| 1. |
- Bradter, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains
- 2022
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 28:21, s. 6209-6227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space-for-time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.
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| 2. |
- Grünwald, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Ecological traits predict population trends of urban birds in Europe
- 2024
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Ingår i: Ecological Indicators. - 1470-160X. ; 160
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The population dynamics of urban animals has been so far remarkably understudied. At the same time, urban species’ population trends can provide important information on the consequences of environmental changes in cities. We modelled long-term population trends of 93 bird species breeding in urban areas in 16 European countries as a function of species’ traits, characterising variability in their urbanization and ecology. We found that: (i) earlier colonisers have more negative population trends than recent colonisers; (ii) more urbanized open habitat species had more positive population trends than less urbanized open habitat species; (iii) highly urbanized birds breeding above the ground had more negative trends than highly urbanized ground breeders. These patterns can be explained by several processes occurring in cities as well as outside city borders. Namely, (i) pre-industrial colonisers might struggle to persist in rapidly changing urban areas, limiting their foraging and breeding opportunities of the birds. (ii) Open habitats are under pressure of intensive agricultural exploitation in rural areas, which may negatively affect populations of less urbanized birds. In contrast, urban areas do not experience such pressure keeping the trends of urbanized open habitat species more positive. (iii) Differences in population trends between highly urbanized ground and above-ground breeders suggest that the latter may lose their breeding opportunities in modern buildings that do not provide suitable breeding sites. Our results indicate that even once successful, city dwellers may not keep pace with changes in urban areas, but these areas may also provide suitable habitats for biodiversity.
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| 3. |
- Monclús, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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Legacy and emerging organohalogenated compounds in feathers of Eurasian eagle-owls (Bubo bubo) in Norway : Spatiotemporal variations and associations with dietary proxies (δ13C and δ15N)
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0013-9351 .- 1096-0953. ; 204
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The occurrence of organohalogenated compounds (OHCs) in wildlife has received considerable attention over the last decades. Among the matrices used for OHCs biomonitoring, feathers are particularly useful as they can be collected in a minimally or non-invasive manner. In this study, concentrations of various legacy OHCs –polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)–, as well as emerging OHCs –per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and organophosphate ester flame retardants (OPEs)– were determined in feathers of 72 Eurasian eagle-owls (Bubo bubo) from Norway, with the goal of studying spatiotemporal variation using a non-invasive approach. Molted feathers were collected at nest sites from northern, central and southern Norway across four summers (2013–2016). Additionally, two museum-archived feathers from 1979 to 1989 were included. Stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen isotopes (δ15N) were used as dietary proxies. In total, 11 PFAS (sum range 8.25–215.90 ng g−1), 15 PCBs (4.19–430.01 ng g−1), 6 OCPs (1.48–220.94 ng g−1), 5 PBDEs (0.21–5.32 ng g−1) and 3 OPEs (4.49–222.21 ng g−1) were quantified. While we observed large variation in the values of both stable isotopes, suggesting a diverse diet of the eagle-owls, only δ13C seemed to explain variation in PFAS concentrations. Geographic area and year were influential factors for δ15N and δ13C. Considerable spatial variation was observed in PFAS levels, with the southern area showing higher levels compared to northern and central Norway. For the rest of OHCs, we observed between-year variations; sum concentrations of PCBs, OCPs, PBDEs and OPEs reached a maximum in 2015 and 2016. Concentrations from 1979 to 1989 were within the ranges observed between 2013 and 2016. Overall, our data indicate high levels of legacy and emerging OHCs in a top predator in Norway, further highlighting the risk posed by OHCs to wildlife.
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| 4. |
- O'Reilly, Enya, et al.
(författare)
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An assessment of relative habitat use as a metric for species’ habitat association and degree of specialization
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecological Indicators. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-160X. ; 135
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to understand species’ sensitivity to habitat change, we must correctly determine if a species is associated with a habitat or not, and if it is associated, its degree of specialization for that habitat. However, definitions of species’ habitat association and specialization are often static, categorical classifications that coarsely define species as either habitat specialists or generalists and can fail to account for potential temporal or spatial differences in association or specialization. In contrast, quantitative metrics can provide a more nuanced assessment, defining species’ habitat associations and specialization along a continuous scale and accommodate for temporal or spatial variation, but these approaches are less widely used. Here we explore relative habitat use (RHU) as a metric for quantifying species’ association with and degree of specialization for different habitat types. RHU determines the extent of a species’ association with a given habitat by comparing its abundance in that habitat relative to its mean abundance across all other habitats. Using monitoring data for breeding birds across Europe from 1998 to 2017; we calculate RHU scores for 246 species for five habitat types and compared them to the literature-based classifications of their association with and specialization for each of these habitats. We also explored the temporal variation in species’ RHU scores for each habitat and assessed how this varied according to association and degree of specialization. In general, species’ RHU and literature-derived classifications were well aligned, as RHU scores for a given habitat increased in line with reported association and specialization. In addition, temporal variation in RHU scores were influenced by association and degree of specialization, with lower scores for those associated with, and those more specialized to, a given habitat. As a continuous metric, RHU allows a detailed assessment of species’ association with and degree of specialization for different habitats that can be tailored to specific temporal and/or spatial requirements. It has the potential to be a valuable tool for identifying indicator species and in supporting the design, implementation and monitoring of conservation management actions.
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| 5. |
- Soultan, Alaaeldin, et al.
(författare)
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The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
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