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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Moreno, Claudia R. C., et al.
(författare)
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Are We Ready to Implement Circadian Hygiene Interventions and Programs?
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 19:24
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Circadian hygiene, a concept not to be confused with the notion of public or social hygiene, should be discussed among experts and society. Light–dark cycles and other possible synchronizers of the human circadian timing system affect ways of life, including sleeping, eating, working and physical activity. Some of these behaviors have also been investigated individually as synchronizers (e.g., eating times). Therefore, the knowledge held today about circadian rhythms, and their implications for health, allows future perspectives in this field to be mapped. The present article summarizes the latest knowledge on factors influencing circadian rhythms to discuss a perspective for the future of health promotion based on circadian hygiene. However, it is important to highlight that circadian hygiene is the product of an imbrication of individual and societal involvement. First, it is important to adopt practices and devise public health policies in line with circadian hygiene. Second, individual healthy habits require internal rhythms to be examined. Last, the research agenda on circadian hygiene can be developed on a public as well as individual level, raising the question as to how much society is willing to embrace this change.
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- Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin, et al.
(författare)
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Thermal and Hydraulic Performances of Carbon and Metallic Oxides-Based Nanomaterials
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nanomaterials. - : MDPI AG. - 2079-4991. ; 12:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For companies, notably in the realms of energy and power supply, the essential requirement for highly efficient thermal transport solutions has become a serious concern. Current research highlighted the use of metallic oxides and carbon-based nanofluids as heat transfer fluids. This work examined two carbon forms (PEG@GNPs & PEG@TGr) and two types of metallic oxides (Al2O3 & SiO2) in a square heated pipe in the mass fraction of 0.1 wt.%. Laboratory conditions were as follows: 6401 ≤ Re ≤ 11,907 and wall heat flux = 11,205 W/m2. The effective thermal–physical and heat transfer properties were assessed for fully developed turbulent fluid flow at 20–60 °C. The thermal and hydraulic performances of nanofluids were rated in terms of pumping power, performance index (PI), and performance evaluation criteria (PEC). The heat transfer coefficients of the nanofluids improved the most: PEG@GNPs = 44.4%, PEG@TGr = 41.2%, Al2O3 = 22.5%, and SiO2 = 24%. Meanwhile, the highest augmentation in the Nu of the nanofluids was as follows: PEG@GNPs = 35%, PEG@TGr = 30.1%, Al2O3 = 20.6%, and SiO2 = 21.9%. The pressure loss and friction factor increased the highest, by 20.8–23.7% and 3.57–3.85%, respectively. In the end, the general performance of nanofluids has shown that they would be a good alternative to the traditional working fluids in heat transfer requests.
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- Dhaidan, Nabeel S., et al.
(författare)
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Enhancing the thermal performance of an agricultural solar greenhouse by geothermal energy using an earth-air heat exchanger system: A review
- 2024
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Ingår i: Geothermics. - : Elsevier. - 0375-6505 .- 1879-3576. ; 123
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In recent years, yearly climatic changes, continuous temperature increases, and the impact of global environmental change have seriously affected agricultural production. The solar greenhouse (SG) system is designed to maintain suitable temperatures and humidity levels for cultivating plants. For this purpose, an earth-to-air heat exchanger (EAHE) can be coupled with the SG to provide the necessary heating and cooling required to maintain suitable conditions for vegetation. This review presents a comprehensive literature survey on SG-EAHE systems. The thermal characteristics of heating and cooling modes are presented for SG-EAHE systems. Reports indicate that integrating EAHE with the SG can meet the heating and cooling needs of the SG while significantly reducing water consumption. The design parameters of EAHE, such as configuration, pipe diameter, pipe length, and buried depth, can affect the performance of SG-EAHE systems. Additionally, integrating photovoltaic (PV) and photovoltaic/thermal (PVT) systems with SG-EAHE systems was discussed. Moreover, the challenges and prospective aspects of SG-EAHE systems were identified.
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- ElSayed, Doaa Ali, et al.
(författare)
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Validation and Cultural Adaptation of the Parent Attitudes about Childhood Vaccines (PACV) Questionnaire in Arabic Language Widely Spoken in a Region with a High Prevalence of COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy
- 2022
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Ingår i: Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease. - : MDPI AG. - 2414-6366. ; 7:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The parents’ attitude toward vaccinating children and adolescents against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains inconsistent and needs further elucidation. The high rates of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region require intensive research to understand the determinants of this phenomenon. This study aimed to validate a version of the Parent Attitudes about Childhood Vaccines (PACV) tool in Arabic, the most widely spoken language in the MENA. The study objectives included the investigation of Arab-speaking parents’ views regarding COVID-19 vaccination of their children. Parents living in Egypt with at least one child aged 5–18 years were eligible to participate in the study that was conducted through an online survey with 15 PACV items. The PACV tool was translated into Arabic using forward and backward translation. To assess the psychometric properties of the Arabic version of PACV, Pearson’s correlation coefficient and exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis (EFA and CFA) were performed. A total of 223 parents participated in the study: 59.82% aged 30–39 years, 69.20% were females, 46.19% were university-educated, and 40.63% had one child. The overall Cronbach’s alpha for the Arabic version of PACV was 0.799. The EFA of the 15 items showed that three domains were most conceptually equivalent. All items had a positive significant correlation with the mean score of each subscale except for item 4 (r = 0.016, p = 0.811). Regression analyses results indicated that education, previous COVID-19 infection, vaccine status of parents, and PACV score were significantly associated with the intention of the parents to vaccinate their children against COVID-19. The CFA results showed that most of the factor loadings were statistically significant (p < 0.010) except for items 4 and 7. However, the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA = 0.080) and the standardized root mean squared residual (SRMR = 0.080) indicated that the model had a reasonable fit, and the three factors were good in reproducing each correlation. Our study results indicated the validity and reliability of the PACV instrument in Arabic language. Consequently, the PACV can be used to assess COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in a majority of MENA countries for better delineation of this highly prevalent phenomenon in the region.
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- Homod, Raad Z., et al.
(författare)
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Deep clustering of cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning to optimize multi chiller HVAC systems for smart buildings energy management
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Building Engineering. - : Elsevier. - 2352-7102. ; 65
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Chillers are responsible for almost half of the total energy demand in buildings. Hence, the obligation of control systems of multi-chiller due to changes indoor environments is one of the most significant parts of a smart building. Such a controller is described as a nonlinear and multi-objective algorithm, and its fabrication is crucial to achieving the optimal balance between indoor thermal comfort and running a minimum number of chillers. This work proposes deep clustering of cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (DCCMARL) as well-suited to such system control, which supports centralized control by learning of agents. In MARL, since the learning of agents is based on discrete sets of actions and stats, this drawback significantly affects the model of agents for representing their actions with efficient performance. This drawback becomes considerably worse when increasing the number of agents, due to the increased complexity of solving MARL, which makes modeling policy very challenging. Therefore, the DCCMARL of multi-objective reinforcement learning is leveraging powerful frameworks of a hybrid clustering algorithm to deal with complexity and uncertainty, which is a critical factor that influences to the achievement of high levels of a performance action. The results showed that the ability of agents to manipulate the behavior of the smart building could improve indoor thermal conditions, as well as save energy up to 44.5% compared to conventional methods. It seems reasonable to conclude that agents' performance is influenced by what type of model structure.
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