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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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2. |
- Drescher, A., et al.
(författare)
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Problems after flight : understanding and comparing Syrians' perspectives in the Middle East and Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMC Public Health. - : BioMed Central Ltd. - 1471-2458. ; 21:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Syrian refugees and asylum seekers (SRAs) face multiple stressors after flight, which may vary due to different geographic, economic, cultural and socio-political contexts in the host countries. Past research has recognised the importance of participantsâ own perspectives. The aims of this multi-country study were to identify and compare self-reported problems of SRAs between various settings. Methods: A semi-structured client-generated outcome measurement was used to collect data among adult SRAs in Jordan (N = 61), Turkey (N = 46) and Switzerland (N = 57) between September 2018 and November 2019. Answers were analysed following thematic analysis. Results: Over half of the participants reported practical problems with an emphasis on camp-related problems (Jordan), finances (Turkey), employment (Jordan and Switzerland) and government regulations (Switzerland), followed by psychological, and social issues. Conclusion: This study highlights the impact of local contextual factors on wellbeing. The findings emphasise that planning preventative procedures and mental health care services for SRAs need to consider local challenges affecting the population in specific countries. © 2021, The Author(s).
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4. |
- Kiselev, N., et al.
(författare)
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Barriers to access to outpatient mental health care for refugees and asylum seekers in Switzerland : The therapist’s view
- 2020
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Ingår i: BMC Psychiatry. - : BioMed Central Ltd. - 1471-244X. ; 20:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: More than 120,000 refugees and asylum seekers are currently living in Switzerland. The prevalence of mental disorders among this population is significantly higher than that in the general population. While effective treatment options and cross-cultural, specialized treatment centers exist, they tend to be overloaded by their target populations. General outpatient primary health care providers might be able to compensate for the lack of specialized treatment slots. To date, however, it is unknown how often and under what conditions (e.g., length of waiting lists) refugees and asylum seekers are treated outside of specialized centers and whether there are barriers that prevent providers in outpatient settings from treating more patients in this subgroup. The present study aimed to assess the challenges and barriers faced by psychiatrists and psychotherapists working in outpatient settings in Switzerland in treating refugees and asylum seekers to determine the potential capacity of this group to provide mental health care. Methods: An online survey was conducted during the winter of 2017/2018. The survey was constructed in three official languages and took 10-15 min to complete. Spearman’s correlations, Mann-Whitney U-Tests, and Chi-squared tests were conducted to analyze the data. Results: Eight hundred and sixty-seven (N = 867) psychotherapists and psychiatrists working in outpatient settings completed the survey: 43% of them reported having treated between 1 and 9 refugees or asylum seekers in the past 12 months, and a further 13% reported treating 10 or more. Interpreters were used for almost every other patient with a refugee or asylum-seeker background. At the same time, the funding of interpreters, as well as the funding of treatment in general, were reported to be the biggest hurdles to treating more refugees and asylum seekers. Conclusions: Given the low number of patients rejected for capacity reasons (between 2 and 5%) and the median waiting times for the admission of new patients ranging between 2 and 3 weeks, outpatient primary mental health care providers might treat more refugees and asylum seekers and relieve specialized treatment centers. However, barriers such as lack of funding of interpreters seem to hinder them. Appropriate steps by the authorities are needed to improve the current situation. © 2020 The Author(s).
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5. |
- Kiselev, N., et al.
(författare)
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Problems faced by Syrian refugees and asylum seekers in Switzerland
- 2020
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Ingår i: Swiss Medical Weekly. - : NLM (Medline). - 1424-7860 .- 1424-3997. ; 150
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Refugees and asylum seekers are susceptible to developing common mental disorders due to their exposure to stressful experiences before, during and after their flight. The Syrian Civil War, which started in 2011, has led to a massive number of Syrians seeking refuge and asylum in European countries, including Switzerland. Currently, Syrians are the second-largest refugee and asylum-seeking population in Switzerland. However, very little is known about the problems faced by this new population in Switzerland and their needs relating to mental health services. Identifying the problems faced by this community is crucial to providing adapted and tailored mental health services to Syrian refugees in Switzerland. AIM OF HE STUDY: The current study aimed to identify problems that Syrian refugees and asylum seekers face daily while living in Switzerland in order to inform the adaptation of a brief psychological intervention. METHODS: We used a cross-sectional, qualitative design and collected data according to The Manual for Design, Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation of Mental Health and Psychosocial Assistance Programs for Trauma Survivors in order to identify problems perceived by the target population. Free-listing, open-ended interviews were conducted with 30 adult Syrian refugees and asylum seekers and analyzed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: The results show that besides physical health problems, Syrians experience primarily two types of problems: practical and psychological (emotional) problems. These two types of problems are closely interrelated. The most common practical problems (problems with government and authorities, problems related to residence permits, problems with integration, cultural differences, language problems, problems related to education, problems related to employment, and problems with housing) were reported by almost half of all participants. Symptoms of mental disorders and feelings of uncertainty, frustration and injustice were the most common psychological problems and were mentioned by more than one third of the participants. The finding that almost half of the participants reported typical symptoms of mental health disorders suggests that a considerable number of Syrian refugees and asylum seekers might need mental healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: Authorities, practitioners and researchers should recognize that Syrian refugees and asylum seekers are strongly affected by a broad range of problems. Besides practical problems, they suffer a multitude of psychological problems, and a significant number of them report, among other issues, symptoms of mental health disorders. Officials working with this population should be aware of this vulnerability and be prepared to refer clients in need of mental healthcare to mental healthcare providers. Moreover, the significant variety and number of problems experienced by this population should be taken into consideration when developing solutions tailored to their needs. BACKGROUND: Refugees and asylum seekers are susceptible to developing common mental disorders due to their exposure to stressful experiences before, during and after their flight. The Syrian Civil War, which started in 2011, has led to a massive number of Syrians seeking refuge and asylum in European countries, including Switzerland. Currently, Syrians are the second-largest refugee and asylum-seeking population in Switzerland. However, very little is known about the problems faced by this new population in Switzerland and their needs relating to mental health services. Identifying the problems faced by this community is crucial to providing adapted and tailored mental health services to Syrian refugees in Switzerland. AIM OF HE STUDY: The current study aimed to identify problems that Syrian refugees and asylum seekers face daily while living in Switzerland in order to inform the adaptation of a brief psychological intervention. METHODS: We used a cross-sectional, qualitative design and collected data according to The Manual for Design, Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation of Mental Health and Psychosocial Assistance Programs for Trauma Survivors in order to identify problems perceived by the target population. Free-listing, open-ended interviews were conducted with 30 adult Syrian refugees and asylum seekers and analyzed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: The results show that besides physical health problems, Syrians experience primarily two types of problems: practical and psychological (emotional) problems. These two types of problems are closely interrelated. The most common practical problems (problems with government and authorities, problems related to residence permits, problems with integration, cultural differences, language problems, problems related to education, problems related to employment, and problems with housing) were reported by almost half of all participants. Symptoms of mental disorders and feelings of uncertainty, frustration and injustice were the most common psychological problems and were mentioned by more than one third of the participants. The finding that almost half of the participants reported typical symptoms of mental health disorders suggests that a considerable number of Syrian refugees and asylum seekers might need mental healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: Authorities, practitioners and researchers should recognize that Syrian refugees and asylum seekers are strongly affected by a broad range of problems. Besides practical problems, they suffer a multitude of psychological problems, and a significant number of them report, among other issues, symptoms of mental health disorders. Officials working with this population should be aware of this vulnerability and be prepared to refer clients in need of mental healthcare to mental healthcare providers. Moreover, the significant variety and number of problems experienced by this population should be taken into consideration when developing solutions tailored to their needs. BACKGROUND: Refugees and asylum seekers are susceptible to developing common mental disorders due to their exposure to stressful experiences before, during and after their flight. The Syrian Civil War, which started in 2011, has led to a massive number of Syrians seeking refuge and asylum in European countries, including Switzerland. Currently, Syrians are the second-largest refugee and asylum-seeking population in Switzerland. However, very little is known about the problems faced by this new population in Switzerland and their needs relating to mental health services. Identifying the problems faced by this community is crucial to providing adapted and tailored mental health services to Syrian refugees in Switzerland. AIM OF HE STUDY: The current study aimed to identify problems that Syrian refugees and asylum seekers face daily while living in Switzerland in order to inform the adaptation of a brief psychological intervention. METHODS: We used a cross-sectional, qualitative design and collected data according to The Manual for Design, Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation of Mental Health and Psychosocial Assistance Programs for Trauma Survivors in order to identify problems perceived by the target population. Free-listing, open-ended interviews were conducted with 30 adult Syrian refugees and asylum seekers and analyzed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: The results show that besides physical health problems, Syrians experience primarily two types of problems: practical and psychological (emotional) problems. These two types of problems are closely interrelated. The most common practical problems (problems with government and authorities, problems related to residence permits, problems with integration, cultural differences, language problems, problems related to education, problems related to employment, and problems with housing) were reported by almost half of all participants. Symptoms of mental disorders and feelings of uncertainty, frustration and injustice were the most common psychological problems and were mentioned by more than one third of the participants. The finding that almost half of the participants reported typical symptoms of mental health disorders suggests that a considerable number of Syrian refugees and asylum seekers might need mental healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: Authorities, practitioners and researchers should recognize that Syrian refugees and asylum seekers are strongly affected by a broad range of problems. Besides practical problems, they suffer a multitude of psychological problems, and a significant number of them report, among other issues, symptoms of mental health disorders. Officials working with this population should be aware of this vulnerability and be prepared to refer clients in need of mental healthcare to mental healthcare providers. Moreover, the significant variety and number of problems experienced by this population should be taken into consideration when developing solutions tailored to their needs.
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6. |
- Kiselev, N., et al.
(författare)
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Structural and socio-cultural barriers to accessing mental healthcare among Syrian refugees and asylum seekers in Switzerland
- 2020
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Ingår i: European Journal of Psychotraumatology. - : Taylor and Francis Ltd.. - 2000-8198 .- 2000-8066. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Due to their experiences of major stressful life events, including post-displacement stressors, refugees and asylum seekers are vulnerable to developing mental health problems. Yet, despite the availability of specialized mental health services in Western European host countries, refugees and asylum seekers display low mental healthcare utilization. Objective: The aim of this study was to explore structural and socio-cultural barriers to accessing mental healthcare among Syrian refugees and asylum seekers in Switzerland. Method: In this qualitative study, key-informant (KI) interviews with Syrian refugees and asylum seekers, Swiss healthcare providers and other stakeholders (e.g. refugee coordinators or leaders) were conducted in the German-speaking part of Switzerland. Participants were recruited using snowball sampling. Interviews were audiotaped and transcribed, and then analysed using thematic analysis, combining deductive and inductive coding. Results: Findings show that Syrian refugees and asylum seekers face multiple structural and socio-cultural barriers, with socio-cultural barriers being perceived as more pronounced. Syrian key informants, healthcare providers, and other stakeholders identified language, gatekeeper-associated problems, lack of resources, lack of awareness, fear of stigma and a mismatch between the local health system and perceived needs of Syrian refugees and asylum seekers as key barriers to accessing care. Conclusions: The results show that for Syrian refugees and asylum seekers in Switzerland several barriers exist. This is in line with previous findings. A possible solution for the current situation might be to increase the agility of the service system in general and to improve the willingness to embrace innovative paths, rather than adapting mental healthcare services regarding single barriers and needs of a new target population. © 2020, © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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7. |
- Sijbrandij, M., et al.
(författare)
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Strengthening mental health care systems for Syrian refugees in Europe and the Middle East : integrating scalable psychological interventions in eight countries
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Journal of Psychotraumatology. - : Taylor and Francis Ltd.. - 2000-8198 .- 2000-8066. ; 8:sup2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The crisis in Syria has resulted in vast numbers of refugees seeking asylum in Syriaâs neighbouring countries as well as in Europe. Refugees are at considerable risk of developing common mental disorders, including depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Most refugees do not have access to mental health services for these problems because of multiple barriers in national and refugee specific health systems, including limited availability of mental health professionals. To counter some of challenges arising from limited mental health system capacity the World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a range of scalable psychological interventions aimed at reducing psychological distress and improving functioning in people living in communities affected by adversity. These interventions, including Problem Management Plus (PM+) and its variants, are intended to be delivered through individual or group face-to-face or smartphone formats by lay, non-professional people who have not received specialized mental health training, We provide an evidence-based rationale for the use of the scalable PM+ oriented programmes being adapted for Syrian refugees and provide information on the newly launched STRENGTHS programme for adapting, testing and scaling up of PM+ in various modalities in both neighbouring and European countries hosting Syrian refugees. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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8. |
- Spaaij, J., et al.
(författare)
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Feasibility and acceptability of Problem Management Plus (PM+) among Syrian refugees and asylum seekers in Switzerland : a mixed-method pilot randomized controlled trial
- 2022
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Ingår i: European Journal of Psychotraumatology. - : Taylor and Francis Ltd.. - 2000-8198 .- 2000-8066. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Syrian refugees in Switzerland face several barriers in accessing mental health care. Cost-effective psychological interventions are urgently needed to meet the mental health needs of refugees. Problem Management Plus (PM+) is an evidence-based, psychological intervention delivered by trained non-specialist âhelpersâ. Objective: To assess the feasibility and acceptability of PM+ among Syrian refugees in Switzerland. Methods: We conducted a single-blind pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) with Syrian refugees impaired by psychological distress (K10 > 15 and WHODAS 2.0 > 16). Participants were randomized to PM+ or Enhanced Treatment As Usual (ETAU). Participants were assessed at baseline, and 1 week and 3 months after the intervention, and completed measures indexing mental health problems and health care usage. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with different stakeholders. Results: N = 59 individuals were randomized into PM+ (n = 31) or ETAU (n = 28). N = 18 stakeholders were interviewed about facilitators and barriers for the implementation of PM+. Retention rates in the trial (67.8%) and mean intervention attendance (M = 3.94 sessions, SD = 1.97) were high. No severe events related to the study were reported. These findings indicate that the trial procedures and PM+ were feasible, acceptable and safe. Conclusions: The findings support the conduct of a definitive RCT and show that PM+ might have the potential to be scaled-up in Switzerland. The importance, as well as the challenges, of implementing and scaling-up PM+ in high-income countries, such as Switzerland, are discussed. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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9. |
- Spaaij, J., et al.
(författare)
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The effect of a low-level psychological intervention (PM+) on post-migration living difficulties – Results from two studies in Switzerland and in the Netherlands
- 2023
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Ingår i: Comprehensive Psychiatry. - : Elsevier BV. - 0010-440X .- 1532-8384. ; 127
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims of the study: After arriving in host countries, most refugees are confronted with numerous post-migration stressors (e.g., separation from family, discrimination, and employment difficulties). Post-migration living difficulties (PMLDs) significantly contribute to the development and persistence of mental disorders. Effective treatment approaches focusing on reducing post-migration stress are urgently needed. The aim of the present study was to examine the effect of a brief psychological intervention, Problem Management Plus (PM+), on PMLDs among Syrian refugees in two European countries. Methods: We merged data from two single-blind feasibility trials with Syrian refugees experiencing elevated levels of psychological distress and impaired functioning in Switzerland (N = 59) and the Netherlands (N = 60). Participants were randomised to receive either five sessions of PM+ or an enhanced care-as-usual control condition. PMLDs were assessed at baseline and 3 months after the intervention. To estimate treatment effect on PMLD, linear mixed model analysis was performed. Results: Three months after the intervention, participants in the PM+ condition reported significantly fewer PMLDs compared to the control condition. Further analyses at item-level showed that interpersonal and family related PMLDs, such as “worries about family back home” significantly improved over time in the PM+ condition. Conclusions: This exploratory study suggests that brief psychological interventions have the potential to reduce PMLDs in refugees and asylum seekers. The reduction of post-migration stress in turn may subsequently lead to an overall reduction in psychological distress. Clinical Trial Numbers: BASEC Nr. 2017–0117 (Swiss trial) and NL61361.029.17, 7 September 2017 (Dutch trial).
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13. |
- Masetti, M, et al.
(författare)
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Lipid-loaded tumor-associated macrophages sustain tumor growth and invasiveness in prostate cancer
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Journal of experimental medicine. - : Rockefeller University Press. - 1540-9538 .- 0022-1007. ; 219:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) are correlated with the progression of prostatic adenocarcinoma (PCa). The mechanistic basis of this correlation and therapeutic strategies to target TAMs in PCa remain poorly defined. Here, single-cell RNA sequencing was used to profile the transcriptional landscape of TAMs in human PCa, leading to identification of a subset of macrophages characterized by dysregulation in transcriptional pathways associated with lipid metabolism. This subset of TAMs correlates positively with PCa progression and shorter disease-free survival and is characterized by an accumulation of lipids that is dependent on Marco. Mechanistically, cancer cell–derived IL-1β enhances Marco expression on macrophages, and reciprocally, cancer cell migration is promoted by CCL6 released by lipid-loaded TAMs. Moreover, administration of a high-fat diet to tumor-bearing mice raises the abundance of lipid-loaded TAMs. Finally, targeting lipid accumulation by Marco blockade hinders tumor growth and invasiveness and improves the efficacy of chemotherapy in models of PCa, pointing to combinatorial strategies that may influence patient outcomes.
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14. |
- Morina, N., et al.
(författare)
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The impact of enhancing perceived self-efficacy in torture survivors
- 2018
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Ingår i: Depression and anxiety (Print). - : Blackwell Publishing Inc.. - 1091-4269 .- 1520-6394. ; 35:1, s. 58-64
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Perceived self-efficacy (SE) is an important factor underlying psychological well-being. Refugees suffer many experiences that can compromise SE. This study tested the impact of enhancing perceived SE on coping with trauma reminders and distress tolerance in tortured refugees. Methods: Torture survivors (N = 40) were administered a positive SE induction in which they retrieved mastery-related autobiographical memories, or a non-SE (NSE) induction, and then viewed trauma-related images. Participants rated their distress following presentation of each image. Participants then completed a frustration-inducing mirror-tracing task to index distress tolerance. Results: Participants in the SE condition reported less distress and negative affect, and improved coping in relation to viewing the trauma-related images than those in the NSE condition. The SE induction also led to greater persistence with the mirror-tracing task than the NSE induction. Conclusions: These findings provide initial evidence that promoting SE in tortured refugees can assist with managing distress from trauma reminders, and promoting greater distress tolerance. Enhancing perceived SE in tortured refugees may increase their capacity to tolerate distress during therapy, and may be a useful means to improve treatment response. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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18. |
- Spiller, T. R., et al.
(författare)
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Emotional Reactivity, Emotion Regulation Capacity, and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Traumatized Refugees : An Experimental Investigation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Traumatic Stress. - : John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 0894-9867 .- 1573-6598. ; 32:1, s. 32-41
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Refugees who suffer from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) often react with strong emotions when confronted with trauma reminders. In this study, we aimed to investigate the associations between low emotion regulation capacity (as indexed by low heart rate variability [HRV]), probable PTSD diagnosis, and fear and anger reaction and recovery to trauma-related stimuli. Participants were 81 trauma-exposed refugees (probable PTSD, n = 23; trauma-exposed controls, n = 58). The experiment comprised three 5-min phases: a resting phase (baseline); an exposition phase, during which participants were exposed to trauma-related images (stimulus); and another resting phase (recovery). We assessed HRV at baseline, and fear and anger were rated at the end of each phase. Linear mixed model analyses were used to investigate the associations between baseline HRV and probable DSM-5 PTSD diagnosis in influencing anger and fear responses both immediately after viewing trauma-related stimuli and at the end of the recovery phase. Compared to controls, participants with probable PTSD showed a greater increase in fear from baseline to stimulus presentation, d = 0.606. Compared to participants with low emotion regulation capacity, participants with high emotion regulation capacity showed a smaller reduction in anger from stimulus presentation to recovery, d = 0.548. Our findings indicated that following exposure to trauma-related stimuli, probable PTSD diagnosis predicted increased fear reactivity, and low emotion regulation capacity predicted decreased anger recovery. Impaired anger recovery following trauma reminders in the context of low emotion regulation capacity might contribute to the increased levels of anger found in postconflict samples. © 2019 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies
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