4, s. 611-621
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inner boundary conditions describe the interaction of groundwater wells with the surrounding aquifer during pumping and are associated with well‐skin damage that limits water production and water derived from wellbore storage. Pumping test evaluations of wells during immediate and early‐time flow require assignment of inner boundary conditions. Originally, these concepts were developed for vertical well screens, and later transferred to wellbores intersecting highly conductive structures, such as preferential flow zones in fractured and karstic systems. Conceptual models for pumping test analysis in complex bedrock geology are often simplified. Classic analytical solutions generally lump or ignore conditions that limit or enhance well productivity along the well screen at the onset of pumping. Numerical solutions can represent well drawdowns in complex geological settings, such as karst systems, more precisely than many analytical solutions by accounting for additional physical processes and avoiding assumptions and simplifications. Suitable numerical tools for flow simulations in karst are discrete pipe‐continuum models that account for various physical processes such as the transient hydraulics of wellbores intersecting highly conductive structures during pumping.
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| 12. |
- Giese, Markus, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Review: Saltwater intrusion in fractured crystalline bedrock
- 2021
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Ingår i: Hydrogeology Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1431-2174 .- 1435-0157. ; 29, s. 2313-2328
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- During the past few years, the number of regional and national assessments of groundwater quality in regard to saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers has increased steadily. However, most of the international literature on saltwater intrusion is focused on coastal plains with aquifers in unconsolidated material. Case studies, modelling approaches and parameter studies dealing with saltwater intrusion in those systems are abundant. While the hydrogeology of fractured rock has been intensively studied with both modelling approaches and parameter studies—mainly in relation to deep-laying fractured crystalline bedrock as potential waste repositories—case studies on saltwater intrusion in shallow fractured rocks are still an exception. This review summarizes the actual knowledge on saltwater intrusion in fractured crystalline rock. In combination with short overviews of the processes of saltwater intrusion, flow in fractured systems and the genesis of these systems, the review highlights the importance of the fracture systems and its specific characteristics. Fracture properties are a direct consequence of the geological history as well as the current situation of the coastal area. A holistic assessment of water quality in coastal areas hosting fractured crystalline bedrock therefore requires the combination of different approaches in order to investigate the impact of saltwater intrusion through the fractured system.
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| 13. |
- Giese, Markus, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Turbulent and Laminar Flow in Karst Conduits Under Unsteady Flow Conditions: Interpretation of Pumping Tests by Discrete Conduit-Continuum Modeling
- 2018
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Ingår i: Water Resources Research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 54:3, s. 1918-1933
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Due to the duality in terms of (1) the groundwater flow field and (2) the discharge conditions, flow patterns of karst aquifer systems are complex. Estimated aquifer parameters may differ by several orders of magnitude from local (borehole) to regional (catchment) scale because of the large contrast in hydraulic parameters between matrix and conduit, their heterogeneity and anisotropy. One approach to deal with the scale effect problem in the estimation of hydraulic parameters of karst aquifers is the application of large-scale experiments such as long-term high-abstraction conduit pumping tests, stimulating measurable groundwater drawdown in both, the karst conduit system as well as the fractured matrix. The numerical discrete conduit-continuum modeling approach MODFLOW-2005 Conduit Flow Process Mode 1 (CFPM1) is employed to simulate laminar and nonlaminar conduit flow, induced by large-scale experiments, in combination with Darcian matrix flow. Effects of large-scale experiments were simulated for idealized settings. Subsequently, diagnostic plots and analyses of different fluxes are applied to interpret differences in the simulated conduit drawdown and general flow patterns. The main focus is set on the question to which extent different conduit flow regimes will affect the drawdown in conduit and matrix depending on the hydraulic properties of the conduit system, i.e., conduit diameter and relative roughness. In this context, CFPM1 is applied to investigate the importance of considering turbulent conditions for the simulation of karst conduit flow. This work quantifies the relative error that results from assuming laminar conduit flow for the interpretation of a synthetic large-scale pumping test in karst.
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| 14. |
- Haaf, Ezra, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Data-driven Estimation of Groundwater Level Time-Series Using Comparative Regional Analysis
- 2022
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A new method is presented to efficiently estimate daily groundwater level time series at unmonitored sites by linking groundwater dynamics to local hydrogeological system controls. The presented approach is based on the concept of comparative regional analysis, an approach widely used in surface water hydrology, but uncommon in hydrogeology. The method uses regression analysis to estimate cumulative frequency distributions of groundwater levels (groundwater head duration curves (HDC)) at unmonitored locations using physiographic and climatic site descriptors. The HDC is then used to construct a groundwater hydrograph using time series from distance-weighted neighboring monitored (donor) locations. For estimating times series at unmonitored sites, in essence, spatio-temporal interpolation, stepwise multiple linear regression, extreme gradient boosting, and nearest neighbors are compared. The methods were applied to ten-year daily groundwater level time series at 157 sites in alluvial unconfined aquifers in Southern Germany. Models of HDCs were physically plausible and showed that physiographic and climatic controls on groundwater level fluctuations are nonlinear and dynamic, varying in significance from “wet” to “dry” aquifer conditions. Extreme gradient boosting yielded a significantly higher predictive skill than nearest neighbor and multiple linear regression. However, donor site selection is of key importance. The study presents a novel approach for regionalization and infilling of groundwater level time series that also aids conceptual understanding of controls on groundwater dynamics, both central tasks for water resources managers.
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| 15. |
- Karmakar, Shyamal, et al.
(författare)
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Numerical Benchmark Studies on Flow and Solute Transport in Geological Reservoirs
- 2022
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Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4441. ; 14:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Predicting and characterising groundwater flow and solute transport in engineering and hydrogeological applications, such as dimensioning tracer experiments, rely primarily on numerical modelling techniques. During software selection for numerical modelling, the accuracy of the results, financial costs of the simulation software, and computational resources should be considered. This study evaluates numerical modelling approaches and outlines the advantages and disadvantages of several simulators in terms of predictability, temporal control, and computational efficiency conducted in a single user and single computational resource set-up. A set of well-established flow and transport modelling simulators, such as MODFLOW/MT3DMS, FEFLOW, COMSOL Multiphysics, and DuMu(X) were tested and compared. These numerical simulators are based on three numerical discretisation schemes, i.e., finite difference (FD), finite element (FE), and finite volume (FV). The influence of dispersivity, potentially an artefact of numerical modelling (numerical dispersion), was investigated in parametric studies, and results are compared with analytical solutions. At the same time, relative errors were assessed for a complex field scale example. This comparative study reveals that the FE-based simulators COMSOL and FEFLOW show higher accuracy for a specific range of dispersivities under forced gradient conditions than DuMu(X) and MODFLOW/MT3DMS. FEFLOW performs better than COMSOL in regard to computational time both in single-core and multi-core computing. Overall computational time is lowest for the FD-based simulator MODFLOW/MT3DMS while the number of mesh elements is low (here < 12,800 elements). However, for finer discretisation, FE software FEFLOW performs faster.
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| 16. |
- Lindgren, Amanda, et al.
(författare)
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Acid sulfate soils and their impact on surface water quality on the Swedish west coast
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-5818. ; 40
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Study region: Halland county, located on the Swedish west coast, with a special focus on the area around Ramsjö canal (Falkenberg municipality). Study focus: This study contributes to the understanding of the development of active acid sulfate soils and environmental consequences of leaching from these soils in an area without previous investigations. Samples taken from different soil profiles in an agricultural area and water samples from the agricultural drainage system were analysed in pH, electrical conductivity, and metal concentrations. To evaluate the on-site situation, the results of the soils sample analysis were compared to the national soil classification system and the water samples to areas in northern Europe affected by acid sulfate soils. New hydrological insights for the region: The results prove the existence of active acid sulfate soils in a coastal area in Halland. In the study region, acid sulfate soils were discovered in an agricultural area of drained wetland and peatland. Water samples taken from the drainage system and a man-made canal flowing into Kattegat Sea have low pH combined with high electrical conductivity and increased metal concentrations. This is a direct consequence of intensive leaching from the discovered acid sulfate soils in that area. Therefore, this is the first case study proofing the existence of acid sulfate soils and highlighting their environmental impact on surface water quality on the Swedish west coast (i.e. outside the Baltic Basin).
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| 17. |
- Nygren, Michelle, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring groundwater drought responsiveness in lowland post‑glacial environments
- 2022
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Ingår i: Hydrogeology Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1431-2174 .- 1435-0157. ; 30, s. 1937-1961
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Groundwater drought response to meteorological forcing depends on initial hydrological conditions. This makes it difficult to characterise groundwater droughts and identify the drought vulnerability of aquifers. The objective is to increase the understanding of groundwater memory and response to meteorological forcing in lowland post-glacial environments. Eighty-one groundwater hydrographs are analysed, using the standardised groundwater level index (SGI) and the precipitation index. Memory and response times are assessed using auto- and cross-correlation functions. Response time is estimated by comparing two approaches: (1) the traditional use of the maximum cross-correlation, and (2) the alternative use of the cross-correlation slope. Results are interpreted for different hydrogeological settings. The analysis showed that sand aquifers have the longest memory and response times, particularly in confined settings where the memory could be over 4 years. Silts and tills have relatively short memories and response times, at less than 1 year, though median values for silt are higher than for unconfined sand aquifers. In this study, estimating response time using the correlation slope is superior at capturing the initial response time of groundwater to precipitation. However, the results showed that groundwater anomalies in lowland post-glacial environments are sometimes more influenced by climate teleconnections than concurrent forcing. This emphasises the need for a holistic approach for the characterisation and projection of groundwater drought, as it develops in simultaneous response to meteorological forcing at different timescales.
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| 18. |
- Nygren, Michelle, et al.
(författare)
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Recent trends in hydroclimate and groundwater levels in a region with seasonal frost cover
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694. ; 602
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In cold climate, the main annual recharge event is spring snowmelt. Projections of groundwater storage hence depend on winter hydroclimate. Winter recharge is a factor of rain, melt and ground frost. Increases in winter rain and melt have already been observed. However, due to complex processes involved in ground frost formation and its natural patchy coverage, the effect of ground frost on recharge is poorly understood. The objective of the study is to improve the understanding of the connection between groundwater storage and hydroclimate in Sweden and Finland, a region with temperate and cold climate, from a seasonal frost cover perspective. In the study, annual, frost-free season and frost season temperature and precipitation trends in the climate regions are compared between one global and two regional reanalysis datasets. Effective precipitation and wet day frequency trends between 1980 and 2010 are compared to groundwater level trends for the same period. Trends are calculated using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope. The results show that the region is generally experiencing warming and increased precipitation. These trends are strongest in the frost season. Further, the global dataset systematically underestimates median temperatures and precipitation compared to the regional datasets. Effective precipitation trends are generally weak, and indicate wetting in the frost season and drying in the frost-free season. Wet day frequency trends are decreasing significantly on the regional scale in Finland, but with nearly no trends in Sweden. Groundwater levels in southern Finland and southeastern Sweden are declining significantly, while groundwater levels in southwestern Sweden are significantly rising. The results indicate that groundwater trends in southern Finland are linked to wet day frequency and effective precipitation trends in the frost-free season, and that trends in the frost season have no impact on annual groundwater level trends. In southern Sweden, groundwater level trends appear linked to annual and frost-free season trends in effective precipitation, though insignificantly. These trends may be explained by century-scale trends in precipitation drought indices identified by previous studies.
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| 19. |
- Rudolph, Max Gustav, et al.
(författare)
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A data-driven approach for modelling karst spring discharge using transfer function noise models
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Earth Sciences. - 1866-6280 .- 1866-6299. ; 82
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Karst aquifers are important sources of fresh water on a global scale. The hydrological modelling of karst spring discharge, however, still poses a challenge. In this study we apply a transfer function noise (TFN) model in combination with a bucket-type recharge model to simulate karst spring discharge. The application of the noise model for the residual series has the advantage that it is more consistent with assumptions for optimization such as homoscedasticity and independence. In an earlier hydrological modeling study, named Karst Modeling Challenge (KMC; Jeannin et al., J Hydrol 600:126–508, 2021), several modelling approaches were compared for the Milandre Karst System in Switzerland. This serves as a benchmark and we apply the TFN model to KMC data, subsequently comparing the results to other models. Using different data-model-combinations, the most promising data-model-combination is identified in a three-step least-squares calibration. To quantify uncertainty, the Bayesian approach of Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is subsequently used with uniform priors for the previously identified best data-model combination. The MCMC maximum likelihood solution is used to simulate spring discharge for a previously unseen testing period, indicating a superior performance compared to all other models in the KMC. It is found that the model gives a physically feasible representation of the system, which is supported by field measurements. While the TFN model simulated rising limbs and flood recession especially well, medium and baseflow conditions were not represented as accurately. The TFN approach poses a well-performing data-driven alternative to other approaches that should be considered in future studies.
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