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1.	Abbott, Benjamin W., et al. (författare) Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment 2016 Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
2.	Olefeldt, David, et al. (författare) The Boreal-Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD) 2021 Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Gesellschaft MBH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:11, s. 5127-5149 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and future methane emissions. Here we present the BorealArctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD), a land cover dataset based on an expert assessment, extrapolated using random forest modelling from available spatial datasets of climate, topography, soils, permafrost conditions, vegetation, wetlands, and surface water extents and dynamics. In BAWLD, we estimate the fractional coverage of five wetland, seven lake, and three river classes within 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid cells that cover the northern boreal and tundra biomes (17 % of the global land surface). Land cover classes were defined using criteria that ensured distinct methane emissions among classes, as indicated by a co-developed comprehensive dataset of methane flux observations. In BAWLD, wetlands occupied 3.2 x 10(6) km(2) (14 % of domain) with a 95 % confidence interval between 2.8 and 3.8 x 10(6) km(2). Bog, fen, and permafrost bog were the most abundant wetland classes, covering similar to 28 % each of the total wetland area, while the highest-methane-emitting marsh and tundra wetland classes occupied 5 % and 12 %, respectively. Lakes, defined to include all lentic open-water ecosystems regardless of size, covered 1.4 x 10(6) km(2) (6 % of domain). Low-methane-emitting large lakes (>10 km(2)) and glacial lakes jointly represented 78 % of the total lake area, while high-emitting peatland and yedoma lakes covered 18 % and 4 %, respectively. Small (<0.1 km(2)) glacial, peatland, and yedoma lakes combined covered 17 % of the total lake area but contributed disproportionally to the overall spatial uncertainty in lake area with a 95 % confidence interval between 0.15 and 0.38 x 10(6) km(2). Rivers and streams were estimated to cover 0.12 x 10(6) km(2) (0.5 % of domain), of which 8 % was associated with high-methane-emitting headwaters that drain organic-rich landscapes. Distinct combinations of spatially co-occurring wetland and lake classes were identified across the BAWLD domain, allowing for the mapping of "wetscapes" that have characteristic methane emission magnitudes and sensitivities to climate change at regional scales. With BAWLD, we provide a dataset which avoids double-accounting of wetland, lake, and river extents and which includes confidence intervals for each land cover class. As such, BAWLD will be suitable for many hydrological and biogeochemical modelling and upscaling efforts for the northern boreal and arctic region, in particular those aimed at improving assessments of current and future methane emissions.
3.	Turetsky, Merritt R., et al. (författare) Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw 2020 Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 13:2, s. 138- Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km(2) of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km(2) permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.
4.	Kuhn, McKenzie A., et al. (författare) BAWLD-CH4 : a comprehensive dataset of methane fluxes from boreal and arctic ecosystems 2021 Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Gesellschaft MBH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:11, s. 5151-5189 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Methane (CH4) emissions from the boreal and arctic region are globally significant and highly sensitive to climate change. There is currently a wide range in estimates of high-latitude annual CH4 fluxes, where estimates based on land cover inventories and empirical CH4 flux data or process models (bottom-up approaches) generally are greater than atmospheric inversions (top-down approaches). A limitation of bottom-up approaches has been the lack of harmonization between inventories of site-level CH4 flux data and the land cover classes present in high-latitude spatial datasets. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of small-scale, surface CH4 flux data from 540 terrestrial sites (wetland and non-wetland) and 1247 aquatic sites (lakes and ponds), compiled from 189 studies. The Boreal-Arctic Wetland and Lake Methane Dataset (BAWLD-CH4) was constructed in parallel with a compatible land cover dataset, sharing the same land cover classes to enable refined bottom-up assessments. BAWLD-CH4 includes information on site-level CH4 fluxes but also on study design (measurement method, timing, and frequency) and site characteristics (vegetation, climate, hydrology, soil, and sediment types, permafrost conditions, lake size and depth, and our determination of land cover class). The different land cover classes had distinct CH4 fluxes, resulting from definitions that were either based on or co-varied with key environmental controls. Fluxes of CH4 from terrestrial ecosystems were primarily influenced by water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition, while CH4 fluxes from aquatic ecosystems were primarily influenced by water temperature, lake size, and lake genesis. Models could explain more of the between-site variability in CH4 fluxes for terrestrial than aquatic ecosystems, likely due to both less precise assessments of lake CH4 fluxes and fewer consistently reported lake site characteristics. Analysis of BAWLD-CH4 identified both land cover classes and regions within the boreal and arctic domain, where future studies should be focused, alongside methodological approaches. Overall, BAWLD-CH4 provides a comprehensive dataset of CH4 emissions from high-latitude ecosystems that are useful for identifying research opportunities, for comparison against new field data, and model parameterization or validation.
5.	Kuhn, McKenzie A., et al. (författare) Opposing Effects of Climate and Permafrost Thaw on CH4 and CO2 Emissions From Northern Lakes 2021 Ingår i: AGU Advances. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2576-604X. ; 2:4 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Small, organic-rich lakes are important sources of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, yet the sensitivity of emissions to climate warming is poorly constrained and potentially influenced by permafrost thaw. Here, we monitored emissions from 20 peatland lakes across a 1,600 km permafrost transect in boreal western Canada. Contrary to expectations, we observed a shift from source to sink of CO2 for lakes warmer regions, driven by greater primary productivity associated with greater hydrological connectivity to lakes and nutrient availability in the absence of permafrost. Conversely, an 8-fold increase in CH4 emissions in warmer regions was associated with water temperature and shifts in microbial communities and dominant anaerobic processes. Our results suggest that the net radiative forcing from altered greenhouse gas emissions of northern peatland lakes this century will be dominated by increasing CH4 emissions and only partially offset by reduced CO2 emissions.
6.	Olefeldt, David, et al. (författare) Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones 2013 Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 19:2, s. 589-603 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Methane (CH4) emissions from the northern high-latitude region represent potentially significant biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. We compiled a database of growing-season CH4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems located across permafrost zones, including 303 sites described in 65 studies. Data on environmental and physical variables, including permafrost conditions, were used to assess controls on CH4 emissions. Water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition strongly influenced emissions and had interacting effects. Sites with a dense sedge cover had higher emissions than other sites at comparable water table positions, and this was an effect that was more pronounced at low soil temperatures. Sensitivity analysis suggested that CH4 emissions from ecosystems where the water table on average is at or above the soil surface (wet tundra, fen underlain by permafrost, and littoral ecosystems) are more sensitive to variability in soil temperature than drier ecosystems (palsa dry tundra, bog, and fen), whereas the latter ecosystems conversely are relatively more sensitive to changes of the water table position. Sites with near-surface permafrost had lower CH4 fluxes than sites without permafrost at comparable water table positions, a difference that was explained by lower soil temperatures. Neither the active layer depth nor the organic soil layer depth was related to CH4 emissions. Permafrost thaw in lowland regions is often associated with increased soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and increased sedge cover. In our database, lowland thermokarst sites generally had higher emissions than adjacent sites with intact permafrost, but emissions from thermokarst sites were not statistically higher than emissions from permafrost-free sites with comparable environmental conditions. Overall, these results suggest that future changes to terrestrial high-latitude CH4 emissions will be more proximately related to changes in moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation composition than to increased availability of organic matter following permafrost thaw.
7.	Schuur, Edward A. G., et al. (författare) Permafrost and Climate Change : Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic 2022 Ingår i: Annual Review Environment and Resources. - : Annual Reviews. - 1543-5938 .- 1545-2050. ; 47, s. 343-371 Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract Rapid Arctic environmental change affects the entire Earth system as thawing permafrost ecosystems release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Understanding how much permafrost carbon will be released, over what time frame, and what the relative emissions of carbon dioxide and methane will be is key for understanding the impact on global climate. In addition, the response of vegetation in a warming climate has the potential to offset at least some of the accelerating feedback to the climate from permafrost carbon. Temperature, organic carbon, and ground ice are key regulators for determining the impact of permafrost ecosystems on the global carbon cycle. Together, these encompass services of permafrost relevant to global society as well as to the people living in the region and help to determine the landscape-level response of this region to a changing climate.
8.	Abbott, Benjamin W., et al. (författare) We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems 2022 Ingår i: Frontiers in Environmental Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-665X. ; 10 Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO2, the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.
9.	Harris, Lorna I., et al. (författare) Permafrost thaw causes large carbon loss in boreal peatlands while changes to peat quality are limited 2023 Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 29:19, s. 5720-5735 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Rapid, ongoing permafrost thaw of peatlands in the discontinuous permafrost zone is exposing a globally significant store of soil carbon (C) to microbial processes. Mineralization and release of this peat C to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases is a potentially important feedback to climate change. Here we investigated the effects of permafrost thaw on peat C at a peatland complex in western Canada. We collected 15 complete peat cores (between 2.7 and 4.5 m deep) along four chronosequences, from elevated permafrost peat plateaus to saturated thermokarst bogs that thawed up to 600 years ago. The peat cores were analysed for peat C storage and peat quality, as indicated by decomposition proxies (FTIR and C/N ratios) and potential decomposability using a 200-day aerobic laboratory incubation. Our results suggest net C loss following thaw, with average total peat C stocks decreasing by ~19.3 ± 7.2 kg C m−2 over <600 years (~13% loss). Average post-thaw accumulation of new peat at the surface over the same period was ~13.1 ± 2.5 kg C m−2. We estimate ~19% (±5.8%) of deep peat (>40 cm below surface) C is lost following thaw (average 26 ± 7.9 kg C m−2 over <600 years). Our FTIR analysis shows peat below the thaw transition in thermokarst bogs is slightly more decomposed than peat of a similar type and age in permafrost plateaus, but we found no significant changes to the quality or lability of deeper peat across the chronosequences. Our incubation results also showed no increase in C mineralization of deep peat across the chronosequences. While these limited changes in peat quality in deeper peat following permafrost thaw highlight uncertainty in the exact mechanisms and processes for C loss, our analysis of peat C stocks shows large C losses following permafrost thaw in peatlands in western Canada.
10.	Heffernan, Liam, et al. (författare) Constraints on potential enzyme activities in thermokarst bogs : Implications for the carbon balance of peatlands following thaw 2021 Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 27:19, s. 4711-4726 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Northern peatlands store a globally significant amount of soil organic carbon, much of it found in rapidly thawing permafrost. Permafrost thaw in peatlands often leads to the development and expansion of thermokarst bogs, where microbial activity will determine the stability of the carbon storage and the release of greenhouse gases. In this study, we compared potential enzyme activities between young (thawed 30 years ago) and mature ( 200 years) thermokarst bogs, for both shallow and deep peat layers. We found very low potential enzyme activities in deep peat layers, with no differences between the young and mature bogs. Peat quality at depth was found to be highly humified (FTIR analysis) in both the young and mature bogs. This suggests that deep, old peat was largely stable following permafrost thaw, without a rapid pulse of decomposition during the young bog stage. For near-surface peat, we found significantly higher potential enzyme activities in the young bog than in the mature—associated with differences in peat quality derived from different Sphagnum species. A laboratory incubation of near-surface peat showed that differences in potential enzyme activity were primarily influenced by peat type rather than oxygen availability. This suggested that the young bog can have higher rates of near-surface decomposition despite being substantially wetter than the mature bog. Overall, our study shows that peat properties are the dominant constraint on potential enzyme activity and that peatland site development (successional pathways and permafrost history) through its influence on peat type and chemistry is likely to determine peat decomposition following permafrost thaw.
11.	Heffernan, Liam, et al. (författare) High peatland methane emissions following permafrost thaw : enhanced acetoclastic methanogenesis during early successional stages 2022 Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 19:12, s. 3051-3071 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Permafrost thaw in northern peatlands often leads to increased methane (CH4) emissions, but the underlying controls responsible for increased emissions and the duration for which they persist have yet to be fully elucidated. We assessed how shifting environmental conditions affect microbial communities and the magnitude and stable isotopic signature (delta C-13) of CH4 emissions along a thermokarst bog transect in boreal western Canada. Thermokarst bogs develop following permafrost thaw when dry, elevated peat plateaus collapse and become saturated and dominated by Sphagnum mosses. We differentiated between a young and a mature thermokarst bog stage (similar to 30 and similar to 200 years since thaw, respectively). The young bog located along the thermokarst edge was wetter, warmer, and dominated by hydrophilic vegetation compared to the mature bog. Using high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing, we show that microbial communities were distinct near the surface and converged with depth, but fewer differences remained down to the lowest depth (160 cm). Microbial community analysis and delta C-13 data from CH4 surface emissions and dissolved gas depth profiles show that hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis was the dominant pathway at both sites. However, mean delta C-13-CH4 signatures of both dissolved gas profiles and surface CH4 emissions were found to be iso-topically heavier in the young bog (-63 parts per thousand and -65 parts per thousand, respectively) compared to the mature bog (-69 parts per thousand and -75 parts per thousand, respectively), suggesting that acetoclastic methano-genesis was relatively more enhanced throughout the young bog peat profile. Furthermore, mean young bog CH4 emissions of 82 mg CH4 m(-2) d(-1) were similar to 3 times greater than the 32 mg CH4 m(-2) d(-1) observed in the mature bog. Our study suggests that interactions between the methano-genic community, hydrophilic vegetation, warmer temperatures, and saturated surface conditions enhance CH4 emissions in young thermokarst bogs but that these favourable conditions only persist for the initial decades after permafrost thaw.
12.	Hugelius, Gustaf, et al. (författare) Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw 2020 Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 117:34, s. 20438-20446 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y−1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.
13.	Kropp, Heather, et al. (författare) Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across Arctic and Boreal ecosystems 2021 Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 16:1 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (>40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.
14.	Kuhn, McKenzie A., et al. (författare) High ebullitive, millennial-aged greenhouse gas emissions from thermokarst expansion of peatland lakes in boreal western Canada 2023 Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 68:2, s. 498-513 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from small peatland lakes may be highly sensitive to climate warming and thermokarst expansion caused by permafrost thaw. We studied effects of thermokarst expansion on ebullitive CH4 and CO2 fluxes and diffusive CH4 fluxes from a peatland thaw lake in boreal western Canada. Ebullitive CH4 fluxes from the thaw edge (236 ± 61 mg CH4 m−2 d−1) were double and quadruple that of the stable lake edge and center, respectively. Modeled diffusive CH4 fluxes did not differ between the thawing and stable edges (~ 50 mg CH4 m−2 d−1) but were double that of the center. Radiocarbon (14C) analysis of CH4 and CO2 bubbles from the thaw edge was older (~ 1211 and 1420 14C yr BP) than from the stable edge and the center (modern to ~ 102 and 50 14C yr BP, respectively). Incubations indicated that deep, old peat sediment was more labile along the thaw edge than in the center. While our study suggested increase CH4 emissions partly derived from millennial-aged carbon along the thaw edge, accounting for these emissions only increased the estimated total lake CH4 emissions by ~ 10%, which is a much smaller contribution than measured from thermokarst lakes in yedoma regions. Our study suggests that it is important to account for landscape history and lake types when studying the processes that govern the sensitivity of lake greenhouse gas emissions to climate change.
15.	Lundin, Erik J, et al. (författare) Is the subarctic landscape still a carbon sink? : Evidence from a detailed catchment balance 2016 Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 43:5, s. 1988-1995 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Climate warming raises the question whether high-latitude landscape still function as net carbon (C) sinks. By compiling an integrated C balance for an intensely studied subarctic catchment, we show that this catchment's C balance is not likely to be a strong current sink of C, a commonly held assumption. In fact, it is more plausible (71% probability) that the studied catchment functions as a C source (-1120gCm(-2)yr(-1)). Analyses of individual fluxes indicate that soil and aquatic C losses offset C sequestering in other landscape components (e.g., peatlands and aboveground forest biomass). Our results stress the importance of fully integrated catchment C balance estimates and highlight the importance of upland soils and their interaction with the aquatic network for the catchment C balance.
16.	MZOBE, Pearl, et al. (författare) Dissolved organic carbon in streams within a subarctic catchment analysed using a GIS/remote sensing approach 2018 Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science. - 1932-6203. ; 13:7 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Climate change projections show that temperature and precipitation increases can alter the exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and high latitude landscapes, including their freshwaters. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays an important role in greenhouse gas emissions, but the impact of catchment productivity on DOC release to subarctic waters remains poorly known, especially at regional scales. We test the hypothesis that increased terrestrial productivity, as indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), generates higher stream DOC concentrations in the Stordalen catchment in subarctic Sweden. Furthermore, we aimed to determine the degree to which other generic catchment properties (elevation, slope) explain DOC concentration, and whether or not land cover variables representing the local vegetation type (e.g., mire, forest) need to be included to obtain adequate predictive models for DOC delivered into rivers. We show that the land cover type, especially the proportion of mire, played a dominant role in the catchment's release of DOC, while NDVI, slope, and elevation were supporting predictor variables. The NDVI as a single predictor showed weak and inconsistent relationships to DOC concentrations in recipient waters, yet NDVI was a significant positive regulator of DOC in multiple regression models that included land cover variables. Our study illustrates that vegetation type exerts primary control in DOC regulation in Stordalen, while productivity (NDVI) is of secondary importance. Thus, predictive multiple linear regression models for DOC can be utilized combining these different types of explanatory variables.
17.	Mzobe, P., et al. (författare) Morphometric Control on Dissolved Organic Carbon in Subarctic Streams 2020 Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953. ; 125:9 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Climate change has the potential to alter hydrological regimes and to expand saturated areas in permafrost environments, which are important sources of organic carbon. The sources, transfer zones, and delivery mechanisms of carbon into the stream network are controlled by the morphometric properties of the catchment; however, the utility and limitations of these properties as predictors of dissolved organic carbon concentrations have rarely been systematically evaluated. This study tested the relationships between 18 morphometric indicators and observed dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the Stordalen catchment, Sweden. Geospatial and explorative statistics were combined to assess the topographical, areal, and linear indicators influencing the distribution of DOC in the catchment. The results suggest that catchment morphometric indicators can be used as proxies to predict DOC concentrations along a longitudinal continuum in subarctic climate regions (R2 up to 0.52). Morphometry indicators that best served as predictors of DOC concentration in the model were as follows: relief, slope length and steepness factor (LS‐factor), sediment transport capacity, and catchment area. Due to the influence that catchment form exerts in DOC spatial patterns and processing, a morphometric approach can serve as a first approximation of DOC spatial patterns within a catchment. The initial step in identifying carbon sources based on the catchment topography has the potential to allow for quick and multilevel comparison within and between catchments.
18.	Olefeldt, David, et al. (författare) Net carbon accumulation of a high-latitude permafrost palsa mire similar to permafrost-free peatlands 2012 Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 39, s. L03501- Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Palsa mires, nutrient poor permafrost peatlands common in subarctic regions, store a significant amount of carbon (C) and it has been hypothesized their net ecosystem C balance (NECB) is sensitive to climate change. Over two years we measured the NECB for Stordalen palsa mire and found it to accumulate 46 g C m(-2) yr(-1). While Stordalen NECB is comparable to nutrient poor peatlands without permafrost, the component fluxes differ considerably in magnitude. Specifically, Stordalen had both lower growing season CO2 uptake and wintertime CO2 losses, but importantly also low dissolved organic carbon exports and hydrocarbon (mainly methane) emissions. Restricted C losses from palsa mires are likely to have facilitated C accumulation of unproductive subarctic permafrost peatlands. Continued climate change and permafrost thaw is likely to amplify several component fluxes, with an uncertain overall effect on NECB - highlighting the necessity for projections of high-latitude C storage to consider all C fluxes.
19.	Olefeldt, David, et al. (författare) Total waterborne carbon export and DOC composition from ten nested subarctic peatland catchments—importance of peatland cover, groundwater influence, and inter-annual variability of precipitation patterns 2013 Ingår i: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 1099-1085 .- 0885-6087. ; 27:16, s. 2280-2294 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Waterborne carbon (C) export from terrestrial ecosystems is a potentially important flux for the net catchment C balance and links the biogeochemical C cycling of terrestrial ecosystems to their downstream aquatic ecosystems. We have monitored hydrology and stream chemistry over 3 years in ten nested catchments (0.6–15.1 km2) with variable peatland cover (0%–22%) and groundwater influence in subarctic Sweden. Total waterborne C export, including dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), ranged between 2.8 and 7.3 g m–2 year–1, representing ~10%–30% of catchment net ecosystem exchange of CO2. Several characteristics of catchment waterborne C export were affected by interacting effects of peatland cover and groundwater influence, including magnitude and timing, partitioning into DOC, POC, and DIC and chemical composition of the exported DOC. Waterborne C export was greater during the wetter years, equivalent to an average change in export of ~2 g m–2 year–1 per 100 mm of precipitation. Wetter years led to a greater relative increase in DIC export than DOC export due to an inferred relative shift in dominance from shallow organic flow pathways to groundwater sources. Indices of DOC composition (SUVA254 and a250/a365) indicated that DOC aromaticity and average molecular weight increased with catchment peatland cover and decreased with increased groundwater influence. Our results provide examples on how waterborne C export and DOC composition might be affected by climate change. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
20.	Pascual, Didac, et al. (författare) The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study 2021 Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 50:2, s. 375-392 Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.
21.	Ramage, Justine, 1988-, et al. (författare) The Net GHG Balance and Budget of the Permafrost Region (2000–2020) From Ecosystem Flux Upscaling 2024 Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 38:4 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here, we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O across the terrestrial permafrost region using databases of more than 1000 in situ flux measurements and a land cover-based ecosystem flux upscaling approach for the period 2000–2020. Estimates indicate that the permafrost region emitted a mean annual flux of 12 (−606, 661) Tg CO2–C yr−1, 38 (22, 53) Tg CH4–C yr−1, and 0.67 (0.07, 1.3) Tg N2O–N yr−1 to the atmosphere throughout the period. Thus, the region was a net source of CH4 and N2O, while the CO2 balance was near neutral within its large uncertainties. Undisturbed terrestrial ecosystems had a CO2 sink of −340 (−836, 156) Tg CO2–C yr−1. Vertical emissions from fire disturbances and inland waters largely offset the sink in vegetated ecosystems. When including lateral fluxes for a complete GHG budget, the permafrost region was a net source of C and N, releasing 144 (−506, 826) Tg C yr−1 and 3 (2, 5) Tg N yr−1. Large uncertainty ranges in these estimates point to a need for further expansion of monitoring networks, continued data synthesis efforts, and better integration of field observations, remote sensing data, and ecosystem models to constrain the contemporary net GHG budgets of the permafrost region and track their future trajectory.
22.	Tang, Jing, et al. (författare) Drivers of dissolved organic carbon export in a subarctic catchment : Importance of microbial decomposition, sorption-desorption, peatland and lateral flow 2018 Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 622, s. 260-274 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Tundra soils account for 50% of global stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC), and it is expected that the amplified climate warming in high latitude could cause loss of this SOC through decomposition. Decomposed SOC could become hydrologically accessible, which increase downstream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export and subsequent carbon release to the atmosphere, constituting a positive feedback to climate warming. However, DOC export is often neglected in ecosystem models. In this paper, we incorporate processes related to DOC production, mineralization, diffusion, sorption-desorption, and leaching into a customized arctic version of the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS in order to mechanistically model catchment DOC export, and to link this flux to other ecosystem processes. The extended LPJ-GUESS is compared to observed DOC export at Stordalen catchment in northern Sweden. Vegetation communities include flood-tolerant graminoids (Eriophorum) and Sphagnum moss, birch forest and dwarf shrub communities. The processes, sorption-desorption and microbial decomposition (DOC production and mineralization) are found to contribute most to the variance in DOC export based on a detailed variance-based Sobol sensitivity analysis (SA) at grid cell-level. Catchment-level SA shows that the highest mean DOC exports come from the Eriophorum peatland (fen). A comparison with observations shows that the model captures the seasonality of DOC fluxes. Two catchment simulations, one without water lateral routing and one without peatland processes, were compared with the catchment simulations with all processes. The comparison showed that the current implementation of catchment lateral flow and peatland processes in LPJ-GUESS are essential to capture catchment-level DOC dynamics and indicate the model is at an appropriate level of complexity to represent the main mechanism of DOC dynamics in soils. The extended model provides a new tool to investigate potential interactions among climate change, vegetation dynamics, soil hydrology and DOC dynamics at both stand-alone to catchment scales.
23.	Torbick, Nathan, et al. (författare) High Resolution Mapping of Peatland Hydroperiod at a High-Latitude Swedish Mire 2012 Ingår i: Remote Sensing. - : MDPI AG. - 2072-4292. ; 4:7, s. 1974-1994 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Monitoring high latitude wetlands is required to understand feedbacks between terrestrial carbon pools and climate change. Hydrological variability is a key factor driving biogeochemical processes in these ecosystems and effective assessment tools are critical for accurate characterization of surface hydrology, soil moisture, and water table fluctuations. Operational satellite platforms provide opportunities to systematically monitor hydrological variability in high latitude wetlands. The objective of this research application was to integrate high temporal frequency Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and high spatial resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) observations to assess hydroperiod at a mire in northern Sweden. Geostatistical and polarimetric (PLR) techniques were applied to determine spatial structure of the wetland and imagery at respective scales (0.5 m to 25 m). Variogram, spatial regression, and decomposition approaches characterized the sensitivity of the two platforms (SAR and LiDAR) to wetland hydrogeomorphology, scattering mechanisms, and data interrelationships. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART), based on random forest, fused multi-mode (fine-beam single, dual, quad pol) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) and LiDAR-derived elevation to effectively map hydroperiod attributes at the Swedish mire across an aggregated warm season (May-September, 2006-2010). Image derived estimates of water and peat moisture were sensitive (R-2 = 0.86) to field measurements of water table depth (cm). Peat areas that are underlain by permafrost were observed as areas with fluctuating soil moisture and water table changes.
24.	Turetsky, Merritt R., et al. (författare) A synthesis of methane emissions from 71 northern, temperate, and subtropical wetlands 2014 Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 20:7, s. 2183-2197 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane. Here, we assess controls on methane flux using a database of approximately 19 000 instantaneous measurements from 71 wetland sites located across subtropical, temperate, and northern high latitude regions. Our analyses confirm general controls on wetland methane emissions from soil temperature, water table, and vegetation, but also show that these relationships are modified depending on wetland type (bog, fen, or swamp), region (subarctic to temperate), and disturbance. Fen methane flux was more sensitive to vegetation and less sensitive to temperature than bog or swamp fluxes. The optimal water table for methane flux was consistently below the peat surface in bogs, close to the peat surface in poor fens, and above the peat surface in rich fens. However, the largest flux in bogs occurred when dry 30-day averaged antecedent conditions were followed by wet conditions, while in fens and swamps, the largest flux occurred when both 30-day averaged antecedent and current conditions were wet. Drained wetlands exhibited distinct characteristics, e. g. the absence of large flux following wet and warm conditions, suggesting that the same functional relationships between methane flux and environmental conditions cannot be used across pristine and disturbed wetlands. Together, our results suggest that water table and temperature are dominant controls on methane flux in pristine bogs and swamps, while other processes, such as vascular transport in pristine fens, have the potential to partially override the effect of these controls in other wetland types. Because wetland types vary in methane emissions and have distinct controls, these ecosystems need to be considered separately to yield reliable estimates of global wetland methane release.

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