| 1. |
- Belyazid, Salim, et al.
(författare)
-
A Sustainability Assessment of the Urban Rehabilitation Project of the Medina of Fez, Morocco
- 2003
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. - 9780967291482
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The old city of Fez, Morocco, classified as Heritage of Humankind by the UNESCO, is subject to an integrated rehabilitation plan running over 15 years. The plan aims at restoring and preserving the economy, cultural value, and social heritage of the old city. The study follows a system dynamics approach to describe and analyze the rehabilitation plan in order to identify the strengths and defects of the plan. This study shows that while the plan is giving relatively satisfying results over the short and medium terms, it is unlikely to attain long term sustainability.
|
|
| 2. |
- Camphuis, Kevin
(creator_code:cre_t)
-
PROTEIN DIVERSIFICATION: An EIT FOOD White Paper
- 2022
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Food systems transformation is critical for meeting our climate goals, and for ensuring individual health and food security by boosting resilience to external shocks. We face the challenge of producing enough nutritious food for our growing global population, whilst reducing our environmental impact at a time of increased competition and scarcity of resources. Protein diversification can play an important role in enhancing the resilience of food systems, in support of the EU’s main policy goals.
|
|
| 3. |
- Hallström, Elinor, et al.
(författare)
-
How much meat can we eat to sustain a healthy life and planet? The case of Swedish meat consumption
- 2015
-
Ingår i: International conference on Life Cycle Assessment as reference methodology for assessing supply chains and supporting global sustainability challenges : LCA FOR “FEEDING THE PLANET AND ENERGY FOR LIFE” - LCA FOR “FEEDING THE PLANET AND ENERGY FOR LIFE”. - 9788882863210 ; , s. 29-35
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainability of Swedish meat consumption is assessed from the perspectives of nutrition, health, climate and land use. Our results suggest that more sustainable food systems can be achieved via changes in Swedish meat consumption and that our multidimensional approach can be useful in identifying such changes.
|
|
| 4. |
- Haraldsson, Hördur, et al.
(författare)
-
The coming water shortage in the Jordan River Basin - Finding objectivity in a subjective problem
- 2002
-
Ingår i: Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. ; , s. 78-78
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Water distribution and availability in the Jordan region were studied. Self-sufficiency in water availability within the region is determined by the minimum amount of water used per person that is renewable. The objectives of the study were to identify the causes of water shortages and alternative use of water to prolong future supplies. According to our analysis, Israel and Jordan will overutilise their water source by a factor of 2 and Palestine by a factor of 1, by the year 2030. Water recycling has a potential in all the countries. The agricultural sector makes up the bulk of the water use (73-85%). Different water-saving techniques and alternative crop production can drastically reduce water use. Diverting away from agriculture and alternatively developing the industry sector would alleviate the immediate water shortages but will make the region dependent on the global grain market.
|
|
| 5. |
- Hirschnitz-Garbers, Martin, et al.
(författare)
-
Potentiale und Kernergebnisse der Simulationen von Ressourcen-schonung(spolitik) : Endbericht des Projekts „Modelle, Potentiale und Langfristszenarien für Ressourceneffizienz“ (Sim-Ress)
- 2018
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Human use of natural resources poses a great challenge to social-ecological and socio-technical sys- tems alike: supply risks, pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, waste generation on the one hand, but also issues of global justice and societal well-being on the other hand. In order to test potential im- pacts of developments and strategies relevant to resource policy, the SimRess project first identified trends that positively or negatively affect resource use in Germany and globally in the future. These trends were then incorporated into resource relevant scenarios (without as well as with assumptions of further resource and climate policy measures), which served as frames for simulating potential im- pacts via the econometric model GINFORS3 and the system dynamic model WORLD6 as well as through a soft-link of both models.The simulation results show on the one hand that continuing existing resource policy efforts on na- tional and international level will remain an important contribution to increasing resource productiv- ity and economic development. On the other hand, however, it was found that achieving targets for per-capita resource use, as called for by national and international sustainability scholars, needs a much greater level of ambition in national and international resource policy. This demands widening resource policy’s focus from increasing productivity in production structures to also tackling changes in consumption and investment patterns. Correspondingly, it seems important to expand the toolkit of resource policy instruments to much more integrate both economic and regulatory measures.
|
|
| 6. |
- Hirschnitz-Garbers, Martin, et al.
(författare)
-
System analysis for environmental policy – System thinking through system dynamic modelling and policy mixing as used in the SimRess project
- 2018
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Diverse and complex interactions as well as multi-actor systems characterise resource use and re- source policy. This makes system analysis a relevant tool to orient resource policy towards the long term. Analysing such complex systems requires systemic thinking, consideration of causal loops as well as time-lags and delays in system responses.In the SimRess project, system analysis encompassed participatory conceptual system modelling via involving external stakholders into identifying system boundaries and elements via causal loop dia- grams (CLDs). The CLDs were than reflected in the parametrisation of simulation models and the de- velopment of policy mixes.Only a limited number of stakeholders participated in two of the five workshops needed for a fully- fledged group modelling process. Therefore, the project team finalised internally the conceptual sys- tem model. Although this reduced ownership and transparency of the system model, the two work- shops provided relevant system knowledge for further modelling work and policy mix development.During policy mix development in SimRess, we needed to deviate from the theoretical concept of pol- icy mixing based on available project capacities and stakeholder decisions. On the one hand, under- standing and assessing cumulative effects of policy mixes challenged conceptual policy mix develop- ment and simulation capacities. On the other hand, stakeholder decisions impacted on the depth at which system analysis via simulation models could be undertaken.
|
|
| 7. |
- Kalen, Christer, et al.
(författare)
-
Future Demand and Supply of Food in China - A modeling attempt
- 2002
-
Ingår i: Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. ; , s. 85-85
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper focuses on future scenarios of demand and supply of grain in China. Economic development has been growing at a steady pace for decades and there are no signs of a decline in the near future. Projections of population trends show that the population will continue to expand until 2050, when a levelling- off is predicted. The growth of both population and economy drives industrialisation and urbanisation where area for settlement and infrastructure is demanded. Agricultural land is converted into urban area with high water consumption and pollution problems. People with a higher income diversify the diet, a diet that needs a larger area for production. The fundamental basis for self-subsistence in food production - agricultural land and clean water - is diminishing rapidly and may soon necessitate an extensive grain import. This study concludes that even if conservation measures are carried out China may face an extensive need for import of grain products.
|
|
| 8. |
- Kawahara, Takahiro, et al.
(författare)
-
Systems Analysis of the Impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami on Energy Supply System in Kamaishi-City
- 2013
-
Ingår i: [Host publication title missing]. - 9781935056119
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami hit coastal cities in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures of Tohoku Region devastating the energy supply system in the region. Electricity and fuel shortages caused severe problems in the city of Kamaishi varying from lack of mobility, communication, heating to reduced health conditions. This paper, aims to analyze the impacts of the earthquake and the tsunami on local energy supply system in Kamaishi City by; i) clarifying what energy services were in need when there was a shortage in energy supply right after the disasters by performing semi-structured interviews; and ii) identifying and analyzing causes and effects of the energy supply shortage at local level when the disasters occurred by applying systems thinking approach and causal loop diagramming methodology. Suggested alternative potential measures in tackling energy supply shortages and in preparing future disaster risk reduction plans are expected to be use of policy makers
|
|
| 9. |
- Kifle, Dejene, et al.
(författare)
-
A Simple Assessment of the Global Long Term Supply of the Rare Earth Elements by Using a System Dynamics Model
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Environment and Natural Resources Research. - 1927-0496. ; 3:1, s. 77-91
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Our simple dynamic-simulation model shows that the global supply of Rare Earth Elements is limited for meeting the future demands of new technologies. Unless improved recycling policies are adapted strategic elements may become scarce in the next half-century as a result of a “peak Rare Earths Elements” phenomenon. The model results also show that the market alone cannot solve the resource-inefficiency problem because the market’s instant and opportunistic nature impedes the long-term planning that is needed. Market mechanisms will only function if governments discourage wasteful practices by requiring recycling and long-term planning as conditions for the industry before the resource becomes too scarce. We conclude that technologies and industrial capacity for effectively recycling Rare Earth Elements will be in demand, and that effective recycling policy should be put in place soon to make the supply sustainable over the long-term
|
|
| 10. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
-
A stakeholder participated system science based sustainable development indicator framework
- 2012
-
Ingår i: [Host publication title missing]. - 9781627485784
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The growing interest in sustainable development indicators (SDI) has resulted in the development and application of various SDI frameworks in the past two decades. Identification and selection of “right” indicators with such frameworks are essential, in the sense that, it is the information from these indicators that will help policy and decision makers to better understand the efficiency, effectiveness and impacts of existing sustainable development policies, as well as to develop and apply new ones. To develop the “right” indicators with the existing SDI frameworks, however, is challenging due to following three issues: 1) The majority of indicators developed by existing SDI frameworks provide information only covering individual issues, sectors or topics from disconnected three “pillars” of sustainable development – namely; environment, economy and society. These indicators are pillar-specific and do not provide information on interlinkages between different pillars. The capital/domain-based framework, for instance, is centred on the economic and environmental pillars, where as causal frameworks (Pressure-State-Respond and its variations), are limited mostly to the environmental pillar of sustainable development. Moreover, most indicators developed by the existing SDI frameworks (except for, partly the casual frameworks) lack the explicit interlinkages and cause effect relationships between each other even if they cover the same pillar of sustainable development and are sorted out under same issue, sector or topic; 2) Cases where stakeholder participation in developing indicators with existing SDI frameworks are still limited and none of the frameworks considers a design for stakeholder participation process in its structure; and 3) The existing SDI frameworks do not consider the representation of the dynamic relationships between indicators. Indicators developed by these frameworks are static in nature and lack interactivity. They provide information about the system only considering the current situation, not changing conditions in time. That is why these indicators are intended to be measured regularly and frequently to gather the information for monitoring the performed progress in the past and also assess the current situation. To address the above three issues, a stakeholder participated systems science based SDI framework is proposed in this study. The proposed framework is, in fact, a generic group-modelling process and can incorporate all other types of existing SDI frameworks (i.e. theme based, sector based, causal base, goal base etc.). The proposed SDI framework considers: 1) broad stakeholder participation for enabling discussions on trans/inter/cross disciplinary issues and ensuring exchange of knowledge for a better understanding of complex sustainability issues; 2) systems thinking, conceptual modelling and systems analysis for introducing causal loop diagramming methodology as a common communication tool among stakeholders. Conceptual modelling over a series of group workshops and systems analysis will help to identify interlinkages (cause effect relations and feedback loops) for a better understanding of the complex human, nature and the support/build systems; and 3) system dynamics modelling and integrated scenario analysis for developing numerical models to capture the dynamic complexity, and to test and experiment alternative potential policy options under different future scenarios. Such models allow the user to see dynamic relationships between indicators as well as to analyse the relevance and sensitivity of indicators. Having the methodologies to deal with the above-mentioned issues in its structure, we believe, the proposed framework not only improves the identification, selection and monitoring processes of indicators, but it also serves as a stakeholder capacity enhancement tool for analysing dynamic complex sustainability issues.
|
|
| 11. |
- Koca, Deniz
(författare)
-
Accelerating Protein Diversification for Europe - Policy Brief
- 2023
-
Rapport (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- The paper outlines a comprehensive set of recommendations, advocating for a systems thinking approach and acknowledging the importance of engaging with the entire food system.Embracing protein diversification fosters innovation, has the potential to create substantial economic opportunities and position EU Member States at the forefront of rapidly evolving sectors spanning and integrating biotechnology, agriculture, and food processing. The adoption of a comprehensive strategy for protein diversification is not solely an option, but a necessity. It represents a transform- ative shift in how we produce and consume protein, aligning our actions with the imperative to feed a growing population while mitigating the adverse impacts of food production on the environment and human health.
|
|
| 12. |
- Koca, Deniz
(författare)
-
Impacts of Regional Climate Change on Swedish Forests: An Evaluation Using Process-based Regional Ecosystem Modelling Approach
- 2006
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The overall aim of this thesis was to provide a representative estimate of the potential impacts of climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations on Swedish forest ecosystems and the key ecosystem services they provide. In order to achieve this task, fi rst LPJ-GUESS, a process-based regional ecosystem modelling framework, was applied to explore how possible shifts in climatic zones according to a range of regional climate scenarios may lead to changes in the tree species distribution and composition, net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon sequestration capacity of potential natural ecosystems on species level and at the regional scale. Following that, LPJGUESS was employed to simulate and investigate further the interactions between different environmental drivers (temperature, CO2 and precipitation), and their individual and overall effects on community structure and ecosystem functioning of the natural ecosystems for a deeper understanding. Given that nearly all Swedish forest ecosystems are subject to human management and it is more of such management activities that have determined the species composition in these ecosystems rather than other natural factors, a forest management module was later implemented into LPJ-GUESS. The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing the simulated forest composition and growth with the observed forest inventory data from Swedish forest regions. Finally, modified version of LPJ-GUESS was applied to evaluate the possible consequences of alternative regional climate change scenarios and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on net primary productivity and stem wood volume increment of Swedish managed forests under existing silvicultural management practices. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) simulations showed that all climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. The model also predicted substantial increases in net primary productivity, especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st century. Model estimates of annual stem wood volume increment in managed forests were generally comparable with observations in all regions of Sweden. Again under all regional climate change scenarios the model predicted substantial increases in NPP and wood volume increment of managed forests, especially in central and northern Sweden due to combined effects of warmer and wetter climate and higher levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
|
|
| 13. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
-
Modelling regional climate change effects on potential natural ecosystems in Sweden
- 2006
-
Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 78:2-4, s. 381-406
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st century. The economy-oriented A2 emission scenario would lead to higher NPP and stronger carbon sinks according to the simulations than the environment-oriented B2 scenario.
|
|
| 14. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
-
Modelling the global primary extraction, supply, price and depletion of the extractable geological resources using the COBALT model.
- 2015
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global supply of cobalt was simulated by combining 3 different system dynamics models; BRONZE, PGM and STEEL. The present use of cobalt shows a low degree of recycling and systemic losses are significant. The reserves of cobalt are not very large (20-25 million ton extractable) as compared to metals like copper, zinc or iron, and after 2170 cobalt will have run out under a business-as-usual scenario. The present business-as-usual for cobalt use in society is in no way sustainable
|
|
| 15. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
-
The Rubber Industry and Extended Producers' Responsibility Framework: Opportunities and Threats for Swedish Rubber Manufacturers
- 2002
-
Ingår i: Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. ; , s. 88-89
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- An array of sustainable ways either to reduce the amount of waste rubber generated or for the re-utilisation of waste rubber products as different means of resources at the end of their service lives are provided and briefly evaluated from economic, social and environmental perspectives. Potential measures which the Swedish rubber industry and its major stakeholders can implement (within the context of extended producer’s responsibility framework) to increase source reduction, reuse, material recycling, and energy recovery from waste rubber are examined. Based on the concept of system dynamics, the links between different issues, possible problems arising from them and the solutions, and their relation to the sustainable waste rubber management system are analysed by understanding the cause and effect relationship between important parameters. A model is developed using Stella 5.1.1u to help the decision makers to evaluate different scenarios in Swedish waste rubber management.
|
|
| 16. |
- Koca, Deniz, et al.
(författare)
-
Use of Casual Loop Diagrams and Systems Analysis to Explore Alternative Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Seyhan River Basin, Turkey
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. - 9781935056102
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Within a UN Joint Programme titled “Enhancing the Capacity of Turkey to Adapt to Climate Change” a systems approach workshop was carried out in Adana, Turkey with broad stakeholder participation. The participants applied systems thinking approach, causal loop diagramming methodology and systems analysis to examine the potential impacts of projected climatic changes on natural ecosystems and socio-economical systems, as well as to explore the alternative adaptation strategies to cope with the potential negative outcomes of the climatic change in Seyhan River Basin. This paper synthesizes the outcomes of this workshop, identifies major climate change impacts and clarifies the priority adaptation measures for managing climate change vulnerability in the Seyhan River Basin. Availability and quality of water, and their implications for the region are considered to be the major priority area by the workshop participants. Results suggest that there is need for adaptive measures with an integrated water management perspective considering: • Availability and supply of ground/surface water to maintain natural ecosystems, the goods and services they provide, agricultural productivity and food security; • Efficient use of water for agricultural, residential and industrial purposes; • Drought and flood management; • Capacity building among the regional stakeholders in terms of climate change impacts and adaptation measures.
|
|
| 17. |
|
|
| 18. |
- Piccardo, Chiara, et al.
(författare)
-
Challenge-based, interdisciplinary learning for sustainability in doctoral education
- 2022
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education. - 1467-6370. ; 23:7, s. 1482-1503
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: Doctoral candidates possess specialized knowledge that could support sustainability transitions. Doctoral education, however, often focusses on discipline-specific topics and working methods, making it difficult to “see the bigger picture”. This summer school on wood construction gathered doctoral candidates from different fields to explore how solutions to complex sustainability issues could be found by working together across disciplines and by engaging multiple stakeholders. The purpose of this study is to report the pedagogical approaches taken and to understand whether these fostered the candidates’ ability to develop systemic solutions and professional competency. Design/methodology/approach: Twenty doctoral candidates from various backgrounds participated in a two-week summer school organized by a consortium of four universities. Interdisciplinary groups worked on real-life challenges using a systemic approach to co-create tangible solutions. To support the creation of socio-technical innovations, stakeholders and experts from different fields were involved. The participants completed two questionnaires during the summer school to help elucidate their learning experiences. Findings: The doctoral candidates showed strong willingness to cooperate across disciplines, though they found it important to connect this learning experience to their research. The candidates reported that the experience enhanced their ability to work in a multidisciplinary capacity. The experience identified a solid basis for interdisciplinary learning principles that could be replicated. Originality/value: The summer school focussed on an innovative learning experience based on a systems thinking approach and the development of interdisciplinary capacity in the research-business ecosystem.
|
|
| 19. |
|
|
| 20. |
- Ragnarsdottir, K. V., et al.
(författare)
-
Challenging the planetary boundaries I: Basic principles of an integrated model for phosphorous supply dynamics and global population size
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Applied Geochemistry. - : Elsevier BV. - 0883-2927. ; 26:Suppl., s. 303-306
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A simple mass balance model has been developed to assess the planetary boundary for P supply in relation to use by human society. Phosphorus sources used by humans are from fossil reserves. The model takes into account resource use rate and reserves, consumption, phosphate to food production, environmental degradation, waste and recycling. Various policy scenarios are tested from current end of pipe solutions to clean production and pollution prevention, sustainable consumption and production polices and sustainable population policy. In order to get an overview of possible future scenarios it is necessary to close nutrient cycles and formulate a sustainable population policy. The outcome of systems dynamics based modeling for four scenarios are given in a sister paper in this issue. Results show that effective population and P recycling policies are crucial to avoid world hunger. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 21. |
|
|
| 22. |
- Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala, et al.
(författare)
-
Substitution of metals in times of potential supply limitations: What are the mitigation options and limitations?
- 2015
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global production rates of metals vary from iron at 1.4 billion ton per year to platinum with 200 ton per year. Resource scarcity starts to manifest itself in rising prices and supply limitations, and metal substitution has been a major argument among economists when putting considerations of resource scarcity aside. Here we investigate the potential limits to metal substitution. Present consumption, recycling and irreversible loss rates, as well as the metal balances and properties are examined. Our findings suggest that the major limitations and issues to substitution are: (1) Physical limitations in terms of metal available; it can only take place by a more abundant metal taking partly the place of a metal produced in smaller amounts; (2) Functional limitations based of differences in physical and chemical properties; and (3) By considering substitution options often more energy is needded and larger CO2 emissions occur. Substitution of metals is therefore not going to take the threat of scarcity away; it can only delay us in adapting to the level of sustainable use. The longer we wait, the more we risk squandering resources before we properly conserve our resources from becoming scarce
|
|
| 23. |
- Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala, et al.
(författare)
-
Time of scarcity horizons for technology metals, precious metals, base metals, superalloy metals, battery technology metals and infrastructure materials.
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Accelerating the Resource Revolution - WRF 2017 Meeting Report : Geneva, October 24 – 25, 2017 - Geneva, October 24 – 25, 2017. - 9783906177182
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have built a system dynamics model, WORLD6, that takes into account population, energy extraction, production and need, aspects social behaviour, material and metals recycling and important links to the economy. The model is ground-truthed by comparing with actual supply per person from 1900 till 2015 and run until 2400. Primary scarcity metrics are supply per person and year and stock-in-use per person. Results show that technology metals (antimony, bismuth, selenium, indium, gallium and germanium) will all peak in production before 2100. Precious metals will peak in production earlier, or before 2050. The base metals (copper, zinc) will have a roughly stable supply from 2050 till 2300, whereas the production of lead will be approximately the same from 1960 till 2400 and that of nickel will peak before 2050. The superalloy metals (molybdenum, niobium) will have a stable supply from around 2050 till 2400, but cobalt will be stable from 2100 till 2300 and then decline. The battery metal lithium will peak in production 2010, cobalt will be stable (as stated above) and rare earth´s will rise in use, particularly after 2100. When considering service capital per person (concrete, iron, aluminium, copper) the model predicts steady rise throughout the 21st century, with stabilization in the 22nd century. Our dynamic WORLD6 modelling results give clear indications that for the most important metals that are used in modern technology and in societal infrastructure there are limits and therefore careful circular economy programmes are necessary at the level of every nation so that metals do not become the centre of future conflicts.
|
|
| 24. |
|
|
| 25. |
|
|
