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Sökning: WFRF:(Plue Jan)

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1.
  • De Frenne, Pieter, et al. (författare)
  • Plant movements and climate warming : intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : Wiley. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 202:2, s. 431-441
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting thermal environments can establish in nonlocal sites. We assess the intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils by planting a widespread grass of deciduous forests (Milium effusum) into an experimental common garden using combinations of seeds and soil sampled in 22 sites across its distributional range, and reflecting movement scenarios of up to 1600km. Furthermore, to determine temperature and forest-structural effects, the plants and soils were experimentally warmed and shaded. We found significantly positive effects of the difference between the temperature of the sites of seed and soil collection on growth and seedling emergence rates. Migrant plants might thus encounter increasingly favourable soil conditions while tracking the isotherms towards currently colder' soils. These effects persisted under experimental warming. Rising temperatures and light availability generally enhanced plant performance. Our results suggest that abiotic and biotic soil characteristics can shape climate change-driven plant movements by affecting growth of nonlocal migrants, a mechanism which should be integrated into predictions of future range shifts.
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2.
  • Acharya, Kamal Prasad, et al. (författare)
  • Latitudinal variation of life-history traits of an exotic and a native impatiens species in Europe
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Acta Oecologica. - : Elsevier BV. - 1146-609X .- 1873-6238. ; 81, s. 40-47
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Understanding the responses of invasive and native populations to environmental change is crucial for reliable predictions of invasions in the face of global change. While comparisons of responses across invasive species with different life histories have been performed before, comparing functional traits of congeneric native and invasive species may help to reveal driving factors associated with invasion. Here we compared morphological functional trait patterns of an invasive species (Impatiens parviflora) with its congeneric native species (I. noli-tangere) along an approximately 1600 km European latitudinal gradient from France (49 degrees 34'N) to Norway (63 degrees 40'N). Soil nitrogen was recorded during six weeks of the growing season, and light, soil moisture, and nutrient availability were estimated for each sampled population using community weighted means of indicator values for co-occurring species. Temperature data were gathered from nearby weather stations. Both the native and invasive species are taller at higher latitudes and this response is strongest in the invasive species. Seed mass and number of seeds per capsule increase in I. noli-tangere but decrease in I. parviflora towards higher latitudes. Surprisingly, plant height in the invasive I. parviflora decreases with increasing soil nitrogen availability. The latitudinal pattern in seed mass is positively related to temperature in I. noli-tangere and negatively in I. parviflora. Leaf area of both species decreases with increasing Ellenberg indicator values for nitrogen and light but increases with increasing soil moisture. Soil nitrogen concentrations and Ellenberg indicator values for nitrogen have significant positive (I. nolitangere) and negative (I. parviflora) effects on the number of seeds per capsule. Our results show that the native I. noli-tangere has efficient reproduction at its range edge while the invasive I. parviflora shows a marked decrease in seed size and seed number per capsule. These patterns are unrelated to the growth and obtained size of the plants: even low soil nitrogen availability in the north seemed not to limit plant growth and size. Our results suggest that the invasive I. parviflora tends to become more invasive at lower latitudes by producing heavier seeds and more seeds per capsule.
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3.
  • Albert, Aurélie, et al. (författare)
  • Seed dispersal by ungulates as an ecological filter : a trait-based meta-analysis
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Oikos. - : Wiley. - 0030-1299 .- 1600-0706. ; 124:9, s. 1109-1120
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Plant communities are often dispersal-limited and zoochory can be an efficient mechanism for plants to colonize new patches of potentially suitable habitat. We predicted that seed dispersal by ungulates acts as an ecological filter - which differentially affects individuals according to their characteristics and shapes species assemblages - and that the filter varies according to the dispersal mechanism (endozoochory, fur-epizoochory and hoof-epizoochory). We conducted two-step individual participant data meta-analyses of 52 studies on plant dispersal by ungulates in fragmented landscapes, comparing eight plant traits and two habitat indicators between dispersed and non-dispersed plants. We found that ungulates dispersed at least 44% of the available plant species. Moreover, some plant traits and habitat indicators increased the likelihood for plant of being dispersed. Persistent or nitrophilous plant species from open habitats or bearing dry or elongated diaspores were more likely to be dispersed by ungulates, whatever the dispersal mechanism. In addition, endozoochory was more likely for diaspores bearing elongated appendages whereas epizoochory was more likely for diaspores released relatively high in vegetation. Hoof-epizoochory was more likely for light diaspores without hooked appendages. Fur-epizoochory was more likely for diaspores with appendages, particularly elongated or hooked ones. We thus observed a gradient of filtering effect among the three dispersal mechanisms. Endozoochory had an effect of rather weak intensity (impacting six plant characteristics with variations between ungulate-dispersed and non-dispersed plant species mostly below 25%), whereas hoof-epizoochory had a stronger effect (eight characteristics included five ones with above 75% variation), and fur-epizoochory an even stronger one (nine characteristics included six ones with above 75% variation). Our results demonstrate that seed dispersal by ungulates is an ecological filter whose intensity varies according to the dispersal mechanism considered. Ungulates can thus play a key role in plant community dynamics and have implications for plant spatial distribution patterns at multiple scales.
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4.
  • Auffret, Alistair G., et al. (författare)
  • HistMapR : Rapid digitization of historical land-use maps in R
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Methods in Ecology and Evolution. - 2041-210X. ; 8:11, s. 1453-1457
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Habitat destruction and degradation represent serious threats to biodiversity, and quantification of land-use change over time is important for understanding the consequences of these changes to organisms and ecosystem service provision. Comparing land use between maps from different time periods allows estimation of the magnitude of habitat change in an area. However, digitizing historical maps manually is time-consuming and analyses of change are usually carried out at small spatial extents or at low resolutions. HistMapR contains a number of functions that can be used to semi-automatically digitize historical land use according to a map's colours, as defined by the RGB bands of the raster image. We test the method on different historical land-use map series and compare results to manual digitizations. Digitization is fast, and agreement with manually digitized maps of around 80-90% meets common targets for image classification. We hope that the ability to quickly classify large areas of historical land use will promote the inclusion of land-use change into analyses of biodiversity, species distributions and ecosystem services.
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5.
  • Auffret, Alistair G., et al. (författare)
  • More warm-adapted species in soil seed banks than in herb layer plant communities across Europe
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 111:5, s. 1009-1020
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Responses to climate change have often been found to lag behind the rate of warming that has occurred. In addition to dispersal limitation potentially restricting spread at leading range margins, the persistence of species in new and unsuitable conditions is thought to be responsible for apparent time-lags. Soil seed banks can allow plant communities to temporarily buffer unsuitable environmental conditions, but their potential to slow responses to long-term climate change is largely unknown. As local forest cover can also buffer the effects of a warming climate, it is important to understand how seed banks might interact with land cover to mediate community responses to climate change. We first related species-level seed bank persistence and distribution-derived climatic niches for 840 plant species. We then used a database of plant community data from grasslands, forests and intermediate successional habitats from across Europe to investigate relationships between seed banks and their corresponding herb layers in 2763 plots in the context of climate and land cover. We found that species from warmer climates and with broader distributions are more likely to have a higher seed bank persistence, resulting in seed banks that are composed of species with warmer and broader climatic distributions than their corresponding herb layers. This was consistent across our climatic extent, with larger differences (seed banks from even warmer climates relative to vegetation) found in grasslands. Synthesis. Seed banks have been shown to buffer plant communities through periods of environmental variability, and in a period of climate change might be expected to contain species reflecting past, cooler conditions. Here, we show that persistent seed banks often contain species with relatively warm climatic niches and those with wide climatic ranges. Although these patterns may not be primarily driven by species’ climatic adaptations, the prominence of such species in seed banks might still facilitate climate-driven community shifts. Additionally, seed banks may be related to ongoing trends regarding the spread of widespread generalist species into natural habitats, while cool-associated species may be at risk from both short- and long-term climatic variability and change. 
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6.
  • Auffret, Alistair G., et al. (författare)
  • Scale-dependent diversity effects of seed dispersal by a wild herbivore in fragmented grasslands
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Oecologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0029-8549 .- 1432-1939. ; 175:1, s. 305-313
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Dispersal limitation between habitat fragments is a known driver of landscape-scale biodiversity loss. In Europe, agricultural intensification during the twentieth century resulted in losses of both grassland habitat and traditional grassland seed dispersal vectors such as livestock. During the same period, populations of large wild herbivores have increased in the landscape. Usually studied in woodland ecosystems, these animals are found to disperse seeds from grasslands and other open habitats. We studied endozoochorous seed dispersal by roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in fragmented grasslands and grassland remnants, comparing dispersed subcommunities of plant species to those in the established vegetation and the seed bank. A total of 652 seedlings of 67 species emerged from 219 samples of roe deer dung. This included many grassland species, and several local grassland specialists. Dispersal had potentially different effects on diversity at different spatial scales. Almost all sites received seeds of species not observed in the vegetation or seed bank at that site, suggesting that local diversity might not be dispersal limited. This pattern was less evident at the landscape scale, where fewer new species were introduced. Nonetheless, long-distance dispersal by large wild herbivores might still provide connectivity between fragmented habitats within a landscape in the areas in which they are active. Finally, as only a subset of the available species were found to disperse in space as well as time, the danger of future biodiversity loss might still exist in many isolated grassland habitats.
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7.
  • Auffret, Alistair G., et al. (författare)
  • Spatial scale and specialization affect how biogeography and functional traits predict long-term patterns of community turnover
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Functional Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0269-8463 .- 1365-2435. ; 31:2, s. 436-443
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • 1. Immigration, extirpation and persistence of individual populations of species are key processes determining community responses to environmental change. However, they are difficult to study over long time periods without corresponding historical and modern-day species occurrences.2. We used historical and present-day plant species occurrence data from two different spatial scales (resolutions) to investigate the plant community turnover during the 20th century in a Baltic Sea archipelago. Patterns of turnover were analysed in relation to plant functional traits relating to dispersal and competition/persistence, as well as biogeographical variables.3. Turnover was largely driven by interactions between functional traits and measures of area, connectivity and distance to mainland. However, the combinations of traits and biogeographical variables that were most important for predicting immigration and extirpation differed between data sets, and between species associated with grassland management and the entire species pool.4. Taller plants were more likely to persist regardless of scale and biogeography, reflecting the grazing abandonment that occurred in the study area. Interactions between dispersal traits and biogeography were related to immigrations when the entire species pool was considered. However, increased dispersal potential, a smaller island size and increasing distance to mainland combined to promote extirpations in management-associated species. A perennial life span and seed banking contributed to species persistence. At the larger spatial scale, trait-driven turnover was not mediated by the biogeographical context.5. We showed that it is important to consider functional traits, biogeographical variables and their interactions when analysing community turnover over time. Furthermore, we found that the understanding of how combinations of traits and biogeography predict turnover depends on the source and spatial scale of the available data, and the species pool analysed.
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8.
  • Auffret, Alistair G., et al. (författare)
  • Super-regional land-use change and effects on the grassland specialist flora
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2041-1723. ; 9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Habitat loss through land-use change is the most pressing threat to biodiversity worldwide. European semi-natural grasslands have suffered an ongoing decline since the early twentieth century, but we have limited knowledge of how grassland loss has affected biodiversity across large spatial scales. We quantify land-use change over 50-70 years across a 175,000 km(2) super-region in southern Sweden, identifying a widespread loss of open cover and a homogenisation of landscape structure, although these patterns vary considerably depending on the historical composition of the landscape. Analysing species inventories from 46,796 semi-natural grasslands, our results indicate that habitat loss and degradation have resulted in a decline in grassland specialist plant species. Local factors are the best predictors of specialist richness, but the historical landscape predicts present-day richness better than the contemporary landscape. This supports the widespread existence of time-lagged biodiversity responses, indicating that further species losses could occur in the future.
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9.
  • Auffret, Alistair G., et al. (författare)
  • The spatial and temporal components of functional connectivity in fragmented landscapes
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 44, s. s51-S59
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Connectivity is key for understanding how ecological systems respond to the challenges of land-use change and habitat fragmentation. Structural and functional connectivity are both established concepts in ecology, but the temporal component of connectivity deserves more attention. Whereas functional connectivity is often associated with spatial patterns (spatial functional connectivity), temporal functional connectivity relates to the persistence of organisms in time, in the same place. Both temporal and spatial processes determine biodiversity responses to changes in landscape structure, and it is therefore necessary that all aspects of connectivity are considered together. In this perspective, we use a case study to outline why we believe that both the spatial and temporal components of functional connectivity are important for understanding biodiversity patterns in the present-day landscape, and how they can also help us to make better-informed decisions about conserving and restoring landscapes and improving resilience to future change.
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10.
  • Bagger-Sjöbäck, Dan, et al. (författare)
  • A Randomised, Double Blind Trial of N-Acetylcysteine for Hearing Protection during Stapes Surgery
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 10:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Otosclerosis is a disorder that impairs middle ear function, leading to conductive hearing loss. Surgical treatment results in large improvement of hearing at low sound frequencies, but high-frequency hearing often suffers. A likely reason for this is that inner ear sensory cells are damaged by surgical trauma and loud sounds generated during the operation. Animal studies have shown that antioxidants such as N-Acetylcysteine can protect the inner ear from noise, surgical trauma, and some ototoxic substances, but it is not known if this works in humans. This trial was performed to determine whether antioxidants improve surgical results at high frequencies. Methods We performed a randomized, double-blind and placebo-controlled parallel group clinical trial at three Swedish university clinics. Using block-stratified randomization, 156 adult patients undergoing stapedotomy were assigned to intravenous N-Acetylcysteine (150 mg/kg body weight) or matching placebo (1:1 ratio), starting one hour before surgery. The primary outcome was the hearing threshold at 6 and 8 kHz; secondary outcomes included the severity of tinnitus and vertigo. Findings One year after surgery, high-frequency hearing had improved 2.7 +/- 3.8 dB in the placebo group (67 patients analysed) and 2.4 +/- 3.7 dB in the treated group (72 patients; means +/- 95% confidence interval, p = 0.54; linear mixed model). Surgery improved tinnitus, but there was no significant intergroup difference. Post-operative balance disturbance was common but improved during the first year, without significant difference between groups. Four patients receiving N-Acetylcysteine experienced mild side effects such as nausea and vomiting. Conclusions N-Acetylcysteine has no effect on hearing thresholds, tinnitus, or balance disturbance after stapedotomy.
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11.
  • Caron, M. M., et al. (författare)
  • Divergent regeneration responses of two closely related tree species to direct abiotic and indirect biotic effects of climate change
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-1127 .- 1872-7042. ; 342, s. 21-29
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Changing temperature and precipitation can strongly influence plant reproduction. However, also biotic interactions might indirectly affect the reproduction and recruitment success of plants in the context of climate change. Information about the interactive effects of changes in abiotic and biotic factors is essential, but still largely lacking, to better understand the potential effects of a changing climate on plant populations. Here we analyze the regeneration from seeds of Acer platanoides and Acer pseudoplatanus, two currently secondary forest tree species from seven regions along a 2200 km-wide latitudinal gradient in Europe. We assessed the germination, seedling survival and growth during two years in a common garden experiment where temperature, precipitation and competition with the understory vegetation were manipulated. A. platanoides was more sensitive to changes in biotic conditions while A. pseudoplatanus was affected by both abiotic and biotic changes. In general, competition reduced (in A. platanoides) and warming enhanced (in A. pseudoplatanus) germination and survival, respectively. Reduced competition strongly increased the growth of A. platanoides seedlings. Seedling responses were independent of the conditions experienced by the mother tree during seed production and maturation. Our results indicate that, due to the negative effects of competition on the regeneration of A. platanoides, it is likely that under stronger competition (projected under future climatic conditions) this species will be negatively affected in terms of germination, survival and seedling biomass. Climate-change experiments including both abiotic and biotic factors constitute a key step forward to better understand the response of tree species' regeneration to climate change.
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12.
  • Caron, M. M., et al. (författare)
  • Impacts of warming and changes in precipitation frequency on the regeneration of two Acer species
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Flora. - : Elsevier BV. - 0367-2530 .- 1618-0585. ; 214, s. 24-33
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate projections indicate that temperatures will increase by up to 4.5 degrees C in Europe by the end of this century, and that more extreme rainfall events and longer intervening dry periods will take place. Climate change will likely affect all phases of the life cycle of plants, but plant reproduction has been suggested to be especially sensitive. Here, using a combination of approaches (soil heaters and different provenances along a latitudinal gradient), we analyzed the regeneration from seeds of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus, two tree species considered, from a management point of view, of secondary relevance. We studied germination, seedling survival and growth in a full-factorial experiment including warming and changes in watering frequency. Both species responded to warming, watering frequency and seed provenance, with stronger (negative) effects of warming and provenance than of watering frequency. In general, the central provenances performed better than the northernmost and southern-most provenances. We also detected interactive effects between warming, watering frequency and/or seed provenance. Based on these results, both species are expected to show dissimilar responses to the changes in the studied climatic factors, but also the impacts of climate change on the different phases of plant regeneration may differ in direction and magnitude. In general increases in the precipitation, frequency will stimulate germination while warming will reduce survival and growth. Moreover, the frequent divergent responses of seedlings along the latitudinal gradient suggest that climate change will likely have heterogeneous impacts across Europe, with stronger impacts in the northern and southern parts of the species' distribution ranges.
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13.
  • Caron, M. M., et al. (författare)
  • Interacting effects of warming and drought on regeneration and early growth of Acer pseudoplatanus and A. platanoides
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Plant Biology. - : Wiley. - 1435-8603 .- 1438-8677. ; 17:1, s. 52-62
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change is acting on several aspects of plant life cycles, including the sexual reproductive stage, which is considered amongst the most sensitive life-cycle phases. In temperate forests, it is expected that climate change will lead to a compositional change in community structure due to changes in the dominance of currently more abundant forest tree species. Increasing our understanding of the effects of climate change on currently secondary tree species recruitment is therefore important to better understand and forecast population and community dynamics in forests. Here, we analyse the interactive effects of rising temperatures and soil moisture reduction on germination, seedling survival and early growth of two important secondary European tree species, Acer pseudoplatanus and A.platanoides. Additionally, we analyse the effect of the temperature experienced by the mother tree during seed production by collecting seeds of both species along a 2200-km long latitudinal gradient. For most of the responses, A.platanoides showed higher sensitivity to the treatments applied, and especially to its joint manipulation, which for some variables resulted in additive effects while for others only partial compensation. In both species, germination and survival decreased with rising temperatures and/or soil moisture reduction while early growth decreased with declining soil moisture content. We conclude that although A.platanoides germination and survival were more affected after the applied treatments, its initial higher germination and larger seedlings might allow this species to be relatively more successful than A.pseudoplatanus in the face of climate change.
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14.
  • Caron, M. M., et al. (författare)
  • Latitudinal variation in seeds characteristics of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Plant Ecology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1385-0237 .- 1573-5052. ; 215:8, s. 911-925
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change will likely affect population dynamics of numerous plant species by modifying several aspects of the life cycle. Because plant regeneration from seeds may be particularly vulnerable, here we assess the possible effects of climate change on seed characteristics and present an integrated analysis of seven seed traits (nutrient concentrations, samara mass, seed mass, wing length, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass) of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus seeds collected along a wide latitudinal gradient from Italy to Norway. Seed traits were analyzed in relation to the environmental conditions experienced by the mother trees along the latitudinal gradient. We found that seed traits of A. platanoides were more influenced by the climatic conditions than those of A. pseudoplatanus. Additionally, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass of A. platanoides were strongly related to the seed mass and nutrient concentration. While A. platanoides seeds were more influenced by the environmental conditions (generally negatively affected by rising temperatures), compared to A. pseudoplatanus, A. platanoides still showed higher germination percentage and seedling biomass than A. pseudoplatanus. Thus, further research on subsequent life-history stages of both species is needed. The variation in seed quality observed along the climatic gradient highlights the importance of studying the possible impact of climate change on seed production and species demography.
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15.
  • Ceulemans, Tobias, et al. (författare)
  • Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in European grasslands under nutrient pollution
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 28:12, s. 1796-1805
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aim: Our aim was to quantify the extent to which nutrient pollution explains arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal community richness and composition.Location: Europe.Time period: 2014-2016.Major taxa studied: Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi.Methods: We sampled soils of calcareous and acidic grasslands and roots of 34 host plant species across a large geographical gradient of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and soil phosphorus availability. Furthermore, we performed an independent pairwise comparison between fertilized and unfertilized grasslands in Belgium and Iceland to compare results.Results: We found that nitrogen deposition had a significant negative relationship to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal richness, with a negative community threshold of 7.7 kg N/ha/year corresponding to the greatest reduction in operational taxonomic units. Additionally, we found that soil phosphorus had a significant negative relationship to mycorrhizal fungal richness.Main conclusions: Our results highlight the necessity to revisit the critical loads of atmospheric nitrogen deposition used in European environmental policy, currently set at 10-15 kg N/ha/year. Importantly, our observed threshold of 7.7 kg N/ha/year does not correspond to a critical load below which there is no environmental harm, because the least negative changes in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities were observed at < 5 kg N/ha/year. Therefore, to avoid compromising the policy tenet of no environmental harm with respect to grassland mycorrhizal fungi, areas of zero tolerance to nitrogen pollution should be delimited. Our results also indicate that environmental policy biased towards reducing nitrogen pollution alone will fail to preserve mycorrhizal biodiversity in European grasslands. We advocate increased policy attention to avoid phosphorus enrichment, particularly through agricultural fertilization. Here too, areas of zero phosphorus input, ideally set in the currently unpolluted (or least polluted) areas, seem key for effective environmental policy, because elevated levels of soil phosphorus after phosphorus fertilization are known to be extremely persistent.
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16.
  • Cousins, Sara AO, et al. (författare)
  • Landskapsindikatorer för biologisk mångfald
  • 2022
  • Rapport (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Det övergripande syftet med detta projekt är att identifiera landskapsindikatorergenom att integrera tillgänglig statistik och geodata tillsammans med ekologiskteori för att identifiera hur förlust av gräsmarker och småhabitat i jordbrukslandskappåverkar mångfald av gräsmarksväxter nationellt. I projektet har vi använt historiskadataunderlag; statistik, kartor, och satellitbilder tillsammans med geografisk analysoch vegetationsinventeringar. 48 jordbrukslandskap valdes ut i fyra olika biogeografiskaregioner; Norrbotten, Gävleborg, Södermanland och Skåne. Studieandskapenvar cirkelrunda med en diameter på 2 km och valdes ut baserat på tillgången av brahistoriskt kartmaterial från 1800-talets andra hälft. De historiska kartorna rektifieradesoch digitaliserades i ett geografiskt informationssystem varefter markanvändningentolkades med fokus på gräsmark och åker. Som ett mått på den biologiska mångfalden kopplat till gräsmarkshabitat inventerades kärlväxter i 20 stycken slumpmässigt utlagda 1m2 rutor i små resthabitat av gräsmarkskaraktär (framförallt åkerholmar, vägkanter, skogsbryn) och 10 stycken 1m2 rutor slumpmässigt utlagda i en centralt belägen betesmark (om en sådan fanns) inom varje jordbrukslandskap. Ett annat mått på biologisk mångfald är genetisk variation. Den genetiska variationen hos gräsmarksspecialisten liten blåklocka (Campanula rotundifolia) analyserades genom att blad samlades in från 25 olika populationer, utspridda i varje jordbrukslandskap. Växternas mångfald och den genetiska mångfalden hos liten blåklocka inventerades inom en 1 km bred cirkel i mitten av varje studielandskap. Resultaten blev följande:Det lämpligaste historiska dataunderlaget att använda vid landskapsanalyser berortill stor del på vilken rumslig noggrannhet och upplösning av analys som efterfrågas.Jordbruksstatistiken anges årligen över socknen men socknarna varierar stort i storlekoch det kan vara svårt att fånga förändringar som påverkar gräsmarker i stora socknarmed stor andel skog. Historiska kartor har en hög rumslig upplösning men endast ettfåtal platser har ett äldre kartmaterial. Det äldre kartmaterialet täcker oftast ett relativtlitet område då utmarkerna sällan karterades. Historiska data bör tolkas med en förståelseför den begränsade informationen som kan extraheras från underlaget. Detär önskvärt att fler historiska kartor digitaliseras i geografiska informationssystemför att underlätta vidare analys. Den ekonomiska kartan kan vara ett bra tillskott föratt analysera förändring över tid men det måste ske med förbehåll då kartmaterialetär av olika ålder i olika delar av landet och svårigheten att med säkerhet separera bergi dagen, kalhygge och gräsmark. Historiska satellitbilder fungerar dåligt då det är svårtatt få både molnfria och snöfria bilder över alla regioner under vegetationsperiodenoch att det inte går att använda samma träningsytor över hela landet i en analys. Metodenatt använda maskininlärning och Sentinel-2 L2A för att övervaka naturbetesmarkerverkar mycket lovande kan vidareutvecklas.För 150 år sedan fanns det i snitt 42 % gräsmark (öppen/halvöppen mark, ej åker)inom de 48 jordbrukslandskapen. Idag finns det 2 % av den ursprungliga gräsmarkenkvar i Norrbotten och Gävleborg, 6% i Skåne och 10% i Södermanland. Många jordbrukslandskap har ingen gräsmark kvar alls, trots att alla 48 jordbrukslandskap fortfarande är jordbrukslandskap. Resultatet visar att andelen naturbetesmarker minskat betydligt mer än vad som visats i tidigare studier.Den avgörande faktorn för dagens artrikedom av växter i jordbrukslandskapet är attdet finns betesmarker i landskapet. Naturbetesmarker med lång kontinuerlig hävd ärviktiga, och ju större betesmark desto bättre. Småhabitat av tidigare gräsmark hade enrelativt låg andel arter, jämfört med tidigare studier. Vägrenar i de nordligare regionernaär breda, på grund av snöröjning, och kan ha en relativt hög andel gräsmarksspecialister.I jordbrukslandskap med få eller inga betesmarker spelar småhabitat en stor roll för många gräsmarksspecialister men småhabitaten kan dock inte kompensera för betade gräsmarker, speciellt inte naturbetesmarker. Analys av gräsmarksspecialisten liten blåklocka visade att dess populationsstorlek spelar stor roll för den genetiska diversiteten. Ju större population i landskapet desto högre genetisk variation. Populationsstorlek var högre med ökad andel betesmark, naturbetesmark och variation i jordbrukslandskapet på nationell nivå. På regional nivå blir resultaten inte lika tydliga. Bristen på betesmark i många av jordbrukslandskapen försvårar statistiskt robusta analyser. Flera av de 48 jordbrukslandskap som ingick i analysen har tidigare haft naturbetesmarker, enligt GIS-skiktet tillhörande TUVA-databasen, men var ohävdade och övergivna sedan flera år tillbaka vid tidpunkten för våra växtinventeringar. För att kunna göra landskapsanalyser och övervaka gräsmarkernas situation är det viktigt att både databasen och dess nedladdningsbara GIS-filer hålls uppdaterade. Resultaten visar på vikten att inkludera vardagslandskap och landskap från flera av Sveriges olika regioner. Fokus på de flesta tidigare landskapsekologiska studierbaseras på jordbrukslandskap med en relativt hög andel biologisk viktiga habitat ochfrån södra Sverige. Genom att analysera landskapsförändringar från ett stort antaljordbrukslandskap från flera biogeografiska regioner i Sverige ger denna studie enhögre generalitet och pekar ännu tydligare på vikten att öka insatserna för att bevaraoch restaurera gräsmarker nationellt innan dess biologiska värden går förlorade.
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17.
  • Cousins, Sara, et al. (författare)
  • Landskapsindikatorer för biologisk mångfald : Inga betesdjur, ingen mångfald
  • 2022
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Det övergripande syftet med detta projekt är att identifiera landskapsindikatorer genom att integrera tillgänglig statistik och geodata tillsammans med ekologiskteori för att identifiera hur förlust av gräsmarker och småhabitat i jordbrukslandskap påverkar mångfald av gräsmarksväxter nationellt. I projektet har vi använt historiska dataunderlag; statistik, kartor, och satellitbilder tillsammans med geografisk analys och vegetationsinventeringar. 48 jordbrukslandskap valdes ut i fyra olika biogeografiska regioner; Norrbotten, Gävleborg, Södermanland och Skåne. Studieandskapen var cirkelrunda med en diameter på 2 km och valdes ut baserat på tillgången av bra historiskt kartmaterial från 1800-talets andra hälft.De historiska kartorna rektifierades och digitaliserades i ett geografiskt informationssystem varefter markanvändningen tolkades med fokus på gräsmark och åker. Som ett mått på den biologiska mångfalden kopplat till gräsmarkshabitat inventerades kärlväxter i 20 stycken slumpmässigt utlagda 1m2 rutor i små resthabitat av gräsmarkskaraktär (framförallt åkerholmar, vägkanter, skogsbryn) och 10 stycken 1m2rutor slumpmässigt utlagda i en centralt belägen betesmark (om en sådan fanns) inom varje jordbrukslandskap. Ett annat mått på biologisk mångfald är genetisk variation. Den genetiska variationen hos gräsmarksspecialisten liten blåklocka (Campanula rotundifolia) analyserades genom att blad samlades in från 25 olika populationer, utspridda i varje jordbrukslandskap. Växternas mångfald och den genetiska mångfalden hos liten blåklocka inventerades inom en 1 km bred cirkel i mitten av varje studielandskap.Resultaten blev följande:Det lämpligaste historiska dataunderlaget att använda vid landskapsanalyser beror till stor del på vilken rumslig noggrannhet och upplösning av analys som efterfrågas. Jordbruksstatistiken anges årligen över socknen men socknarna varierar stort i storlek och det kan vara svårt att fånga förändringar som påverkar gräsmarker i stora socknarmed stor andel skog. Historiska kartor har en hög rumslig upplösning men endast ett fåtal platser har ett äldre kartmaterial. Det äldre kartmaterialet täcker oftast ett relativt litet område då utmarkerna sällan karterades. Historiska data bör tolkas med en förståelseför den begränsade informationen som kan extraheras från underlaget. Det är önskvärt att fler historiska kartor digitaliseras i geografiska informationssystemför att underlätta vidare analys. Den ekonomiska kartan kan vara ett bra tillskott för att analysera förändring över tid men det måste ske med förbehåll då kartmaterialet är av olika ålder i olika delar av landet och svårigheten att med säkerhet separera bergi dagen, kalhygge och gräsmark. Historiska satellitbilder fungerar dåligt då det är svårt att få både molnfria och snöfria bilder över alla regioner under vegetationsperioden och att det inte går att använda samma träningsytor över hela landet i en analys. Metoden att använda maskininlärning och Sentinel-2 L2A för att övervaka naturbetesmarker verkar mycket lovande kan vidareutvecklas. För 150 år sedan fanns det i snitt 42 % gräsmark (öppen/halvöppen mark, ej åker) inom de 48 jordbrukslandskapen. Idag finns det 2 % av den ursprungliga gräsmarken kvar i Norrbotten och Gävleborg, 6% i Skåne och 10% i Södermanland. Många jordbrukslandskap har ingen gräsmark kvar alls, trots att alla 48 jordbrukslandskap fortfarande är jordbrukslandskap. Resultatet visar att andelen naturbetesmarker minskat betydligt mer än vad som visats i tidigare studier.Den avgörande faktorn för dagens artrikedom av växter i jordbrukslandskapet är att det finns betesmarker i landskapet. Naturbetesmarker med lång kontinuerlig hävd är viktiga, och ju större betesmark desto bättre. Småhabitat av tidigare gräsmark hade en relativt låg andel arter, jämfört med tidigare studier. Vägrenar i de nordligare regionerna är breda, på grund av snöröjning, och kan ha en relativt hög andel gräsmarksspecialister. I jordbrukslandskap med få eller inga betesmarker spelar småhabitat en stor roll för många gräsmarksspecialister men småhabitaten kan dock inte kompenseraför betade gräsmarker, speciellt inte naturbetesmarker. Analys av gräsmarksspecialisten liten blåklocka visade att dess populationsstorlek spelar stor roll för den genetiska diversiteten. Ju större population i landskapet desto högre genetisk variation. Populationsstorlek var högre med ökad andel betesmark, naturbetesmark och variation i jordbrukslandskapet på nationell nivå. På regional nivå blir resultaten inte lika tydliga. Bristen på betesmark i många av jordbrukslandskapen försvårar statistiskt robusta analyser. Flera av de 48 jordbrukslandskap som ingick i analysen har tidigare haft naturbetesmarker, enligt GIS-skiktet tillhörande TUVA-databasen, men var ohävdade och övergivna sedan flera år tillbaka vid tidpunkten för våra växtinventeringar. För att kunna göra landskapsanalyser och övervaka gräsmarkernas situation är det viktigt att både databasen och dess nedladdningsbara GIS-filer hålls uppdaterade. Resultaten visar på vikten att inkludera vardagslandskap och landskap från flera av Sveriges olika regioner. Fokus på de flesta tidigare landskapsekologiska studierbaseras på jordbrukslandskap med en relativt hög andel biologisk viktiga habitat och från södra Sverige. Genom att analysera landskapsförändringar från ett stort antal jordbrukslandskap från flera biogeografiska regioner i Sverige ger denna studie en högre generalitet och pekar ännu tydligare på vikten att öka insatserna för att bevara och restaurera gräsmarker nationellt innan dess biologiska värden går förlorade.
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18.
  • De Frenne, Pieter, et al. (författare)
  • Biological Flora of the British Isles : Milium effusum
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 105:3, s. 839-858
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • 1. This account presents information on all aspects of the biology of Milium effusum L. (Wood Millet) that are relevant to understanding its ecological characteristics and behaviour. The main topics are presented within the standard framework of the Biological Flora of the British Isles: distribution, habitat, communities, responses to biotic factors, responses to environment, structure and physiology, phenology, floral and seed characters, herbivores and disease, history, and conservation.2. The grass Milium effusum is a common species of mature woodland in central and southern England, but is less common in the wetter parts of northern England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland. Worldwide, the species is native to many temperate, boreal, subarctic and subalpine parts of the northern hemisphere: from eastern North America across most of Europe (excluding Mediterranean climates) to the Ural Mountains and Black Sea, extending eastwards to the Himalaya, Korea and Japan.3. Wood Millet is a shade-tolerant, relatively tall grass (up to 1.8 m) producing up to 700 caryopses per individual. It is characteristic of temperate deciduous woodland, but can also occur in other woodland and forest types and even in scrub, alpine meadows, along railways and roads, and on rocks. In woods, it is one of the most conspicuous plants of the herb layer in the early summer after the disappearance of spring flowering species. While the species is generally considered an ancient woodland indicator in England and western Europe, it is also known to colonize secondary, post-agricultural forests relatively rapidly in other areas such as Denmark, southern Sweden and Poland.4. The species has a wide amplitude in terms of soil acidity and nutrient availability, but predominantly grows on soils of intermediate soil fertility and soil pH and with high organic matter concentration. However, M. effusum can tolerate large quantities of tree-leaf litter on the forest floor and is able to grow on very acidic soils.5. Changes in land use, climate, densities of large herbivores and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen are having effects on populations of Wood Millet. Significant responses of the life-history traits and population characteristics have been detected in response to environmental variation and to experimental treatments of temperature, nutrients, light and acidity. In many of its habitats across its range, M. effusum is currently becoming more frequent. During the last century, its mean elevation of occurrence in upland areas of Europe has also increased by several hundreds of metres. Typically, management actions are directed towards the conservation of its main habitat type (e.g. ancient woodlands of the Milio-Fagetum association) rather than to the species specifically.
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19.
  • De Frenne, Pieter, et al. (författare)
  • Latitudinal gradients as natural laboratories to infer species' responses to temperature
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 101:3, s. 784-795
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Macroclimatic variation along latitudinal gradients provides an excellent natural laboratory to investigate the role of temperature and the potential impacts of climate warming on terrestrial organisms. Here, we review the use of latitudinal gradients for ecological climate change research, in comparison with altitudinal gradients and experimental warming, and illustrate their use and caveats with a meta-analysis of latitudinal intraspecific variation in important life-history traits of vascular plants. We first provide an overview of latitudinal patterns in temperature and other abiotic and biotic environmental variables in terrestrial ecosystems. We then assess the latitudinal intraspecific variation present in five key life-history traits [plant height, specific leaf area (SLA), foliar nitrogen:phosphorus (N:P) stoichiometry, seed mass and root:shoot (R:S) ratio] in natural populations or common garden experiments across a total of 98 plant species. Intraspecific leaf N:P ratio and seed mass significantly decreased with latitude in natural populations. Conversely, the plant height decreased and SLA increased significantly with latitude of population origin in common garden experiments. However, less than a third of the investigated latitudinal transect studies also formally disentangled the effects of temperature from other environmental drivers which potentially hampers the translation from latitudinal effects into a temperature signal. Synthesis. Latitudinal gradients provide a methodological set-up to overcome the drawbacks of other observational and experimental warming methods. Our synthesis indicates that many life-history traits of plants vary with latitude but the translation of latitudinal clines into responses to temperature is a crucial step. Therefore, especially adaptive differentiation of populations and confounding environmental factors other than temperature need to be considered. More generally, integrated approaches of observational studies along temperature gradients, experimental methods and common garden experiments increasingly emerge as the way forward to further our understanding of species and community responses to climate warming.
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20.
  • De Pauw, Karen, et al. (författare)
  • Forest understorey communities respond strongly to light in interaction with forest structure, but not to microclimate warming
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : Wiley. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 233:1, s. 219-235
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Forests harbour large spatiotemporal heterogeneity in canopy structure. This variation drives the microclimate and light availability at the forest floor. So far, we do not know how light availability and sub-canopy temperature interactively mediate the impact of macroclimate warming on understorey communities.We therefore assessed the functional response of understorey plant communities to warming and light addition in a full factorial experiment installed in temperate deciduous forests across Europe along natural microclimate, light and macroclimate gradients. Furthermore, we related these functional responses to the species’ life-history syndromes and thermal niches.We found no significant community responses to the warming treatment. The light treatment, however, had a stronger impact on communities, mainly due to responses by fast-colonizing generalists and not by slow-colonizing forest specialists. The forest structure strongly mediated the response to light addition and also had a clear impact on functional traits and total plant cover.The effects of short-term experimental warming were small and suggest a time-lag in the response of understorey species to climate change. Canopy disturbance, for instance due to drought, pests or logging, has a strong and immediate impact and particularly favours generalists in the understorey in structurally complex forests.
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21.
  • De Pauw, Karen, et al. (författare)
  • Nutrient-demanding and thermophilous plants dominate urban forest-edge vegetation across temperate Europe
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Journal of Vegetation Science. - 1100-9233 .- 1654-1103. ; 35:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • QuestionsForests are highly fragmented across the globe. For urban forests in particular, fragmentation increases the exposure to local warming caused by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. We here aim to quantify edge effects on herbaceous understorey vegetation in urban forests, and test whether these effects interact with forest structural complexity.LocationWe set up a pan-European study at the continental scale including six urban forests in Zurich, Paris, Katowice, Brussels, Bremen, and Stockholm.MethodsWe recorded understorey plant communities from the edge towards the interior of urban forests. Within each urban forest, we studied edge-to-interior gradients in paired stands with differing forest structural complexity. Community composition was analysed based on species specialism, life form, light, nutrient, acidity and disturbance indicator values and species' thermal niches.ResultsWe found that herbaceous communities at urban forest edges supported more generalists and forbs but fewer ferns than in forests' interiors. A buffered summer microclimate proved crucial for the presence of fern species. The edge communities contained more thermophilous, disturbance-tolerant, nutrient-demanding and basiphilous plant species, a pattern strongly confirmed by corresponding edge-to-interior gradients in microclimate, soil and light conditions in the understorey. Additionally, plots with a lower canopy cover and higher light availability supported higher numbers of both generalists and forest specialists. Even though no significant interactions were found between the edge distance and forest structural complexity, opposing additive effects indicated that a dense canopy can be used to buffer negative edge effects.ConclusionThe urban environment poses a multifaceted filter on understorey plant communities which contributes to significant differences in community composition between urban forest edges and interiors. For urban biodiversity conservation and the buffering of edge effects, it will be key to maintain dense canopies near urban forest edges. The urban environment poses a multifaceted filter on understorey plant communities which contributes to significant differences in community composition between urban forest edges and interiors. For urban biodiversity conservation and the buffering of edge effects, it will be key to maintain dense canopies near urban forest edges.image
  •  
22.
  • De Pauw, Karen, et al. (författare)
  • Taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity of understorey plants respond differently to environmental conditions in European forest edges
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 109:7, s. 2629-2648
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Forest biodiversity world-wide is affected by climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation, and today 20% of the forest area is located within 100 m of a forest edge. Still, forest edges harbour a substantial amount of terrestrial biodiversity, especially in the understorey. The functional and phylogenetic diversity of forest edges have never been studied simultaneously at a continental scale, in spite of their importance for the forests' functioning and for communities' resilience to future change.We assessed nine metrics of taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity of understorey plant communities in 225 plots spread along edge-to-interior gradients in deciduous forests across Europe. We then derived the relative effects and importance of edaphic, stand and landscape conditions on the diversity metrics.Here, we show that taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity metrics respond differently to environmental conditions. We report an increase in functional diversity in plots with stronger microclimatic buffering, in spite of their lower taxonomic species richness. Additionally, we found increased taxonomic species richness at the forest edge, but in forests with intermediate and high openness, these communities had decreased phylogenetic diversity.Functional and phylogenetic diversity revealed complementary and important insights in community assembly mechanisms. Several environmental filters were identified as potential drivers of the patterns, such as a colder macroclimate and less buffered microclimate for functional diversity. For phylogenetic diversity, edaphic conditions were more important. Interestingly, plots with lower soil pH had decreased taxonomic species richness, but led to increased phylogenetic diversity, challenging the phylogenetic niche conservatism concept.Synthesis. Taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity of understorey communities in forest edges respond differently to environmental conditions, providing insight into different community assembly mechanisms and their interactions. Therefore, it is important to look beyond species richness with phylogenetic and functional diversity approaches when focusing on forest understorey biodiversity.
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23.
  • De Pauw, Karen, et al. (författare)
  • The urban heat island accelerates litter decomposition through microclimatic warming in temperate urban forests
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Urban Ecosystems. - 1083-8155 .- 1573-1642.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Forests worldwide are experiencing fragmentation, with especially important consequences for ecosystems bordering urbanized areas. Urban forests are exposed to local warming due to the urban heat island which affects their biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. A key ecosystem function affecting carbon and nutrient cycling in forests is litter decomposition, a process driven by the local microclimate. Thus, our aim was to clarify the impact of the urban heat island on litter decomposition in urban forests. We studied soil microclimate and litter decomposition in six urban forests across Europe and along local gradients from the urban forest edge to the interior. To quantify decomposition independent from local forest composition and litter quality, we used standardized green tea and rooibos tea litterbags. We determined the role of the soil microclimate and other environmental drivers for litter decomposition. Secondly, we assessed effects of edge proximity and landscape context on the soil microclimate. Soil characteristics were only driving green tea and not rooibos tea decomposition. On the contrary, higher soil temperatures resulted in faster rates of litter decomposition for both green and rooibos tea and were related to the proximity to the forest edge and the proportion of built-up area in the landscape. Via structural equation modelling we detected cascading effects of the urban heat island on litter decomposition. Such changes in litter decomposition have the potential to alter the soil food web, nutrient cycling and carbon drawdown in urban forests, and could result in significant interactions between urbanisation and ongoing climate change.
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24.
  • De Pauw, Karen, et al. (författare)
  • Urban forest microclimates across temperate Europe are shaped by deep edge effects and forest structure
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - 0168-1923 .- 1873-2240. ; 341
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The urban heat island (UHI) causes strong warming of cities and their urban forests worldwide. Especially urban forest edges are strongly exposed to the UHI effect, which could impact urban forest biodiversity and functioning. However, it is not known to what extent the UHI effect alters edge-to-interior microclimatic gradients within urban forests and whether this depends on the forests' structure.Here we quantified gradients of air temperature, relative air humidity and vapour pressure deficits (VPD) along urban forest edge-to-interior transects with contrasting stand structures in six major cities across Europe. We performed continuous hourly microclimate measurements for two consecutive years and analysed the magnitude and depth of edge effects, as well as forest structural drivers of microclimatic variation.Compared to edge studies in rural temperate forests, we found that edge effects reached deeper into urban forests, at least up to 50 m. Throughout the year, urban forest edges were warmer and drier compared to forest interiors, with the largest differences occurring during summer and daytime. Not only maximum, but also mean and minimum temperatures were higher at the urban forest edge up to large edge distances (at least 85 m). Denser forests with a higher plant area index buffered high air temperatures and VPDs from spring to autumn.We conclude that urban forest edges are unique ecotones with specific microclimates shaped by the UHI effect. Both forest edges and interiors showed increased buffering capacities with higher forest canopy density. We advocate for the conservation and expansion of urban forests which can buffer increasingly frequent and intense climate extremes. To this end, urban forest managers are encouraged to aim for multi-layered dense forest canopies and consider edge buffer zones of at least 50 m wide.
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25.
  • Elmhagen, Bodil, et al. (författare)
  • Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 20:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6 degrees C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.
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