| 1. |
- Thomas, HS, et al.
(author)
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- 2019
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 8. |
- Bowers, Robert M., et al.
(author)
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Minimum information about a single amplified genome (MISAG) and a metagenome-assembled genome (MIMAG) of bacteria and archaea
- 2017
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In: Nature Biotechnology. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 1087-0156 .- 1546-1696. ; 35:8, s. 725-731
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present two standards developed by the Genomic Standards Consortium (GSC) for reporting bacterial and archaeal genome sequences. Both are extensions of the Minimum Information about Any (x) Sequence (MIxS). The standards are the Minimum Information about a Single Amplified Genome (MISAG) and the Minimum Information about a Metagenome-Assembled Genome (MIMAG), including, but not limited to, assembly quality, and estimates of genome completeness and contamination. These standards can be used in combination with other GSC checklists, including the Minimum Information about a Genome Sequence (MIGS), Minimum Information about a Metagenomic Sequence (MIMS), and Minimum Information about a Marker Gene Sequence (MIMARKS). Community-wide adoption of MISAG and MIMAG will facilitate more robust comparative genomic analyses of bacterial and archaeal diversity.
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| 9. |
- Sandholm, Niina, et al.
(author)
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New susceptibility loci associated with kidney disease in type 1 diabetes
- 2012
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In: PLOS Genetics. - San Francisco, USA : Public Library of Science, PLOS. - 1553-7390 .- 1553-7404. ; 8:9, s. e1002921-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Diabetic kidney disease, or diabetic nephropathy (DN), is a major complication of diabetes and the leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) that requires dialysis treatment or kidney transplantation. In addition to the decrease in the quality of life, DN accounts for a large proportion of the excess mortality associated with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Whereas the degree of glycemia plays a pivotal role in DN, a subset of individuals with poorly controlled T1D do not develop DN. Furthermore, strong familial aggregation supports genetic susceptibility to DN. However, the genes and the molecular mechanisms behind the disease remain poorly understood, and current therapeutic strategies rarely result in reversal of DN. In the GEnetics of Nephropathy: an International Effort (GENIE) consortium, we have undertaken a meta-analysis of genomewide association studies (GWAS) of T1D DN comprising similar to 2.4 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) imputed in 6,691 individuals. After additional genotyping of 41 top ranked SNPs representing 24 independent signals in 5,873 individuals, combined meta-analysis revealed association of two SNPs with ESRD: rs7583877 in the AFF3 gene (P = 1.2 x 10(-8)) and an intergenic SNP on chromosome 15q26 between the genes RGMA and MCTP2, rs12437854 (P = 2.0 x 10(-9)). Functional data suggest that AFF3 influences renal tubule fibrosis via the transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta 1) pathway. The strongest association with DN as a primary phenotype was seen for an intronic SNP in the ERBB4 gene (rs7588550, P = 2.1 x 10(-7)), a gene with type 2 diabetes DN differential expression and in the same intron as a variant with cis-eQTL expression of ERBB4. All these detected associations represent new signals in the pathogenesis of DN.
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| 10. |
- Ciarelli, Giancarlo, et al.
(author)
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Trends of inorganic and organic aerosols and precursor gases in Europe: Insights from the EURODELTA multi-model experiment over the 1990-2010 period
- 2019
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 12:12, s. 4923-4954
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends (EDT) modeling experiment, several chemical transport models (CTMs) were applied for the 1990-2010 period to investigate air quality changes in Europe as well as the capability of the models to reproduce observed long-term air quality trends. Five CTMs have provided modeled air quality data for 21 continuous years in Europe using emission scenarios prepared by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis/Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (IIASA/GAINS) and corresponding year-by-year meteorology derived from ERA-Interim global reanalysis. For this study, long-term observations of particle sulfate (SO2 4-), total nitrate (TNO3), total ammonium (TNHx) as well as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for multiple sites in Europe were used to evaluate the model results. The trend analysis was performed for the full 21 years (referred to as PT) but also for two 11-year subperiods: 1990-2000 (referred to as P1) and 2000-2010 (referred to as P2). The experiment revealed that the models were able to reproduce the faster decline in observed SO2 concentrations during the first decade, i.e., 1990-2000, with a 64%-76% mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all the models) versus an 82% mean relative reduction in observed concentrations. During the second decade (P2), the models estimated a mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations of about 34%-54%, which was also in line with that observed (47%). Comparisons of observed and modeled NO2 trends revealed a mean relative decrease of 25% and between 19% and 23% (range of all the models) during the P1 period, and 12% and between 22% and 26% (range of all the models) during the P2 period, respectively. Comparisons of observed and modeled trends in SO4 2- concentrations during the P1 period indicated that the models were able to reproduce the observed trends at most of the sites, with a 42%-54% mean relative reduction indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all models) versus a 57% mean relative reduction in observed concentrations and with good performance also during the P2 and PT periods, even though all the models overpredicted the number of statistically significant decreasing trends during the P2 period. Moreover, especially during the P1 period, both modeled and observational data indicated smaller reductions in SO42- concentrations compared with their gas-phase precursor (i.e., SO2), which could be mainly attributed to increased oxidant levels and pH-dependent cloud chemistry. An analysis of the trends in TNO3 concentrations indicated a 28%-39% and 29% mean relative reduction in TNO3 concentrations for the full period for model data (range of all the models) and observations, respectively. Further analysis of the trends in modeled HNO3 and particle nitrate (NO-3 ) concentrations revealed that the relative reduction in HNO3 was larger than that for NO-3 during the P1 period, which was mainly attributed to an increased availability of "free ammonia". By contrast, trends in modeled HNO3 and NO-3 concentrations were more comparable during the P2 period. Also, trends of TNHx concentrations were, in general, underpredicted by all models, with worse performance for the P1 period than for P2. Trends in modeled anthropogenic and biogenic secondary organic aerosol (ASOA and BSOA) concentrations together with the trends in available emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) were also investigated. A strong decrease in ASOA was indicated by all the models, following the reduction in anthropogenic non-methane VOC (NMVOC) precursors. Biogenic emission data provided by the modeling teams indicated a few areas with statistically significant increase in isoprene emissions and monoterpene emissions during the 1990-2010 period over Fennoscandia and eastern European regions (i.e., around 14 %-27 %), which was mainly attributed to the increase of surface temperature. However, the modeled BSOA concentrations did not linearly follow the increase in biogenic emissions. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation against positive matrix factorization (PMF) data, available during the second period (P2) at various European sites, revealed a systematic underestimation of the modeled SOA fractions of a factor of 3 to 11, on average, most likely because of missing SOA precursors and formation pathways, with reduced biases for the models that accounted for chemical aging of semi-volatile SOA components in the atmosphere.
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| 11. |
- Otero, Noelia, et al.
(author)
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A multi-model comparison of meteorological drivers of surface ozone over Europe
- 2018
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 18:16, s. 12269-12288
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The implementation of European emission abatement strategies has led to a significant reduction in the emissions of ozone precursors during the last decade. Ground-level ozone is also influenced by meteorological factors such as temperature, which exhibit interannual variability and are expected to change in the future. The impacts of climate change on air quality are usually investigated through air-quality models that simulate interactions between emissions, meteorology and chemistry. Within a multi-model assessment, this study aims to better understand how air-quality models represent the relationship between meteorological variables and surface ozone concentrations over Europe. A multiple linear regression (MLR) approach is applied to observed and modelled time series across 10 European regions in springtime and summertime for the period of 2000-2010 for both models and observations. Overall, the air-quality models are in better agreement with observations in summertime than in springtime and particularly in certain regions, such as France, central Europe or eastern Europe, where local meteorological variables show a strong influence on surface ozone concentrations. Larger discrepancies are found for the southern regions, such as the Balkans, the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean basin, especially in springtime. We show that the air-quality models do not properly reproduce the sensitivity of surface ozone to some of the main meteorological drivers, such as maximum temperature, relative humidity and surface solar radiation. Specifically, all air-quality models show more limitations in capturing the strength of the ozone-relative-humidity relationship detected in the observed time series in most of the regions, for both seasons. Here, we speculate that dry-deposition schemes in the air-quality models might play an essential role in capturing this relationship. We further quantify the relationship between ozone and maximum temperature (m(o3-T), climate penalty) in observations and air-quality models. In summertime, most of the air-quality models are able to reproduce the observed climate penalty reasonably well in certain regions such as France, central Europe and northern Italy. However, larger discrepancies are found in springtime, where air-quality models tend to overestimate the magnitude of the observed climate penalty.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Orpana, Heather M., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016 : Systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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In: BMJ (Online). - : BMJ. - 1756-1833 .- 0959-8138. ; 364
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Design Systematic analysis. Main outcome measures Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). Results The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Conclusions Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.
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| 14. |
- Svenningsson, Birgitta, et al.
(author)
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Hygroscopic growth and critical supersaturations for mixed aerosol particles of inorganic and organic compounds of atmospheric relevance
- 2006
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - 1680-7324. ; 6:7, s. 1937-1952
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The organic fraction of atmospheric aerosols contains a multitude of compounds and usually only a small fraction can be identified and quantified. However, a limited number of representative organic compounds can be used to describe the water-soluble organic fraction. In this work, initiated within the EU 5FP project SMOCC, four mixtures containing various amounts of inorganic salts (ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate, and sodium chloride) and three model organic compounds (levoglucosan, succinic acid and fulvic acid) were studied. The interaction between water vapor and aerosol particles was studied at different relative humidities: at subsaturation using a hygroscopic tandem differential mobility analyzer (H-TDMA) and at supersaturation using a cloud condensation nuclei spectrometer (CCN spectrometer). Surface tensions as a function of carbon concentrations were measured using a bubble tensiometer. Parameterizations of water activity as a function of molality, based on hygroscopic growth, are given for the pure organic compounds and for the mixtures, indicating van't Hoff factors around 1 for the organics. The Zdanovskii-Stokes-Robinson (ZSR) mixing rule was tested on the hygroscopic growth of the mixtures and it was found to adequately explain the hygroscopic growth for 3 out of 4 mixtures, when the limited solubility of succinic acid is taken into account. One mixture containing sodium chloride was studied and showed a pronounced deviation from the ZSR mixing rule. Critical supersaturations calculated using the parameterizations of water activity and the measured surface tensions were compared with those determined experimentally.
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| 15. |
- Theobald, M. R., et al.
(author)
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An evaluation of European nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition and their trends estimated by six chemistry transport models for the period 1990–2010
- 2019
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 19:1, s. 379-405
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The wet deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe for the period 1990–2010 was estimated by six atmospheric chemistry transport models (CHIMERE, CMAQ, EMEP MSC-W, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH and MINNI) within the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends model intercomparison. The simulated wet deposition and its trends for two 11-year periods (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) were evaluated using data from observations from the EMEP European monitoring network. For annual wet deposition of oxidised nitrogen (WNOx), model bias was within 30 % of the average of the observations for most models. There was a tendency for most models to underestimate annual wet deposition of reduced nitrogen (WNHx), although the model bias was within 40 % of the average of the observations. Model bias for WNHx was inversely correlated with model bias for atmospheric concentrations of NH3 + NH4+, suggesting that an underestimation of wet deposition partially contributed to an overestimation of atmospheric concentrations. Model bias was also within about 40 % of the average of the observations for the annual wet deposition of sulfur (WSOx) for most models. Decreasing trends in WNOx were observed at most sites for both 11-year periods, with larger trends, on average, for the second period. The models also estimated predominantly decreasing trends at the monitoring sites and all but one of the models estimated larger trends, on average, for the second period. Decreasing trends were also observed at most sites for WNHx, although larger trends, on average, were observed for the first period. This pattern was not reproduced by the models, which estimated smaller decreasing trends, on average, than those observed or even small increasing trends. The largest observed trends were for WSOx, with decreasing trends at more than 80 % of the sites. On average, the observed trends were larger for the first period. All models were able to reproduce this pattern, although some models underestimated the trends (by up to a factor of 4) and others overestimated them (by up to 40 %), on average. These biases in modelled trends were directly related to the tendency of the models to under- or overestimate annual wet deposition and were smaller for the relative trends (expressed as % yr−1 relative to the deposition at the start of the period). The fact that model biases were fairly constant throughout the time series makes it possible to improve the predictions of wet deposition for future scenarios by adjusting the model estimates using a bias correction calculated from past observations. An analysis of the contributions of various factors to the modelled trends suggests that the predominantly decreasing trends in wet deposition are mostly due to reductions in emissions of the precursors NOx, NH3 and SOx. However, changes in meteorology (e.g. precipitation) and other (non-linear) interactions partially offset the decreasing trends due to emission reductions during the first period but not the second. This suggests that the emission reduction measures had a relatively larger effect on wet deposition during the second period, at least for the sites with observations.
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| 16. |
- Visser-Vandewalle, Veerle, et al.
(author)
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Deep brain stimulation for obsessive-compulsive disorder : a crisis of access
- 2022
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In: Nature Medicine. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1078-8956 .- 1546-170X. ; 28:8, s. 1529-1532
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Deep brain stimulation is an effective treatment for obsessive–compulsive disorder but is rarely used. Action is needed by psychologists, psychiatrists and insurers so that patients with otherwise intractable cases can receive this therapy to improve their mental health.
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| 17. |
- Antonell, Anna, et al.
(author)
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Synaptic, axonal damage and inflammatory cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers in neurodegenerative dementias.
- 2020
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In: Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association. - : Wiley. - 1552-5279. ; 16:2, s. 262-272
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Synaptic damage, axonal neurodegeneration, and neuroinflammation are common features in Alzheimer's disease (AD), frontotemporal dementia (FTD), and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD).Unicentric cohort of 353 participants included healthy control (HC) subjects, AD continuum stages, genetic AD and FTD, and FTD and CJD. We measured cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light (NF-L), neurogranin (Ng), 14-3-3, and YKL-40 proteins.Biomarkers showed differences in HC subjects versus AD, FTD, and CJD. Disease groups differed between them except AD versus FTD for YKL-40. Only NF-L differed between all stages within the AD continuum. AD and FTD symptomatic mutation carriers presented differences with respect to HC subjects. Applying the AT(N) system, 96% subjects were positive for neurodegeneration if 14-3-3 was used, 94% if NF-L was used, 62% if Ng was used, and 53% if YKL-40 was used.Biomarkers of synapse and neurodegeneration differentiate HC subjects from neurodegenerative dementias and between AD, FTD, and CJD. NF-L and 14-3-3 performed similar to total tau when AT(N) system was applied.
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Capo, Eric, et al.
(author)
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A consensus protocol for the recovery of mercury methylation genes from metagenomes
- 2023
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In: Molecular Ecology Resources. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1755-098X .- 1755-0998. ; 23:1, s. 190-204
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Mercury (Hg) methylation genes (hgcAB) mediate the formation of the toxic methylmercury and have been identified from diverse environments, including freshwater and marine ecosystems, Arctic permafrost, forest and paddy soils, coal-ash amended sediments, chlor-alkali plants discharges and geothermal springs. Here we present the first attempt at a standardized protocol for the detection, identification and quantification of hgc genes from metagenomes. Our Hg-cycling microorganisms in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (Hg-MATE) database, a catalogue of hgc genes, provides the most accurate information to date on the taxonomic identity and functional/metabolic attributes of microorganisms responsible for Hg methylation in the environment. Furthermore, we introduce "marky-coco", a ready-to-use bioinformatic pipeline based on de novo single-metagenome assembly, for easy and accurate characterization of hgc genes from environmental samples. We compared the recovery of hgc genes from environmental metagenomes using the marky-coco pipeline with an approach based on coassembly of multiple metagenomes. Our data show similar efficiency in both approaches for most environments except those with high diversity (i.e., paddy soils) for which a coassembly approach was preferred. Finally, we discuss the definition of true hgc genes and methods to normalize hgc gene counts from metagenomes.
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| 20. |
- Colette, Augustin, et al.
(author)
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EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990–2010
- 2017
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:9, s. 3255-3276
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990–2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions, and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have – to date – completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models). The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i) an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990–2010 time period, (iii) attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology), (iv) a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model results for use in impact studies related to human health, ecosystem, and radiative forcing.
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| 21. |
- Garcia Lecumberri, M Luisa, et al.
(author)
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A web-based transcription tool
- 2003
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In: Proc. XVth International Congress of Phonetic Sciences. ; , s. 981-984
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Transcription raises speakers’ awareness of sound systems and, in the case of language learners, of pronunciation errors. It is also a valuable diagnostic technique in pronunciation competence assessment. Nevertheless, transcription requires extensive practice and feedback, making heavy demands on tutors. Autonomous transcription learning can be difficult and frustrating due to the lack of contextual variation information and personalized feedback. We describe a web-based tool (www.wtt.org.uk) for transcription practice, which may also be used for pronunciation training and diagnosis. It incorporates automatic, fast and personalized feedback, making exercises customisable and varied. The tool performs an optimal alignment of student versus model transcriptions using a dynamic programming algorithm, modified to handle alternative pronunciations. It computes a summary of errors and their locations within a student’s transcription. The current version contains materials for British English and Castilian Spanish and is readily adaptable to additional languages.
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| 22. |
- Gerckens, Michael, et al.
(author)
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Phenotypic drug screening in a human fibrosis model identified a novel class of antifibrotic therapeutics
- 2021
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In: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 7:52, s. 1-19
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Fibrogenic processes instigate fatal chronic diseases leading to organ failure and death. Underlying biological processes involve induced massive deposition of extracellular matrix (ECM) by aberrant fibroblasts. We subjected diseased primary human lung fibroblasts to an advanced three-dimensional phenotypic high-content assay and screened a repurposing drug library of small molecules for inhibiting ECM deposition. Fibrotic Pattern Detection by Artificial Intelligence identified tranilast as an effective inhibitor. Structure-activity relationship studies confirmed N-(2-butoxyphenyl)-3-(phenyl)acrylamides (N23Ps) as a novel and highly potent compound class. N23Ps suppressed myofibroblast transdifferentiation, ECM deposition, cellular contractility, and altered cell shapes, thus advocating a unique mode of action. Mechanistically, transcriptomics identified SMURF2 as a potential therapeutic target network. Antifibrotic activity of N23Ps was verified by proteomics in a human ex vivo tissue fibrosis disease model, suppressing profibrotic markers SERPINE1 and CXCL8. Conclusively, N23Ps are a novel class of highly potent compounds inhibiting organ fibrosis in patients.
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| 23. |
- Hakkarainen, Teemu, et al.
(author)
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Te incorporation and activation as n-type dopant in self-catalyzed GaAs nanowires
- 2019
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In: Physical Review Materials. - 2475-9953. ; 3:8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Dopant atoms can be incorporated into nanowires either via the vapor-liquid-solid mechanism through the catalyst droplet or by the vapor-solid growth on the sidewalls. Si is a typical n-type dopant for GaAs, but in nanowires it often suffers from a strongly amphoteric nature in the vapor-liquid-solid process. This issue can be avoided by using Te, which is a promising but less common alternative for n-type doping of GaAs nanowires. Here, we present a detailed investigation of Te-doped self-catalyzed GaAs nanowires. We use several complementary experimental techniques, such as atom probe tomography, off-axis electron holography, micro-Raman spectroscopy, and single-nanowire transport characterization, to assess the Te concentration, the free-electron concentration, and the built-in potential in Te-doped GaAs nanowires. By combing the experimental results with a theoretical model, we show that Te atoms are mainly incorporated by the vapor-liquid-solid process through the Ga droplet, which leads to both axial and radial dopant gradients due to Te diffusion inside the nanowires and competition between axial elongation and radial growth of nanowires. Furthermore, by comparing the free-electron concentration from Raman spectroscopy and the Te-atom concentrations from atom probe tomography, we show that the activation of Te donor atoms is 100% at a doping level of 4×1018cm-3, which is a significant result in terms of future device applications.
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| 24. |
- Kivisto, Samuli, et al.
(author)
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Pulse dynamics of a passively mode-locked Bi-doped fiber laser
- 2010
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In: Optics Express. - 1094-4087. ; 18:2, s. 1041-1048
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The pulse evolution in Bi-doped soliton fiber laser with slow and fast saturable absorber has been studied both experimentally and numerically. Semiconductor saturable absorbers with balanced slow and fast absorption recovery mechanisms exhibit a bi-temporal recovery dynamics which permits both reliable start-up of passive mode-locking and short pulse generation and stabilization. The pulse dynamics within the Bi fiber laser cavity have been investigated.
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| 25. |
- Mircea, M, et al.
(author)
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Importance of the organic aerosol fraction for modeling aerosol hygroscopic growth and activation: a case study in the Amazon Basin
- 2005
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - 1680-7324. ; 5, s. 3111-3126
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The aerosol in the Amazon basin is dominated throughout the year by organic matter, for the most part soluble in water. In this modeling study, we show how the knowledge of water-soluble organic compounds (WSOC) and the associated physical and chemical properties (e.g. solubility, surface tension, dissociation into ions) affect the hygroscopic growth and activation of the aerosol in this area. The study is based on data obtained during the SMOCC field experiment carried out in Rondonia, Brazil, over a period encompassing the dry (biomass burning) season to the onset of the wet season (September to mid-November, 2002). The comparison of predicted and measured cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration shows that the knowledge of aerosol WSOC composition in terms of classes of compounds and of their relative molecular weights and acidic properties may be sufficient to predict aerosol activation, without any information on solubility. Conversely, the lack of knowledge on WSOC solubility leads to a high overestimation of the observed diameter growth factors (DGF) by the theory. Moreover, the aerosol water soluble inorganic species fail to predict both DGFs and CCN number concentration. In fact, this study shows that a good reproduction of the measured DGF and CCN concentration is obtained if the chemical composition of aerosol, especially that of WSOC, is appropriately taken into account in the calculations. New parameterizations for the computed CCN spectra are also derived which take into account the variability caused by chemical effects (surface tension, molecular composition, solubility, degree of dissociation of WSOC).
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