| 1. |
- Berchet, Antoine, et al.
(författare)
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The Community Inversion Framework v1.0 : A unified system for atmospheric inversion studies
- 2021
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 14:8, s. 5331-5354
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Atmospheric inversion approaches are expected to play a critical role in future observation-based monitoring systems for surface fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs), pollutants and other trace gases. In the past decade, the research community has developed various inversion software, mainly using variational or ensemble Bayesian optimization methods, with various assumptions on uncertainty structures and prior information and with various atmospheric chemistry-Transport models. Each of them can assimilate some or all of the available observation streams for its domain area of interest: flask samples, in situ measurements or satellite observations. Although referenced in peer-reviewed publications and usually accessible across the research community, most systems are not at the level of transparency, flexibility and accessibility needed to provide the scientific community and policy makers with a comprehensive and robust view of the uncertainties associated with the inverse estimation of GHG and reactive species fluxes. Furthermore, their development, usually carried out by individual research institutes, may in the future not keep pace with the increasing scientific needs and technical possibilities. We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is primarily a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers. In practice, the ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool to estimate the fluxes of various GHGs and reactive species both at the global and regional scales. It will allow for running different atmospheric transport models, different observation streams and different data assimilation approaches. This adaptability will allow for a comprehensive assessment of uncertainty in a fully consistent framework. We present here the main structure and functionalities of the system, and we demonstrate how it operates in a simple academic case.
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| 2. |
- Bergamaschi, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions during 2006–2012 using different inverse models and reassessed atmospheric observations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7324. ; 18:2, s. 901-920
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present inverse modelling (top down) estimates of European methane (CH4) emissions for 2006–2012 based on a new quality-controlled and harmonised in situ data set from 18 European atmospheric monitoring stations. We applied an ensemble of seven inverse models and performed four inversion experiments, investigating the impact of different sets of stations and the use of a priori information on emissions. The inverse models infer total CH4 emissions of 26.8 (20.2–29.7) Tg CH4 yr−1 (mean, 10th and 90th percentiles from all inversions) for the EU-28 for 2006–2012 from the four inversion experiments. For comparison, total anthropogenic CH4 emissions reported to UNFCCC (bottom up, based on statistical data and emissions factors) amount to only 21.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 (2006) to 18.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (2012). A potential explanation for the higher range of top-down estimates compared to bottom-up inventories could be the contribution from natural sources, such as peatlands, wetlands, and wet soils. Based on seven different wetland inventories from the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), total wetland emissions of 4.3 (2.3–8.2) Tg CH4 yr−1 from the EU-28 are estimated. The hypothesis of significant natural emissions is supported by the finding that several inverse models yield significant seasonal cycles of derived CH4 emissions with maxima in summer, while anthropogenic CH4 emissions are assumed to have much lower seasonal variability. Taking into account the wetland emissions from the WETCHIMP ensemble, the top-down estimates are broadly consistent with the sum of anthropogenic and natural bottom-up inventories. However, the contribution of natural sources and their regional distribution remain rather uncertain. Furthermore, we investigate potential biases in the inverse models by comparison with regular aircraft profiles at four European sites and with vertical profiles obtained during the Infrastructure for Measurement of the European Carbon Cycle (IMECC) aircraft campaign. We present a novel approach to estimate the biases in the derived emissions, based on the comparison of simulated and measured enhancements of CH4 compared to the background, integrated over the entire boundary layer and over the lower troposphere. The estimated average regional biases range between −40 and 20 % at the aircraft profile sites in France, Hungary and Poland.
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| 3. |
- Donofrio, Claudio, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term Reproducibility for Jupyter Notebook
- 2023
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Computational notebooks (e.g. Jupyter notebook) are a popular choice for interactive scientific computing to convey descriptive information together with executable source code. The user can annotate the scientific development of the work, the methods applied, describe ancillary data or the analysis of results, with text, illustrations, figures, and equations. Such ‘executable’ documents provide a paradigm shift in scientific writing, where not only the science is described, but the actual computation and source code are openly available and can be reproduced and validated.Therefore, it is of paramount importance to preserve these documents. A unique and persistent identification (PID) is essential together with providing enough information to execute the source code. Generating a PID for a Jupyter notebook is not technically challenging. We can automatically collect system and run-time information and, with a guided workflow for the user, assemble a rich set of metadata. The collected information allows us to recreate the computational environment and run the source code, which in return (theoretically) should produce the same results as published.The importance of providing a rich set of metadata for all digital objects in a human readable and machine actionable form is well understood and widely accepted as necessity for reproducibility, traceability, and provenance. This is reflected in the FAIR principles (Wilkinson, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.18) which are regarded as gold standard by many scientific communities.Pimentel et al. (https://doi.org/10.1109/MSR.2019.00077) analysed over 800’000 Jupyter notebooks from GitHub. 24 % executed without errors and only 4 % produced the same results. The likelihood to successfully compile and run a decade old source code is slim. Long term support for well established operating systems varies between 5 to 10 years, user software support is usually shorter and looking at free and open-source repositories there is often no support (or best effort) offered.We present an approach to safely reproduce the computational environment in the future with a focus on long-term availability. Instead of trying to reinstall the computational environment based on the stored metadata, we propose to archive the docker image, the user space (user installed packages) and finally the source code. Recreating the system in this way is more like restoring a backup, where backup is the equivalent of an entire computer system. It does not solve all the problems but removes a great deal of complexity and uncertainty.Though there are shortcomings in our approach, we believe our solution will lower the threshold for scientists to provide rich meta data, code and results attached to a publication that can be reproduced in the far future.
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| 4. |
- Garcia-Closas, Montserrat, et al.
(författare)
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Heterogeneity of breast cancer associations with five susceptibility loci by clinical and pathological characteristics
- 2008
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Ingår i: PLoS genetics. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7404. ; 4:4, s. e1000054-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A three-stage genome-wide association study recently identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in five loci (fibroblast growth receptor 2 (FGFR2), trinucleotide repeat containing 9 (TNRC9), mitogen-activated protein kinase 3 K1 (MAP3K1), 8q24, and lymphocyte-specific protein 1 (LSP1)) associated with breast cancer risk. We investigated whether the associations between these SNPs and breast cancer risk varied by clinically important tumor characteristics in up to 23,039 invasive breast cancer cases and 26,273 controls from 20 studies. We also evaluated their influence on overall survival in 13,527 cases from 13 studies. All participants were of European or Asian origin. rs2981582 in FGFR2 was more strongly related to ER-positive (per-allele OR (95%CI) = 1.31 (1.27-1.36)) than ER-negative (1.08 (1.03-1.14)) disease (P for heterogeneity = 10(-13)). This SNP was also more strongly related to PR-positive, low grade and node positive tumors (P = 10(-5), 10(-8), 0.013, respectively). The association for rs13281615 in 8q24 was stronger for ER-positive, PR-positive, and low grade tumors (P = 0.001, 0.011 and 10(-4), respectively). The differences in the associations between SNPs in FGFR2 and 8q24 and risk by ER and grade remained significant after permutation adjustment for multiple comparisons and after adjustment for other tumor characteristics. Three SNPs (rs2981582, rs3803662, and rs889312) showed weak but significant associations with ER-negative disease, the strongest association being for rs3803662 in TNRC9 (1.14 (1.09-1.21)). rs13281615 in 8q24 was associated with an improvement in survival after diagnosis (per-allele HR = 0.90 (0.83-0.97). The association was attenuated and non-significant after adjusting for known prognostic factors. Our findings show that common genetic variants influence the pathological subtype of breast cancer and provide further support for the hypothesis that ER-positive and ER-negative disease are biologically distinct. Understanding the etiologic heterogeneity of breast cancer may ultimately result in improvements in prevention, early detection, and treatment.
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| 5. |
- Harrie, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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The need for country masks for future national greenhouse gas flux estimations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geospatial Technologies for All : short papers, posters and poster abstracts of the 21th AGILE Conference on Geographic Information Science. Lund University 12-15 June 2018, Lund, Sweden - short papers, posters and poster abstracts of the 21th AGILE Conference on Geographic Information Science. Lund University 12-15 June 2018, Lund, Sweden. - 9783319782089
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Paris Agreement requests a substantial reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These emissions are currently mainly estimated from bottom-up inventories and process-based models of land and ocean fluxes. Another, complementary approach is based on measurements of the atmospheric GHG concentration in combination with atmospheric inverse modelling to provide the GHG fluxes. For the latter approach the GIScience community should contribute with providing an appropriate country mask to enable estimations of national budgets. This paper aims at describing the requirement of such a country mask as well as report on technical solutions for preliminary tests we made on national GHG flux estimations.
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| 6. |
- Heiskanen, Jouni, et al.
(författare)
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The Integrated Carbon Observation System in Europe
- 2022
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 103:3, s. 855-872
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since 1750, land-use change and fossil fuel combustion has led to a 46% increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, causing global warming with substantial societal consequences. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature increases to well below 2C above preindustrial levels. Increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), in the atmosphere are the primary cause of climate change. Approximately half of the carbon emissions to the atmosphere are sequestered by ocean and land sinks, leading to ocean acidification but also slowing the rate of global warming. However, there are significant uncertainties in the future global warming scenarios due to uncertainties in the size, nature, and stability of these sinks. Quantifying and monitoring the size and timing of natural sinks and the impact of climate change on ecosystems are important information to guide policy-makers' decisions and strategies on reductions in emissions. Continuous, long-term observations are required to quantify GHG emissions, sinks, and their impacts on Earth systems. The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) was designed as the European in situ observation and information system to support science and society in their efforts to mitigate climate change. It provides standardized and open data currently from over 140 measurement stations across 12 European countries. The stations observe GHG concentrations in the atmosphere and carbon and GHG fluxes between the atmosphere, land surface, and the oceans. This article describes how ICOS fulfills its mission to harmonize these observations, ensure the related long-term financial commitments, provide easy access to well-documented and reproducible high-quality data and related protocols and tools for scientific studies, and deliver information and GHG-related products to stakeholders in society and policy.
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| 7. |
- Karstens, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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A process-based 222radon flux map for Europe and its comparison to long-term observations
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7324. ; 15:22, s. 12845-12865
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Detailed (222)radon (Rn-222) flux maps are an essential pre-requisite for the use of radon in atmospheric transport studies. Here we present a high-resolution Rn-222 flux map for Europe, based on a parameterization of Rn-222 production and transport in the soil. The Rn-222 exhalation rate is parameterized based on soil properties, uranium content, and modelled soil moisture from two different land-surface reanalysis data sets. Spatial variations in exhalation rates are primarily determined by the uranium content of the soil, but also influenced by soil texture and local water-table depth. Temporal variations are related to soil moisture variations as the molecular diffusion in the unsaturated soil zone depends on available air-filled pore space. The implemented diffusion parameterization was tested against campaign-based Rn-222 soil profile measurements. Monthly Rn-222 exhalation rates from European soils were calculated with a nominal spatial resolution of 0.083 degrees x 0.083 degrees and compared to long-term direct measurements of Rn-222 exhalation rates in different areas of Europe. The two realizations of the Rn-222 flux map, based on the different soil moisture data sets, both realistically reproduce the observed seasonality in the fluxes but yield considerable differences for absolute flux values. The mean Rn-222 flux from soils in Europe is estimated to be 10 mBq m(-2) s(-1) (ERA-Interim/Land soil moisture) or 15 mBq m(-2) s(-1) (GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) Noah soil moisture) for the period 2006-2010. The corresponding seasonal variations with low fluxes in winter and high fluxes in summer range in the two realizations from ca. 7 to ca. 14 mBq m(-2) s(-1) and from ca. 11 to ca. 20 mBq m(-2) s(-1), respectively. These systematic differences highlight the importance of realistic soil moisture data for a reliable estimation of Rn-222 exhalation rates. Comparison with observations suggests that the flux estimates based on the GLDAS Noah soil moisture model on average better represent observed fluxes.
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| 8. |
- Kirchhoff, Tomas, et al.
(författare)
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Breast cancer risk and 6q22.33 : combined results from Breast Cancer Association Consortium and Consortium of Investigators on Modifiers of BRCA1/2
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public library of science. - 1932-6203. ; 7:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recently, a locus on chromosome 6q22.33 (rs2180341) was reported to be associated with increased breast cancer risk in the Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) population, and this association was also observed in populations of non-AJ European ancestry. In the present study, we performed a large replication analysis of rs2180341 using data from 31,428 invasive breast cancer cases and 34,700 controls collected from 25 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). In addition, we evaluated whether rs2180341 modifies breast cancer risk in 3,361 BRCA1 and 2,020 BRCA2 carriers from 11 centers in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA). Based on the BCAC data from women of European ancestry, we found evidence for a weak association with breast cancer risk for rs2180341 (per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.06, p = 0.023). There was evidence for heterogeneity in the ORs among studies (I(2) = 49.3%; p = <0.004). In CIMBA, we observed an inverse association with the minor allele of rs2180341 and breast cancer risk in BRCA1 mutation carriers (per-allele OR = 0.89, 95%CI 0.80-1.00, p = 0.048), indicating a potential protective effect of this allele. These data suggest that that 6q22.33 confers a weak effect on breast cancer risk.
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| 9. |
- Levin, Ingeborg, et al.
(författare)
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A dedicated flask sampling strategy developed for Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) stations based on CO2 and CO measurements and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) footprint modelling
- 2020
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 20:18, s. 11161-11180
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In situ CO2 and CO measurements from five Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) atmosphere stations have been analysed together with footprint model runs from the regional Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model to develop a dedicated strategy for flask sampling with an automated sampler. Flask sampling in ICOS has three different purposes, namely (1) to provide an independent quality control for in situ observations, (2) to provide representative information on atmospheric components currently not monitored in situ at the stations, and (3) to collect samples for 14CO2 analysis that are significantly influenced by fossil fuel CO2 ( ffCO2 ) emission areas. Based on the existing data and experimental results obtained at the Heidelberg pilot station with a prototype flask sampler, we suggest that single flask samples are collected regularly every third day around noon or in the afternoon from the highest level of a tower station. Air samples shall be collected over 1 h, with equal temporal weighting, to obtain a true hourly mean. At all stations studied, more than 50 % of flasks collected around midday will likely be sampled during low ambient variability ( <0.5 parts per million (ppm) standard deviation of 1 min values). Based on a first application at the Hohenpeißenberg ICOS site, such flask data are principally suitable for detecting CO2 concentration biases larger than 0.1 ppm with a 1 σ confidence level between flask and in situ observations from only five flask comparisons. In order to have a maximum chance to also sample ffCO2 emission areas, additional flasks are collected on all other days in the afternoon. To check if the ffCO2 component will indeed be large in these samples, we use the continuous in situ CO observations. The CO deviation from an estimated background value is determined the day after each flask sampling, and depending on this offset, an automated decision is made as to whether a flask shall be retained for 14CO2 analysis. It turned out that, based on existing data, ffCO2 events of more than 4-5 ppm that would allow ffCO2 estimates with an uncertainty below 30 % were very rare at all stations studied, particularly in summer (only zero to five events per month from May to August). During the other seasons, events could be collected more frequently. The strategy developed in this project is currently being implemented at the ICOS stations.
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| 10. |
- Levin, Ingeborg, et al.
(författare)
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Limitations of the radon tracer method (RTM) to estimate regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions - A case study for methane in Heidelberg
- 2021
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 21:23, s. 17907-17926
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Correlations of nighttime atmospheric methane (CH4) and 222radon (222Rn) observations in Heidelberg, Germany, were evaluated with the radon tracer method (RTM) to estimate the trend of annual nocturnal CH4 emissions from 1996-2020 in the footprint of the station. After an initial 30ĝ€¯% decrease in emissions from 1996 to 2004, there was no further systematic trend but small inter-annual variations were observed thereafter. This is in accordance with the trend of total emissions until 2010 reported by the EDGARv6.0 inventory for the surroundings of Heidelberg and provides a fully independent top-down verification of the bottom-up inventory changes. We show that the reliability of total nocturnal CH4 emission estimates with the RTM critically depends on the accuracy and representativeness of the 222Rn exhalation rates estimated from soils in the footprint of the site. Simply using 222Rn fluxes as estimated by Karstens et al. (2015) could lead to biases in the estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes as large as a factor of 2. RTM-based GHG flux estimates also depend on the parameters chosen for the nighttime correlations of CH4 and 222Rn, such as the nighttime period for regressions and the R2 cut-off value for the goodness of the fit. Quantitative comparison of total RTM-based top-down flux estimates with bottom-up emission inventories requires representative high-resolution footprint modelling, particularly in polluted areas where CH4 emissions show large heterogeneity. Even then, RTM-based estimates are likely biased low if point sources play a significant role in the station footprint as their emissions may not be fully captured by the RTM method, for example, if stack emissions are injected above the top of the nocturnal inversion layer or if point-source emissions from the surface are not well mixed into the footprint of the measurement site. Long-term representative 222Rn flux observations in the footprint of a station are indispensable in order to apply the RTM method for reliable quantitative flux estimations of GHG emissions from atmospheric observations.
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| 11. |
- Monteil, Guillaume, et al.
(författare)
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The regional European atmospheric transport inversion comparison, EUROCOM : First results on European-wide terrestrial carbon fluxes for the period 2006-2015
- 2020
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 20:20, s. 12063-12091
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Atmospheric inversions have been used for the past two decades to derive large-scale constraints on the sources and sinks of CO2 into the atmosphere. The development of dense in situ surface observation networks, such as ICOS in Europe, enables in theory inversions at a resolution close to the country scale in Europe. This has led to the development of many regional inversion systems capable of assimilating these high-resolution data, in Europe and elsewhere. The EUROCOM (European atmospheric transport inversion comparison) project is a collaboration between seven European research institutes, which aims at producing a collective assessment of the net carbon flux between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere in Europe for the period 2006 2015. It aims in particular at investigating the capacity of the inversions to deliver consistent flux estimates from the country scale up to the continental scale. The project participants were provided with a common database of in situ-observed CO2 concentrations (including the observation sites that are now part of the ICOS network) and were tasked with providing their best estimate of the net terrestrial carbon flux for that period, and for a large domain covering the entire European Union. The inversion systems differ by the transport model, the inversion approach, and the choice of observation and prior constraints, enabling us to widely explore the space of uncertainties. This paper describes the intercomparison protocol and the participating systems, and it presents the first results from a reference set of inversions, at the continental scale and in four large regions. At the continental scale, the regional inversions support the assumption that European ecosystems are a relatively small sink (-0:21 ± 0:2 Pg C yr-1). We find that the convergence of the regional inversions at this scale is not better than that obtained in state-of-the-art global inversions. However, more robust results are obtained for subregions within Europe, and in these areas with dense observational coverage, the objective of delivering robust countryscale flux estimates appears achievable in the near future.
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| 12. |
- Munassar, Saqr, et al.
(författare)
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Why do inverse models disagree? A case study with two European CO2 inversions
- 2023
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 23:4, s. 2813-2828
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an analysis of atmospheric transport impact on estimating CO2 fluxes using two atmospheric inversion systems (CarboScope-Regional (CSR) and Lund University Modular Inversion Algorithm (LUMIA)) over Europe in 2018. The main focus of this study is to quantify the dominant drivers of spread amid CO2 estimates derived from atmospheric tracer inversions. The Lagrangian transport models STILT (Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport) and FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle) were used to assess the impact of mesoscale transport. The impact of lateral boundary conditions for CO2 was assessed by using two different estimates from the global inversion systems CarboScope (TM3) and TM5-4DVAR. CO2 estimates calculated with an ensemble of eight inversions differing in the regional and global transport models, as well as the inversion systems, show a relatively large spread for the annual fluxes, ranging between -0.72 and 0.20gPgCgyr-1, which is larger than the a priori uncertainty of 0.47gPgCgyr-1. The discrepancies in annual budget are primarily caused by differences in the mesoscale transport model (0.51gPgCgyr-1), in comparison with 0.23 and 0.10gPgCgyr-1 that resulted from the far-field contributions and the inversion systems, respectively. Additionally, varying the mesoscale transport caused large discrepancies in spatial and temporal patterns, while changing the lateral boundary conditions led to more homogeneous spatial and temporal impact. We further investigated the origin of the discrepancies between transport models. The meteorological forcing parameters (forecasts versus reanalysis obtained from ECMWF data products) used to drive the transport models are responsible for a small part of the differences in CO2 estimates, but the largest impact seems to come from the transport model schemes. Although a good convergence in the differences between the inversion systems was achieved by applying a strict protocol of using identical prior fluxes and atmospheric datasets, there was a non-negligible impact arising from applying a different inversion system. Specifically, the choice of prior error structure accounted for a large part of system-to-system differences.
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| 13. |
- Nickless, Alecia, et al.
(författare)
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Greenhouse gas observation network design for Africa
- 2020
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1, s. 1-30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An optimal network design was carried out to prioritise the installation or refurbishment of greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring stations around Africa. The network was optimised to reduce the uncertainty in emissions across three of the most important GHGs: CO2, CH4, and N2O. Optimal networks were derived using incremental optimisation of the percentage uncertainty reduction achieved by a Gaussian Bayesian atmospheric inversion. The solution for CO2 was driven by seasonality in net primary productivity. The solution for N2O was driven by activity in a small number of soil flux hotspots. The optimal solution for CH4 was consistent over different seasons. All solutions for CO2 and N2O placed sites in central Africa at places such as Kisangani, Kinshasa and Bunia (Democratic Republic of Congo), Dundo and Lubango (Angola), Zoétélé (Cameroon), Am Timan (Chad), and En Nahud (Sudan). Many of these sites appeared in the CH4 solutions, but with a few sites in southern Africa as well, such as Amersfoort (South Africa). The multi-species optimal network design solutions tended to have sites more evenly spread-out, but concentrated the placement of new tall-tower stations in Africa between 10ºN and 25ºS. The uncertainty reduction achieved by the multi-species network of twelve stations reached 47.8% for CO2, 34.3% for CH4, and 32.5% for N2O. The gains in uncertainty reduction diminished as stations were added to the solution, with an expected maximum of less than 60%. A reduction in the absolute uncertainty in African GHG emissions requires these additional measurement stations, as well as additional constraint from an integrated GHG observatory and a reduction in uncertainty in the prior biogenic fluxes in tropical Africa.
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| 14. |
- Papale, Dario, et al.
(författare)
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Standards and Open Access are the ICOS Pillars Reply to "Comments on 'The Integrated Carbon Observation System in Europe'"
- 2023
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 104:12, s. 953-955
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In his comment (Kowalski 2023) on our recent publication (Heiskanen et al. 2022) where we present the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) research infrastructure, Andrew Kowalski introduces three important and, in our opinion, different potential issues in the definition, collection, and availability of field measurements made by the ICOS network, and he proposes possible solutions to these issues.
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| 15. |
- Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, et al.
(författare)
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The consolidated European synthesis of CO2emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom : 1990-2018
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:5, s. 2363-2406
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well-characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990-2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGIs, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states following the IPCC Guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arises from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGIs and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), which is well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011-2015, the CO2 land sources and sinks from NGHGI estimates report-90 Tg C yr-1 ± 30 Tg C yr-1 while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of-98 Tg C yr-1 (± 362 Tg of C from dynamic global vegetation models only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e., mean of 253 Tg C yr-1 ± 400 Tg C yr-1). This concludes that (a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGIs and (b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a verification because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of "CO2 flux"obtained from different approaches. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized.
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| 16. |
- Pieber, Simone M., et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of regional CO2contributions at the high Alpine observatory Jungfraujoch by means of atmospheric transport simulations and δ13C
- 2022
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 22:16, s. 10721-10749
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, we investigated the regional contributions of carbon dioxide (CO2) at the location of the high Alpine observatory Jungfraujoch (JFJ, Switzerland, 3580ĝ€¯mĝ€¯a.s.l.). To this purpose, we combined receptor-oriented atmospheric transport simulations for CO2 concentration in the period 2009-2017 with stable carbon isotope (δ13C-CO2) information. We applied two Lagrangian particle dispersion models driven by output from two different numerical weather prediction systems (FLEXPART-COSMO and STILT-ECMWF) in order to simulate CO2 concentration at JFJ based on regional CO2 fluxes, to estimate atmospheric δ13C-CO2, and to obtain model-based estimates of the mixed source signatures (δ13Cm). Anthropogenic fluxes were taken from a fuel-type-specific version of the EDGAR v4.3 inventory, while ecosystem fluxes were based on the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). The simulations of CO2, δ13C-CO2, and δ13Cm were then compared to observations performed by quantum cascade laser absorption spectroscopy. The models captured around 40ĝ€¯% of the regional CO2 variability above or below the large-scale background and up to 35ĝ€¯% of the regional variability in δ13C-CO2. This is according to expectations considering the complex Alpine topography, the low intensity of regional signals at JFJ, and the challenging measurements. Best agreement between simulations and observations in terms of short-term variability and intensity of the signals for CO2 and δ13C-CO2 was found between late autumn and early spring. The agreement was inferior in the early autumn periods and during summer. This may be associated with the atmospheric transport representation in the models. In addition, the net ecosystem exchange fluxes are a possible source of error, either through inaccuracies in their representation in VPRM for the (Alpine) vegetation or through a day (uptake) vs. night (respiration) transport discrimination to JFJ. Furthermore, the simulations suggest that JFJ is subject to relatively small regional anthropogenic contributions due to its remote location (elevated and far from major anthropogenic sources) and the limited planetary boundary layer influence during winter. Instead, the station is primarily exposed to summertime ecosystem CO2 contributions, which are dominated by rather nearby sources (within 100ĝ€¯km). Even during winter, simulated gross ecosystem respiration accounted for approximately 50ĝ€¯% of all contributions to the CO2 concentrations above the large-scale background. The model-based monthly mean δ13Cm ranged from -ĝ€¯22ĝ€¯‰ in winter to -ĝ€¯28ĝ€¯‰ in summer and reached the most depleted values of -ĝ€¯35ĝ€¯‰ at higher fractions of natural gas combustion, as well as the most enriched values of -ĝ€¯17ĝ€¯‰ to -ĝ€¯12ĝ€¯‰ when impacted by cement production emissions. Observation-based δ13Cm values were derived independently from the simulations by a moving Keeling-plot approach. While model-based estimates spread in a narrow range, observation-based δ13Cm values exhibited a larger scatter and were limited to a smaller number of data points due to the stringent analysis prerequisites.
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| 17. |
- Röttger, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Radon metrology for use in climate change observation and radiation protection at the environmental level
- 2022
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Ingår i: Advances in Geosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7340 .- 1680-7359. ; 57, s. 37-47
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Radon (222Rn) gas is the largest source of public exposure to naturally occurring radioactivity and the identification of radon priority areas is required by the Council Directive 2013/59/Euratom. Radon is also used as a tracer to improve atmospheric transport models and to indirectly estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes using the Radon Tracer Method (RTM). This method is based on the correlation between atmospheric concentrations of radon and GHG, together with information on the radon flux data. For radiological data, all European countries have installed networks of automatic gamma dose rate monitoring stations and report the real-time information gathered to the European Radiological Data Exchange Platform (EURDEP). So far, atmospheric radon activity concentrations and radon fluxes are not yet reported in EURDEP, nor routinely measured within the European radiological networks although these observations could help to avoid false positives results. Due to above applications, there is a need of building a metrological chain to ensure high quality radon activity concentrations and radon flux measurements. Both climate and radiation protection research communities underline the need for improved traceability in low-level atmospheric radon measurements (Khanbabaee et al., 2021). The EMPIR project 19ENV01 traceRadonThis project 19ENV01 traceRadon has received funding from the EMPIR programme co-financed by the Participating States and from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. 19ENV01 traceRadon denotes the EMPIR project reference. is aimed towards providing the necessary measurement infrastructure and transfer standards to fulfil this need. Results of this project are particularly important for improving independent GHG emission estimates that support national reporting under the Paris Agreement on climate change and for the Council Directive 2013/59/Euratom, thus benefitting two large scientific communities. In this paper, early results, such as new activity standard developments and an overview of commercial and research radon monitors are presented and discussed. These results will feed into the traceRadon project with respect to radionuclide metrology in air and its potential for the improvement of the RTM.
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| 18. |
- Storm, Ida, et al.
(författare)
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A view of the European carbon flux landscape through the lens of the ICOS atmospheric observation network
- 2023
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - 1680-7316. ; 23:9, s. 4993-5008
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observation System) network of atmospheric measurement stations produces standardized data on greenhouse gas concentrations at 46 stations in 16 different European countries (March 2023). The placement of instruments on tall towers and mountains results in large influence regions (“concentration footprints”). The combined footprints for all the individual stations create a “lens” through which the network sees the European CO2 flux landscape. In this study, we summarize this view using quantitative metrics of the fluxes seen by individual stations and by the current and extended ICOS networks. Results are presented from both country level and pan-European perspectives, using open-source tools that we make available through the ICOS Carbon Portal. We target anthropogenic emissions from various sectors, as well as the land cover types found across Europe and their spatiotemporally varying fluxes. This recognizes different interests of different ICOS stakeholders. We specifically introduce “monitoring potential maps” to identify which regions have a relative underrepresentation of biospheric fluxes. This potential changes with the introduction of new stations, which we investigate for the planned ICOS expansion with 19 stations over the next few years.In our study focused on the summer of 2020, we find that the ICOS atmospheric station network has limited sensitivity to anthropogenic fluxes, as was intended in the current design. Its representation of biospheric fluxes follows the fractional representation of land cover and is generally well balanced considering the pan-European view. Exceptions include representation of grass and shrubland and broadleaf forest which are abundant in south-eastern European countries, particularly Croatia and Serbia. On the country scale, the representation shows larger imbalances, even within relatively densely monitored countries. The flexibility to consider individual ecosystems, countries, or their integrals across Europe demonstrates the usefulness of our analyses and can readily be reproduced for any network configuration within Europe.
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| 19. |
- Van Der Woude, Auke M., et al.
(författare)
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Near-real-time CO2 fluxes from CarbonTracker Europe for high-resolution atmospheric modeling
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 15:2, s. 579-605
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the CarbonTracker Europe High-Resolution (CTE-HR) system that estimates carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange over Europe at high resolution (0.1 × 0.2° ) and in near real time (about 2 months' latency). It includes a dynamic anthropogenic emission model, which uses easily available statistics on economic activity, energy use, and weather to generate anthropogenic emissions with dynamic time profiles at high spatial and temporal resolution (0.1×0.2° hourly). Hourly net ecosystem productivity (NEP) calculated by the Simple Biosphere model Version 4 (SiB4) is driven by meteorology from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) dataset. This NEP is downscaled to 0.1×0.2° using the high-resolution Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-cover map and combined with the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) fire emissions to create terrestrial carbon fluxes. Ocean CO2 fluxes are included in our product, based on Jena CarboScope ocean CO2 fluxes, which are downscaled using wind speed and temperature. Jointly, these flux estimates enable modeling of atmospheric CO2 mole fractions over Europe. We assess the skill of the CTE-HR CO2 fluxes (a) to reproduce observed anomalies in biospheric fluxes and atmospheric CO2 mole fractions during the 2018 European drought, (b) to capture the reduction of anthropogenic emissions due to COVID-19 lockdowns, (c) to match mole fraction observations at Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) sites across Europe after atmospheric transport with the Transport Model, version 5 (TM5) and the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT), driven by ECMWF-IFS, and (d) to capture the magnitude and variability of measured CO2 fluxes in the city center of Amsterdam (the Netherlands). We show that CTE-HR fluxes reproduce large-scale flux anomalies reported in previous studies for both biospheric fluxes (drought of 2018) and anthropogenic emissions (COVID-19 pandemic in 2020). After applying transport of emitted CO2, the CTE-HR fluxes have lower median root mean square errors (RMSEs) relative to mole fraction observations than fluxes from a non-informed flux estimate, in which biosphere fluxes are scaled to match the global growth rate of CO2 (poor person's inversion). RMSEs are close to those of the reanalysis with the CTE data assimilation system. This is encouraging given that CTE-HR fluxes did not profit from the weekly assimilation of CO2 observations as in CTE. We furthermore compare CO2 concentration observations at the Dutch Lutjewad coastal tower with high-resolution STILT transport to show that the high-resolution fluxes manifest variability due to different emission sectors in summer and winter. Interestingly, in periods where synoptic-scale transport variability dominates CO2 concentration variations, the CTE-HR fluxes perform similarly to low-resolution fluxes (5-10× coarsened). The remaining 10 % of the simulated CO2 mole fraction differs by >2 ppm between the low-resolution and high-resolution flux representation and is clearly associated with coherent structures ("plumes") originating from emission hotspots such as power plants. We therefore note that the added resolution of our product will matter most for very specific locations and times when used for atmospheric CO2 modeling. Finally, in a densely populated region like the Amsterdam city center, our modeled fluxes underestimate the magnitude of measured eddy covariance fluxes but capture their substantial diurnal variations in summertime and wintertime well. We conclude that our product is a promising tool for modeling the European carbon budget at a high resolution in near real time. The fluxes are freely available from the ICOS Carbon Portal (CC-BY-4.0) to be used for near-real-time monitoring and modeling, for example, as an a priori flux product in a CO2 data assimilation system. The data are available at 10.18160/20Z1-AYJ2 .
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| 20. |
- Vermeulen, Alex, et al.
(författare)
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ENVRI-FAIR D8.7: The FAIRness of ICOS
- 2023
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report presents the extended implementation of the FAIR principles by ICOS Atmosphere during the ENVRI-FAIR project.
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| 21. |
- Zanchetta, Alessandro, et al.
(författare)
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Sources and sinks of carbonyl sulfide inferred from tower and mobile atmospheric observations in the Netherlands
- 2023
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - 1726-4170. ; 20:16, s. 3539-3553
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is a promising tracer for the estimation of terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production (GPP). However, understanding its non-GPP-related sources and sinks, e.g., anthropogenic sources and soil sources and sinks, is also critical to the success of the approach. Here we infer the regional sources and sinks of COS using continuous in situ mole fraction profile measurements of COS along the 60gm tall Lutjewad tower (1gmga.s.l.; 53g 24′gN, 6g 21′gE) in the Netherlands. To identify potential sources that caused the observed enhancements of COS mole fractions at Lutjewad, both discrete flask samples and in situ measurements in the province of Groningen were made from a mobile van using a quantum cascade laser spectrometer (QCLS). We also simulated the COS mole fractions at Lutjewad using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model combined with emission inventories and plant uptake fluxes. We determined the nighttime COS fluxes to be -3.0±2.6gpmolgm-2gs-1 using the radon-tracer correlation approach and Lutjewad observations. Furthermore, we identified and quantified several COS sources, including biodigesters, sugar production facilities and silicon carbide production facilities in the province of Groningen. Moreover, the simulation results show that the observed COS enhancements can be partially explained by known industrial sources of COS and CS2, in particular from the Ruhr Valley (51.5gN, 7.2gE) and Antwerp (51.2gN, 4.4gE) areas. The contribution of likely missing anthropogenic sources of COS and CS2 in the inventory may be significant. The impact of the identified sources in the province of Groningen is estimated to be negligible in terms of the observed COS enhancements. However, in specific conditions, these sources may influence the measurements in Lutjewad. These results are valuable for improving our understanding of the sources and sinks of COS, contributing to the use of COS as a tracer for GPP.
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