| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 3. |
- Andersson, Hanna, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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The negative footprint illusion is exacerbated by the numerosity of environment-friendly additions: unveiling the underpinning mechanisms
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Cognitive Psychology. - : Taylor & Francis. - 2044-5911 .- 2044-592X. ; 36:2, s. 295-307
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The addition of environmentally friendly items to conventional items sometimes leads people to believe that the carbon footprint of the entire set decreases rather than increases. This negative footprint illusion is supposedly underpinned by an averaging bias: people base environmental impact estimates not on the total impact of items but on their average. Here, we found that the illusion's magnitude increased with the addition of a greater number of "green" items when the number of conventional items remained constant (Studies 1 and 2), supporting the averaging-bias account. We challenged this account by testing what happens when the number of items in the conventional and "green" categories vary while holding the ratio between the two categories constant (Study 3). At odds with the averaging-bias account, the magnitude of the illusion increased as the category size increased, revealing a category-size bias, and raising questions about the interplay between these biases in the illusion.
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| 4. |
- Dahal, Prabin, et al.
(författare)
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Competing risk events in antimalarial drug trials in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria : a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: Malaria Journal. - : BMC. - 1475-2875. ; 18
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.Methods: Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.Results: Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (rho): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [rho: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.Conclusions: The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.
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| 5. |
- Dahal, Prabin, et al.
(författare)
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Temporal distribution of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence following artemisinin-based combination therapy : an individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2022
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Ingår i: Malaria Journal. - : Springer Nature. - 1475-2875. ; 21
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The duration of trial follow-up affects the ability to detect recrudescent infections following anti-malarial treatment. The aim of this study was to explore the proportions of recrudescent parasitaemia as ascribed by genotyping captured at various follow-up time-points in treatment efficacy trials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria.Methods: Individual patient data from 83 anti-malarial efficacy studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) repository with at least 28 days follow-up were available. The temporal and cumulative distributions of recrudescence were characterized using a Cox regression model with shared frailty on study-sites. Fractional polynomials were used to capture non-linear instantaneous hazard. The area under the density curve (AUC) of the constructed distribution was used to estimate the optimal follow-up period for capturing a P. falciparum malaria recrudescence. Simulation studies were conducted based on the constructed distributions to quantify the absolute overestimation in efficacy due to sub-optimal follow-up.Results: Overall, 3703 recurrent infections were detected in 60 studies conducted in Africa (15,512 children aged < 5 years) and 23 studies conducted in Asia and South America (5272 patients of all ages). Using molecular genotyping, 519 (14.0%) recurrences were ascribed as recrudescent infections. A 28 day artemether-lumefantrine (AL) efficacy trial would not have detected 58% [95% confidence interval (CI) 47-74%] of recrudescences in African children and 32% [95% CI 15-45%] in patients of all ages in Asia/South America. The corresponding estimate following a 42 day dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) efficacy trial in Africa was 47% [95% CI 19-90%] in children under 5 years old treated with > 48 mg/kg total piperaquine (PIP) dose and 9% [95% CI 0-22%] in those treated with <= 48 mg/kg PIP dose. In absolute terms, the simulation study found that trials limited to 28 days follow-up following AL underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.8 percentage points compared to day 63 estimates and those limited to 42 days following DP underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.0 percentage points compared to day 42 estimates. The analysis was limited by few clinical trials following patients for longer than 42 days (9 out of 83 trials) and the imprecision of PCR genotyping which overcalls recrudescence in areas of higher transmission biasing the later distribution.Conclusions: Restricting follow-up of clinical efficacy trials to day 28 for AL and day 42 for DP will miss a proportion of late recrudescent treatment failures but will have a modest impact in derived efficacy. The results highlight that as genotyping methods improve consideration should be given for trials with longer duration of follow-up to detect early indications of emerging drug resistance.
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| 6. |
- Hadfield, James, et al.
(författare)
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Comprehensive global genome dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis show ancient diversification followed by contemporary mixing and recent lineage expansion
- 2017
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Ingår i: Genome Research. - : Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press. - 1088-9051 .- 1549-5469. ; 27:7, s. 1220-1229
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Chlamydia trachomatis is the world's most prevalent bacterial sexually transmitted infection and leading infectious cause of blindness, yet it is one of the least understood human pathogens, in part due to the difficulties of in vitro culturing and the lack of available tools for genetic manipulation. Genome sequencing has reinvigorated this field, shedding light on the contemporary history of this pathogen. Here, we analyze 563 full genomes, 455 of which are novel, to show that the history of the species comprises two phases, and conclude that the currently circulating lineages are the result of evolution in different genomic ecotypes. Temporal analysis indicates these lineages have recently expanded in the space of thousands of years, rather than the millions of years as previously thought, a finding that dramatically changes our understanding of this pathogen's history. Finally, at a time when almost every pathogen is becoming increasingly resistant to antimicrobials, we show that there is no evidence of circulating genomic resistance in C. trachomatis.
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| 7. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(författare)
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The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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| 8. |
- Ikram, M. Arfan, et al.
(författare)
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Common variants at 6q22 and 17q21 are associated with intracranial volume
- 2012
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 44:5, s. 539-544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During aging, intracranial volume remains unchanged and represents maximally attained brain size, while various interacting biological phenomena lead to brain volume loss. Consequently, intracranial volume and brain volume in late life reflect different genetic influences. Our genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 8,175 community-dwelling elderly persons did not reveal any associations at genome-wide significance (P < 5 x 10(-8)) for brain volume. In contrast, intracranial volume was significantly associated with two loci: rs4273712 (P = 3.4 x 10(-11)), a known height-associated locus on chromosome 6q22, and rs9915547 (P = 1.5 x 10(-12)), localized to the inversion on chromosome 17q21. We replicated the associations of these loci with intracranial volume in a separate sample of 1,752 elderly persons (P = 1.1 x 10(-3) for 6q22 and 1.2 x 10(-3) for 17q21). Furthermore, we also found suggestive associations of the 17q21 locus with head circumference in 10,768 children (mean age of 14.5 months). Our data identify two loci associated with head size, with the inversion at 17q21 also likely to be involved in attaining maximal brain size.
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| 9. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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| 10. |
- Kingsley, Jonathan, et al.
(författare)
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Pandemic gardening: A narrative review, vignettes and implications for future research
- 2023
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Ingår i: Urban Forestry & Urban Greening. - : ELSEVIER GMBH. - 1618-8667 .- 1610-8167. ; 87
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a significant amount of evidence highlighting the health, wellbeing and social benefits of gardening during previous periods of crises. These benefits were also evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper presents a narrative review exploring gardening during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic to understand the different forms of gardening that took place during this crisis and key elements of this activity. Research about gardening during the pandemic focused on food (in)security and disrupted food systems, the health and wellbeing benefits of gardening, and the social dimensions of gardening. We offer three vignettes of our own research to highlight key insights from local, national and international perspectives of gardening during the pandemic. The papers conclusion outlines how researchers, policy makers and public health practitioners can harness what has been learned from gardening during the pandemic to ensure these benefits are more widely available and do not exacerbate already entrenched health inequalities in society.
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| 11. |
- Marsh, John, et al.
(författare)
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Auditory distraction eliminates retrieval induced forgetting : Implications for the processing of unattended sound
- 2013
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Ingår i: Experimental psychology (Göttingen). - : Hogrefe Publishing Group. - 1618-3169 .- 2190-5142. ; 60:5, s. 368-375
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Retrieval-Induced Forgetting (RIF) paradigm includes three phases: (a) study/encoding of category exemplars, (b) practicing retrieval of a sub-set of those category exemplars, and (c) recall of all exemplars. At the final recall phase, recall of items that belong to the same categories as those items that undergo retrieval practice, but that did not undergo retrieval practice themselves, is impaired. The received view is that this is because retrieval of target category-exemplars (e.g., “Tiger” in the category Four-legged animal) requires inhibition of nontarget category-exemplars (e.g., “Dog” and “Lion”) that compete for retrieval. Here, we used the RIF paradigm to investigate whether ignoring auditory items during the retrieval-practice phase modulates the inhibitory process. In two experiments, RIF was present when retrieval practice was conducted in quiet and when it was conducted in the presence of spoken words that were drawn from a different category to that from which the targets for retrieval practice were selected. In contrast, RIF was abolished when words that were either identical to, or merely semantically related to, the retrieval-practice words were presented as background speech. The results suggest that the act of ignoring speech can reduce inhibition of the non-practiced category-exemplars, thereby eliminating RIF, but only when the spoken words are competitors for retrieval (i.e., belong to the same semantic category as the to-be-retrieved items).
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| 12. |
- Marsh, John, et al.
(författare)
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Distraction Control Processes in Free Recall: Benefits and Costs to Performance
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory and Cognition. - : American Psychological Association. - 0278-7393 .- 1939-1285. ; 41:1, s. 118-133
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How is semantic memory influenced by individual differences under conditions of distraction? This question was addressed by observing how participants recalled visual target words-drawn from a single category-while ignoring spoken distractor words that were members of either the same or a different (single) category. Working memory capacity (WMC) was related to disruption only with synchronous, not asynchronous, presentation, and distraction was greater when the words were presented synchronously. Subsequent experiments found greater negative priming of distractors among individuals with higher WMC, but this may be dependent on targets and distractors being comparable category exemplars. With less dominant category members as distractors, target recall was impaired-relative to controlonly among individuals with low WMC. The results highlight the role of cognitive control resources in target-distractor selection and the individual-specific cost implications of such cognitive control.
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| 13. |
- Neumann, Alexander, et al.
(författare)
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Multivariate GWAS of Alzheimer's disease CSF biomarker profiles implies GRIN2D in synaptic functioning.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Genome medicine. - 1756-994X. ; 15:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of Alzheimer's disease (AD) have identified several risk loci, but many remain unknown. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers may aid in gene discovery and we previously demonstrated that six CSF biomarkers (β-amyloid, total/phosphorylated tau, NfL, YKL-40, and neurogranin) cluster into five principal components (PC), each representing statistically independent biological processes. Here, we aimed to (1) identify common genetic variants associated with these CSF profiles, (2) assess the role of associated variants in AD pathophysiology, and (3) explore potential sex differences.We performed GWAS for each of the five biomarker PCs in two multi-center studies (EMIF-AD and ADNI). In total, 973 participants (n=205 controls, n=546 mild cognitive impairment, n=222 AD) were analyzed for 7,433,949 common SNPs and 19,511 protein-coding genes. Structural equation models tested whether biomarker PCs mediate genetic risk effects on AD, and stratified and interaction models probed for sex-specific effects.Five loci showed genome-wide significant association with CSF profiles, two were novel (rs145791381 [inflammation] and GRIN2D [synaptic functioning]) and three were previously described (APOE, TMEM106B, and CHI3L1). Follow-up analysesof the two novel signals in independent datasets only supported the GRIN2D locus, which contains several functionally interesting candidate genes. Mediation tests indicated that variants in APOE are associated with AD status via processes related to amyloid and tau pathology, while markers in TMEM106B and CHI3L1 are associated with AD only via neuronal injury/inflammation. Additionally, seven loci showed sex-specific associations with AD biomarkers.These results suggest that pathway and sex-specific analyses can improve our understanding of AD genetics and may contribute to precision medicine.
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| 14. |
- Rodriguez, Ariane, et al.
(författare)
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Role of IgA in the defense against respiratory infections : IgA deficient mice exhibited increased susceptibility to intranasal infection with Mycobacterium bovis BCG
- 2005
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Ingår i: Vaccine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0264-410X .- 1873-2518. ; 23:20, s. 2565-2572
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IgA is the predominant Ig isotype in mucosal tissue and is believed to be involved in defense against viral and bacterial infections at these sites. Here, we examined the role of IgA in the protection against intranasal (i.n.) infection with Mycobacterium bovis Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG). IgA deficient (IgA−/−) mice and wild type non-targeted littermate (IgA+/+) mice were immunized by i.n. route with the mycobacterium surface antigen PstS-1 formulated with cholera toxin (CT). Our data showed that IgA−/− mice were more susceptible to BCG infection compared to IgA+/+ mice, as revealed by the higher bacterial loads in the lungs and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL). Analysis of the Ig levels and the antibody responses to PstS-1 showed that IgA−/− mice had no detectable IgA either in the saliva or in the BAL. However, these mice displayed higher levels of total and specific IgM than IgA+/+ mice in both mucosal fluids. More importantly, analysis of the cytokine responses revealed a reduction in the IFN-γ and TNF-α production in the lungs of IgA−/− compared to IgA+/+ mice. Altogether, our results suggest that IgA may play a role in protection against mycobacterial infections in the respiratory tract by blocking the pathogen entrance and/or by modulating the pro-inflammatory responses.
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| 15. |
- Taal, H. Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Common variants at 12q15 and 12q24 are associated with infant head circumference
- 2012
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 44:5, s. 532-538
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To identify genetic variants associated with head circumference in infancy, we performed a meta-analysis of seven genome-wide association studies (GWAS) (N = 10,768 individuals of European ancestry enrolled in pregnancy and/or birth cohorts) and followed up three lead signals in six replication studies (combined N = 19,089). rs7980687 on chromosome 12q24 (P = 8.1 x 10(-9)) and rs1042725 on chromosome 12q15 (P = 2.8 x 10(-10)) were robustly associated with head circumference in infancy. Although these loci have previously been associated with adult height(1), their effects on infant head circumference were largely independent of height (P = 3.8 x 10(-7) for rs7980687 and P = 1.3 x 10(-7) for rs1042725 after adjustment for infant height). A third signal, rs11655470 on chromosome 17q21, showed suggestive evidence of association with head circumference (P = 3.9 x 10(-6)). SNPs correlated to the 17q21 signal have shown genome-wide association with adult intracranial volume(2), Parkinson's disease and other neurodegenerative diseases(3-5), indicating that a common genetic variant in this region might link early brain growth with neurological disease in later life.
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| 16. |
- Tilmes, Simone, et al.
(författare)
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The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202 .- 2169-897X. ; 118:19, s. 11036-11058
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The hydrological impact of enhancing Earth's albedo by solar radiation management is investigated using simulations from 12 Earth System models contributing to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). We contrast an idealized experiment, G1, where the global mean radiative forcing is kept at preindustrial conditions by reducing insolation while the CO2 concentration is quadrupled to a 4×CO2 experiment. The reduction of evapotranspiration over land with instantaneously increasing CO2 concentrations in both experiments largely contributes to an initial reduction in evaporation. A warming surface associated with the transient adjustment in 4×CO2 generates an increase of global precipitation by around 6.9% with large zonal and regional changes in both directions, including a precipitation increase of 10% over Asia and a reduction of 7% for the North American summer monsoon. Reduced global evaporation persists in G1 with temperatures close to preindustrial conditions. Global precipitation is reduced by around 4.5%, and significant reductions occur over monsoonal land regions: East Asia (6%), South Africa (5%), North America (7%), and South America (6%). The general precipitation performance in models is discussed in comparison to observations. In contrast to the 4×CO2 experiment, where the frequency of months with heavy precipitation intensity is increased by over 50% in comparison to the control, a reduction of up to 20% is simulated in G1. These changes in precipitation in both total amount and frequency of extremes point to a considerable weakening of the hydrological cycle in a geoengineered world.
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| 17. |
- Zona, Donatella, et al.
(författare)
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Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season.
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