| 1. |
- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
- Niemi, MEK, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 5. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 6. |
- Amole, C., et al.
(författare)
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The ALPHA antihydrogen trapping apparatus
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-9002 .- 1872-9576. ; 735, s. 319-340
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ALPHA collaboration, based at CERN, has recently succeeded in confining cold antihydrogen atoms in a magnetic minimum neutral atom trap and has performed the first study of a resonant transition of the anti-atoms. The ALPHA apparatus will be described herein, with emphasis on the structural aspects, diagnostic methods and techniques that have enabled antihydrogen trapping and experimentation to be achieved.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Andresen, G. B., et al.
(författare)
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Autoresonant Excitation of Antiproton Plasmas
- 2011
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 106:2, s. 025002-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We demonstrate controllable excitation of the center-of-mass longitudinal motion of a thermal antiproton plasma using a swept-frequency autoresonant drive. When the plasma is cold, dense, and highly collective in nature, we observe that the entire system behaves as a single-particle nonlinear oscillator, as predicted by a recent theory. In contrast, only a fraction of the antiprotons in a warm plasma can be similarly excited. Antihydrogen was produced and trapped by using this technique to drive antiprotons into a positron plasma, thereby initiating atomic recombination
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| 10. |
- Wootton, P. T., et al.
(författare)
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Tagging SNP haplotype analysis of the secretory PLA2-V gene, PLA2G5, shows strong association with LDL and oxLDL levels, suggesting functional distinction from sPLA2-IIA: results from the UDACS study
- 2007
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Ingår i: Hum Mol Genet. ; 16:12, s. 1437-44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Animal and human studies suggest that both secretory PLA2 (sPLA2)-V and sPLA2-IIA (encoded, respectively, by the neighbouring PLA2G5 and PLA2G2A genes) contribute to atherogenesis. Elevated plasma sPLA2-IIA predicts coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, but no mass assay for sPLA2-V is available. We previously reported that tagging single nucleotide polymorphism (tSNP) haplotypes of PLA2G2A are strongly associated with sPLA2-IIA mass, but not lipid levels. Here, we use tSNPs of the sPLA2-V gene to investigate the association of PLA2G5 with CHD risk markers. Seven PLA2G5 tSNPs genotypes, explaining >92% of the locus genetic variability, were determined in 519 patients with Type II diabetes (in whom PLA2G2A tSNP data was available), and defined seven common haplotypes (frequencies >5%). PLA2G5 and PLA2G2A tSNPs showed linkage disequilibrium (LD). Compared to the common PLA2G5 haplotype, H1 (frequency 34.9%), haplotypes H2-7 were associated with overall higher plasma LDL (P < 0.00004) and total cholesterol (P < 0.00003) levels yet lower oxLDL/LDL (P = 0.006) and sPLA2-IIA mass (P = 0.04), probably reflecting LD with PLA2G2A. Intronic tSNP (rs11573248), unlikely itself to be functional, distinguished H1 from LDL-raising haplotypes and may mark a functional site. In conclusion, PLA2G5 tSNP haplotypes demonstrate an association with total and LDL cholesterol and oxLDL/LDL, not seen with PLA2G2A, thus confirming distinct functional roles for these two sPLA2s.
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| 11. |
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