| 1. |
- Saevarsdottir, S., et al.
(författare)
-
Multiomics analysis of rheumatoid arthritis yields sequence variants that have large effects on risk of the seropositive subset
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 81:8
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives To find causal genes for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and its seropositive (RF and/or ACPA positive) and seronegative subsets. Methods We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 31 313 RA cases (68% seropositive) and similar to 1 million controls from Northwestern Europe. We searched for causal genes outside the HLA-locus through effect on coding, mRNA expression in several tissues and/or levels of plasma proteins (SomaScan) and did network analysis (Qiagen). Results We found 25 sequence variants for RA overall, 33 for seropositive and 2 for seronegative RA, altogether 37 sequence variants at 34 non-HLA loci, of which 15 are novel. Genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic analysis of these yielded 25 causal genes in seropositive RA and additional two overall. Most encode proteins in the network of interferon-alpha/beta and IL-12/23 that signal through the JAK/STAT-pathway. Highlighting those with largest effect on seropositive RA, a rare missense variant in STAT4 (rs140675301-A) that is independent of reported non-coding STAT4-variants, increases the risk of seropositive RA 2.27-fold (p=2.1x10(-9)), more than the rs2476601-A missense variant in PTPN22 (OR=1.59, p=1.3x10(-160)). STAT4 rs140675301-A replaces hydrophilic glutamic acid with hydrophobic valine (Glu128Val) in a conserved, surface-exposed loop. A stop-mutation (rs76428106-C) in FLT3 increases seropositive RA risk (OR=1.35, p=6.6x10(-11)). Independent missense variants in TYK2 (rs34536443-C, rs12720356-C, rs35018800-A, latter two novel) associate with decreased risk of seropositive RA (ORs=0.63-0.87, p=10(-9)-10(-27)) and decreased plasma levels of interferon-alpha/beta receptor 1 that signals through TYK2/JAK1/STAT4. Conclusion Sequence variants pointing to causal genes in the JAK/STAT pathway have largest effect on seropositive RA, while associations with seronegative RA remain scarce.
|
|
| 2. |
- Maes, S.L., et al.
(författare)
-
Environmental drivers of increased ecosystem respiration in a warming tundra
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 629:8010, s. 105-113
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.
|
|
| 3. |
- Rixen, C., et al.
(författare)
-
Winters are changing: snow effects on Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Arctic Science. - : Canadian Science Publishing. - 2368-7460. ; 8:3, s. 572-608
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Snow is an important driver of ecosystem processes in cold biomes. Snow accumulation determines ground temperature, light conditions, and moisture availability during winter. It also affects the growing season's start and end, and plant access to moisture and nutrients. Here, we review the current knowledge of the snow cover's role for vegetation, plant-animal interactions, permafrost conditions, microbial processes, and biogeochemical cycling. We also compare studies of natural snow gradients with snow experimental manipulation studies to assess time scale difference of these approaches. The number of tundra snow studies has increased considerably in recent years, yet we still lack a comprehensive overview of how altered snow conditions will affect these ecosystems. Specifically, we found a mismatch in the timing of snowmelt when comparing studies of natural snow gradients with snow manipulations. We found that snowmelt timing achieved by snow addition and snow removal manipulations (average 7.9 days advance and 5.5 days delay, respectively) were substantially lower than the temporal variation over natural spatial gradients within a given year (mean range 56 days) or among years (mean range 32 days). Differences between snow study approaches need to be accounted for when projecting snow dynamics and their impact on ecosystems in future climates.
|
|
| 4. |
- Thorgeirsson, T. E., et al.
(författare)
-
A rare missense mutation in CHRNA4 associates with smoking behavior and its consequences
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 21:5, s. 594-600
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using Icelandic whole-genome sequence data and an imputation approach we searched for rare sequence variants in CHRNA4 and tested them for association with nicotine dependence. We show that carriers of a rare missense variant (allele frequency = 0.24%) within CHRNA4, encoding an R336C substitution, have greater risk of nicotine addiction than non-carriers as assessed by the Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (P = 1.2 x 10(-4)). The variant also confers risk of several serious smoking-related diseases previously shown to be associated with the D398N substitution in CHRNA5. We observed odds ratios (ORs) of 1.7-2.3 for lung cancer (LC; P = 4.0 x 10(-4)), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; P = 9.3 x 10(-4)), peripheral artery disease (PAD; P = 0.090) and abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs; P = 0.12), and the variant associates strongly with the early-onset forms of LC (OR = 4.49, P = 2.2 x 10(-4)), COPD (OR = 3.22, P = 2.9 x 10(-4)), PAD (OR = 3.47, P = 9.2 x 10(-3)) and AAA (OR = 6.44, P = 6.3 x 10(-3)). Joint analysis of the four smoking-related diseases reveals significant association (P = 6.8 x 10(-5)), particularly for early-onset cases (P = 2.1 x 10(-7)). Our results are in agreement with functional studies showing that the human alpha 4 beta 2 isoform of the channel containing R336C has less sensitivity for its agonists than the wild-type form following nicotine incubation.
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Collins, C. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra. It is unclear whether climate driven phenological shifts of tundra plants are consistent across the plant growing season. Here the authors analyse data from a network of field warming experiments in Arctic and alpine tundra, finding that warming differentially affects the timing and duration of reproductive and vegetative phenology.
|
|
| 8. |
|
|
| 9. |
- Gudbjartsson, Daniel F., et al.
(författare)
-
Sequence variants affecting eosinophil numbers associate with asthma and myocardial infarction
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 41:3, s. 342-347
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Eosinophils are pleiotropic multifunctional leukocytes involved in initiation and propagation of inflammatory responses and thus have important roles in the pathogenesis of inflammatory diseases. Here we describe a genome-wide association scan for sequence variants affecting eosinophil counts in blood of 9,392 Icelanders. The most significant SNPs were studied further in 12,118 Europeans and 5,212 East Asians. SNPs at 2q12 (rs1420101), 2q13 (rs12619285), 3q21 (rs4857855), 5q31 (rs4143832) and 12q24 (rs3184504) reached genome-wide significance (P = 5.3 x 10(-14), 5.4 x 10(-10), 8.6 x 10(-17), 1.2 x 10(-10) and 6.5 x 10(-19), respectively). A SNP at IL1RL1 associated with asthma (P = 5.5 x 10(-12)) in a collection of ten different populations (7,996 cases and 44,890 controls). SNPs at WDR36, IL33 and MYB that showed suggestive association with eosinophil counts were also associated with atopic asthma (P = 4.2 x 10(-6), 2.2 x 10(-5) and 2.4 x 10(-4), respectively). We also found that a nonsynonymous SNP at 12q24, in SH2B3, associated significantly (P = 8.6 x 10(-8)) with myocardial infarction in six different populations (6,650 cases and 40,621 controls).
|
|
| 10. |
- Blain, H., et al.
(författare)
-
A comprehensive fracture prevention strategy in older adults : the European union geriatric medicine society (EUGMS) statement
- 2016
-
Ingår i: European Geriatric Medicine. - : Elsevier. - 1878-7649 .- 1878-7657. ; 7:6, s. 519-525
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Prevention of fragility fractures in older people has become a public health priority, although the most appropriate and cost-effective strategy remains unclear. In the present statement, the Interest group on falls and fracture prevention of the European union geriatric medicine society (EUGMS), in collaboration with the International association of gerontology and geriatrics for the European region (IAGG-ER), the European union of medical specialists (EUMS), the Fragility fracture network (FFN), the International osteoporosis foundation (IOF) - European society for clinical and economic aspects of osteoporosis and osteoarthritis (ECCEO), outlines its views on the main points in the current debate in relation to the primary and secondary prevention of falls, the diagnosis and treatment of bone fragility, and the place of combined falls and fracture liaison services for fracture prevention in older people.
|
|
| 11. |
- Boy, M., et al.
(författare)
-
Interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosystems at northern high latitudes
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 19:3, s. 2015-2061
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Nordic Centre of Excellence CRAICC (Cryosphere-Atmosphere Interactions in a Changing Arctic Climate), funded by NordForsk in the years 2011-2016, is the largest joint Nordic research and innovation initiative to date, aiming to strengthen research and innovation regarding climate change issues in the Nordic region. CRAICC gathered more than 100 scientists from all Nordic countries in a virtual centre with the objectives of identifying and quantifying the major processes controlling Arctic warming and related feedback mechanisms, outlining strategies to mitigate Arctic warming, and developing Nordic Earth system modelling with a focus on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), including natural and anthropogenic aerosols. The outcome of CRAICC is reflected in more than 150 peer-reviewed scientific publications, most of which are in the CRAICC special issue of the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. This paper presents an overview of the main scientific topics investigated in the centre and provides the reader with a state-of-the-art comprehensive summary of what has been achieved in CRAICC with links to the particular publications for further detail. Faced with a vast amount of scientific discovery, we do not claim to completely summarize the results from CRAICC within this paper, but rather concentrate here on the main results which are related to feedback loops in climate change-cryosphere interactions that affect Arctic amplification.
|
|
| 12. |
|
|
| 13. |
- Kerkhof, H. J. M., et al.
(författare)
-
Recommendations for standardization and phenotype definitions in genetic studies of osteoarthritis: the TREAT-OA consortium
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Osteoarthritis and Cartilage. - : Elsevier BV. - 1063-4584. ; 19:3, s. 254-264
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To address the need for standardization of osteoarthritis (OA) phenotypes by examining the effect of heterogeneity among symptomatic (SOA) and radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) phenotypes. Methods: Descriptions of OA phenotypes of the 28 studies involved in the TREAT-OA consortium were collected. We investigated whether different OA definitions result in different association results by creating various hip OA definitions in one large population based cohort (the Rotterdam Study I (RSI)) and testing those for association with gender, age and body mass index using one-way ANOVA. For ROA, we standardized the hip-, knee- and hand ROA definitions and calculated prevalence's of ROA before and after standardization in nine cohort studies. This procedure could only be performed in cohort studies and standardization of SOA definitions was not feasible at this moment. Results: In this consortium, all studies with SOA phenotypes (knee, hip and hand) used a different definition and/or assessment of OA status. For knee-, hip- and hand ROA five, four and seven different definitions were used, respectively. Different hip ROA definitions do lead to different association results. For example, we showed in the RSI that hip OA defined as "at least definite joint space narrowing (JSN) and one definite osteophyte" was not associated with gender (P=0.22), but defined as "at least one definite osteophyte" was significantly associated with gender (P=3 x 10(-9)). Therefore, a standardization process was undertaken for ROA definitions. Before standardization a wide range of ROA prevalence's was observed in the nine cohorts studied. After standardization the range in prevalence of knee- and hip ROA was small. Conclusion: Phenotype definitions influence the prevalence of OA and association with clinical variables. ROA phenotypes within the TREAT-OA consortium were standardized to reduce heterogeneity and improve power in future genetics studies. (C) 2010 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 14. |
- Prevey, J. S., et al.
(författare)
-
Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 3:1, s. 45-52
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.
|
|
| 15. |
- Elmendorf, Sarah C., et al.
(författare)
-
Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation : heterogeneity over space and time
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 15:2, s. 164-175
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation and associated ecosystem consequences have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.
|
|
| 16. |
|
|
| 17. |
- Jónsdóttir, I. S., et al.
(författare)
-
Intraspecific trait variability is a key feature underlying high Arctic plant community resistance to climate warming
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Ecological Monographs. - : Wiley. - 0012-9615 .- 1557-7015.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the high Arctic, plant community species composition generally responds slowly to climate warming, whereas less is known about the community functional trait responses and consequences for ecosystem functioning. Slow species turnover and large distribution ranges of many Arctic plant species suggest a significant role of intraspecific trait variability in functional responses to climate change. Here, we compare taxonomic and functional community compositional responses to a long-term (17years) warming experiment in Svalbard, replicated across three major high Arctic habitats shaped by topography and contrasting snow regimes. We observed taxonomic compositional changes in all plant communities over time. Still, responses to experimental warming were minor and most pronounced in the drier habitats with relatively early snowmelt timing and long growing seasons (Cassiope and Dryas heaths). The habitats were clearly separated in functional trait space, defined by twelve size- and leaf economics-related traits, primarily due to interspecific trait variation. Functional traits also responded to experimental warming, most prominently in the Dryas heath and mostly due to intraspecific trait variation. Leaf area and leaf mass increased, and leaf δ15N decreased in response to the warming treatment. Intraspecific trait variability ranged between 30% and 71% of the total trait variation, reflecting functional resilience of those communities, dominated by long-lived plants, due to either phenotypic plasticity or genotypic variation that most likely underlies the observed resistance of high Arctic vegetation to climate warming. We further explored the consequences of trait variability for ecosystem functioning by measuring peak season CO2 fluxes. Together, environmental, taxonomic, and functional trait variables explained a large proportion of the variation in net ecosystem exchange (NEE), which increased when intraspecific trait variation was accounted for. In contrast, even though ecosystem respiration and gross ecosystem production both increased in response to warming across habitats, they were mainly driven by the direct kinetic impacts of temperature on plant physiology and biochemical processes. Our study shows that long-term experimental warming has a modest but significant effect on plant community functional trait composition and suggests that intraspecific trait variability is a key feature underlying high Arctic ecosystem resistance to climate warming.
|
|
| 18. |
- Olafsson, S, et al.
(författare)
-
Fourteen sequence variants that associate with multiple sclerosis discovered by meta-analysis informed by genetic correlations
- 2017
-
Ingår i: NPJ genomic medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2056-7944. ; 2, s. 24-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A meta-analysis of publicly available summary statistics on multiple sclerosis combined with three Nordic multiple sclerosis cohorts (21,079 cases, 371,198 controls) revealed seven sequence variants associating with multiple sclerosis, not reported previously. Using polygenic risk scores based on public summary statistics of variants outside the major histocompatibility complex region we quantified genetic overlap between common autoimmune diseases in Icelanders and identified disease clusters characterized by autoantibody presence/absence. As multiple sclerosis-polygenic risk scores captures the risk of primary biliary cirrhosis and vice versa (P = 1.6 × 10−7, 4.3 × 10−9) we used primary biliary cirrhosis as a proxy-phenotype for multiple sclerosis, the idea being that variants conferring risk of primary biliary cirrhosis have a prior probability of conferring risk of multiple sclerosis. We tested 255 variants forming the primary biliary cirrhosis-polygenic risk score and found seven multiple sclerosis-associating variants not correlated with any previously established multiple sclerosis variants. Most of the variants discovered are close to or within immune-related genes. One is a low-frequency missense variant in TYK2, another is a missense variant in MTHFR that reduces the function of the encoded enzyme affecting methionine metabolism, reported to be dysregulated in multiple sclerosis brain.
|
|
| 19. |
|
|
| 20. |
|
|
| 21. |
- Uusitupa, M., et al.
(författare)
-
Effects of an isocaloric healthy Nordic diet on insulin sensitivity, lipid profile and inflammation markers in metabolic syndrome : a randomized study (SYSDIET)
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Journal of Internal Medicine. - : Wiley. - 0954-6820 .- 1365-2796. ; 274:1, s. 52-66
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Different healthy food patterns may modify cardiometabolic risk. We investigated the effects of an isocaloric healthy Nordic diet on insulin sensitivity, lipid profile, blood pressure and inflammatory markers in people with metabolic syndrome. Methods We conducted a randomized dietary study lasting for 18-24weeks in individuals with features of metabolic syndrome (mean age 55years, BMI 31.6kgm-2, 67% women). Altogether 309 individuals were screened, 200 started the intervention after 4-week run-in period, and 96 (proportion of dropouts 7.9%) and 70 individuals (dropouts 27%) completed the study, in the Healthy diet and Control diet groups, respectively. Healthy diet included whole-grain products, berries, fruits and vegetables, rapeseed oil, three fish meals per week and low-fat dairy products. An average Nordic diet served as a Control diet. Compliance was monitored by repeated 4-day food diaries and fatty acid composition of serum phospholipids. Results Body weight remained stable, and no significant changes were observed in insulin sensitivity or blood pressure. Significant changes between the groups were found in non-HDL cholesterol (-0.18, mmolL-1 95% CI -0.35; -0.01, P=0.04), LDL to HDL cholesterol (-0.15, -0.28; -0.00, P=0.046) and apolipoprotein B to apolipoprotein A1 ratios (-0.04, -0.07; -0.00, P=0.025) favouring the Healthy diet. IL-1 Ra increased during the Control diet (difference -84, -133; -37ngL-1, P= 0.00053). Intakes of saturated fats (E%, beta estimate 4.28, 0.02; 8.53, P=0.049) and magnesium (mg, -0.23, -0.41; -0.05, P=0.012) were associated with IL-1 Ra. Conclusions Healthy Nordic diet improved lipid profile and had a beneficial effect on low-grade inflammation.
|
|
| 22. |
- Walker, M. D., et al.
(författare)
-
Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome
- 2006
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 103:5, s. 1342-1346
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent observations of changes in some tundra ecosystems appear to be responses to a warming climate. Several experimental studies have shown that tundra plants and ecosystems can respond strongly to environmental change, including warming; however, most studies were limited to a single location and were of short duration and based on a variety of experimental designs. In addition, comparisons among studies are difficult because a variety of techniques have been used to achieve experimental warming and different measurements have been used to assess responses. We used metaanalysis on plant community measurements from standardized warming experiments at 11 locations across the tundra biome involved in the International Tundra Experiment. The passive warming treatment increased plant-level air temperature by 1-3 degrees C, which is in the range of predicted and observed warming for tundra regions. Responses were rapid and detected in whole plant communities after only two growing seasons. Overall, warming increased height and cover of deciduous shrubs and graminoids, decreased cover of mosses and lichens, and decreased species diversity and evenness. These results predict that warming will cause a decline in biodiversity across a wide variety of tundra, at least in the short term. They also provide rigorous experimental evidence that recently observed increases in shrub cover in many tundra regions are in response to climate warming. These changes have important implications for processes and interactions within tundra ecosystems and between tundra and the atmosphere.
|
|
| 23. |
|
|
| 24. |
- Elmendorf, S. C., et al.
(författare)
-
Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424. ; 112:2, s. 448-452
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.
|
|
| 25. |
|
|
