| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2020
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 7. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 8. |
- Banjara, Megha Raj, et al.
(författare)
-
Visceral leishmaniasis clinical management in endemic districts of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Journal of Tropical Medicine. - : Hindawi Publishing Corporation. - 1687-9686 .- 1687-9694. ; 2012
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: National VL Elimination Programs in India, Nepal and Bangladesh face challenges as home-based Miltefosine treatment is introduced. Objectives. To study constraints of VL management in endemic districts within context of national elimination programs before and after intervention.Methods: Ninety-two and 41 newly diagnosed VL patients were interviewed for clinical and provider experience in 2009 before and in 2010 after intervention (district training and improved supply of diagnostics and drugs). Providers were assessed for adherence to treatment guidelines. Facilities and doctor-patient consultations were observed to assess quality of care.Results: Miltefosine use increased from 33% to 59% except in Nepal where amphotericin was better available. Incorrect dosage and treatment interruptions were rare. Advice on potential side effects was uncommon but improved significantly in 2010. Physicians did not rule out pregnancy prior to starting Miltefosine. Fever measurement or spleen palpation was infrequently done in Bangladesh but improved after intervention (from 23% to 47%). Physician awareness of renal or liver toxicity as Miltefosine side effects was lower in Bangladesh. Bio-chemical monitoring was uncommon. Patient satisfaction with services remained low for ease of access or time provider spent with patient. Health facilities were better stocked with rK39 kits and Miltefosine in 2010.
|
|
| 9. |
- Huda, M Mamun, et al.
(författare)
-
Active case detection in national visceral leishmaniasis elimination programs in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal : feasibility, performance and costs
- 2012
-
Ingår i: BMC Public Health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2458. ; 12, s. 1001-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Active case detection (ACD) significantly contributes to early detection and treatment of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) cases and is cost effective. This paper evaluates the performance and feasibility of adapting ACD strategies into national programs for VL elimination in Bangladesh, India and Nepal.Methods: The camp search and index case search strategies were piloted in 2010-11 by national programs in high and moderate endemic districts / sub-districts respectively. Researchers independently assessed the performance and feasibility of these strategies through direct observation of activities and review of records. Program costs were estimated using an ingredients costing method.Results: Altogether 48 camps (Bangladesh-27, India-19, Nepal-2) and 81 index case searches (India-36, Nepal-45) were conducted by the health services across 50 health center areas (Bangladesh-4 Upazillas, India-9 PHCs, Nepal-37 VDCs). The mean number of new case detected per camp was 1.3 and it varied from 0.32 in India to 2.0 in Bangladesh. The cost (excluding training costs) of detecting one new VL case per camp varied from USD 22 in Bangladesh, USD 199 in Nepal to USD 320 in India. The camp search strategy detected a substantive number of new PKDL cases. The major challenges faced by the programs were inadequate preparation, time and resources spent on promoting camp awareness through IEC activities in the community. Incorrectly diagnosed splenic enlargement at camps probably due to poor clinical examination skills resulted in a high proportion of patients being subjected to rK39 testing.Conclusion: National programs can adapt ACD strategies for detection of new VL/PKDL cases. However adequate time and resources are required for training, planning and strengthening referral services to overcome challenges faced by the programs in conducting ACD.
|
|
