| 1. |
- Hart, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Joint Production of Food and Wildlife: Uniform Measures or Nature Oases?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environmental and Resource Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0924-6460 .- 1573-1502. ; 59:2, s. 187-205
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intensive agriculture is often bad for wildlife. Does this imply that a goal to boost wildlife on agricultural land is best met through a general reduction in intensity? We argue that such an approach may not be optimal, since cost functions for provision of wildlife on agricultural land may be non-convex, due to fixed costs associated with such provision. This implies that, even when farms are identical, it may be preferable to split them into groups of high providers and low providers. We test our hypothesis in a study of the optimal management of mown grasslands in southern Sweden, where the two products are silage and successful reproduction of ground-nesting birds, and the variable controlled by the farmer is the date of the first mowing. We show that the optimal solution is likely to involve some farmers maintaining profit-maximizing practices while other-identical-farmers delay their first mowing significantly. The superiority of such split solutions may have major implications for agricultural policy.
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| 2. |
- Hart, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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The elephant in Hotelling's room
- 2011
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 39:12, s. 7834-7838
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper questions the assumption, commonly used in theoretical and policy research, that scarcity rents make up a large proportion of market prices for oil and coal. We show that the empirical literature, simple calculations of historical and future scarcity rent shares, and possible theoretical explanations all imply the same overall conclusions: that scarcity rents seem to have been marginal or non-existent historically; that they almost certainly do not dominate fossil resource prices today; and that there will be other factors shaping the prices in the upcoming decades. We therefore argue that using the scarcity rent as the main or only basis for policy or for explaining empirical outcomes is ill-advised.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Berry, Carl, 1994-
(författare)
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Income and Fuel Price Elasticities of Car Use
- 2022
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Understanding how car travel and ownership respond to income and fuel prices, and how that response varies between households is crucial for car use policies and forecasts. This thesis, consisting of two papers, aims to investigate this by estimating the intemporal income and fuel price elasticities of car use using micro registry panel data on all Swedish households from 1998 to 2018. In Paper I, the income and fuel price elasticities of vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) is estimated for all Swedish households using a linear fixed effects model. In order to investigate how different groups respond, the elasticities are estimated by income group and municipality type. The effect of income and fuel prices on VKT is largest in the middle of the income distribution but is relatively stable across municipality types. The effect of fuel prices on VKT is largest in densely populated municipalities compared to rural municipalities. Moreover, it is shown that the income elasticity is underestimated if income variable is misspecified. Paper II utilises a discrete-continuous model accounting for the effect of income and fuel prices on car ownership. It is shown that income impacts car ownership and VKT conditional on car ownership of similar magnitude, while fuel prices primarily impact VKT conditional on car ownership. Furthermore, we also estimate the model on six partially overlapping sample periods and find that the income elasticity has decreased over time, while the absolute fuel price elasticity increased up until the early 2010s and decreased thereafter.
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| 5. |
- Cuni-Sanchez, Aida, et al.
(författare)
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High aboveground carbon stock of African tropical montane forests
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 596:7873, s. 536-542
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tropical forests store 40–50per cent of terrestrial vegetation carbon. However, spatial variations in aboveground live tree biomass carbon (AGC) stocks remain poorly understood, in particular in tropical montane forests. Owing to climatic and soil changes with increasing elevation, AGC stocks are lower in tropical montane forests compared with lowland forests. Here we assemble and analyse a dataset of structurally intact old-growth forests (AfriMont) spanning 44 montane sites in 12 African countries. We find that montane sites in the AfriMont plot network have a mean AGC stock of 149.4megagrams of carbon per hectare (95% confidence interval 137.1–164.2), which is comparable to lowland forests in the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network4 and about 70per cent and 32per cent higher than averages from plot networks in montane and lowland forests in the Neotropics, respectively. Notably, our results are two-thirds higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change default values for these forests in Africa8. We find that the low stem density and high abundance of large trees of African lowland forests is mirrored in the montane forests sampled. This carbon store is endangered: we estimate that 0.8 million hectares of old-growth African montane forest have been lost since 2000. We provide country-specific montane forest AGC stock estimates modelled from our plot network to helpto guide forest conservation and reforestation interventions. Our findings highlight the need for conserving these biodiverse and carbon-rich ecosystems.
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| 6. |
- Dixon-Suen, Suzanne C, et al.
(författare)
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Physical activity, sedentary time and breast cancer risk : a Mendelian randomisation study
- 2022
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Ingår i: British Journal of Sports Medicine. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0306-3674 .- 1473-0480. ; 56:20, s. 1157-1170
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: Physical inactivity and sedentary behaviour are associated with higher breast cancer risk in observational studies, but ascribing causality is difficult. Mendelian randomisation (MR) assesses causality by simulating randomised trial groups using genotype. We assessed whether lifelong physical activity or sedentary time, assessed using genotype, may be causally associated with breast cancer risk overall, pre/post-menopause, and by case-groups defined by tumour characteristics.METHODS: We performed two-sample inverse-variance-weighted MR using individual-level Breast Cancer Association Consortium case-control data from 130 957 European-ancestry women (69 838 invasive cases), and published UK Biobank data (n=91 105-377 234). Genetic instruments were single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated in UK Biobank with wrist-worn accelerometer-measured overall physical activity (nsnps=5) or sedentary time (nsnps=6), or accelerometer-measured (nsnps=1) or self-reported (nsnps=5) vigorous physical activity.RESULTS: Greater genetically-predicted overall activity was associated with lower breast cancer overall risk (OR=0.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42 to 0.83 per-standard deviation (SD;~8 milligravities acceleration)) and for most case-groups. Genetically-predicted vigorous activity was associated with lower risk of pre/perimenopausal breast cancer (OR=0.62; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.87,≥3 vs. 0 self-reported days/week), with consistent estimates for most case-groups. Greater genetically-predicted sedentary time was associated with higher hormone-receptor-negative tumour risk (OR=1.77; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.92 per-SD (~7% time spent sedentary)), with elevated estimates for most case-groups. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses examining pleiotropy (including weighted-median-MR, MR-Egger).CONCLUSION: Our study provides strong evidence that greater overall physical activity, greater vigorous activity, and lower sedentary time are likely to reduce breast cancer risk. More widespread adoption of active lifestyles may reduce the burden from the most common cancer in women.
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| 7. |
- Downey, Harriet, et al.
(författare)
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Training future generations to deliver evidence-based conservation and ecosystem management
- 2021
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Ingår i: Ecological Solutions and Evidence. - : Wiley. - 2688-8319. ; 2:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. To be effective, the next generation of conservation practitioners and managers need to be critical thinkers with a deep understanding of how to make evidence-based decisions and of the value of evidence synthesis.2. If, as educators, we do not make these priorities a core part of what we teach, we are failing to prepare our students to make an effective contribution to conservation practice.3. To help overcome this problem we have created open access online teaching materials in multiple languages that are stored in Applied Ecology Resources. So far, 117 educators from 23 countries have acknowledged the importance of this and are already teaching or about to teach skills in appraising or using evidence in conservation decision-making. This includes 145 undergraduate, postgraduate or professional development courses.4. We call for wider teaching of the tools and skills that facilitate evidence-based conservation and also suggest that providing online teaching materials in multiple languages could be beneficial for improving global understanding of other subject areas.
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| 8. |
- Elsik, Christine G., et al.
(författare)
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The Genome Sequence of Taurine Cattle : A Window to Ruminant Biology and Evolution
- 2009
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 324:5926, s. 522-528
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To understand the biology and evolution of ruminants, the cattle genome was sequenced to about sevenfold coverage. The cattle genome contains a minimum of 22,000 genes, with a core set of 14,345 orthologs shared among seven mammalian species of which 1217 are absent or undetected in noneutherian (marsupial or monotreme) genomes. Cattle-specific evolutionary breakpoint regions in chromosomes have a higher density of segmental duplications, enrichment of repetitive elements, and species-specific variations in genes associated with lactation and immune responsiveness. Genes involved in metabolism are generally highly conserved, although five metabolic genes are deleted or extensively diverged from their human orthologs. The cattle genome sequence thus provides a resource for understanding mammalian evolution and accelerating livestock genetic improvement for milk and meat production.
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| 9. |
- Hamdi, Yosr, et al.
(författare)
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Association of breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers with genetic variants showing differential allelic expression : identification of a modifier of breast cancer risk at locus 11q22.3
- 2017
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Ingår i: Breast Cancer Research and Treatment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0167-6806 .- 1573-7217. ; 161:1, s. 117-134
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: Cis-acting regulatory SNPs resulting in differential allelic expression (DAE) may, in part, explain the underlying phenotypic variation associated with many complex diseases. To investigate whether common variants associated with DAE were involved in breast cancer susceptibility among BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, a list of 175 genes was developed based of their involvement in cancer-related pathways. Methods: Using data from a genome-wide map of SNPs associated with allelic expression, we assessed the association of ~320 SNPs located in the vicinity of these genes with breast and ovarian cancer risks in 15,252 BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 mutation carriers ascertained from 54 studies participating in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2. Results: We identified a region on 11q22.3 that is significantly associated with breast cancer risk in BRCA1 mutation carriers (most significant SNP rs228595 p = 7 × 10−6). This association was absent in BRCA2 carriers (p = 0.57). The 11q22.3 region notably encompasses genes such as ACAT1, NPAT, and ATM. Expression quantitative trait loci associations were observed in both normal breast and tumors across this region, namely for ACAT1, ATM, and other genes. In silico analysis revealed some overlap between top risk-associated SNPs and relevant biological features in mammary cell data, which suggests potential functional significance. Conclusion: We identified 11q22.3 as a new modifier locus in BRCA1 carriers. Replication in larger studies using estrogen receptor (ER)-negative or triple-negative (i.e., ER-, progesterone receptor-, and HER2-negative) cases could therefore be helpful to confirm the association of this locus with breast cancer risk.
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| 10. |
- Hart, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Konsumtionsskatters roll i långsiktig miljöpolitik : Analyser av styrmedel och konsumtion
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Konsumtion är inte den direkta orsaken till försämrad miljökvalitet och förlorad biodiversitet, det är förorenande utsläpp och förstöring av livsmiljöer som är orsaken. Därför rekommenderar nationalekonomer att styrmedel helst bör riktas direkt mot förorenande utsläpp och förstöring av livsmiljöer snarare än mot konsumtionsvaror: en skatt per flygstol må leda till färre flyg och lägre utsläpp, men den ger inte flygbolagen incitament att flyga bränslesnålare eller byta till utsläppsfri teknik som elflyg; en skatt på utsläpp täcker alla dessa baser. Dock finns flera skäl varför vi trots allt bör koppla ihop styrmedel och konsumtion, av vilka vi fokuserar på två. Det första skälet är att det i många fall finns hinder för att prissätta föroreningsutsläpp – till exempel, för att beskatta utsläpp från internationellt flyg krävs överenskommelser som hittills har visat sig vara ouppnåeliga – och därmed måste andra styrmedel undersökas, inklusive styrmedel riktade specifikt mot konsumenter. Det andra skälet är att det finns problem som är specifika för konsumtionsledet som behöver korrigeras. Dessa problem, som kallas för konsumtionsexternaliteter, uppstår när konsumentens egen nytta påverkas av att hen ser vad andra konsumerar, samt av att andra ser hens konsumtion. Om konsumtion av iögonfallande varor ger status kan konsumtionen trissas upp i ett nollsummespel utan vinnare, men med en oskyldig förlorare: miljön. Vi analyserar styrmedel och konsumtion i dessa två fall, och drar fyra huvudsakliga slutsatser:En övergång till ren teknik är den viktigaste mekanismen för att få ned utsläpp, och det bästa styrmedlet för att uppnå en sådan övergång är prissättning av utsläpp genom till exempel utsläppsskatter.Konsumtionsskatter ger inga incitament till sådana övergångar, men under vissa omständigheter kan andra styrmedel – till exempel förbud mot smutsiga teknologival – uppnå samma effekt som prissättning av utsläpp.När en övergång till ren teknik ändå inte är aktuell kan konsumtionsskatter i linje med miljöskadorna vara ett habilt alternativ till prissättning av utsläpp för att minska utsläpp på ett samhällseffektivt sätt.Om konsumenters val av miljöskadliga produkter – till exempel passagerarflyg – i hög grad påverkas av sociala faktorer som konkurrens om status kan mycket kraftfullare konsumtionsinriktade styrmedel vara motiverade.Slutsatserna stöds av en makroekonomisk analys, en mikroekonometrisk analys, samt en analys av konsumtionsexternaliteter. Vår makroekonomiska analys visar att byten från smutsig till ren teknik har varit mycket viktigare än ändringar i konsumtionsmönster när förorenande utsläpp har minskat; utsläpp av freoner minskade inte för att vi slutade använda kylskåp. Och när ett rent alternativ finns är det bara en fråga om hur kraftiga incitamenten måste vara innan det smutsiga alternativet byts ut. Men när inget rent alternativ finns, eller merkostnaden av det rena alternativet är så hög att ett teknikskifte inte kan motiveras av dagens miljöskador, är situationen mer komplicerad; i detta fall, om en utsläppsskatt inte är genomförbar kan en konsumtionsskatt vara ett bra alternativ för att ta oss närmare den teoretiskt optimala (först-bäst) lösningen. Två exempel där rena alternativ inte är tillgängliga till ett rimligt pris är internationellt passagerarflyg och nötkött; vi studerar just flyget i detalj.Vår mikroekonometriska analys av efterfrågan för passagerarflyg visar att effekten av prisökningar på efterfrågad kvantitet är måttliga, vilket tyder på att en konsumtionsskatt, om den sätts under eller lika med miljöskadan som varje flyg orsakar, aldrig kommer kunna leda till minskningar i flygets klimatpåverkan som är i linje med Sveriges mål för totala utsläpp; snarare skulle den kunna dämpa den långsiktigt ökande trenden för utsläpp som orsakas av ökande inkomster i det svenska samhället. Dessa resultat följer av en hög uppskattad inkomstelasticitet av efterfrågan för flygresor (3,0) samt en låg priselasticitet av efterfrågan för flyg (−0,76). Dock verkar den faktiska effekten av flygskatten vara betydligt större än effekten som förväntas givet den uppmätta priselasticiteten; införandet av flygskatten har sammanfallit med en betydande minskning i utrikesflyg från Sverige i jämförelse med andra liknande länder. Eftersom oväntat stora effekter av miljöskatter också har uppmätts i andra liknande fall är en möjlig förklaring att sådana skatter skickar signaler till hushåll och företag utöver deras direkta effekter på priser.Att hushållens konsumtionsbeslut kan påverkas av till synes små och icke-monetära förändringar är ett bevis på att nyttofunktionen är mer komplex än standardmodellen inom nationalekonomi medger, vilket också ökar relevansen av konsumtionsinriktade styrmedel. Enligt konventionell nationalekonomisk teori ger konsumtionsvaror nytta, och man kan härleda nyttofunktionen från observerade kvantiteter och priser; att vi väljer att flyga allt mer när vår inkomst ökar är för att flygresor ger oss nytta. Dock kan och bör detta ifrågasättas. Blir vi verkligen lyckligare av allt arbete och konsumtion, eller handlar det om en kapplöpning om status? Vi visar att om våra val delvis drivs av en jakt på status, och produktiviteten ökar stadigt, tar denna jakt över allt mer som motivationen bakom våra beslut om arbetskraftsutbud och konsumtionsval. Detta leder till ett överutbud av arbetskraft och en sneddrivning av konsumtion mot iögonfallande varor såsom internationellt flyg, stora bostäder och kraftfulla bilar. Modellen med konsumtionsexternaliteter kan hjälpa oss att förklara varför den långsiktiga trenden med färre arbetstimmar per år och mer fritid har stannat av, samtidigt som vår konsumtion riktas mot energi- och resursintensiva varor. Dessutom kan den motivera kraftfulla policy-åtgärder för att styra om våra val för att ge högre nytta och bättre miljö.
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| 11. |
- Hinkelmann, Stefan, 1992-
(författare)
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On the Macroeconomics of the Energy Transition
- 2024
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Climate Policies and Input Substitution over TimeThis paper investigates quantitatively how the impact of climate policies such as a carbon tax differs over the short and long run in the macroeconomy. We document limited possibilities to switch from fossil fuels to green alternatives over short time horizons. Over more extended periods, however, this substitutability increases significantly. The same pattern holds for aggregate energy in production. We then build a quantitative growth model that accounts for these patterns through a technology-choice channel. We find that, in order to achieve similar long-run emission targets, carbon taxes should be increased by about 10% permanently compared to models that focus on the long run only.Electrification of U.S. Aggregate Production: Theory and EvidenceIn this paper, I scrutinize the process of electrification, defined as an increase in the share of electricity in the energy bundle. I first document trends and facts regarding the use of fossil fuels and electricity as end-use energy types in production in the U.S. I provide evidence that these two energy types are strong complements in the short- but more substitutable in the long run. In particular, I estimate the short-run elasticity of substitution between these two energy inputs to be 0.06 and argue for a Cobb-Douglas relationship and, thus, a unitary elasticity of substitution in the long run. I then build a model that can quantitatively reproduce these facts through a directed technological change mechanism. Crucially, the main driver of electrification is the relative improvement of fossil fuel use efficiency vis-à-vis electricity's.(Be-)Coming Clean: A Model of the U.S. Energy TransitionThis paper develops a quantitative framework of the energy transition and shows how the decarbonization of the economy hinges on three main mechanisms endogenous to the model: (i) developments in energy efficiency determining energy use in a growing economy; (ii) electrification of the production process driven by directed technical change; and (iii) capacity building for green electricity production. I then use the model to evaluate a net zero by 2050-policy vis-à-vis business as usual. I find that the energy transition happens in a laissez-faire scenario but has to be sped up if the policy target is to be fulfilled. In particular, I find that the required carbon tax is initially around $250 per ton CO2, and output and consumption growth are transitionally 0.2-0.3 percentage points lower under environmental policy.Green Subsidies, the Energy Transition, and Implications of the Inflation Reduction ActThis paper studies the implications of green subsidies on the economy and the energy transition. I include a technology and a learning-by-doing (LBD) externality in Chapter 3’s framework. The internalization of these inefficiencies requires green subsidies, which have important implications for the energy transition. In particular, fossil fuel use in the economy will reduce by 38% by the end of the 2060s compared to laissez-faire. Additionally, the two externalities interact. Internalizing the LBD mechanism reduces the technology externality, while internalizing the technology shift exacerbates the implications of unaccounted-for LBD. Investigating the IRA shows that it is leveraging the right externality with an imperfect instrument: ITCs do not perfectly internalize the LBD externality and lead to fossil fuel use rebounding after their expiration.
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| 12. |
- Jakobsson, Kristofer, 1982-
(författare)
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Modeling Oil Exploration and Production : Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches
- 2010
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Energy is essential to the functioning of society, and oil is the single largest commercial energy source. Some analysts have concluded that the peak in oil production is soon about to happen on the global scale, while others disagree. Such incompatible views can persist because the issue of “peak oil” cuts through the established scientific disciplines. The question is: what characterizes the modeling approaches that are available today, and how can they be further developed to improve a trans-disciplinary understanding of oil depletion? The objective of this thesis is to present long-term scenarios of oil production (Paper I) using a resource-constrained model; and an agent-based model of the oil exploration process (Paper II). It is also an objective to assess the strengths, limitations, and future development potentials of resource-constrained modeling, analytical economic modeling, and agent-based modeling. Resource-constrained models are only suitable when the time frame is measured in decades, but they can give a rough indication of which production scenarios are reasonable given the size of the resource. However, the models are comprehensible, transparent and the only feasible long-term forecasting tools at present. It is certainly possible to distinguish between reasonable scenarios, based on historically observed parameter values, and unreasonable scenarios with parameter values obtained through flawed analogy. The economic subfield of optimal depletion theory is founded on the notion of rational economic agents, and there is a causal relation between decisions made at the micro-level and the macro-result. In terms of future improvements, however, the analytical form considerably restricts the versatility of the approach. Agent-based modeling makes it feasible to combine economically motivated agents with a physical environment. An example relating to oil exploration is given in Paper II, where it is shown that the exploratory activities of individual agents can yield a U-shaped exploration cost path. Agent-based modeling appears to have significant potential for future development, but it is still unclear whether it will be the most useful in policy evaluation or more generalized systems research.
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| 13. |
- Kanoni, Stavroula, et al.
(författare)
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Implicating genes, pleiotropy, and sexual dimorphism at blood lipid loci through multi-ancestry meta-analysis.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Genome biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1474-760X .- 1465-6906 .- 1474-7596. ; 23:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genetic variants within nearly 1000 loci are known to contribute to modulation of blood lipid levels. However, the biological pathways underlying these associations are frequently unknown, limiting understanding of these findings and hindering downstream translational efforts such as drug target discovery.To expand our understanding of the underlying biological pathways and mechanisms controlling blood lipid levels, we leverage a large multi-ancestry meta-analysis (N=1,654,960) of blood lipids to prioritize putative causal genes for 2286 lipid associations using six gene prediction approaches. Using phenome-wide association (PheWAS) scans, we identify relationships of genetically predicted lipid levels to other diseases and conditions. We confirm known pleiotropic associations with cardiovascular phenotypes and determine novel associations, notably with cholelithiasis risk. We perform sex-stratified GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels and show that 3-5% of autosomal lipid-associated loci demonstrate sex-biased effects. Finally, we report 21 novel lipid loci identified on the X chromosome. Many of the sex-biased autosomal and X chromosome lipid loci show pleiotropic associations with sex hormones, emphasizing the role of hormone regulation in lipid metabolism.Taken together, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms through which associated variants lead to altered lipid levels and potentially cardiovascular disease risk.
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| 14. |
- Kyriakopoulou, Efthymia, et al.
(författare)
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Towards zero emissions from Swedish urban transport : Report from the project ‘To buy or not to buy’
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this report we analyse how urban transport policies can help Sweden move towards its environmental goals – including a 70 percent reduction in domestic transport emissions from 2010 to 2030 – at the same time as it meets the overall goal of ensuring a socio-economically efficient and sustainable transport system for citizens and businesses throughout the country. Our contribution is that we combine theory from urban economics and economic geography with welfare economic analysis and an econometric study of the outcome of a specific policy. We begin by examining trends in urbanization and transport in Sweden, with a particular focus on the environmental damages associated with transport choices. We go on to discuss the theory of urban structure, especially its relevance to transport policy and pollution. Next we discuss transport policy and the environment in the light of transport trends and the theory of urban structure, and present a detailed study of the effects of the Gothenburg congestion charge. Finally we build on the data and the theory to analyse potential routes towards zero emissions from Swedish urban transport, both in the medium run (up to 2030) and in the very long term.Our analysis of urban development, transport and pollution shows that the road to zero transport emissions will be long, given the slow turnover of the car fleet and the fact that even in 2020 only around 10 percent of new cars were electric vehicles (EVs). In the absence of drastic measures to speed the retirement of fossil-powered vehicles, policies over the next 20 years will need to take account of a car fleet consisting of a mixture of fossil-powered and electric vehicles. Furthermore, while urban dwellers account for an increasingly large majority of emissions, policies must also account for the interests of rural people. This implies that policies are needed that explicitly target urban drivers, because the marginal damages of local emissions (such as NOx, particulates, and noise) are significantly higher in the urban context. This conclusion is further strengthened by the presence of traffic congestion in urban areas. Furthermore, urban workers have more options – as shown by the large and widening gap between car ownership per person in rural and urban areas, where rural people own more cars despite lower incomes – and thus are likely to react more strongly to policy. In order to understand urban transport decisions, and what policies are required to move towards a socio-economically efficient and sustainable transport system, we must understand the urbanization process itself. The formation of large, centralized cities is driven by the benefits to firms of being close to one another, but braked by the cost to households of transport to the centre, as well as the polluting effects of buses and private cars. The upshot is that cheaper and cleaner forms of transport encourage the growth of large, monocentric cities, i.e. cities in which firms are concentrated in the centre and households in the surrounding area. This favours firm productivity (as firms benefit from positive spillovers when they are located close to one another) and hence should be encouraged by planning policy. Furthermore, policies are needed to encourage clean and efficient transportation, and to deal with transport congestion.The historical direction of Swedish tax policy with respect to private transport can be summed up as follows: you are welcome to own a fossil-powered car, but please don’t use it. Fuel taxes are high whereas the annual road tax is modest, and counterbalanced for urban drivers by subsidized parking. More recently, policy has moved in the direction indicated by our theoretical analysis: a range of policies have been introduced to encourage purchase of low-emission cars, small steps have been taken towards raising the cost of parking towards market rates, and congestion charges have been introduced in Stockholm and Gothenburg. In order to learn more about how urban residents respond to policy changes, we study the effect of the Gothenburg congestion charge. We study household car ownership and driving decisions over time, comparing households in Gothenburg with those in Stockholm and Malmö during the period within which the Gothenburg congestion charge was introduced, finding that the charge led to a fall in car ownership by 0.4 percent, and a fall in the mileage of the car-owning households by 1.6 percent. A back-of-anenvelope calculation indicates that these results translate into very low elasticities: if the annual cost of owning and running a car increases by 1 percent, the rate of car ownership declines by around 0.07 percent, while if the marginal cost of running a car increases by 1 percent, driving distance decreases by around 0.15 percent. The key to achieving the 2030 climate target for the transport sector is at least as much about getting fossil cars off the road as it is about getting EVs onto the road. Given the much lower car ownership in cities than in rural areas, an obvious question is how we can go further in this direction. Of course it would help if urban car owners had to pay the true costs of parking their vehicles, and if fuel taxation were to a greater extent complemented by urban congestion charges (or other even more precisely targeted charges). However, the low sensitivity of urban Gothenburg’s car owners to the congestion charge suggests that the key reason for lower car ownership in cities is not higher costs but lower perceived benefits. It seems that the added value to the household of owning a car, and especially a second car, compared to the alternative – using other forms of transport, perhaps combined with renting – is lower in cities. If so, the key to pushing down car ownership should be to further increase the speed and convenience of alternative modes of transport relative to private cars, which would imply that we need a package of measures including higher priority for public transport and cycling, and lower priority for private cars. Since public transport and cycling can deliver more people to city centres more cheaply and cleanly than cars, this would also encourage the further development of monocentric cities, leading to more efficient labour markets and more productive firms. More research is needed on the optimal make-up of such a policy package.
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| 15. |
- Lindahl, Odd, et al.
(författare)
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Improving marine water quality by mussel farming: A profitable solution for Swedish society
- 2005
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Allen Press Inc.. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 34:2, s. 131-138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Eutrophication of coastal waters is a serious environmental problem with high costs for society globally. In eastern Skagerrak, reductions in eutrophication are planned through reduction of nitrogen inputs, but it is unclear how this can be achieved. One possible method is the cultivation of filter-feeding organisms, such as blue mussels, which remove nitrogen while generating seafood, fodder and agricultural fertilizer, thus recycling nutrients from sea to land. The expected effect of mussel farming on nitrogen cycling was modeled for the Gullmar Fjord on the Swedish west coast and it is shown that the net transport of nitrogen (sum of dissolved and particulate) at the fjord mouth was reduced by 20%. Existing commercial mussel farms already perform this service for free, but the benefits to society could be far greater. We suggest that rather than paying mussel farmers for their work that nutrient trading systems are introduced to improve coastal waters. In this context an alternative to nitrogen reduction in the sewage treatment plant in Lysekil community through mussel farming is presented. Accumulation of bio-toxins has been identified as the largest impediment to further expansion of commercial mussel farming in Sweden, but the problem seems to be manageable through new techniques and management strategies. On the basis of existing and potential regulations and payments, possible win-win solutions are suggested.
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Styrkarsdottir, Unnur, et al.
(författare)
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Severe osteoarthritis of the hand associates with common variants within the ALDH1A2 gene and with rare variants at 1p31.
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 46:5, s. 498-502
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis and is a major cause of pain and disability in the elderly. To search for sequence variants that confer risk of osteoarthritis of the hand, we carried out a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in subjects with severe hand osteoarthritis, using variants identified through the whole-genome sequencing of 2,230 Icelanders. We found two significantly associated loci in the Icelandic discovery set: at 15q22 (frequency of 50.7%, odds ratio (OR) = 1.51, P = 3.99 × 10(-10)) in the ALDH1A2 gene and at 1p31 (frequency of 0.02%, OR = 50.6, P = 9.8 × 10(-10)). Among the carriers of the variant at 1p31 is a family with several members in whom the risk allele segregates with osteoarthritis. The variants within the ALDH1A2 gene were confirmed in replication sets from The Netherlands and the UK, yielding an overall association of OR = 1.46 and P = 1.1 × 10(-11) (rs3204689).
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