| 1. |
- Vos, T., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1211-1259
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40.8-75.9 million [7.2%, 6.0-8.3]), 45.1 million (29.0-62.8 million [5.6%, 4.0-7.2]), 36.3 million (25.3-50.9 million [4.5%, 3.8-5.3]), 34.7 million (23.0-49.6 million [4.3%, 3.5-5.2]), and 34.1 million (23.5-46.0 million [4.2%, 3.2-5.3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2.7% (95% UI 2.3-3.1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10.4% (95% UI 9.0-11.8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 2. |
- Fullman, N., et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 3. |
- Gakidou, E., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Naghavi, M., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1151-1210
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71.2-73.2) of deaths in 2016 with 19.3% (18.5-20.4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8.43% (8.00-8.67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1.80 million deaths (95% UI 1.59 million to 1.89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2.89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1.59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Acero, F., et al.
(författare)
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Prospects for Cherenkov Telescope Array Observations of the Young Supernova Remnant RX J1713.7-3946
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 840:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We perform simulations for future Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) observations of RX J1713.7-3946, a young supernova remnant (SNR) and one of the brightest sources ever discovered in very high energy (VHE) gamma rays. Special attention is paid to exploring possible spatial (anti) correlations of gamma rays with emission at other wavelengths, in particular X-rays and CO/H I emission. We present a series of simulated images of RX J1713.7-3946 for CTA based on a set of observationally motivated models for the gamma-ray emission. In these models, VHE gamma rays produced by high-energy electrons are assumed to trace the nonthermal X-ray emission observed by XMM-Newton, whereas those originating from relativistic protons delineate the local gas distributions. The local atomic and molecular gas distributions are deduced by the NANTEN team from CO and H I observations. Our primary goal is to show how one can distinguish the emission mechanism(s) of the gamma rays (i.e., hadronic versus leptonic, or a mixture of the two) through information provided by their spatial distribution, spectra, and time variation. This work is the first attempt to quantitatively evaluate the capabilities of CTA to achieve various proposed scientific goals by observing this important cosmic particle accelerator.
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| 10. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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The HESS Galactic plane survey
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the results of the most comprehensive survey of the Galactic plane in very high-energy (VHE) gamma-rays, including a public release of Galactic sky maps, a catalog of VHE sources, and the discovery of 16 new sources of VHE gamma-rays. The High Energy Spectroscopic System (H.E.S.S.) Galactic plane survey (HGPS) was a decade-long observation program carried out by the H.E.S.S. I array of Cherenkov telescopes in Namibia from 2004 to 2013. The observations amount to nearly 2700 h of quality-selected data, covering the Galactic plane at longitudes from l = 250 degrees to 65 degrees and latitudes vertical bar b vertical bar <= 3 degrees. In addition to the unprecedented spatial coverage, the HGPS also features a relatively high angular resolution (0.08 degrees approximate to 5 arcmin mean point spread function 68% containment radius), sensitivity (less than or similar to 1.5% Crab flux for point-like sources), and energy range (0.2-100 TeV). We constructed a catalog of VHE gamma-ray sources from the HGPS data set with a systematic procedure for both source detection and characterization of morphology and spectrum. We present this likelihood-based method in detail, including the introduction of a model component to account for unresolved, large-scale emission along the Galactic plane. In total, the resulting HGPS catalog contains 78 VHE sources, of which 14 are not reanalyzed here, for example, due to their complex morphology, namely shell-like sources and the Galactic center region. Where possible, we provide a firm identification of the VHE source or plausible associations with sources in other astronomical catalogs. We also studied the characteristics of the VHE sources with source parameter distributions. 16 new sources were previously unknown or unpublished, and we individually discuss their identifications or possible associations. We firmly identified 31 sources as pulsar wind nebulae (PWNe), supernova remnants (SNRs), composite SNRs, or gamma-ray binaries. Among the 47 sources not yet identified, most of them (36) have possible associations with cataloged objects, notably PWNe and energetic pulsars that could power VHE PWNe.
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| 11. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 12. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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Population study of Galactic supernova remnants at very high gamma-ray energies with HESS
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Shell-type supernova remnants (SNRs) are considered prime candidates for the acceleration of Galactic cosmic rays (CRs) up to the knee of the CR spectrum at E approximate to 3 x 10(15) eV. Our MilkyWay galaxy hosts more than 350 SNRs discovered at radio wavelengths and at high energies, of which 220 fall into the H.E.S.S. Galactic Plane Survey (HGPS) region. Of those, only 50 SNRs are coincident with a H.E.S.S source and in 8 cases the very high-energy (VHE) emission is firmly identified as an SNR. The H.E.S.S. GPS provides us with a legacy for SNR population study in VHE gamma-rays and we use this rich data set to extract VHE flux upper limits from all undetected SNRs. Overall, the derived flux upper limits are not in contradiction with the canonical CR paradigm. Assuming this paradigm holds true, we can constrain typical ambient density values around shell-type SNRs to n <= 7 cm(-3) and electron-to-proton energy fractions above 10 TeV to epsilon(ep) <= 5 x 10(-3). Furthermore, comparisons of VHE with radio luminosities in non-interacting SNRs reveal a behaviour that is in agreement with the theory of magnetic field amplification at shell-type SNRs.
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| 13. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 14. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 15. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Atmospheric gas dynamics in the Perseus cluster observed with Hitomi
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extending the earlier measurements reported in Hitomi collaboration (2016, Nature, 535, 117), we examine the atmospheric gas motions within the central 100 kpc of the Perseus cluster using observations obtained with the Hitomi satellite. After correcting for the point spread function of the telescope and using optically thin emission lines, we find that the line-of-sight velocity dispersion of the hot gas is remarkably low and mostly uniform. The velocity dispersion reaches a maxima of approximately 200 km s(-1) toward the central active galactic nucleus (AGN) and toward the AGN inflated northwestern ghost bubble. Elsewhere within the observed region, the velocity dispersion appears constant around 100 km s(-1). We also detect a velocity gradient with a 100 km s(-1) amplitude across the cluster core, consistent with large-scale sloshing of the core gas. If the observed gas motions are isotropic, the kinetic pressure support is less than 10% of the thermal pressure support in the cluster core. The well-resolved, optically thin emission lines have Gaussian shapes, indicating that the turbulent driving scale is likely below 100 kpc, which is consistent with the size of the AGN jet inflated bubbles. We also report the first measurement of the ion temperature in the intracluster medium, which we find to be consistent with the electron temperature. In addition, we present a new measurement of the redshift of the brightest cluster galaxy NGC 1275.
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| 16. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Atomic data and spectral modeling constraints from high-resolution X-ray observations of the Perseus cluster with Hitomi
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Hitomi Soft X-ray Spectrometer spectrum of the Perseus cluster, with similar to 5 eV resolution in the 2-9 keV band, offers an unprecedented benchmark of the atomic modeling and database for hot collisional plasmas. It reveals both successes and challenges of the current atomic data and models. The latest versions of AtomDB/APEC (3.0.8), SPEX (3.03.00), and CHIANTI (8.0) all provide reasonable fits to the broad-band spectrum, and are in close agreement on best-fit temperature, emission measure, and abundances of a few elements such as Ni. For the Fe abundance, the APEC and SPEX measurements differ by 16%, which is 17 times higher than the statistical uncertainty. This is mostly attributed to the differences in adopted collisional excitation and dielectronic recombination rates of the strongest emission lines. We further investigate and compare the sensitivity of the derived physical parameters to the astrophysical source modeling and instrumental effects. The Hitomi results show that accurate atomic data and models are as important as the astrophysical modeling and instrumental calibration aspects. Substantial updates of atomic databases and targeted laboratory measurements are needed to get the current data and models ready for the data from the next Hitomi-level mission.
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| 17. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Detection of polarized gamma-ray emission from the Crab nebula with the Hitomi Soft Gamma-ray Detector
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the results from the Hitomi Soft Gamma-ray Detector (SGD) observation of the Crab nebula. The main part of SGD is a Compton camera, which in addition to being a spectrometer, is capable of measuring polarization of gamma-ray photons. The Crab nebula is one of the brightest X-ray / gamma-ray sources on the sky, and, the only source from which polarized X-ray photons have been detected. SGD observed the Crab nebula during the initial test observation phase of Hitomi. We performed the data analysis of the SGD observation, the SGD background estimation and the SGD Monte Carlo simulations, and, successfully detected polarized gamma-ray emission from the Crab nebula with only about 5 ks exposure time. The obtained polarization fraction of the phase-integrated Crab emission (sum of pulsar and nebula emissions) is (22.1% +/- 10.6%), and, the polarization angle is 110.degrees 7 + 13.degrees 2 /-13.degrees 0 in the energy range of 60-160 keV (The errors correspond to the 1 sigma deviation). The confidence level of the polarization detection was 99.3%. The polarization angle measured by SGD is about one sigma deviation with the projected spin axis of the pulsar, 124.degrees 0 +/- 0.degrees 1.
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| 18. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Glimpse of the highly obscured HMXB IGR J16318-4848 with Hitomi
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on a Hitomi observation of IGR J16318-4848, a high-mass X-ray binary system with an extremely strong absorption of N-H similar to 10(24) cm(-2). Previous X-ray studies revealed that its spectrum is dominated by strong fluorescence lines of Fe as well as continuum emission lines. For physical and geometrical insight into the nature of the reprocessing material, we utilized the high spectroscopic resolving power of the X-ray microcalorimeter (the soft X-ray spectrometer: SXS) and the wide-band sensitivity by the soft and hard X-ray imagers (SXI and HXI) aboard Hitomi. Even though the photon counts are limited due to unintended off-axis pointing, the SXS spectrum resolves Fe K alpha(1) and K alpha(2) lines and puts strong constraints on the line centroid and line width. The line width corresponds to a velocity of 160(-70)(+300) km s(-1). This represents the most accurate, and smallest, width measurement of this line made so far from the any X-ray binary, much less than the Doppler broadening and Doppler shift expected from speeds that are characteristic of similar systems. Combined with the K-shell edge energy measured by the SXI and HXI spectra, the ionization state of Fe is estimated to be in the range of Fe I-IV. Considering the estimated ionization parameter and the distance between the X-ray source and the absorber, the density and thickness of the materials are estimated. The extraordinarily strong absorption and the absence of a Compton shoulder component have been confirmed. These characteristics suggest reprocessing materials that are distributed in a narrow solid angle or scattering, primarily by warm free electrons or neutral hydrogen. This measurement was achieved using the SXS detection of 19 photons. It provides strong motivation for follow-up observations of this and other X-ray binaries using the X-ray Astrophysics Recovery Mission and other comparable future instruments.
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| 19. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Hitomi observation of radio galaxy NGC 1275 : The first X-ray microcalorimeter spectroscopy of Fe-K alpha line emission from an active galactic nucleus
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The origin of the narrow Fe-K alpha fluorescence line at 6.4 keV from active galactic nuclei has long been under debate; some of the possible sites are the outer accretion disk, the broad line region, a molecular torus, or interstellar/intracluster media. In 2016 February-March, we performed the first X-ray microcalorimeter spectroscopy with the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board the Hitomi satellite of the Fanaroff-Riley type I radio galaxy NGC 1275 at the center of the Perseus cluster of galaxies. With the high-energy resolution of similar to 5 eV at 6 keV achieved by Hitomi/SXS, we detected the Fe-K alpha line with similar to 5.4 sigma significance. The velocity width is constrained to be 500-1600 km s(-1) (FWHM for Gaussian models) at 90% confidence. The SXS also constrains the continuum level from the NGC 1275 nucleus up to similar to 20 keV, giving an equivalent width of similar to 20 eV for the 6.4 keV line. Because the velocity width is narrower than that of the broad H alpha line of similar to 2750 km s(-1), we can exclude a large contribution to the line flux from the accretion disk and the broad line region. Furthermore, we performed pixel map analyses on the Hitomi/SXS data and image analyses on the Chandra archival data, and revealed that the Fe-K alpha line comes from a region within similar to 1.6 kpc of the NGC 1275 core, where an active galactic nucleus emission dominates, rather than that from intracluster media. Therefore, we suggest that the source of the Fe-K alpha line from NGC 1275 is likely a low-covering-fraction molecular torus or a rotating molecular disk which probably extends from a parsec to hundreds of parsecs scale in the active galactic nucleus system.
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| 20. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Hitomi observations of the LMC SNR N 132 D : Highly redshifted X-ray emission from iron ejecta
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present Hitomi observations of N 132 D, a young, X-ray bright, O-rich core-collapse supernova remnant in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Despite a very short observation of only 3.7 ks, the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) easily detects the line complexes of highly ionized S K and Fe K with 16-17 counts in each. The Fe feature is measured for the first time at high spectral resolution. Based on the plausible assumption that the Fe K emission is dominated by He-like ions, we find that the material responsible for this Fe emission is highly redshifted at similar to 800 km s(-1) compared to the local LMC interstellar medium (ISM), with a 90% credible interval of 50-1500 km s(-1) if a weakly informative prior is placed on possible line broadening. This indicates (1) that the Fe emission arises from the supernova ejecta, and (2) that these ejecta are highly asymmetric, since no blueshifted component is found. The S K velocity is consistent with the local LMC ISM, and is likely from swept-up ISM material. These results are consistent with spatial mapping that shows the He-like Fe concentrated in the interior of the remnant and the S tracing the outer shell. The results also show that even with a very small number of counts, direct velocity measurements from Doppler-shifted lines detected in extended objects like supernova remnants are now possible. Thanks to the very low SXS background of similar to 1 event per spectral resolution element per 100 ks, such results are obtainable during short pointed or slew observations with similar instruments. This highlights the power of high-spectral-resolution imaging observations, and demonstrates the new window that has been opened with Hitomi and will be greatly widened with future missions such as the X-ray Astronomy Recovery Mission (XARM) and Athena.
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| 21. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Hitomi X-ray observation of the pulsar wind nebula G21.5-0.9
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present results from the Hitomi X-ray observation of a young composite-type supernova remnant (SNR) G21.5-0.9, whose emission is dominated by the pulsar wind nebula (PWN) contribution. The X-ray spectra in the 0.8-80 keV range obtained with the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS), Soft X-ray Imager, and Hard X-ray Imager (HXI) show a significant break in the continuum as previously found with the NuSTAR observation. After taking into account all known emissions from the SNR other than the PWN itself, we find that the Hitomi spectra can be fitted with a broken power law with photon indices of Gamma(1) = 1.74 +/- 0.02 and Gamma(2) = 2.14 +/- 0.01 below and above the break at 7.1 +/- 0.3 keV, which is significantly lower than the NuSTAR result (similar to 9.0 keV). The spectral break cannot be reproduced by time-dependent particle injection one-zone spectral energy distribution models, which strongly indicates that a more complex emission model is needed, as suggested by recent theoretical models. We also search for narrow emission or absorption lines with the SXS, and perform a timing analysis of PSR J1833-1034 with the HXI and the Soft Gamma-ray Detector. No significant pulsation is found from the pulsar. However, unexpectedly, narrow absorption line features are detected in the SXS data at 4.2345 keV and 9.296 keV with a significance of 3.65 sigma. While the origin of these features is not understood, their mere detection opens up a new field of research and was only possible with the high resolution, sensitivity, and ability to measure extended sources provided by an X-ray microcalorimeter.
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| 22. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Hitomi X-ray studies of giant radio pulses from the Crab pulsar
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To search for giant X-ray pulses correlated with the giant radio pulses (GRPs) from the Crab pulsar, we performed a simultaneous observation of the Crab pulsar with the X-ray satellite Hitomi in the 2-300 keV band and the Kashima NICT radio telescope in the 1.4-1.7 GHz band with a net exposure of about 2 ks on 2016 March 25, just before the loss of the Hitomi mission. The timing performance of the Hitomi instruments was confirmed to meet the timing requirement and about 1000 and 100 GRPs were simultaneously observed at the main pulse and inter-pulse phases, respectively, and we found no apparent correlation between the giant radio pulses and the X-ray emission in either the main pulse or inter-pulse phase. All variations are within the 2 sigma fluctuations of the X-ray fluxes at the pulse peaks, and the 3 sigma upper limits of variations of main pulse or inter-pulse GRPs are 22% or 80% of the peak flux in a 0.20 phase width, respectively, in the 2-300 keV band. The values for main pulse or inter-pulse GRPs become 25% or 110%, respectively, when the phase width is restricted to the 0.03 phase. Among the upper limits from the Hitomi satellite, those in the 4.5-10 keV and 70-300 keV bands are obtained for the first time, and those in other bands are consistent with previous reports. Numerically, the upper limits of the main pulse and inter-pulse GRPs in the 0.20 phase width are about (2.4 and 9.3) x 10(-11) erg cm(-2), respectively. No significant variability in pulse profiles implies that the GRPs originated from a local place within the magneto-sphere. Although the number of photon-emitting particles should temporarily increase to account for the brightening of the radio emission, the results do not statistically rule out variations correlated with the GRPs, because the possible X-ray enhancement may appear due to a > 0.02% brightening of the pulse-peak flux under such conditions.
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| 23. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Measurements of resonant scattering in the Perseus Cluster core with Hitomi SXS
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thanks to its high spectral resolution (similar to 5 eV at 6 keV), the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board Hitomi enables us to measure the detailed structure of spatially resolved emission lines from highly ionized ions in galaxy clusters for the first time. In this series of papers, using the SXS we have measured the velocities of gas motions, metallicities and the multi-temperature structure of the gas in the core of the Perseus Cluster. Here, we show that when inferring physical properties from line emissivities in systems like Perseus, the resonant scattering effect should be taken into account. In the Hitomi waveband, resonant scattering mostly affects the Fe XXV He alpha line (w)-the strongest line in the spectrum. The flux measured by Hitomi in this line is suppressed by a factor of similar to 1.3 in the inner similar to 30 kpc, compared to predictions for an optically thin plasma; the suppression decreases with the distance from the center. The w line also appears slightly broader than other lines from the same ion. The observed distortions of the w line flux, shape, and distance dependence are all consistent with the expected effect of the resonant scattering in the Perseus core. By measuring the ratio of fluxes in optically thick (w) and thin (Fe XXV forbidden, He beta, Ly alpha) lines, and comparing these ratios with predictions from Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations, the velocities of gas motions have been obtained. The results are consistent with the direct measurements of gas velocities from line broadening described elsewhere in this series, although the systematic and statistical uncertainties remain significant. Further improvements in the predictions of line emissivities in plasma models, and deeper observations with future X-ray missions offering similar or better capabilities to the Hitomi SXS, will enable resonant scattering measurements to provide powerful constraints on the amplitude and anisotropy of cluster gas motions.
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| 24. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Search for thermal X-ray features from the Crab nebula with the Hitomi soft X-ray spectrometer
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0004-6264 .- 2053-051X. ; 70:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Crab nebula originated from a core-collapse supernova (SN) explosion observed in 1054 AD. When viewed as a supernova remnant (SNR), it has an anomalously low observed ejecta mass and kinetic energy for an Fe-core-collapse SN. Intensive searches have been made for a massive shell that solves this discrepancy, but none has been detected. An alternative idea is that SN 1054 is an electron-capture (EC) explosion with a lower explosion energy by an order of magnitude than Fe-core-collapse SNe. X-ray imaging searches were performed for the plasma emission from the shell in the Crab outskirts to set a stringent upper limit on the X-ray emitting mass. However, the extreme brightness of the source hampers access to its vicinity. We thus employed spectroscopic technique using the X-ray micro-calorimeter on board the Hitomi satellite. By exploiting its superb energy resolution, we set an upper limit for emission or absorption features from as yet undetected thermal plasma in the 2-12 keV range. We also re-evaluated the existing Chandra and XMM-Newton data. By assembling these results, a new upper limit was obtained for the X-ray plasma mass of less than or similar to 1 M-circle dot for a wide range of assumed shell radius, size, and plasma temperature values both in and out of collisional equilibrium. To compare with the observation, we further performed hydrodynamic simulations of the Crab SNR for two SN models (Fe-core versus EC) under two SN environments (uniform interstellar medium versus progenitor wind). We found that the observed mass limit can be compatible with both SN models if the SN environment has a low density of less than or similar to 0.03 cm(-3) (Fe core) or less than or similar to 0.1 cm(-3) (EC) for the uniform density, or a progenitor wind density somewhat less than that provided by amass loss rate of 10(-5) M-circle dot yr(-1) at 20 km s(-1) for the wind environment.
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| 25. |
- Aharonian, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Solar abundance ratios of the iron-peak elements in the Perseus cluster
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 551:7681, s. 478-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The metal abundance of the hot plasma that permeates galaxy clusters represents the accumulation of heavy elements produced by billions of supernovae(1). Therefore, X-ray spectroscopy of the intracluster medium provides an opportunity to investigate the nature of supernova explosions integrated over cosmic time. In particular, the abundance of the iron-peak elements (chromium, manganese, iron and nickel) is key to understanding how the progenitors of typical type Ia supernovae evolve and explode(2-6). Recent X-ray studies of the intracluster medium found that the abundance ratios of these elements differ substantially from those seen in the Sun(7-11), suggesting differences between the nature of type Ia supernovae in the clusters and in the Milky Way. However, because the K-shell transition lines of chromium and manganese are weak and those of iron and nickel are very close in photon energy, highresolution spectroscopy is required for an accurate determination of the abundances of these elements. Here we report observations of the Perseus cluster, with statistically significant detections of the resonance emission from chromium, manganese and nickel. Our measurements, combined with the latest atomic models, reveal that these elements have near-solar abundance ratios with respect to iron, in contrast to previous claims. Comparison between our results and modern nucleosynthesis calculations(12-14) disfavours the hypothesis that type Ia supernova progenitors are exclusively white dwarfs with masses well below the Chandrasekhar limit (about 1.4 times the mass of the Sun). The observed abundance pattern of the iron-peak elements can be explained by taking into account a combination of near-and sub-Chandrasekhar-mass type Ia supernova systems, adding to the mounting evidence that both progenitor types make a substantial contribution to cosmic chemical enrichment(5,15,16).
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