| 1. |
- Bessa, Ricardo J., et al.
(författare)
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Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energies. - : MDPI AG. - 1996-1073. ; 10:9
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The reliability of system operations and smooth integration of wind energy into electricity markets has been strongly supported by years of improvement in weather and wind power forecasting systems. Deterministic forecasts are still predominant in utility practice although truly optimal decisions and risk hedging are only possible with the adoption of uncertainty forecasts. One of the main barriers for the industrial adoption of uncertainty forecasts is the lack of understanding of its information content (e.g., its physical and statistical modeling) and standardization of uncertainty forecast products, which frequently leads to mistrust towards uncertainty forecasts and their applicability in practice. This paper aims at improving this understanding by establishing a common terminology and reviewing the methods to determine, estimate, and communicate the uncertainty in weather and wind power forecasts. This conceptual analysis of the state of the art highlights that: (i) end-users should start to look at the forecast's properties in order to map different uncertainty representations to specific wind energy-related user requirements; (ii) a multidisciplinary team is required to foster the integration of stochastic methods in the industry sector. A set of recommendations for standardization and improved training of operators are provided along with examples of best practices.
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| 2. |
- DeCarolis, Joseph, et al.
(författare)
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Leveraging Open-Source Tools for Collaborative Macro-energy System Modeling Efforts
- 2020
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Ingår i: Joule. - : Elsevier BV. - 2542-4351. ; 4:12, s. 2523-2526
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The authors are founding team members of a new effort to develop an Open Energy Outlook for the United States. The effort aims to apply best practices of policy-focused energy system modeling, ensure transparency, build a networked community, and work toward a common purpose: examining possible US energy system futures to inform energy and climate policy efforts. Individual author biographies can be found on the project website: https://openenergyoutlook.org/. DeCarolis et al. articulate the benefits of forming collaborative teams with a wide array of disciplinary and domain expertise to conduct analysis with macro-energy system models. Open-source models, tools, and datasets underpin such efforts by enabling transparency, accessibility, and replicability among team members and with the broader modeling community.
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| 3. |
- Hodge, Bri-Mathias, et al.
(författare)
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Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions : An International Comparison
- 2012
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind power forecasting is essential for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that may occur is a critical factor for system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.
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| 4. |
- Nordström, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Strategies for Continuous Balancing in Future Power Systems with High Wind and Solar Shares
- 2023
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Ingår i: Energies. - : MDPI AG. - 1996-1073. ; 16:14
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The use of wind power has grown strongly in recent years and is expected to continue to increase in the coming decades. Solar power is also expected to increase significantly. In a power system, a continuous balance is maintained between total production and demand. This balancing is currently mainly managed with conventional power plants, but with larger amounts of wind and solar power, other sources will also be needed. Interesting possibilities include continuous control of wind and solar power, battery storage, electric vehicles, hydrogen production, and other demand resources with flexibility potential. The aim of this article is to describe and compare the different challenges and future possibilities in six systems concerning how to keep a continuous balance in the future with significantly larger amounts of variable renewable power production. A realistic understanding of how these systems plan to handle continuous balancing is central to effectively develop a carbon-dioxide-free electricity system of the future. The systems included in the overview are the Nordic synchronous area, the island of Ireland, the Iberian Peninsula, Texas (ERCOT), the central European system, and Great Britain.
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| 5. |
- Ramadhani, Umar Hanif, 1993-
(författare)
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Uncertainty modeling for load flow and hosting capacity analysis of urban electricity distribution systems
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Urban demographics are changing, with more than half of the global population currently residing in urban areas. Traditionally, cities are often seen as passive energy consumers relying on external centralized systems. Motivated by the need to mitigate climate change, a shift is underway as cities actively shape energy systems. This shift involves decentralized power generation, electric vehicle (EV)-related electricity usage shifts, enhanced building energy efficiency, and increasing interaction between local power generation and load. This poses some challenges to distribution grid operation such as voltage violation, decreased power quality, equipment damage, power losses, and reliability issues. Addressing these issues requires load flow analysis, and to quantify the impacts based on load flow analysis, the hosting capacity concept has been introduced. Although traditional load flow analysis lacks uncertainty consideration, the growth of distributed photovoltaics (PV) generation and EVs demands enhanced accuracy through uncertainty modeling.This thesis contributes to the knowledge of how uncertainty and correlation models can improve the quality of load flow and hosting capacity analysis for urban electricity distribution systems with high penetration of residential PV systems and EVs through the combination of methodological and case studies. Methodological studies propose uncertainty models for input variables and investigate their impact on load flow and hosting capacity assessment. Case studies demonstrate enhanced hosting capacity analysis quality through applied uncertainty models.Results show that concentrated allocation of PV systems and EVs had more severe impacts, in particular at lower penetration levels, and smart charging in concentrated allocation had more significant benefits to reduce peak load and voltage drop. Results regarding residential building roofs show that the inclusion of more residential buildings when the PV penetration increases will require including a lot of less-optimal facets, and, hence, a novel method has been proposed to proportionally include less optimal roofs at every penetration level. The smart charging scheme, which has as its main objective to reduce the net-load variability, improves the electricity distribution system performance, and combined with PV curtailment, can further increase the hosting capacity. An increase in correlations between nodes is also observed due to this smart charging scheme. The city-level simulations show that the distribution system of the city can accommodate a 90% penetration level of PV with less than 1% risk of overvoltage and line loading does not limit the hosting capacity. The method used to model roof facet orientation proves effective for city level applications, given its simplicity and effectiveness.In summary, this thesis concludes that the quality and knowledge of load flow and hosting capacity analysis for urban electricity distribution systems can be improved by several methods, including: the probabilistic model of PV power generation and EV charging profiles, the inclusion of EMS, the consideration of spatial allocation methods of PV and EV, the assessment of the correlation between PV and EV, and the consideration of rooftop tilt and azimuth uncertainties.
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| 6. |
- Söder, Lennart, 1956-, et al.
(författare)
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Wind Generation in Adequacy Calculations and Capacity Markets in Different Power System Control Zones
- 2018
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Ingår i: 17th International Wind Integration Workshop, Stockholm, 17-19 October 2018.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Generation capacity adequacy is a major issue in most power systems, but there are many approaches which canbe assessed. Power system planners often define target values for the capacity adequacy, which may be achieved through capacity markets/auctions, capacity reserves, or capacity purchases. Wind power contributes to the generation capacity adequacy of the power system since there is a possibility that wind power will generate in high load situations and thereby decreases the risk of generation capacity deficit compared tothe system without this source. The contribution is probabilistic– as it is with any other source, since nothing is 100% reliable - but the capacity value of wind power is significantly smaller compared to the capacity value of conventional fossil-fueled plants.In this article, an overview of the fundamental challenges inthe regulation of capacity adequacy as well as how wind poweris treated in some selected existing jurisdictions is presented.The jurisdictions that are included are Sweden, Great Britain,France, Ireland, United States (PJM), Finland, Portugal, SpainNorway and Denmark.
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