| 1. |
- Amaral, Andre F. S., et al.
(author)
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Chronic airflow obstruction and ambient particulate air pollution
- 2021
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In: Thorax. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0040-6376 .- 1468-3296. ; 76:12, s. 1236-1241
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Smoking is the most well-established cause of chronic airflow obstruction (CAO) but particulate air pollution and poverty have also been implicated. We regressed sex-specific prevalence of CAO from 41 Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study sites against smoking prevalence from the same study, the gross national income per capita and the local annual mean level of ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) using negative binomial regression. The prevalence of CAO was not independently associated with PM2.5 but was strongly associated with smoking and was also associated with poverty. Strengthening tobacco control and improved understanding of the link between CAO and poverty should be prioritised.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Brew, Bronwyn K, et al.
(author)
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Breastfeeding, asthma, and allergy : a tale of two cities
- 2012
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In: Pediatric Allergy and Immunology. - Stockholm : Karolinska Institutet, Dept of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics. - 0905-6157. ; 23:1, s. 75-82
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The effect of breastfeeding duration on subsequent asthma and allergy remains the subject of much controversy. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether differences in study design or disease-related exposure modification were the cause of the differences in study findings. METHOD: The data from two cohorts, the Childhood Asthma Prevention Study (CAPS) from Australia and the Barn Allergi Miljo Stockholm cohort from Sweden, which had reported different findings on the association between breastfeeding and asthma, were combined. For this analysis, the definitions for breastfeeding, asthma, and allergy were harmonized. Subjects were included if they had at least one parent with wheeze or asthma and had a gestational age of more than 36 wks (combined n = 882). The risk of disease-related exposure modification was assessed using survival analysis. RESULTS: Breastfeeding reduced the risk of asthma at 4/5 and 8 yrs of age in children with a family history of asthma. The effect was stronger in the Swedish cohort. Breastfeeding had no effect on the prevalence of sensitization to inhaled allergens in this cohort with a family history of asthma but was a risk factor for sensitization to cow's milk, peanuts, and eggs in the CAPS cohort at 4/5 yrs and in the combined cohort at 8 yrs. There was no evidence to support the existence of disease-related exposure modification in either cohort. CONCLUSION: These findings point to the importance of harmonization of features of study design, including subject selection criteria and variable definitions, in resolving epidemiological controversies such as those surrounding the impact of breastfeeding on asthma and allergic sensitization.
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| 4. |
- Brunet-Ratnasingham, Elsa, et al.
(author)
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Sustained IFN signaling is associated with delayed development of SARS-CoV-2-specific immunity.
- 2024
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In: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723. ; 15:1, s. 4177-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Plasma RNAemia, delayed antibody responses and inflammation predict COVID-19 outcomes, but the mechanisms underlying these immunovirological patterns are poorly understood. We profile 782 longitudinal plasma samples from 318 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Integrated analysis using k-means reveals four patient clusters in a discovery cohort: mechanically ventilated critically-ill cases are subdivided into good prognosis and high-fatality clusters (reproduced in a validation cohort), while non-critical survivors segregate into high and low early antibody responders. Only the high-fatality cluster is enriched for transcriptomic signatures associated with COVID-19 severity, and each cluster has distinct RBD-specific antibody elicitation kinetics. Both critical and non-critical clusters with delayed antibody responses exhibit sustained IFN signatures, which negatively correlate with contemporaneous RBD-specific IgG levels and absolute SARS-CoV-2-specific B and CD4+ T cell frequencies. These data suggest that the "Interferon paradox" previously described in murine LCMV models is operative in COVID-19, with excessive IFN signaling delaying development of adaptive virus-specific immunity.
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| 5. |
- Burney, Peter, et al.
(author)
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Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality and prevalence : the associations with smoking and poverty-a BOLD analysis
- 2014
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In: Thorax. - : BMJ. - 0040-6376 .- 1468-3296. ; 69:5, s. 465-473
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a commonly reported cause of death and associated with smoking. However, COPD mortality is high in poor countries with low smoking rates. Spirometric restriction predicts mortality better than airflow obstruction, suggesting that the prevalence of restriction could explain mortality rates attributed to COPD. We have studied associations between mortality from COPD and low lung function, and between both lung function and death rates and cigarette consumption and gross national income per capita (GNI). Methods National COPD mortality rates were regressed against the prevalence of airflow obstruction and spirometric restriction in 22 Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study sites and against GNI, and national smoking prevalence. The prevalence of airflow obstruction and spirometric restriction in the BOLD sites were regressed against GNI and mean pack years smoked. Results National COPD mortality rates were more strongly associated with spirometric restriction in the BOLD sites (<60 years: men r(s)=0.73, p=0.0001; women r(s)=0.90, p<0.0001; 60+ years: men r(s)=0.63, p=0.0022; women r(s)=0.37, p=0.1) than obstruction (<60 years: men r(s)=0.28, p=0.20; women r(s)=0.17, p<0.46; 60+ years: men r(s)=0.28, p=0.23; women r(s)=0.22, p=0.33). Obstruction increased with mean pack years smoked, but COPD mortality fell with increased cigarette consumption and rose rapidly as GNI fell below US$ 15 000. Prevalence of restriction was not associated with smoking but also increased rapidly as GNI fell below US$ 15 000. Conclusions Smoking remains the single most important cause of obstruction but a high prevalence of restriction associated with poverty could explain the high 'COPD' mortality in poor countries.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Burney, Peter, et al.
(author)
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Prevalence and Population-Attributable Risk for Chronic Airflow Obstruction in a Large Multinational Study
- 2021
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In: American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. - 1073-449X .- 1535-4970. ; 203:11, s. 1353-1365
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rationale: The Global Burden of Disease program identified smoking and ambient and household air pollution as the main drivers of death and disability from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).Objectives: To estimate the attributable risk of chronic airflow obstruction (CAO), a quantifiable characteristic of COPD, due to several risk factors.Methods: The Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study is a cross-sectional study of adults, aged ≥40, in a globally distributed sample of 41 urban and rural sites. Based on data from 28,459 participants, we estimated the prevalence of CAO, defined as a postbronchodilator FEV1-to-FVC ratio less than the lower limit of normal, and the relative risks associated with different risk factors. Local relative risks were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical model borrowing information from across sites. From these relative risks and the prevalence of risk factors, we estimated local population attributable risks.Measurements and Main Results: The mean prevalence of CAO was 11.2% in men and 8.6% in women. The mean population attributable risk for smoking was 5.1% in men and 2.2% in women. The next most influential risk factors were poor education levels, working in a dusty job for ≥10 years, low body mass index, and a history of tuberculosis. The risk of CAO attributable to the different risk factors varied across sites.Conclusions: Although smoking remains the most important risk factor for CAO, in some areas, poor education, low body mass index, and passive smoking are of greater importance. Dusty occupations and tuberculosis are important risk factors at some sites.
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| 8. |
- Coton, Sonia, et al.
(author)
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Severity of Airflow Obstruction in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) : Proposal for a New Classification
- 2017
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In: COPD. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1541-2555 .- 1541-2563. ; 14:5, s. 469-475
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Current classifications of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) severity are complex and do not grade levels of obstruction. Obstruction is a simpler construct and independent of ethnicity. We constructed an index of obstruction severity based on the FEV1/FVC ratio, with cut-points dividing the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study population into four similarly sized strata to those created by the GOLD criteria that uses FEV1. Wemeasured the agreement between classifications and the validity of the FEV1-based classification in identifying the level of obstruction as defined by the new groupings. We compared the strengths of association of each classification with quality of life (QoL), MRC dyspnoea score and the self-reported exacerbation rate. Agreement between classifications was only fair. FEV1-based criteria for moderate COPD identified only 79% of those with moderate obstruction and misclassified half of the participants with mild obstruction as having more severe COPD. Both scales were equally strongly associated with QoL, exertional dyspnoea and respiratory exacerbations. Severity assessed using the FEV1/FVC ratio is only in moderate agreement with the severity assessed using FEV1 but is equally strongly associated with other outcomes. Severity assessed using the FEV1/FVC ratio is likely to be independent of ethnicity.
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| 9. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 10. |
- Garden, Frances L, et al.
(author)
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Infant and early childhood dietary predictors of overweight at age 8 years in the CAPS population
- 2011
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In: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - Stockholm : Karolinska Institutet, Dept of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics. - 1476-5640 .- 0954-3007.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Programs to address obesity are a high priority for public policy especially for young children. Research into dietary determinants of obesity is challenging but important for rational planning of interventions to prevent obesity, given that both diet and energy expenditure influence weight status. We investigated whether early life dietary factors were predictive of weight status at 8 years in a cohort of Australian children. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We used data from the Childhood Asthma Prevention Study-a birth cohort at high risk of asthma. Dietary data (3-day weighed food records) were collected at 18 months and height, weight and waist circumference were collected at 8 years. We assessed the relationship between dietary predictor variables and measures of adiposity using linear regression. RESULTS: Intakes of protein, meat and fruit at age 18 months were positively associated with measures of adiposity at age 8 years, namely, body mass index and/or waist circumference. We also showed a significant negative relationship between these measures of adiposity at 8 years and intake at 18 months of dairy foods as a percent of total energy, and intake of energy dense cereal-based foods such as cookies and crackers. CONCLUSIONS: This birth cohort study with rigorous design, measures and analyses, has shown a number of associations between early dietary intake and subsequent adiposity that contribute to the growing evidence base in this important field.
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| 11. |
- Janson, Christer, et al.
(author)
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The impact of COPD on health status : findings from the BOLD study
- 2013
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In: European Respiratory Journal. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 0903-1936 .- 1399-3003. ; 42:6, s. 1472-1483
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The aim of this study was to describe the impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on health status in the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) populations. We conducted a cross-sectional, general population-based survey in 11 985 subjects from 17 countries. We measured spirometric lung function and assessed health status using the Short Form 12 questionnaire. The physical and mental health component scores were calculated. Subjects with COPD (post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity <0.70, n=2269) had lower physical component scores (44 +/- 10 versus 48 +/- 10 units, p<0.0001) and mental health component scores (51 +/- 10 versus 52 +/- 10 units, p=0.005) than subjects without COPD. The effect of reported heart disease, hypertension and diabetes on physical health component scores (-3 to -4 units) was considerably less than the effect of COPD Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease grade 3 (-8 units) or 4 (-11 units). Dyspnoea was the most important determinant of a low physical and mental health component scores. In addition, lower forced expiratory volume in 1 s, chronic cough, chronic phlegm and the presence of comorbidities were all associated with a lower physical health component score. COPD is associated with poorer health status but the effect is stronger on the physical than the mental aspects of health status. Severe COPD has a greater negative impact on health status than self-reported cardiovascular disease and diabetes.
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| 12. |
- Knox-Brown, Ben, et al.
(author)
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The association of spirometric small airways obstruction with respiratory symptoms, cardiometabolic diseases, and quality of life : results from the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study
- 2023
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In: Respiratory Research. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1465-9921 .- 1465-993X. ; 24:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundSpirometric small airways obstruction (SAO) is common in the general population. Whether spirometric SAO is associated with respiratory symptoms, cardiometabolic diseases, and quality of life (QoL) is unknown.MethodsUsing data from the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study (N = 21,594), we defined spirometric SAO as the mean forced expiratory flow rate between 25 and 75% of the FVC (FEF25-75) less than the lower limit of normal (LLN) or the forced expiratory volume in 3 s to FVC ratio (FEV3/FVC) less than the LLN. We analysed data on respiratory symptoms, cardiometabolic diseases, and QoL collected using standardised questionnaires. We assessed the associations with spirometric SAO using multivariable regression models, and pooled site estimates using random effects meta-analysis. We conducted identical analyses for isolated spirometric SAO (i.e. with FEV1/FVC ≥ LLN).ResultsAlmost a fifth of the participants had spirometric SAO (19% for FEF25-75; 17% for FEV3/FVC). Using FEF25-75, spirometric SAO was associated with dyspnoea (OR = 2.16, 95% CI 1.77–2.70), chronic cough (OR = 2.56, 95% CI 2.08–3.15), chronic phlegm (OR = 2.29, 95% CI 1.77–4.05), wheeze (OR = 2.87, 95% CI 2.50–3.40) and cardiovascular disease (OR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.11–1.52), but not hypertension or diabetes. Spirometric SAO was associated with worse physical and mental QoL. These associations were similar for FEV3/FVC. Isolated spirometric SAO (10% for FEF25-75; 6% for FEV3/FVC), was also associated with respiratory symptoms and cardiovascular disease.ConclusionSpirometric SAO is associated with respiratory symptoms, cardiovascular disease, and QoL. Consideration should be given to the measurement of FEF25-75 and FEV3/FVC, in addition to traditional spirometry parameters.
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| 13. |
- Morawska, Lidia, et al.
(author)
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COVID-19 and airborne transmission : science rejected, lives lost : can society do better?
- 2023
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In: Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1537-6591. ; 76:10, s. 1854-1859
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This is an account that should be heard of an important struggle: the struggle of a large group of experts who came together at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic to warn the world about the risk of airborne transmission and the consequences of ignoring it. We alerted the World Health Organization (WHO) about the potential significance of the airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the urgent need to control it, but our concerns were dismissed. Here we describe how this happened and the consequences. We hope that by reporting this story, we can raise awareness of the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and the need to be open to new evidence, and to prevent it from happening again. Acknowledgement of an issue and the emergence of new evidence related to it, is the first necessary step towards finding effective mitigation solutions.
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| 14. |
- Morawska, Lidia, et al.
(author)
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How can airborne transmission of COVID-19 indoors be minimised?
- 2020
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In: Environment International. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-6750 .- 0160-4120. ; 142
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- During the rapid rise in COVID-19 illnesses and deaths globally, and notwithstanding recommended precautions, questions are voiced about routes of transmission for this pandemic disease. Inhaling small airborne droplets is probable as a third route of infection, in addition to more widely recognized transmission via larger respiratory droplets and direct contact with infected people or contaminated surfaces. While uncertainties remain regarding the relative contributions of the different transmission pathways, we argue that existing evidence is sufficiently strong to warrant engineering controls targeting airborne transmission as part of an overall strategy to limit infection risk indoors. Appropriate building engineering controls include sufficient and effective ventilation, possibly enhanced by particle filtration and air disinfection, avoiding air recirculation and avoiding overcrowding. Often, such measures can be easily implemented and without much cost, but if only they are recognised as significant in contributing to infection control goals. We believe that the use of engineering controls in public buildings, including hospitals, shops, offices, schools, kindergartens, libraries, restaurants, cruise ships, elevators, conference rooms or public transport, in parallel with effective application of other controls (including isolation and quarantine, social distancing and hand hygiene), would be an additional important measure globally to reduce the likelihood of transmission and thereby protect healthcare workers, patients and the general public.
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| 15. |
- Morawska, Lidia, et al.
(author)
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How to build Urbanome, the genome of the city?
- 2022
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In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 810
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The world's population is shifting to the cities, and consequently, cities worldwide are growing in number and in size. Cities are complex systems, making it extremely difficult to build and run cities in a way that all the elements of the system operate in harmony. Recently a concept of urbanome, the genome of the city was proposed to address this complexity. Here we first explore this concept and analogy, taking advantage of the potential of other ‘omics, modern data collection techniques, Big Data analysis methods and a transdisciplinary approach. Then, we propose a theoretical approach to build the urbanome as a means of quantifying and qualifying population outcomes, being a function of the form of an urban area including the built environment, the physical and social services it provides, and the population density.
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| 16. |
- Morawska, Lidia, et al.
(author)
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Mandating indoor air quality for public buildings : if some countries lead by example, standards may increasingly become normalized
- 2024
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In: Science. - 0036-8075. ; 383:6690, s. 1418-1420
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- People living in urban and industrialized societies, which are expanding globally, spend more than 90% of their time in the indoor environment, breathing indoor air (IA). Despite decades of research and advocacy, most countries do not have legislated indoor air quality (IAQ) performance standards for public spaces that address concentration levels of IA pollutants. Few building codes address operation, maintenance, and retrofitting, and most do not focus on airborne disease transmission. But the COVID-19 pandemic has made all levels of society, from community members to decision-makers, realize the importance of IAQ for human health, wellbeing, productivity, and learning. We propose that IAQ standards be mandatory for public spaces. Although enforcement of IAQ performance standards in homes is not possible, homes must be designed and equipped so that they could meet the standards.For the past two decades, scientists have called for national IAQ standards and laws to be established (2), but so far, little action has been taken. The approach to IA contrasts sharply with outdoor air, for which quality is regulated and monitored and compliance with regulations is enforced. The World Health Organization (WHO) Global Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) published in 2021 provide recommendations for concentration levels of six pollutants and their averaging times (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, CO, and O3) and apply to both outdoor air and IA (3).In cases for which IAQ standard and guideline values were established by national or association working groups, the outcomes were inconsistent; often the criteria for the same parameter differed by orders of magnitude. The reasons cited for limited progress include different criteria in the selection of the critical study, in the starting point, and in the derivation procedure; the complex political, social, and legislative situation regarding IAQ; the lack of an open, systematic, and harmonized approach; and that establishing an IAQ standard is always the result of a compromise between scientific knowledge and political will. Because of the heterogenous landscape of approaches needed, such barriers remain intact despite the considerable IAQ research and evidence base developed over the past decades.
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| 17. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 18. |
- Näsström, Elin, et al.
(author)
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Reproducible diagnostic metabolites in plasma from typhoid fever patients in Asia and Africa
- 2017
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In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications. - 2050-084X. ; 6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Salmonella Typhi is the causative agent of typhoid. Typhoid is diagnosed by blood culture, a method that lacks sensitivity, portability and speed. We have previously shown that specific metabolomic profiles can be detected in the blood of typhoid patients from Nepal (Nasstrom et al., 2014). Here, we performed mass spectrometry on plasma from Bangladeshi and Senegalese patients with culture confirmed typhoid fever, clinically suspected typhoid, and other febrile diseases including malaria. After applying supervised pattern recognition modelling, we could significantly distinguish metabolite profiles in plasma from the culture confirmed typhoid patients. After comparing the direction of change and degree of multivariate significance, we identified 24 metabolites that were consistently up- or down regulated in a further Bangladeshi/Senegalese validation cohort, and the Nepali cohort from our previous work. We have identified and validated a metabolite panel that can distinguish typhoid from other febrile diseases, providing a new approach for typhoid diagnostics.
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| 19. |
- Ramasamy, Adaikalavan, et al.
(author)
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Genome-Wide Association Studies of Asthma in Population-Based Cohorts Confirm Known and Suggested Loci and Identify an Additional Association near HLA
- 2012
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In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 7:9, s. e44008-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rationale: Asthma has substantial morbidity and mortality and a strong genetic component, but identification of genetic risk factors is limited by availability of suitable studies. Objectives: To test if population-based cohorts with self-reported physician-diagnosed asthma and genome-wide association (GWA) data could be used to validate known associations with asthma and identify novel associations. Methods: The APCAT (Analysis in Population-based Cohorts of Asthma Traits) consortium consists of 1,716 individuals with asthma and 16,888 healthy controls from six European-descent population-based cohorts. We examined associations in APCAT of thirteen variants previously reported as genome-wide significant (P < 5x10(-8)) and three variants reported as suggestive (P < 5 x 10(-7)). We also searched for novel associations in APCAT (Stage 1) and followed-up the most promising variants in 4,035 asthmatics and 11,251 healthy controls (Stage 2). Finally, we conducted the first genome-wide screen for interactions with smoking or hay fever. Main Results: We observed association in the same direction for all thirteen previously reported variants and nominally replicated ten of them. One variant that was previously suggestive, rs11071559 in RORA, now reaches genome-wide significance when combined with our data (P = 2.4x10(-9)). We also identified two genome-wide significant associations: rs13408661 near IL1RL1/IL18R1 (PStage1+Stage2 = 1.1x10(-9)), which is correlated with a variant recently shown to be associated with asthma (rs3771180), and rs9268516 in the HLA region (PStage1+Stage2 = 1.1x10(-8)), which appears to be independent of previously reported associations in this locus. Finally, we found no strong evidence for gene-environment interactions with smoking or hay fever status. Conclusions: Population-based cohorts with simple asthma phenotypes represent a valuable and largely untapped resource for genetic studies of asthma.
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| 20. |
- Sator, Lea, et al.
(author)
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Overdiagnosis of COPD in Subjects With Unobstructed Spirometry A BOLD Analysis
- 2019
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In: Chest. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-3692 .- 1931-3543. ; 156:2, s. 277-288
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: There are several reports on underdiagnosis of COPD, while little is known about COPD overdiagnosis and overtreatment. We describe the overdiagnosis and the prevalence of spirometrically defined false positive COPD, as well as their relationship with overtreatment across 23 population samples in 20 countries participating in the BOLD Study between 2003 and 2012.METHODS: A false positive diagnosis of COPD was considered when participants reported a doctor's diagnosis of COPD, but postbronchodilator spirometry was unobstructed (FEV1/FVC > LLN). Additional analyses were performed using the fixed ratio criterion (FEV1/FVC < 0.7).RESULTS: Among 16,177 participants, 919 (5.7%) reported a previous medical diagnosis of COPD. Postbronchodilator spirometry was unobstructed in 569 subjects (61.9%): false positive COPD. A similar rate of overdiagnosis was seen when using the fixed ratio criterion (55.3%). In a subgroup analysis excluding participants who reported a diagnosis of "chronic bronchitis" or "emphysema" (n = 220), 37.7% had no airflow limitation. The site-specific prevalence of false positive COPD varied greatly, from 1.9% in low- to middle-income countries to 4.9% in high-income countries. In multivariate analysis, overdiagnosis was more common among women, and was associated with higher education; former and current smoking; the presence of wheeze, cough, and phlegm; and concomitant medical diagnosis of asthma or heart disease. Among the subjects with false positive COPD, 45.7% reported current use of respiratory medication. Excluding patients with reported asthma, 34.4% of those with normal spirometry still used a respiratory medication.CONCLUSIONS: False positive COPD is frequent. This might expose nonobstructed subjects to possible adverse effects of respiratory medication.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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