| 1. |
- Trnka, Miroslav, et al.
(författare)
-
Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Climate Research (CR). - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0936-577X .- 1616-1572. ; 75, s. 241-260
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Addressing timely and relevant questions across amultitude of spatio-temporal scales,state-of-the-art interdisciplinary drought research will likely increase in importance under projectedclimate change. Given the complexity of the various direct and indirect causes and consequences of adrier world, scientific tasks need to be coordinated efficiently. Drought-related research endeavorsranging from individual projects to global initiatives therefore require prioritization. Here, wepresent 60 priority questions for optimizing future drought research. This topical catalogue reflectsthe experience of 65 scholars from 21 countries and almost 20 fields of research in both naturalsciences and the humanities. The set of drought-related questions primarily covers drought monitoring,impacts, forecasting, climatology, adaptation, as well as planning and policy. The questionshighlight the increasingly important role of remote sensing techniques in drought monitoring, importanceof drought forecasting and understanding the relationships between drought parametersand drought impacts, but also challenges of drought adaptation and preparedness policies.
|
|
| 2. |
- Alexander, Peter, et al.
(författare)
-
Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 23:2, s. 767-781
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
|
|
| 3. |
- Latka, Catharina, et al.
(författare)
-
The potential role of producer and consumer food policies in the EU to sustainable food and nutrition security
- 2018
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- EU sustainable food and nutrition security is no sure-fire success. The future ofthe agro-food system is uncertain and subject to different macro-level trends.Previous analysis revealed the role of food system drivers creating challenges andopportunities for dietary and environmental improvements under certain futureconstellations. However, these challenges and opportunities need to be addressed by policies to allow for actual improvements in the sustainabilityperformance of EU food systems, for people, planet and profit. In this deliverable,an assessment and pre-test of potential policy measures is carried out. The policyanalyses are contrasted to a ‘business-as-usual’ baseline scenario with currenttrends of food system drivers. We apply the SUSFANS modelling toolbox in orderto test relevant policy measures in four distinct aqua-agro-food policy sectors.Regarding health and nutrition of the EU population, we provide a ranking ofpotential dietary policies and interventions based on their effectiveness,implementation costs and restrictiveness for consumers and producers. Based onthis overview, options for health and nutrition policy are designed containing amixture of different policy instruments. These apply – in line with the allocationof policy responsibilities in the EU - at the level of individual member states andnot at the realms of an EU policy. In the context of the Common AgriculturalPolicy (CAP), we assess the impact of a livestock density restriction on EU Agricultural areas. Results indicate a reduction of soil nutrient surpluses (-9 to -13%) and of greenhouse gas emissions (-9%) at EU average and considerably stronger in the livestock density and over-fertilization hotspots. Trade openness restricts the impact on food consumption and dietary change of EU consumers. Three Common Fisheries Policies (CFP) are tested with the newly developed fish modules of GLOBIOM and CAPRI: Directing capture in EU waters to levels that keep fish stocks at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), or at the maximum economic yield (MEY), and the implementation of national aquaculture growth plans composed by EU member states. Our results show limited policy impacts due to the rlatively small size of the EU fish producing sector with some trade butlimited consumption changes. Finally, different storage policies are tested with the new short-term volatility module of GLOBIOM. The scenarios reveal that storage availability and intervention prices reduce price volatility caused by yield shocks. The assessments illustrate that individual, yet unaligned policy measures can already contribute significantly to reaching sustainable food and nutritionsecurity. On the way to the final foresight assessment extensions are require regarding a) metrics quantifiability, b) the harmonization of metrics computationapproaches, and c) smaller model improvements
|
|
| 4. |
- Leclere, David, et al.
(författare)
-
Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 585:7826, s. 551-556
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides(1,2). Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity(3); however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge(4). Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity(5). We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.
|
|
| 5. |
- Nordström, Eva-Maria, et al.
(författare)
-
Impacts of global climate change mitigation scenarios on forests and harvesting in Sweden
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Canadian Journal of Forest Research. - : Canadian Science Publishing. - 0045-5067 .- 1208-6037. ; 46:12, s. 1427-1438
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Under climate change, the importance of biomass resources is likely to increase and new approaches are needed to analyze future material and energy use of biomass globally and locally. Using Sweden as an example, we present an approach that combines global and national land-use and forest models to analyze impacts of climate change mitigation ambitions on forest management and harvesting in a specific country. National forest impact analyses in Sweden have traditionally focused on supply potential with little reference to international market developments. In this study, we use the global greenhouse gas concentration scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change to estimate global biomass demand and assess potential implications on harvesting and biodiversity in Sweden. The results show that the short-term demand for wood is close to the full harvesting potential in Sweden in all scenarios. Under high bioenergy demand, harvest levels are projected to stay high over a longer time and particularly impact the harvest levels of pulpwood. The area of old forest in the managed landscape may decrease. This study highlights the importance of global scenarios when discussing national-level analysis and pinpoints trade-offs that policy making in Sweden may need to tackle in the near future.
|
|
| 6. |
- Prestele, Reinhard, et al.
(författare)
-
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections : a global-scale model comparison
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 22:12, s. 3967-3983
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Zurek, Monika, et al.
(författare)
-
Assessing Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security of the EU Food System-An Integrated Approach
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 10:11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Steering the EU food system towards a sustainability transformation requires a vast and actionable knowledge base available to a range of public and private actors. Few have captured this complexity by assessing food systems from a multi-dimensional and multi-level perspective, which would include (1) nutrition and diet, environmental and economic outcomes together with social equity dimensions and (2) system interactions across country, EU and global scales. This paper addresses this gap in food systems research and science communication by providing an integrated analytical approach and new ways to communicate this complexity outside science. Based on a transdisciplinary science approach with continuous stakeholder input, the EU Horizon2020 project 'Metrics, Models and Foresight for European SUStainable Food And Nutrition Security' (SUSFANS) developed a five-step process: Creating a participatory space; designing a conceptual framework of the EU food system; developing food system performance metrics; designing a modelling toolbox and developing a visualization tool. The Sustainable Food and Nutrition-Visualizer, designed to communicate complex policy change-impacts and trade-off questions, enables an informed debate about trade-offs associated with options for change among food system actors as well as in the policy making arena. The discussion highlights points for further research related to indicator development, reach of assessment models, participatory processes and obstacles in science communication.
|
|
