| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 7. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 8. |
- Maccari, Maria Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Activated phosphoinositide 3-kinase δ syndrome: Update from the ESID Registry and comparison with other autoimmune-lymphoproliferative inborn errors of immunity.
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology. - 1097-6825. ; 152:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Activated phosphoinositide-3-kinase δ syndrome (APDS) is an inborn error of immunity (IEI) with infection susceptibility and immune dysregulation, clinically overlapping with other conditions. Management depends on disease evolution, but predictors of severe disease are lacking.This study sought to report the extended spectrum of disease manifestations in APDS1 versus APDS2; compare these to CTLA4 deficiency, NFKB1 deficiency, and STAT3 gain-of-function (GOF) disease; and identify predictors of severity in APDS.Data was collected from the ESID (European Society for Immunodeficiencies)-APDS registry and was compared with published cohorts of the other IEIs.The analysis of 170 patients with APDS outlines high penetrance and early onset of APDS compared to the other IEIs. The large clinical heterogeneity even in individuals with the same PIK3CD variant E1021K illustrates how poorly the genotype predicts the disease phenotype and course. The high clinical overlap between APDS and the other investigated IEIs suggests relevant pathophysiological convergence of the affected pathways. Preferentially affected organ systems indicate specific pathophysiology: bronchiectasis is typical of APDS1; interstitial lung disease and enteropathy are more common in STAT3 GOF and CTLA4 deficiency. Endocrinopathies are most frequent in STAT3 GOF, but growth impairment is also common, particularly in APDS2. Early clinical presentation is a risk factor for severe disease in APDS.APDS illustrates how a single genetic variant can result in a diverse autoimmune-lymphoproliferative phenotype. Overlap with other IEIs is substantial. Some specific features distinguish APDS1 from APDS2. Early onset is a risk factor for severe disease course calling for specific treatment studies in younger patients.
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| 9. |
- Kumarathunge, Dushan P., et al.
(författare)
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Acclimation and adaptation components of the temperature dependence of plant photosynthesis at the global scale
- 2019
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Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 222:2, s. 768-784
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The temperature response of photosynthesis is one of the key factors determining predicted responses to warming in global vegetation models (GVMs). The response may vary geographically, owing to genetic adaptation to climate, and temporally, as a result of acclimation to changes in ambient temperature. Our goal was to develop a robust quantitative global model representing acclimation and adaptation of photosynthetic temperature responses.We quantified and modelled key mechanisms responsible for photosynthetic temperature acclimation and adaptation using a global dataset of photosynthetic CO2 response curves, including data from 141 C3 species from tropical rainforest to Arctic tundra. We separated temperature acclimation and adaptation processes by considering seasonal and common-garden datasets, respectively.The observed global variation in the temperature optimum of photosynthesis was primarily explained by biochemical limitations to photosynthesis, rather than stomatal conductance or respiration. We found acclimation to growth temperature to be a stronger driver of this variation than adaptation to temperature at climate of origin.We developed a summary model to represent photosynthetic temperature responses and showed that it predicted the observed global variation in optimal temperatures with high accuracy. This novel algorithm should enable improved prediction of the function of global ecosystems in a warming climate.
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| 10. |
- Vowles, Kevin E., et al.
(författare)
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Initial evaluation of the Chronic Pain Acceptance Questionnaire-2
- 2020
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Ingår i: European Journal of Pain. - : WILEY. - 1090-3801 .- 1532-2149. ; 24:10, s. 2027-2036
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Greater acceptance of chronic pain is associated with lesser levels of pain-related distress and disability and better overall functioning. Pain acceptance is most often assessed using the Chronic Pain Acceptance Questionnaire (CPAQ), which includes both an eight-item short form (CPAQ-8) and a twenty item parent measure (CPAQ-20). This study derived a two-item CPAQ for use in busy clinical settings and for repeated measurement during treatment, the CPAQ-2. An Item Response Theory (IRT) approach was used to identify the strongest items from the CPAQ-20, one from each of its two subscales. Next, regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the utility of the CPAQ-2 by examining variance accounted for in the CPAQ-8, CPAQ-20, and in measures of depression, pain-related fear, physical disability, and psychosocial disability. Four clinical databases were combined (N = 1,776) for the analyses. Items 9 and 14 were identified as the strongest CPAQ-20 items in the IRT analyses. The sum score of these two items accounted for over 60% of the variance in the CPAQ-8 and CPAQ-20. Furthermore, this score accounted for significant variance in measures of depression, pain-related fear, physical disability, and psychosocial disability after controlling for data collection method (i.e. in clinic or online), participant age, education, pain duration and usual pain. Finally, the amount of variance accounted for by the CPAQ-2 was comparable to that accounted for by both the CPAQ-8 and CPAQ-20. These results provide initial support for the CPAQ-2 and suggest that it is well-suited as a brief assessment of chronic pain acceptance. Significance The most frequently used measure of pain acceptance is the CPAQ, which includes both an eight-item short form, the CPAQ-8, and a longer twenty item parent measure, the CPAQ-20. The present study sought to derive a two-item measure of the CPAQ for use in busy clinical settings and for repeated measurement during treatment, the CPAQ-2. An IRT approach was used to identify the strongest items from the CPAQ-20, one from each of its two subscales in a large sample of 1,776 individuals with chronic pain. The two item measure accounted for significant variance in measures of depression, pain-related fear, physical disability, and psychosocial disability. The brief measure will be useful in assessing pain acceptance in busy clinical setting and longitudinal designs.
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| 11. |
- Vowles, Kevin E., et al.
(författare)
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The Pain Anxiety Symptom Scale : Initial Development and Evaluation of 4 and 8 Item Short Forms
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Pain. - : Elsevier. - 1526-5900 .- 1528-8447. ; 25:1, s. 176-186
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Elevated levels of anxiety in relation to chronic pain have been consistently associated with greater distress and disability. Thus, accurate measurement of pain-related anxiety is an important requirement in modern pain services. The Pain Anxiety Symptom Scale (PASS) was introduced over 30 years ago, with a shortened 20-item version introduced 10 years later. Both versions of the PASS were derived using Principal Components Analysis, an established method of measure development with roots in classical test theory. Item Response Theory (IRT) is a complementary approach to measure development that can reduce the number of items needed and maximize item utility with minimal loss of statistical and clinical information. The present study used IRT to shorten the 20-item PASS (PASS-20) in a large sample of people with chronic pain (N = 2,669). Two shortened versions were evaluated, 1 composed of the single best-performing item from each of its 4 subscales (PASS-4) and the other with the 2 best-performing items from each subscale (PASS-8). Several supplementary analyses were performed, including comparative item convergence evaluations based on sample characteristics (ie, female or male sex; clinical or online sample), factor invariance testing, and criterion validity evaluation of the 4, 8, and 20-item versions of the PASS in hierarchical regression models predicting pain-related distress and interference. Overall, both shortened PASS versions performed adequately across these supplemental tests, although the PASS-4 had more consistent item convergence between samples, stronger evidence for factor invariance, and accounted for 83% of the variance accounted for by the PASS-20% and 92% of the variance accounted for by the PASS-8 in criterion variables. Consequently, the PASS-4 is recommended for use in situations where a briefer evaluation of pain-related anxiety is appropriate.
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