| 1. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Global tree-ring response and inferred climate variation following the mid-thirteenth century Samalas eruption
- 2022
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In: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 59:1-2, s. 531-546
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The largest explosive volcanic eruption of the Common Era in terms of estimated sulphur yield to the stratosphere was identified in glaciochemical records 40 years ago, and dates to the mid-thirteenth century. Despite eventual attribution to the Samalas (Rinjani) volcano in Indonesia, the eruption date remains uncertain, and the climate response only partially understood. Seeking a more global perspective on summer surface temperature and hydroclimate change following the eruption, we present an analysis of 249 tree-ring chronologies spanning the thirteenth century and representing all continents except Antarctica. Of the 170 predominantly temperature sensitive high-frequency chronologies, the earliest hints of boreal summer cooling are the growth depressions found at sites in the western US and Canada in 1257 CE. If this response is a result of Samalas, it would be consistent with an eruption window of circa May-July 1257 CE. More widespread summer cooling across the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia is pronounced in 1258, while records from Scandinavia and Siberia reveal peak cooling in 1259. In contrast to the marked post-Samalas temperature response at high-elevation sites in the Northern Hemisphere, no strong hydroclimatic anomalies emerge from the 79 precipitation-sensitive chronologies. Although our findings remain spatially biased towards the western US and central Europe, and growth-climate response patterns are not always dominated by a single meteorological factor, this study offers a global proxy framework for the evaluation of paleoclimate model simulations.
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| 2. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Global wood anatomical perspective on the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) in the mid-6th century CE
- 2022
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In: Science Bulletin. - : Elsevier BV. - 2095-9273. ; 67:22, s. 2336-2344
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23 forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89 Blue Rings (lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings (cell deformation and collapse), and 93 Light Rings (reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and 548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.
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| 3. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Limited capacity of tree growth to mitigate the global greenhouse effect under predicted warming
- 2019
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- It is generally accepted that animal heartbeat and lifespan are often inversely correlated, however, the relationship between productivity and longevity has not yet been described for trees growing under industrial and pre-industrial climates. Using 1768 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and dead conifers that grew in undisturbed, high-elevation sites in the Spanish Pyrenees and the Russian Altai over the past 2000 years, we test the hypothesis of grow fast-die young. We find maximum tree ages are significantly correlated with slow juvenile growth rates. We conclude, the interdependence between higher stem productivity, faster tree turnover, and shorter carbon residence time, reduces the capacity of forest ecosystems to store carbon under a climate warming-induced stimulation of tree growth at policy-relevant timescales.
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| 4. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Plants in the UK flower a month earlier under recent warming
- 2022
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In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 289:1968
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Global temperatures are rising at an unprecedented rate, but environmental responses are often difficult to recognize and quantify. Long-term observations of plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, can provide sensitive measures of climate change and important information for ecosystem services. Here, we present 419 354 recordings of the first flowering date from 406 plant species in the UK between 1753 and 2019 CE. Community-wide first flowering advanced by almost one month on average when comparing all observations before and after 1986 (p < 0.0001). The mean first flowering time is 6 days earlier in southern than northern sites, 5 days earlier under urban than rural settings, and 1 day earlier at lower than higher elevations. Compared to trees and shrubs, the largest lifeform-specific phenological shift of 32 days is found in herbs, which are generally characterized by fast turnover rates and potentially high levels of genetic adaptation. Correlated with January-April maximum temperatures at -0.81 from 1952-2019 (p < 0.0001), the observed trends (5.4 days per decade) and extremes (66 days between the earliest and latest annual mean) in the UK's first flowering dataset can affect the functioning and productivity of ecosystems and agriculture.
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| 5. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history
- 2020
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In: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 64
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- © 2020 Elsevier GmbH Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised.
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| 6. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Stable body size of Alpine ungulates
- 2020
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In: Royal Society Open Science. - : The Royal Society. - 2054-5703. ; 7:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In many species, decreasing body size has been associated with increasing temperatures. Although climate-induced phenotypic shifts, and evolutionary impacts, can affect the structure and functioning of marine and terrestrial ecosystems through biological and metabolic rules, evidence for shrinking body size is often challenged by (i) relatively short intervals of observation, (ii) a limited number of individuals, and (iii) confinement to small and isolated populations. To overcome these issues and provide important multi-species, long-term information for conservation managers and scientists, we compiled and analysed 222 961 measurements of eviscerated body weight, 170 729 measurements of hind foot length and 145 980 measurements of lower jaw length, in the four most abundant Alpine ungulate species: ibex (Capra ibex), chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra), red deer (Cervus elaphus) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Regardless of age, sex and phylogeny, the body mass and size of these sympatric animals, from the eastern Swiss Alps, remained stable between 1991 and 2013. Neither global warming nor local hunting influenced the fitness of the wild ungulates studied at a detectable level. However, we cannot rule out possible counteracting effects of enhanced nutritional resources associated with longer and warmer growing seasons, as well as the animals' ability to migrate along extensive elevational gradients in the highly diversified alpine landscape of this study.
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| 7. |
- Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, et al.
(author)
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Assessing non-linearity in European temperature-sensitive tree-ring data
- 2020
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In: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 59
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- © 2019 The Authors We test the application of parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric calibration models for reconstructing summer (June–August) temperature from a set of tree-ring width and density data on the same dendro samples from 40 sites across Europe. By comparing the performance of the three calibration models on öpairs” of tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) or maximum blue intensity (MXBI), we test whether a non-linear temperature response is more prevalent in TRW or MXD (MXBI) data, and whether it is associated with the temperature sensitivity and/or autocorrelation structure of the dendro parameters. We note that MXD (MXBI) data have a significantly stronger temperature response than TRW data as well as a lower autocorrelation that is more similar to that of the instrumental temperature data, whereas TRW exhibits a öredder” variability continuum. This study shows that the use of non-parametric calibration models is more suitable for TRW data, while parametric calibration is sufficient for both MXD and MXBI data – that is, we show that TRW is by far the more non-linear proxy.
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| 8. |
- Greaves, Ciara, et al.
(author)
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Remarkably high blue ring occurrence in Estonian Scots pines in 1976 reveals wood anatomical evidence of extreme autumnal cooling
- 2023
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In: Trees. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0931-1890 .- 1432-2285. ; 37:2, s. 511-522
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- ‘Blue rings’ (BRs) are visual indicators of less lignified cell walls typically formed towards the end of a tree’s growing season. Though BRs have been associated with ephemeral surface cooling, often following large volcanic eruptions, the intensity of cold spells necessary to produce BRs, as well as the consistency of their formation within and between trees still remains uncertain. Here, we report an exceptionally high BR occurrence within and between Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees at two sites in Estonia, including the first published whole-stem analysis for BRs. Daily meteorological measurements from a nearby station allowed us to investigate the role temperature has played in BR formation since the beginning of the twentieth century. The single year in which BRs were consistently formed within and amongst most trees was 1976. While the summer of 1976 is well known for an exceptional heatwave in Northwest Europe, mean September and October temperatures were remarkably low over Eastern Europe, and 3.8 °C below the 1961–1990 mean at our sites. Our findings contribute to a better eco-physiological interpretation of BRs, and further demonstrate their ability to reveal ephemeral cooling not captured by dendrochronological ring width and latewood density measurements.
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| 9. |
- Kirdyanov, Alexander, et al.
(author)
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Notes towards an optimal sampling strategy in dendroclimatology
- 2018
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In: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 52, s. 162-166
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Though the extraction of increment cores is common practice in tree-ring research, there is no standard for the number of samples per tree, or trees per site needed to accurately describe the common growth pattern of a discrete population of trees over space and time. Tree-ring chronologies composed of living, subfossil and archaeological material often combine an uneven distribution of increment cores and disc samples. The effects of taking one or two cores per tree, or even the inclusion of multiple radii measurements from entire discs, on chronology development and quality remain unreported. Here, we present four new larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr) ring width chronologies from the same 20 trees in northeastern Siberia that have been independently developed using different combinations of core and disc samples. Our experiment reveals: i) sawing is much faster than coring, with the latter not always hitting the pith; ii) the disc-based chronology contains fewer locally absent rings, extends further back in time and exhibits more growth coherency; iii) although the sampling design has little impact on the overall chronology behaviour, lower frequency information is more robustly obtained from the disc measurements that also tend to reflect a slightly stronger temperature signal. In quantifying the influence of sampling strategy on the quality of tree-ring width chronologies, and their suitability for climate reconstructions, this study provides useful insights for optimizing fieldwork campaigns, as well as for developing composite chronologies from different wood sources.
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| 10. |
- Kirdyanov, Alexander V., et al.
(author)
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Ecological and conceptual consequences of Arctic pollution
- 2020
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In: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 23:12, s. 1827-1837
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although the effect of pollution on forest health and decline received much attention in the 1980s, it has not been considered to explain the 'Divergence Problem' in dendroclimatology; a decoupling of tree growth from rising air temperatures since the 1970s. Here we use physical and biogeochemical measurements of hundreds of living and dead conifers to reconstruct the impact of heavy industrialisation around Norilsk in northern Siberia. Moreover, we develop a forward model with surface irradiance forcing to quantify long-distance effects of anthropogenic emissions on the functioning and productivity of Siberia's taiga. Downwind from the world's most polluted Arctic region, tree mortality rates of up to 100% have destroyed 24,000 km(2)boreal forest since the 1960s, coincident with dramatic increases in atmospheric sulphur, copper, and nickel concentrations. In addition to regional ecosystem devastation, we demonstrate how 'Arctic Dimming' can explain the circumpolar 'Divergence Problem', and discuss implications on the terrestrial carbon cycle.
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| 11. |
- Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier, et al.
(author)
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Ranking of tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions of the past millennium
- 2020
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In: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 230
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- © 2019 The Authors To place recent hydroclimate changes, including drought occurrences, in a long-term historical context, tree-ring records serve as an important natural archive. Here, we evaluate 46 millennium-long tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions for their Data Homogeneity, Sample Replication, Growth Coherence, Chronology Development, and Climate Signal based on criteria published by Esper et al. (2016) to assess tree-ring based temperature reconstructions. The compilation of 46 individually calibrated site reconstructions includes 37 different tree species and stem from North America (n = 29), Asia (n = 10); Europe (n = 5), northern Africa (n = 1) and southern South America (n = 1). For each criterion, the individual reconstructions were ranked in four groups, and results showed that no reconstruction scores highest or lowest for all analyzed parameters. We find no geographical differences in the overall ranking, but reconstructions from arid and semi-arid environments tend to score highest. A strong and stable hydroclimate signal is found to be of greater importance than a long calibration period. The most challenging trade-off identified is between high continuous sample replications, as well as a well-mixed age class distribution over time, and a good internal growth coherence. Unlike temperature reconstructions, a high proportion of the hydroclimate reconstructions are produced using individual series detrending methods removing centennial-scale variability. By providing a quantitative and objective evaluation of all available tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions we hope to boost future improvements in the development of such records and provide practical guidance to secondary users of these reconstructions.
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| 12. |
- Piermattei, Alma, et al.
(author)
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A millennium-long 'Blue Ring' chronology from the Spanish Pyrenees reveals severe ephemeral summer cooling after volcanic eruptions
- 2020
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- 'Blue Rings' (BRs) are distinct wood anatomical anomalies recently discovered in several tree species from different sites. While it is evident that they are associated with a cooling-induced lack of cell wall lignification, BRs have yet to be evaluated systematically in paleoclimate studies. Here, we present a continuous wood anatomical assessment of 31 living and relict pine samples from a high-elevation site in the central Spanish Pyrenees that span the period 1150-2017 CE at annual resolution. While most BR years coincide with cold summer temperatures and many BRs follow large volcanic eruptions, some were formed during overall warm summers. We also see a differential response between eruptions: the Samalas eruption is followed by 80% BRs in 1258, but only a modest signal is evident after the 1815 Tambora eruption, and there are no wood anatomical effects of the Laki eruption in 1783-1784. Apparently linked to a cluster of tropical eruptions in 1695 and 1696 CE, 85% BRs occurred in 1698. This new wood anatomical evidence is corroborated by the record of sulphur deposition in polar ice cores, and corresponds with catastrophic famine and unprecedented mortality in Scotland. The extremely rare occurrence of consecutive BRs in 1345 and 1346 marks the onset and spread of the Black Death, Europe's most devastating plague pandemic. In their ability to capture severe ephemeral cold spells, as short as several days or weeks, BR chronologies can help to investigate and understand the impacts of volcanism on climate and society.
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