| 1. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 2. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 3. |
- Beral, V., et al.
(författare)
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Ovarian cancer and smoking: individual participant meta-analysis including 28 114 women with ovarian cancer from 51 epidemiological studies
- 2012
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Ingår i: The Lancet Oncology. - 1474-5488. ; 13:9, s. 946-956
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Smoking has been linked to mucinous ovarian cancer, but its effects on other ovarian cancer subtypes and on overall ovarian cancer risk are unclear, and the findings from most studies with relevant data are unpublished. To assess these associations, we review the published and unpublished evidence. Methods Eligible epidemiological studies were identified by electronic searches, review articles, and discussions with colleagues. Individual participant data for 28 114 women with and 94 942 without ovarian cancer from 51 epidemiological studies were analysed centrally, yielding adjusted relative risks (RRs) of ovarian cancer in smokers compared with never smokers. Findings After exclusion of studies with hospital controls, in which smoking could have affected recruitment, overall ovarian cancer incidence was only slightly increased in current smokers compared with women who had never smoked (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.11, p=0.01). Of 17 641 epithelial cancers with specified histology, 2314 (13%) were mucinous, 2360 (13%) endometrioid, 969 (5%) clear-cell, and 9086 (52%) serous. Smoking-related risks varied substantially across these subtypes (p(heterogeneity)<0.0001). For mucinous cancers, incidence was increased in current versus never smokers (1.79, 95% CI 1.60-2.00, p<0.0001), but the increase was mainly in borderline malignant rather than in fully malignant tumours (2.25, 95% CI 1.91-2.65 vs 1.49, 1.28-1.73; p(heterogeneity)=0.01; almost half the mucinous tumours were only borderline malignant). Both endometrioid (0.81, 95% CI 0.72-0.92, p=0.001) and clear-cell ovarian cancer risks (0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.97, p=0.03) were reduced in current smokers, and there was no significant association for serous ovarian cancers (0.99, 95% CI 0.93-1.06, p=0.8). These associations did not vary significantly by 13 sociodemographic and personal characteristics of women including their body-mass index, parity, and use of alcohol, oral contraceptives, and menopausal hormone therapy. Interpretation The excess of mucinous ovarian cancers in smokers, which is mainly of tumours of borderline malignancy, is roughly counterbalanced by the deficit of endometrioid and clear-cell ovarian cancers. The substantial variation in smoking-related risks by tumour subtype is important for understanding ovarian carcinogenesis.
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| 4. |
- Beral, V., et al.
(författare)
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Ovarian Cancer and Body Size : Individual Participant Meta-Analysis Including 25,157 Women with Ovarian Cancer from 47 Epidemiological Studies
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 9:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Only about half the studies that have collected information on the relevance of women's height and body mass index to their risk of developing ovarian cancer have published their results, and findings are inconsistent. Here, we bring together the worldwide evidence, published and unpublished, and describe these relationships. Methods and Findings: Individual data on 25,157 women with ovarian cancer and 81,311 women without ovarian cancer from 47 epidemiological studies were collected, checked, and analysed centrally. Adjusted relative risks of ovarian cancer were calculated, by height and by body mass index. Ovarian cancer risk increased significantly with height and with body mass index, except in studies using hospital controls. For other study designs, the relative risk of ovarian cancer per 5 cm increase in height was 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.09; p<0.001); this relationship did not vary significantly by women's age, year of birth, education, age at menarche, parity, menopausal status, smoking, alcohol consumption, having had a hysterectomy, having first degree relatives with ovarian or breast cancer, use of oral contraceptives, or use of menopausal hormone therapy. For body mass index, there was significant heterogeneity (p<0.001) in the findings between ever-users and never-users of menopausal hormone therapy, but not by the 11 other factors listed above. The relative risk for ovarian cancer per 5 kg/m(2) increase in body mass index was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.07-1.13; p<0.001) in never-users and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.92-0.99; p = 0.02) in ever-users of hormone therapy. Conclusions: Ovarian cancer is associated with height and, among never-users of hormone therapy, with body mass index. In high-income countries, both height and body mass index have been increasing in birth cohorts now developing the disease. If all other relevant factors had remained constant, then these increases in height and weight would be associated with a 3% increase in ovarian cancer incidence per decade.
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| 5. |
- Gapstur, S. M., et al.
(författare)
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Menopausal hormone use and ovarian cancer risk: individual participant meta-analysis of 52 epidemiological studies
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X. ; 385:9980, s. 1835-1842
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Half the epidemiological studies with information about menopausal hormone therapy and ovarian cancer risk remain unpublished, and some retrospective studies could have been biased by selective participation or recall. We aimed to assess with minimal bias the effects of hormone therapy on ovarian cancer risk. Methods Individual participant datasets from 52 epidemiological studies were analysed centrally. The principal analyses involved the prospective studies (with last hormone therapy use extrapolated forwards for up to 4 years). Sensitivity analyses included the retrospective studies. Adjusted Poisson regressions yielded relative risks (RRs) versus never-use. Findings During prospective follow-up, 12 110 postmenopausal women, 55% (6601) of whom had used hormone therapy, developed ovarian cancer. Among women last recorded as current users, risk was increased even with <5 years of use (RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.31-1.56; p<0.0001). Combining current-or-recent use (any duration, but stopped <5 years before diagnosis) resulted in an RR of 1.37 (95% CI 1.29-1.46; p<0.0001); this risk was similar in European and American prospective studies and for oestrogen-only and oestrogen-progestagen preparations, but differed across the four main tumour types (heterogeneity p<0.0001), being definitely increased only for the two most common types, serous (RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.40-1.66; p<0.0001) and endometrioid (1.42, 1.20-1.67; p<0.0001). Risk declined the longer ago use had ceased, although about 10 years after stopping long-duration hormone therapy use there was still an excess of serous or endometrioid tumours (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07-1.46, p=0.005). Interpretation The increased risk may well be largely or wholly causal; if it is, women who use hormone therapy for 5 years from around age 50 years have about one extra ovarian cancer per 1000 users and, if its prognosis is typical, about one extra ovarian cancer death per 1700 users.
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| 6. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 7. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(författare)
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The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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| 8. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. IX. Detection of Near-horizon Circular Polarization
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 957:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations have revealed a bright ring of emission around the supermassive black hole at the center of the M87 galaxy. EHT images in linear polarization have further identified a coherent spiral pattern around the black hole, produced from ordered magnetic fields threading the emitting plasma. Here we present the first analysis of circular polarization using EHT data, acquired in 2017, which can potentially provide additional insights into the magnetic fields and plasma composition near the black hole. Interferometric closure quantities provide convincing evidence for the presence of circularly polarized emission on event-horizon scales. We produce images of the circular polarization using both traditional and newly developed methods. All methods find a moderate level of resolved circular polarization across the image (〈|v|〉 < 3.7%), consistent with the low image-integrated circular polarization fraction measured by the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (|vint| < 1%). Despite this broad agreement, the methods show substantial variation in the morphology of the circularly polarized emission, indicating that our conclusions are strongly dependent on the imaging assumptions because of the limited baseline coverage, uncertain telescope gain calibration, and weakly polarized signal. We include this upper limit in an updated comparison to general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulation models. This analysis reinforces the previously reported preference for magnetically arrested accretion flow models. We find that most simulations naturally produce a low level of circular polarization consistent with our upper limit and that Faraday conversion is likely the dominant production mechanism for circular polarization at 230 GHz in M87*
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| 9. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First Sagittarius A∗ Event Horizon Telescope Results. VII. Polarization of the Ring
- 2024
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 964:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Event Horizon Telescope observed the horizon-scale synchrotron emission region around the Galactic center supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A∗ (Sgr A∗), in 2017. These observations revealed a bright, thick ring morphology with a diameter of 51.8 ± 2.3 μas and modest azimuthal brightness asymmetry, consistent with the expected appearance of a black hole with mass M≈ 4 × 106 M⊙. From these observations, we present the first resolved linear and circular polarimetric images of Sgr A∗. The linear polarization images demonstrate that the emission ring is highly polarized, exhibiting a prominent spiral electric vector polarization angle pattern with a peak fractional polarization of ∼40% in the western portion of the ring. The circular polarization images feature a modestly (∼5%°-10%) polarized dipole structure along the emission ring, with negative circular polarization in the western region and positive circular polarization in the eastern region, although our methods exhibit stronger disagreement than for linear polarization. We analyze the data using multiple independent imaging and modeling methods, each of which is validated using a standardized suite of synthetic data sets. While the detailed spatial distribution of the linear polarization along the ring remains uncertain owing to the intrinsic variability of the source, the spiraling polarization structure is robust to methodological choices. The degree and orientation of the linear polarization provide stringent constraints for the black hole and its surrounding magnetic fields, which we discuss in an accompanying publication.
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| 10. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First Sagittarius A∗ Event Horizon Telescope Results. VIII. Physical Interpretation of the Polarized Ring
- 2024
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 964:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In a companion paper, we present the first spatially resolved polarized image of Sagittarius A∗ on event horizon scales, captured using the Event Horizon Telescope, a global very long baseline interferometric array operating at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. Here we interpret this image using both simple analytic models and numerical general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. The large spatially resolved linear polarization fraction (24%-28%, peaking at ∼40%) is the most stringent constraint on parameter space, disfavoring models that are too Faraday depolarized. Similar to our studies of M87∗, polarimetric constraints reinforce a preference for GRMHD models with dynamically important magnetic fields. Although the spiral morphology of the polarization pattern is known to constrain the spin and inclination angle, the time-variable rotation measure (RM) of Sgr A∗ (equivalent to ≈ 46° ± 12° rotation at 228 GHz) limits its present utility as a constraint. If we attribute the RM to internal Faraday rotation, then the motion of accreting material is inferred to be counterclockwise, contrary to inferences based on historical polarized flares, and no model satisfies all polarimetric and total intensity constraints. On the other hand, if we attribute the mean RM to an external Faraday screen, then the motion of accreting material is inferred to be clockwise, and one model passes all applied total intensity and polarimetric constraints: a model with strong magnetic fields, a spin parameter of 0.94, and an inclination of 150°. We discuss how future 345 GHz and dynamical imaging will mitigate our present uncertainties and provide additional constraints on the black hole and its accretion flow.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Paraschos, Georgios Filippos, et al.
(författare)
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Ordered magnetic fields around the 3C 84 central black hole
- 2024
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 682
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context . 3C 84 is a nearby radio source with a complex total intensity structure, showing linear polarisation and spectral patterns. A detailed investigation of the central engine region necessitates the use of very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) above the hitherto available maximum frequency of 86 GHz. Aims. Using ultrahigh resolution VLBI observations at the currently highest available frequency of 228 GHz, we aim to perform a direct detection of compact structures and understand the physical conditions in the compact region of 3C 84. Methods . We used Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 228 GHz observations and, given the limited (u, v)-coverage, applied geometric model fitting to the data. Furthermore, we employed quasi-simultaneously observed, ancillary multi-frequency VLBI data for the source in order to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the core structure. Results . We report the detection of a highly ordered, strong magnetic field around the central, supermassive black hole of 3C 84. The brightness temperature analysis suggests that the system is in equipartition. We also determined a turnover frequency of νm = (113 ± 4) GHz, a corresponding synchrotron self-absorbed magnetic field of BSSA = (2.9 ± 1.6) G, and an equipartition magnetic field of Beq = (5.2 ± 0.6) G. Three components are resolved with the highest fractional polarisation detected for this object (mnet = (17.0 ± 3.9)%). The positions of the components are compatible with those seen in low-frequency VLBI observations since 2017-2018. We report a steeply negative slope of the spectrum at 228 GHz. We used these findings to test existing models of jet formation, propagation, and Faraday rotation in 3C 84. Conclusions . The findings of our investigation into different flow geometries and black hole spins support an advection-dominated accretion flow in a magnetically arrested state around a rapidly rotating supermassive black hole as a model of the jet-launching system in the core of 3C 84. However, systematic uncertainties due to the limited (u, v)-coverage, however, cannot be ignored. Our upcoming work using new EHT data, which offer full imaging capabilities, will shed more light on the compact region of 3C 84.
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| 13. |
- Roelofs, F., et al.
(författare)
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Polarimetric Geometric Modeling for mm-VLBI Observations of Black Holes
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 957:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) array that has imaged the apparent shadows of the supermassive black holes M87* and Sagittarius A*. Polarimetric data from these observations contain a wealth of information on the black hole and accretion flow properties. In this work, we develop polarimetric geometric modeling methods for mm-VLBI data, focusing on approaches that fit data products with differing degrees of invariance to broad classes of calibration errors. We establish a fitting procedure using a polarimetric “m-ring” model to approximate the image structure near a black hole. By fitting this model to synthetic EHT data from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models, we show that the linear and circular polarization structure can be successfully approximated with relatively few model parameters. We then fit this model to EHT observations of M87* taken in 2017. In total intensity and linear polarization, the m-ring fits are consistent with previous results from imaging methods. In circular polarization, the m-ring fits indicate the presence of event-horizon-scale circular polarization structure, with a persistent dipolar asymmetry and orientation across several days. The same structure was recovered independently of observing band, used data products, and model assumptions. Despite this broad agreement, imaging methods do not produce similarly consistent results. Our circular polarization results, which imposed additional assumptions on the source structure, should thus be interpreted with some caution. Polarimetric geometric modeling provides a useful and powerful method to constrain the properties of horizon-scale polarized emission, particularly for sparse arrays like the EHT.
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| 14. |
- Nguyen, Thanh N, et al.
(författare)
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Global Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stroke Volumes and Cerebrovascular Events: A 1-Year Follow-up.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 100:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Declines in stroke admission, IV thrombolysis (IVT), and mechanical thrombectomy volumes were reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a paucity of data on the longer-term effect of the pandemic on stroke volumes over the course of a year and through the second wave of the pandemic. We sought to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volumes of stroke admissions, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), IVT, and mechanical thrombectomy over a 1-year period at the onset of the pandemic (March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021) compared with the immediately preceding year (March 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020).We conducted a longitudinal retrospective study across 6 continents, 56 countries, and 275 stroke centers. We collected volume data for COVID-19 admissions and 4 stroke metrics: ischemic stroke admissions, ICH admissions, IVT treatments, and mechanical thrombectomy procedures. Diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes or classifications in stroke databases.There were 148,895 stroke admissions in the 1 year immediately before compared with 138,453 admissions during the 1-year pandemic, representing a 7% decline (95% CI [95% CI 7.1-6.9]; p < 0.0001). ICH volumes declined from 29,585 to 28,156 (4.8% [5.1-4.6]; p < 0.0001) and IVT volume from 24,584 to 23,077 (6.1% [6.4-5.8]; p < 0.0001). Larger declines were observed at high-volume compared with low-volume centers (all p < 0.0001). There was no significant change in mechanical thrombectomy volumes (0.7% [0.6-0.9]; p = 0.49). Stroke was diagnosed in 1.3% [1.31-1.38] of 406,792 COVID-19 hospitalizations. SARS-CoV-2 infection was present in 2.9% ([2.82-2.97], 5,656/195,539) of all stroke hospitalizations.There was a global decline and shift to lower-volume centers of stroke admission volumes, ICH volumes, and IVT volumes during the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the prior year. Mechanical thrombectomy volumes were preserved. These results suggest preservation in the stroke care of higher severity of disease through the first pandemic year.This study is registered under NCT04934020.
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| 15. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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The persistent shadow of the supermassive black hole of M 87: I. Observations, calibration, imaging, and analysis*
- 2024
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 681
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In April 2019, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration reported the first-ever event-horizon-scale images of a black hole, resolving the central compact radio source in the giant elliptical galaxy M 87. These images reveal a ring with a southerly brightness distribution and a diameter of ∼42 μas, consistent with the predicted size and shape of a shadow produced by the gravitationally lensed emission around a supermassive black hole. These results were obtained as part of the April 2017 EHT observation campaign, using a global very long baseline interferometric radio array operating at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. Here, we present results based on the second EHT observing campaign, taking place in April 2018 with an improved array, wider frequency coverage, and increased bandwidth. In particular, the additional baselines provided by the Greenland telescope improved the coverage of the array. Multiyear EHT observations provide independent snapshots of the horizon-scale emission, allowing us to confirm the persistence, size, and shape of the black hole shadow, and constrain the intrinsic structural variability of the accretion flow. We have confirmed the presence of an asymmetric ring structure, brighter in the southwest, with a median diameter of 43.3-3.1+1.5 μas. The diameter of the 2018 ring is remarkably consistent with the diameter obtained from the previous 2017 observations. On the other hand, the position angle of the brightness asymmetry in 2018 is shifted by about 30 relative to 2017. The perennial persistence of the ring and its diameter robustly support the interpretation that the ring is formed by lensed emission surrounding a Kerr black hole with a mass ∼6.5× 109M. The significant change in the ring brightness asymmetry implies a spin axis that is more consistent with the position angle of the large-scale jet.
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| 16. |
- Beral, V, et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol, tobacco and breast cancer - collaborative reanalysis of individual data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 58515 women with breast cancer and 95067 women without the disease
- 2002
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Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1532-1827 .- 0007-0920. ; 87, s. 1234-45
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Alcohol and tobacco consumption are closely correlated and published results on their association with breast cancer have not always allowed adequately for confounding between these exposures. Over 80% of the relevant information worldwide on alcohol and tobacco consumption and breast cancer were collated, checked and analysed centrally. Analyses included 58515 women with invasive breast cancer and 95067 controls from 53 studies. Relative risks of breast cancer were estimated, after stratifying by study, age, parity and, where appropriate, women's age when their first child was born and consumption of alcohol and tobacco. The average consumption of alcohol reported by controls from developed countries was 6.0 g per day, i.e. about half a unit/drink of alcohol per day, and was greater in ever-smokers than never-smokers, (8.4 g per day and 5.0 g per day, respectively). Compared with women who reported drinking no alcohol, the relative risk of breast cancer was 1.32 (1.19 - 1.45, P < 0.00001) for an intake of 35 - 44 g per day alcohol, and 1.46 (1.33 - 1.61, P < 0.00001) for greater than or equal to 45 g per day alcohol. The relative risk of breast cancer increased by 7.1% (95% CI 5.5-8.7%; P<0.00001) for each additional 10 g per day intake of alcohol, i.e. for each extra unit or drink of alcohol consumed on a daily basis. This increase was the same in ever-smokers and never-smokers (7.1 % per 10 g per day, P < 0.00001, in each group). By contrast, the relationship between smoking and breast cancer was substantially confounded by the effect of alcohol. When analyses were restricted to 22 255 women with breast cancer and 40 832 controls who reported drinking no alcohol, smoking was not associated with breast cancer (compared to never-smokers, relative risk for ever-smokers= 1.03, 95% CI 0.98 - 1.07, and for current smokers=0.99, 0.92 - 1.05). The results for alcohol and for tobacco did not vary substantially across studies, study designs, or according to 15 personal characteristics of the women; nor were the findings materially confounded by any of these factors. If the observed relationship for alcohol is causal, these results suggest that about 4% of the breast cancers in developed countries are attributable to alcohol. In developing countries, where alcohol consumption among controls averaged only 0.4 g per day, alcohol would have a negligible effect on the incidence of breast cancer. In conclusion, smoking has little or no independent effect on the risk of developing breast cancer; the effect of alcohol on breast cancer needs to be interpreted in the context of its beneficial effects, in moderation, on cardiovascular disease and its harmful effects on cirrhosis and cancers of the mouth, larynx, oesophagus and liver. (C) 2002 Cancer Research UK.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Arslan, Alan A., et al.
(författare)
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Anthropometric Measures, Body Mass Index, and Pancreatic Cancer A Pooled Analysis From the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan)
- 2010
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Ingår i: Archives of Internal Medicine. - 0003-9926. ; 170:9, s. 791-802
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Obesity has been proposed as a risk factor for pancreatic cancer. Methods: Pooled data were analyzed from the National Cancer Institute Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan) to study the association, between prediagnostic anthropometric measures and risk of pancreatic cancer. PanScan applied a nested case-control study design and included 2170 cases and 2209 control subjects. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression for cohort-specific quartiles of body mass index (BMI [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]), weight, height, waist circumference, and waist to hip ratio as well as conventional BMI categories (underweight, <18.5; normal weight, 18.5-24.9; overweight, 25.0-29.9; obese, 30.0-34.9; and severely obese, >= 35.0). Models were adjusted for potential confounders. Results: In all of the participants, a positive association between increasing BMI and risk of pancreatic cancer was observed (adjusted OR for the highest vs lowest BMI guartile, 1.33; 95% Cl, 1.12-1.58; P-trend<.001). In men, the adjusted OR for pancreatic cancer for the highest vs lowest quartile of BMI was 1.33 (95% Cl, 1.04-1.69; P-trend<.03), and in women it was 1.34 (95% Cl, 1.05-1.70; P-trend=.01). Increased waist to hip ratio was associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in women (adjusted OR for the highest vs lowest quartile, 1.87; 95% Cl, 1.31-2.69; P-trend=.003) but less so in men. Conclusions: These findings provide strong support for a positive association between BMI and pancreatic cancer risk. In addition, centralized fat distribution may increase pancreatic cancer risk, especially in women. Arch Intern Med. 2010;170(9):791 -802
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| 19. |
- Jackson, Sarah S., et al.
(författare)
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Associations between reproductive factors and biliary tract cancers in women from the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Hepatology. - : ELSEVIER. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 73, s. 863-872
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background & Aims: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is known to have a female predominance while other biliary tract cancers (BTCs) have a male predominance. However, the role of female reproductive factors in BTC etiology remains unclear. Methods: We pooled data from 19 studies of >1.5 million women participating in the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project to examine the associations of parity, age at menarche, reproductive years, and age at menopause with BTC. Associations for age at menarche and reproductive years with BTC were analyzed separately for Asian and non-Asian women. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by study. Results: During 21,681,798 person-years of follow-up, 875 cases of GBC, 379 of intrahepatic bile duct cancer (IHBDC), 450 of extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EHBDC), and 261 of ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC) occurred. High parity was associated with risk of GBC (HR >= 5 vs. 0 births 1.72; 95% CI 1.25-2.38). Age at menarche (HR per year increase 1.15; 95% CI 1.06-1.24) was associated with GBC risk in Asian women while reproductive years were associated with GBC risk (HR per 5 years 1.13; 95% CI 1.04-1.22) in non-Asian women. Later age at menarche was associated with IHBDC (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.09-1.31) and EHBDC (HR 1.11; 95% CI 1.01-1.22) in Asian women only. Conclusion: We observed an increased risk of GBC with increasing parity. Among Asian women, older age at menarche was associated with increased risk for GBC, IHBDC, and EHBDC, while increasing reproductive years was associated with GBC in non-Asian women. These results suggest that sex hormones have distinct effects on cancers across the biliary tract that vary by geography. Lay summary: Our findings show that the risk of gallbladder cancer is increased among women who have given birth (especially women with 5 or more children). In women from Asian countries, later age at menarche increases the risk of gallbladder cancer, intrahepatic bile duct cancer and extrahepatic bile duct cancer. We did not see this same association in women from Western countries. Age at menopause was not associated with the risk of any biliary tract cancers. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association for the Study of the Liver.
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| 20. |
- Koushik, Anita, et al.
(författare)
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Fruits, vegetables, and colon cancer risk in a pooled analysis of 14 cohort studies
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - Univ Montreal, CHUM, Ctr Rech, Dept Social & Prevent Med, Montreal, PQ H2W 1V1, Canada. Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Nutr, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Loma Linda Univ, Ctr Hlth Res, Loma Linda, CA 92350 USA. Maastricht Univ, Dept Epidemiol, Maastricht, Netherlands. Amer Canc Soc, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA. Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Brigham & Womens Hosp, Dept Med, Div Prevent Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Brigham & Womens Hosp, Channing Lab, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Univ Buffalo State Univ New York, Dept Social & Prevent Med, Buffalo, NY 14222 USA. Roswell Pk Canc Inst, Dept Canc Prevent & Populat Sci, Buffalo, NY 14263 USA. Dana Farber Canc Inst, Dept Adult Oncol, Boston, MA USA. TNO, Dept Food & Chem Risk Anal, Zeist, Netherlands. Univ Minnesota, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol & Community Hlth, Minneapolis, MN USA. Wayne State Univ, Sch Med, Dept Pathol, Karmanos Canc Inst, Detroit, MI 48201 USA. Natl Canc Inst, Nutr Epidemiol Unit, I-20133 Milan, Italy. Karolinska Inst, Natl Inst Environm Med, Div Nutr Epidemiol, Stockholm, Sweden. NCI, Div Canc Epidemiol & Genet, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA. Univ Toronto, Fac Med, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, Toronto, ON, Canada. Natl Publ Hlth Inst, Dept Epidemiol & Hlth Promot, Helsinki, Finland. Albert Einstein Coll Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Bronx, NY 10467 USA. AZJ, Div Epidemiol, Dept Environm Med, New York, NY USA. : OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC. - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 99:19, s. 1471-1483
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Fruit and vegetable intakes have been associated with a reduced risk of colon cancer; however, in more recent studies associations have been less consistent. Statistical power to examine associations by colon site has been limited in previous studies. Methods Fruit and vegetable intakes in relation to colon cancer risk were examined in the Pooling Project of Prospective Studies of Diet and Cancer. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (Cis) were estimated separately in 14 studies using Cox proportional hazards model and then pooled using a randomeffects model. Intakes of total fruits and vegetables, total fruits, and total vegetables were categorized according to quintiles and absolute cutpoints. Analyses were conducted for colon cancer overall and for proximal and distal colon cancer separately. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Among 756217 men and women followed for up to 6 to 20 years, depending on the study, 5838 were diagnosed with colon cancer. The pooled multivariable RRs (95% Cis) of colon cancer for the highest versus lowest quintiles of intake were 0.91 (0.82 to 1-01 1 P-trend =.19) for total fruits and vegetables, 0.93 (0.85 to 1.02, P-trend =.28) for total fruits, and 0.94 (0.86 to 1.02, P-trend =.17) for total vegetables. Similar results were observed when intakes were categorized by identical absolute cut points across studies (pooled multivariable FIR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.77 to 1.05 for 800 or more versus <200 g/day of total fruits and vegetables, P-trend =.06). The age-standardized incidence rates of colon cancer for these two intake categories were 54 and 61 per 100000 person-years, respectively. When analyzed by colon site, the pooled multivariable RRs (95% Cis) comparing total fruit and vegetable intakes of 800 or more versus less than 200 g/day were 0.74 (0.57 to 0.95, P-trend =.02) for distal colon cancers and 1.02 (0.82 to 1.27, P-trend =.57) for proximal colon cancers. Similar site-specific associations were observed for total fruits and total vegetables. Conclusion Fruit and vegetable intakes were not strongly associated with colon cancer risk overall but may be associated with a lower risk of distal colon cancer.
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| 21. |
- Koushik, Anita, et al.
(författare)
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Intake of the major carotenoids and the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer in a pooled analysis of 10 cohort studies
- 2006
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Nutr, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Brigham & Womens Hosp, Dept Med, Channing Lab, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Harvard Univ, Ctr Canc Prevent, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Univ Minnesota, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol & Community Hlth, Minneapolis, MN USA. Brigham & Womens Hosp, Dept Med, Div Prevent Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA. SUNY Buffalo, Dept Social & Prevent Med, Buffalo, NY USA. TNO, Qual Life, Dept Food & Chem Risk Anal, NL-3700 AJ Zeist, Netherlands. Karolinska Inst, Natl Inst Environm Med, Div Nutrit Epidemiol, Stockholm, Sweden. NCI, Div Canc Epidemiol & Genet, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA. Amer Canc Soc, Epidemiol & Surveillance Res, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA. Univ Toronto, Fac Med, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, Toronto, ON, Canada. Albert Einstein Coll Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Bronx, NY 10467 USA. Maastricht Univ, NUTRIM, Dept Epidemiol, Maastricht, Netherlands. : WILEY. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 119:9, s. 2148-2154
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Carotenoids, found in fruits and vegetables, have the potential to protect against cancer because of their properties, including their functions as precursors to vitamin A and as antioxidants. We examined the associations between intakes of alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein/zeaxanthin and lycopene and the risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. The primary data from 10 prospective cohort studies in North America and Europe were analyzed and then pooled. Carotenoid intakes were estimated from a validated food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline in each study. Study-specific relative risks (RR) were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model and then combined using a random-effects model. Among 521,911 women, 2,012 cases of ovarian cancer occurred during a follow-up of 7-22 years across studies. The major carotenoids were not significantly associated with the risk of ovarian cancer. The pooled multivariate RRs (95% confidence intervals) were 1.00 (0.95-1.05) for a 600 mu g/day increase in alpha-carotene intake, 0.96 (0.93-1.03) for a 2,500 mu g/day increase in beta-carotene intake, 0.99 (0.97-1.02) for a 100 mu g/day increase in beta-cryptoxanthin intake, 0.98 (0.94-1.03) for a 2,500 mu g/day increase in lutein/zeaxanthin intake and 1.01 (0.97-1.05) for a 4,000 mu g/day increase in lycopene intake. These associations did not appreciably differ by study (p-values, tests for between-studies heterogeneity > 0.17). Also, the observed associations did not vary substantially by subgroups of the population or by histological type of ovarian cancer. These results suggest that consumption of the major carotenoids during adulthood does not play a major role in the incidence of ovarian cancer. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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| 22. |
- Schoemaker, Minouk J., et al.
(författare)
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Adult weight change and premenopausal breast cancer risk : A prospective pooled analysis of data from 628,463 women
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 147:5, s. 1306-1314
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Early-adulthood body size is strongly inversely associated with risk of premenopausal breast cancer. It is unclear whether subsequent changes in weight affect risk. We pooled individual-level data from 17 prospective studies to investigate the association of weight change with premenopausal breast cancer risk, considering strata of initial weight, timing of weight change, other breast cancer risk factors and breast cancer subtype. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained using Cox regression. Among 628,463 women, 10,886 were diagnosed with breast cancer before menopause. Models adjusted for initial weight at ages 18-24 years and other breast cancer risk factors showed that weight gain from ages 18-24 to 35-44 or to 45-54 years was inversely associated with breast cancer overall (e.g., HR per 5 kg to ages 45-54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.98) and with oestrogen-receptor(ER)-positive breast cancer (HR per 5 kg to ages 45-54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94-0.98). Weight gain from ages 25-34 was inversely associated with ER-positive breast cancer only and weight gain from ages 35-44 was not associated with risk. None of these weight gains were associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Weight loss was not consistently associated with overall or ER-specific risk after adjusting for initial weight. Weight increase from early-adulthood to ages 45-54 years is associated with a reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk independently of early-adulthood weight. Biological explanations are needed to account for these two separate factors.
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| 23. |
- Schoemaker, Minouk J, et al.
(författare)
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Association of Body Mass Index and Age With Subsequent Breast Cancer Risk in Premenopausal Women.
- 2018
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Ingår i: JAMA Oncology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 4:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: The association between increasing body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) and risk of breast cancer is unique in cancer epidemiology in that a crossover effect exists, with risk reduction before and risk increase after menopause. The inverse association with premenopausal breast cancer risk is poorly characterized but might be important in the understanding of breast cancer causation.Objective: To investigate the association of BMI with premenopausal breast cancer risk, in particular by age at BMI, attained age, risk factors for breast cancer, and tumor characteristics.Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter analysis used pooled individual-level data from 758 592 premenopausal women from 19 prospective cohorts to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of premenopausal breast cancer in association with BMI from ages 18 through 54 years using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Median follow-up was 9.3 years (interquartile range, 4.9-13.5 years) per participant, with 13 082 incident cases of breast cancer. Participants were recruited from January 1, 1963, through December 31, 2013, and data were analyzed from September 1, 2013, through December 31, 2017.Exposures: Body mass index at ages 18 to 24, 25 to 34, 35 to 44, and 45 to 54 years.Main Outcomes and Measures: Invasive or in situ premenopausal breast cancer.Results: Among the 758 592 premenopausal women (median age, 40.6 years; interquartile range, 35.2-45.5 years) included in the analysis, inverse linear associations of BMI with breast cancer risk were found that were stronger for BMI at ages 18 to 24 years (HR per 5 kg/m2 [5.0-U] difference, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.73-0.80) than for BMI at ages 45 to 54 years (HR per 5.0-U difference, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.91). The inverse associations were observed even among nonoverweight women. There was a 4.2-fold risk gradient between the highest and lowest BMI categories (BMI≥35.0 vs <17.0) at ages 18 to 24 years (HR, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.14-0.40). Hazard ratios did not appreciably vary by attained age or between strata of other breast cancer risk factors. Associations were stronger for estrogen receptor-positive and/or progesterone receptor-positive than for hormone receptor-negative breast cancer for BMI at every age group (eg, for BMI at age 18 to 24 years: HR per 5.0-U difference for estrogen receptor-positive and progesterone receptor-positive tumors, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.70-0.81] vs hormone receptor-negative tumors, 0.85 [95% CI: 0.76-0.95]); BMI at ages 25 to 54 years was not consistently associated with triple-negative or hormone receptor-negative breast cancer overall.Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that increased adiposity is associated with a reduced risk of premenopausal breast cancer at a greater magnitude than previously shown and across the entire distribution of BMI. The strongest associations of risk were observed for BMI in early adulthood. Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying these associations could have important preventive potential.
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| 24. |
- Schouten, Leo J., et al.
(författare)
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Height, body mass index, and ovarian cancer : A pooled analysis of 12 cohort studies
- 2008
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Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : AMER ASSOC CANCER RESEARCH. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 17:4, s. 902-912
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Although many studies have investigated the association between anthropometry and ovarian cancer risk, results have been inconsistent. Methods: The associations of height, body mass index (BMI), and ovarian cancer risk were examined in a pooled analysis of primary data from 12 prospective cohort studies from North America and Europe. The study population consisted of 531,583 women among whom 2,036 epithelial ovarian cancer cases were identified. To summarize associations, study-specific relative risks (RR) were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model and then combined using a random-effects model. Results: Women with height >= 1.70 m had a pooled multivariate RR of 1.38 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.16-1-65] compared with those with height <1.60 m. For the same comparison, multivariate RRs were 1.79 (95% CI, 1.07-3.00) for premenopausal and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.04-1.49) for postmenopausal ovarian cancer (P(interaction) = 0.14). The multivariate RR for women with a BMI >= 30 kg/m(2) was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.86-1.22) compared with women with a BMI from 18.5 to 23 kg/m(2). For the same comparison, multivariate RRs were 1.72 (95% CI, 1.02-2.89) for premenopausal and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.87-1.33) for postmenopausal women (P(interaction) = 0.07). There was no statistically significant heterogeneity between studies with respect to height or BMI. BMI in early adulthood was not associated with ovarian cancer risk. Conclusion: Height was associated with an increased ovarian cancer risk, especially in premenopausal women. BMI was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in postmenopausal women but was positively associated with risk in premenopausal women.
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| 25. |
- Timmins, Iain R., et al.
(författare)
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International pooled analysis of leisure-time physical activity and premenopausal breast cancer in women from 19 cohorts
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - : American Society of Clinical Oncology. - 0732-183X .- 1527-7755. ; 42:8, s. 927-939
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSE: There is strong evidence that leisure-time physical activity is protective against postmenopausal breast cancer risk but the association with premenopausal breast cancer is less clear. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of physical activity with the risk of developing premenopausal breast cancer.METHODS: We pooled individual-level data on self-reported leisure-time physical activity across 19 cohort studies comprising 547,601 premenopausal women, with 10,231 incident cases of breast cancer. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for associations of leisure-time physical activity with breast cancer incidence. HRs for high versus low levels of activity were based on a comparison of risk at the 90th versus 10th percentiles of activity. We assessed the linearity of the relationship and examined subtype-specific associations and effect modification across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including adiposity.RESULTS: Over a median 11.5 years of follow-up (IQR, 8.0-16.1 years), high versus low levels of leisure-time physical activity were associated with a 6% (HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89 to 0.99]) and a 10% (HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85 to 0.95]) reduction in breast cancer risk, before and after adjustment for BMI, respectively. Tests of nonlinearity suggested an approximately linear relationship (Pnonlinearity = .94). The inverse association was particularly strong for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-enriched breast cancer (HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.84]; Phet = .07). Associations did not vary significantly across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including subgroups of adiposity.CONCLUSION: This large, pooled analysis of cohort studies adds to evidence that engagement in higher levels of leisure-time physical activity may lead to reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk.
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