| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Amano, Tatsuya, et al.
(författare)
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Transforming Practice : Checklists for Delivering Change
- 2022
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Ingår i: Transforming Conservation : A Practical Guide to Evidence and Decision Making - A Practical Guide to Evidence and Decision Making. - 9781800648562 - 9781800648586 ; , s. 367-386
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Delivering a revolution in evidence use requires a cultural change across society. For a wide range of groups (practitioners, knowledge brokers, organisations, organisational leaders, policy makers, funders, researchers, journal publishers, the wider conservation community, educators, writers, and journalists), options are described to facilitate a change in practice, and a series of downloadable checklists is provided.
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| 3. |
- Baey, Charlotte, et al.
(författare)
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A model to account for data dependency when estimating floral cover in different land use types over a season
- 2017
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Ingår i: Environmental and Ecological Statistics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1352-8505 .- 1573-3009. ; 24:4, s. 505-527
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We propose a model to consider data dependencies and assess spatial and temporal variability in land use specific floral coverage across landscapes. Data dependence arising from repeated measurements across the flowering season is taken into account using hierarchical Archimedean copulas, where the correlation is assumed to be stronger within seasonal periods than between periods. For each seasonal period, a bounded probability distribution is assigned to capture spatial variability in floral cover. The model uses a Bayesian approach and can assess land-use-specific floral covers by integrating experts judgments and field data. The model is applied to assess floral covers in four land use types in southern Sweden, where seasonal variability is captured by dividing the season into two periods according to winter oilseed rape flowering. Floral cover is updated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling based on data from 16 landscapes and 2 years, with repeated measures available from each of the two seasonal periods. Our results indicate that considering data dependence improved the estimation of floral cover based on data observed during a season. Different copula families specifying multivariate probability distributions were tested, and no family had a consistently higher performance in the four tested land use types. Uncertainty in both mode and variability of floral cover was higher when data dependence were accounted for. Posterior modes of floral covers in semi-natural grassland were higher than in field edges, but both expert’s best guesses were higher than these estimates. This confirms previous findings in expert elicitation processes that experts may fail to discriminate extreme values on a bounded range. Floral cover in flower strips were estimated to be smaller/higher than semi-natural grasslands early/late in the season. The mode of floral cover in oil seed rape was estimated to be close to 100%, and higher than estimates provided by expert judgment. Floral covers for different land use classes are key parameters when quantifying floral resources at a landscape level whose assessments rely on both expert judgment and field measurements.
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| 4. |
- Baey, Charlotte, et al.
(författare)
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Calibration of a bumble bee foraging model using Approximate Bayesian Computation
- 2023
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Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800. ; 477
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Challenging calibration of complex models can be approached by using prior knowledge on the parameters. However, the natural choice of Bayesian inference can be computationally heavy when relying on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. When the likelihood of the data is intractable, alternative Bayesian methods have been proposed. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) only requires sampling from the data generative model, but may be problematic when the dimension of the data is high. 2. We studied alternative strategies to handle high dimensional data in ABC applied to the calibration of a spatially explicit foraging model for Bombus terrestris. The first step consisted in building a set of summary statistics carrying enough biological meaning, i.e. as much as the original data, and then applying ABC on this set. Two ABC strategies, the use of regression adjustment leading to the production of ABC posterior samples, and the use of machine learning approaches to approximate ABC posterior quantiles, were compared with respect to coverage of model estimates and true parameter values. The comparison was made on simulated data as well as on data from two field studies. 3. Results from simulated data showed that some model parameters were easier to calibrate than others. Approaches based on random forests in general performed better on simulated data. They also performed well on field data, even though the posterior predictive distribution exhibited a higher variance. Nonlinear regression adjustment performed better than linear ones, and the classical ABC rejection algorithm performed badly. 4. ABC is an interesting and appealing approach for the calibration of complex models in biology, such as spatially explicit foraging models. However, while ABC methods are easy to implement, they often require considerable tuning.
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| 5. |
- Blanke, Jan Hendrik, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching
- 2017
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Ingår i: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-8809. ; 239, s. 385-398
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in wheat and maize yield but also N leaching for most regions when driven by changes in land-use intensity and climate under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5, N leaching is reduced in 53% of the regions while there is a trade-off in crop productivity. The most important factors influencing yield were CO2 (wheat) and climate (maize), but N application almost equaled these in importance. For N leaching, N application was the most important factor, followed by climate. Therefore, using a constant N application dataset in the absence of future projections has a substantial effect on simulated ecosystem responses, especially for maize yield and N leaching. This study is a first assessment of future N leaching and yield responses based on projections of climate and land-use intensity. It further highlights the importance of accounting for changes in future N applications and land-use intensity in general when evaluating environmental impacts over long time periods.
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| 6. |
- Blanke, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Implications of accounting for management intensity on carbon and nitrogen balances of European grasslands
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 13:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- European managed grasslands are amongst the most productive in the world. Besides temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation, grass production is also highly controlled by applications of nitrogen fertilizers and land management to sustain a high productivity. Since management characteristics of pastures vary greatly across Europe, land-use intensity and their projections are critical input variables in earth system modeling when examining and predicting the effects of increasingly intensified agricultural and livestock systems on the environment. In this study, we aim to improve the representation of pastures in the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. This is done by incorporating daily carbon allocation for grasses as a foundation to further implement daily land management routines and land-use intensity data into the model to discriminate between intensively and extensively used regions. We further compare our new simulations with leaf area index observations, reported regional grassland productivity, and simulations conducted with the vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM. Additionally, we analyze the implications of including pasture fertilization and daily management compared to the standard version of LPJ-GUESS. Our results demonstrate that grassland productivity cannot be adequately captured without including land-use intensity data in form of nitrogen applications. Using this type of information improved spatial patterns of grassland productivity significantly compared to standard LPJ-GUESS. In general, simulations for net primary productivity, net ecosystem carbon balance and nitrogen leaching were considerably increased in the extended version. Finally, the adapted version of LPJ-GUESS, driven with projections of climate and land-use intensity, simulated an increase in potential grassland productivity until 2050 for several agro-climatic regions, most notably for the Mediterranean North, the Mediterranean South, the Atlantic Central and the Atlantic South.
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| 7. |
- Blasi, Maria, et al.
(författare)
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A model of wild bee populations accounting for spatial heterogeneity and climate-induced temporal variability of food resources at the landscape level
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 12:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The viability of wild bee populations and the pollination services that they provide are driven by the availability of food resources during their activity period and within the surroundings of their nesting sites. Changes in climate and land use influence the availability of these resources and are major threats to declining bee populations. Because wild bees may be vulnerable to interactions between these threats, spatially explicit models of population dynamics that capture how bee populations jointly respond to land use at a landscape scale and weather are needed. Here, we developed a spatially and temporally explicit theoretical model of wild bee populations aiming for a middle ground between the existing mapping of visitation rates using foraging equations and more refined agent-based modeling. The model is developed for Bombus sp. and captures within-season colony dynamics. The model describes mechanistically foraging at the colony level and temporal population dynamics for an average colony at the landscape level. Stages in population dynamics are temperature-dependent triggered by a theoretical generalized seasonal progression, which can be informed by growing degree days. The purpose of the LandscapePhenoBee model is to evaluate the impact of system changes and within-season variability in resources on bee population sizes and crop visitation rates. In a simulation study, we used the model to evaluate the impact of the shortage of food resources in the landscape arising from extreme drought events in different types of landscapes (ranging from different proportions of semi-natural habitats and early and late flowering crops) on bumblebee populations.
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| 8. |
- Brandmaier, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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PLS-Optimal: A stepwise D-Optimal design based on latent variables
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1549-9596 .- 1549-960X. ; 52:4, s. 975-983
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several applications, such as risk assessment within REACH or drug discovery, require reliable methods for the design of experiments and efficient testing strategies. Keeping the number of experiments as low as possible is important from both a financial and an ethical point of view, as exhaustive testing of compounds requires significant financial resources and animal lives. With a large initial set of compounds, experimental design techniques can be used to select a representative subset for testing. Once measured, these compounds can be used to develop quantitative structure–activity relationship models to predict properties of the remaining compounds. This reduces the required resources and time. D-Optimal design is frequently used to select an optimal set of compounds by analyzing data variance. We developed a new sequential approach to apply a D-Optimal design to latent variables derived from a partial least squares (PLS) model instead of principal components. The stepwise procedure selects a new set of molecules to be measured after each previous measurement cycle. We show that application of the D-Optimal selection generates models with a significantly improved performance on four different data sets with end points relevant for REACH. Compared to those derived from principal components, PLS models derived from the selection on latent variables had a lower root-mean-square error and a higher Q2 and R2. This improvement is statistically significant, especially for the small number of compounds selected.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Cassani, Stefano, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of CADASTER QSAR Models for the Aquatic Toxicity of (Benzo)triazoles and Prioritisation by Consensus Prediction
- 2013
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Ingår i: ATLA (Alternatives to Laboratory Animals). - : SAGE Publications. - 0261-1929. ; 41:1, s. 49-64
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- QSAR regression models of the toxicity of triazoles and benzotriazoles ([B] TAZs) to an alga (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata), Daphnia magna and a fish (Onchorhynchus mykiss), were developed by five partners in the FP7-EU Project, CADASTER. The models were developed by different methods - Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Partial Least Squares (PLS), Bayesian regularised regression and Associative Neural Network (ASNN) - by using various molecular descriptors (DRAGON, PaDEL-Descriptor and QSPR-THESAURUS web). In addition, different procedures were used for variable selection, validation and applicability domain inspection. The predictions of the models developed, as well as those obtained in a consensus approach by averaging the data predicted from each model, were compared with the results of experimental tests that were performed by two CADASTER partners. The individual and consensus models were able to correctly predict the toxicity classes of the chemicals tested in the CADASTER project, confirming the utility of the QSAR approach. The models were also used for the prediction of aquatic toxicity of over 300 (B)TAZs, many of which are included in the REACH pre-registration list, and were without experimental data. This highlights the importance of QSAR models for the screening and prioritisation of untested chemicals, in order to reduce and focus experimental testing.
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| 11. |
- Durjava, Mojca Kos, et al.
(författare)
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Experimental Assessment of the Environmental Fate and Effects of Triazoles and Benzotriazole
- 2013
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Ingår i: ATLA (Alternatives to Laboratory Animals). - : SAGE Publications. - 0261-1929. ; 41:1, s. 65-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The environmental fate and effects of triazoles and benzotriazoles are of concern within the context of chemical regulation. As part of an intelligent testing strategy, experimental tests were performed on endpoints that are relevant for risk assessment. The experimental tests included the assessment of eco-toxicity to an alga, a daphnid and zebrafish embryos, and the assessment of ready biodegradability. Triazole and benzotriazole compounds were selected for testing, based on existing toxicity data for vertebrate and invertebrate species, as well as on the principal component analysis of molecular descriptors aimed at selecting the minimum number of test compounds in order to maximise the chemical domain spanned for both compound classes. The experimental results show that variation in the toxicities of triazoles and benzotriazole across species was relatively minor; in general, the largest factor was approximately 20. The study conducted indicated that triazoles are not readily biodegradable.
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| 12. |
- Dänhardt, Juliana, et al.
(författare)
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Mot en evidensbaserad CAP
- 2016
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- EU:s gemensamma jordbrukspolitik (CAP) är ett av de viktigaste styrmedlen för svenskt jordbruk, både när det gäller ekonomiska resurser och med avseende på hur stora arealer mark som påverkas. I den nuvarande CAP finns medel avsatta för miljöåtgärder såväl inom pelare 1 genom de så kallade förgröningsåtgärderna, som genom Landsbygdsprogrammet (pelare 2) via miljöstöden. Därmed skulle det kunna finnas stora möjligheter att genom CAP:s olika kanaler påverka biologisk mångfald och ekosystemtjänster i jordbrukslandskapet. För att utveckla välfungerande och kostnadseffektiva styrmedel krävs att dessa byggs på en vetenskaplig kunskapsbas, att man utvärderar om stöden uppnår sina syften och att man undersöker hur ersättningarnas effekt skulle kunna förbättras med en alternativ utformning. En generell slutsats från vår forskning är att den vetenskapliga underbyggnaden av CAP uppvisar brister och att en utvärdering och utveckling av stöden borde byggas in som en organisk del av CAP. Vi föreslår att ett sådant utvärderingssystem, inklusive insamling av ett tillräckligt dataunderlag med lämpliga metoder, integreras i CAP och täcker hela programperioden.
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| 13. |
- Ekelund Ugge, Gustaf Magnus Oskar, et al.
(författare)
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Transcriptional Responses as Biomarkers of General Toxicity : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis on Metal-Exposed Bivalves
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0730-7268 .- 1552-8618. ; 42:3, s. 628-641
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Through a systematic review and a series of meta-analyses, we evaluated the general responsiveness of putative transcriptional biomarkers of general toxicity and chemical stress. We targeted metal exposures performed on bivalves under controlled laboratory conditions, and selected six transcripts associated with general toxicity for evaluation: catalase (cat), glutathione-S-transferase (gst), heat shock proteins 70 and 90 (hsp70, hsp90), metallothionein (mt) and superoxide dismutase (sod). Transcriptional responses (n = 396) were extracted from published scientific articles (k = 22) and converted to log response ratios (lnRRs). By estimating toxic units (TUs), we normalized different metal exposures to a common scale, as a proxy of concentration. Using Bayesian hierarchical random effect models, we then tested the effects of metal exposure on lnRR, both for metal exposure in general and in meta-regressions using TU and exposure time as independent variables. Corresponding analyses were also repeated with transcript and tissue as additional moderators. Observed patterns were similar for general as for transcript- and tissue-specific responses. The expected overall response to arbitrary metal exposure was a lnRR of 0.50, corresponding to a 65 % increase relative a non-exposed control. However, when accounting for publication bias, the estimated ‘true’ response showed no such effect. Furthermore, expected response magnitude increased slightly with exposure time, but there was little support for general monotonic concentration-dependence with regards to TU. Altogether, this work reveals potential limitations that need consideration prior to applying the selected transcripts as biomarkers in environmental risk assessment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;00:0–0.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Golsteijn, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing predictive uncertainty in comparative toxicity potentials of triazoles
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. - : Wiley. - 0730-7268 .- 1552-8618. ; 33:2, s. 293-301
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Comparative toxicity potentials (CTPs) quantify the potential ecotoxicological impacts of chemicals per unit of emission. They are the product of a substance's environmental fate, exposure, and hazardous concentration. When empirical data are lacking, substance properties can be predicted. The goal of the present study was to assess the influence of predictive uncertainty in substance property predictions on the CTPs of triazoles. Physicochemical and toxic properties were predicted with quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs), and uncertainty in the predictions was quantified with use of the data underlying the QSARs. Degradation half-lives were based on a probability distribution representing experimental half-lives of triazoles. Uncertainty related to the species' sample size that was present in the prediction of the hazardous aquatic concentration was also included. All parameter uncertainties were treated as probability distributions, and propagated by Monte Carlo simulations. The 90% confidence interval of the CTPs typically spanned nearly 4 orders of magnitude. The CTP uncertainty was mainly determined by uncertainty in soil sorption and soil degradation rates, together with the small number of species sampled. In contrast, uncertainty in species-specific toxicity predictions contributed relatively little. The findings imply that the reliability of CTP predictions for the chemicals studied can be improved particularly by including experimental data for soil sorption and soil degradation, and by developing toxicity QSARs for more species. (c) 2013 SETAC
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| 16. |
- Govender, Indrani Hazel, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian Network Applications for Sustainable Holistic Water Resources Management : Modeling Opportunities for South Africa
- 2022
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Ingår i: Risk Analysis. - : Wiley. - 0272-4332 .- 1539-6924. ; 42:6, s. 1346-1364
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Anthropogenic transformation of land globally is threatening water resources in terms of quality and availability. Managing water resources to ensure sustainable utilization is important for a semiarid country such as South Africa. Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that have been applied globally to a range of water resources management studies; however, there has been very limited application of BNs to similar studies in South Africa. This article explores the benefits and challenges of BN application in the context of water resources management, specifically in relation to South Africa. A brief overview describes BNs, followed by details of some of the possible opportunities for BNs to benefit water resources management. These include the ability to use quantitative and qualitative information, data, and expert knowledge. BN models can be integrated into geographic information systems and predict impact of ecosystem services and sustainability indicators. With additional data and information, BNs can be updated, allowing for integration into an adaptive management process. Challenges in the application of BNs include oversimplification of complex systems, constraints of BNs with categorical nodes for continuous variables, unclear use of expert knowledge, and treatment of uncertainty. BNs have tremendous potential to guide decision making by providing a holistic approach to water resources management.
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| 17. |
- Grönholdt Palm, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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Strategies to deal with information of different reliability exemplified by the use of QSARs to fill the algae data gaps in LCIAs of plastic additives
- 2015
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Ingår i: SETAC Europe 25th Annual Meeting.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Data gaps are problematic when screening fordangerous substances or in impact assessments where several chemicals are considered for evaluation. Lacking testing information can be replaced by non-testing information such as Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships (QSARs), but even though this latter information comes with lower reliability, this is seldom taken into account in theforthcoming assessments. The difficulty to meet standards for best information calls for strategies to handle data gaps which take varying reliability in information into account. Using safety factors when reliability is low can be problematic since this result in more conservative evaluations of substances for which information is of lowreliability and an unknown level of risk aversion in the assessment. An alternative is to reflect lower reliability using probability distributions representing the expected error in the information and propagate this uncertainty in the forthcoming assessments using Monte Carlo analysis.It is even possible to let the error to expect from QSARs depend to what extent a substance falls inside the models domain of applicability.QSARs cannot fill all gaps in data. Default values can be used instead of leaving substances out of assessments, but if so, these should reflect lowreliability as well. We demonstrate the practical implications of four strategies to handle varying reliability in information on algal toxicity in a Life Cycle Impact Assessment on 159 plastic additives of concernusing emissions from societal plastic materials in Sweden. A review concluded that a small amount of these substances had toxicity data for algae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata. A QSAR was constructed which provided non-testing algal information of substances inside and on theborder of the models domain of applicability evaluated by PmodXPS.Substances with neither testing nor non-testing information were assigned default values. Screening based on characterization factors resulted in different rankings of substances when changing the level of cautiousness. The different strategies to handle varying reliability ininformation do more or less open up for quantifying uncertainty in Life Cycle Impact Assessments.
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| 18. |
- Hallin, Caroline, et al.
(författare)
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De värsta konsekvenserna av Babet ligger framför oss
- 2024
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Ingår i: Sydsvenskan. - 1652-814X.
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Debattartikel om kustskydd och brister i framförhållningen inför kommande stormar under Aktuella frågor i Sydsvenskan.
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| 19. |
- Hedlund, Katarina, et al.
(författare)
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Utmaningar och möjligheter
- 2022
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Ingår i: Markanvändning för en klimatpositiv framtid : En rapport om utmaningar och möjligheter i Skåne - En rapport om utmaningar och möjligheter i Skåne. - 9789198434996 - 9789198434989 ; , s. 48-60
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 20. |
- Holmes, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Marine protected areas modulate habitat suitability of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in the Baltic Sea
- 2019
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Ingår i: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 0272-7714. ; 229
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biological invasions are one of the leading causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. Given that eradication of invasive species is not usually a practical option, conservationists may attempt to limit their impacts through the designation and management of protected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of marine protected areas on the habitat suitability of an invasive species, the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus). By modelling its environmental niche space in the Baltic Sea, we demonstrated that gobies prefer shallow, warmer waters, sheltered from significant wave action. They are more likely to be found near areas of intense shipping, this being their primary method of long-distance dispersal. Comparison of the goby's occurrences inside/outside protected areas indicated that suitable habitats within protected areas are more resistant to the round goby's invasion compared to adjacent unprotected areas, however the opposite is true for suboptimal habitats. This has important ecosystem management implications with marine conservation areas providing mitigation measures to control the spread of round goby in its optimal habitats in the Baltic Sea environment. Being subjected to reduced human impacts, native species within protected areas may be more numerous and diverse, helping to resist invasive species incursion.
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| 21. |
- Holmquist, Hanna, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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The potential to use QSAR to populate ecotoxicity characterisation factors for simplified LCIA and chemical prioritisation
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1614-7502 .- 0948-3349. ; 23:11, s. 2208-2216
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: Today’s chemical society use and emit an enormous number of different, potentially ecotoxic, chemicals to the environment. The vast majority of substances do not have characterisation factors describing their ecotoxicity potential. A first stage, high throughput, screening tool is needed for prioritisation of which substances need further measures. Methods: USEtox characterisation factors were calculated in this work based on data generated by quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to expand substance coverage where characterisation factors were missing. Existing QSAR models for physico-chemical data and ecotoxicity were used, and to further fill data gaps, an algae QSAR model was developed. The existing USEtox characterisation factors were used as reference to evaluate the impact from the use of QSARs to generate input data to USEtox, with focus on ecotoxicity data. An inventory of chemicals that make up the Swedish societal stock of plastic additives, and their associated predicted emissions, was used as a case study to rank chemicals according to their ecotoxicity potential. Results and discussion: For the 210 chemicals in the inventory, only 41 had characterisation factors in the USEtox database. With the use of QSAR generated substance data, an additional 89 characterisation factors could be calculated, substantially improving substance coverage in the ranking. The choice of QSAR model was shown to be important for the reliability of the results, but also with the best correlated model results, the discrepancies between characterisation factors based on estimated data and experimental data were very large. Conclusions: The use of QSAR estimated data as basis for calculation of characterisation factors, and the further use of those factors for ranking based on ecotoxicity potential, was assessed as a feasible way to gather substance data for large datasets. However, further research and development of the guidance on how to make use of estimated data is needed to achieve improvement of the accuracy of the results.
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| 22. |
- Hristov, Jordan, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy “Greening” Reform on Agricultural Development, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services
- 2020
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Ingår i: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. - : Wiley. - 2040-5790 .- 2040-5804. ; 42:4, s. 716-738
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has had limited success in mitigating agriculture's environmental degradation. In this paper we simulate the impacts of the 2013 “greening” reform on biodiversity and ecosystem services in environmentally contrasting landscapes. We do this by integrating an agent-based model of structural change with spatial ecological production functions, and show that the reform will likely fail to deliver substantial environmental benefits. Our study implies that greening measures need to be tailored to local conditions and priorities, to generate environmental improvements. Such spatial targeting of measures is though incompatible with the design of a common direct payments scheme.
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| 23. |
- Häussler, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
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Pollinator population size and pollination ecosystem service responses to enhancing floral and nesting resources
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 7:6, s. 1898-1908
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Modeling pollination ecosystem services requires a spatially explicit, process-based approach because they depend on both the behavioral responses of pollinators to the amount and spatial arrangement of habitat and on the within- and between-season dynamics of pollinator populations in response to land use. We describe a novel pollinator model predicting flower visitation rates by wild central-place foragers (e.g., nesting bees) in spatially explicit landscapes. The model goes beyond existing approaches by: (1) integrating preferential use of more rewarding floral and nesting resources; (2) considering population growth over time; (3) allowing different dispersal distances for workers and reproductives; (4) providing visitation rates for use in crop pollination models. We use the model to estimate the effect of establishing grassy field margins offering nesting resources and a low quantity of flower resources, and/or late-flowering flower strips offering no nesting resources but abundant flowers, on bumble bee populations and visitation rates to flowers in landscapes that differ in amounts of linear seminatural habitats and early mass-flowering crops. Flower strips were three times more effective in increasing pollinator populations and visitation rates than field margins, and this effect increased over time. Late-blooming flower strips increased early-season visitation rates, but decreased visitation rates in other late-season flowers. Increases in population size over time in response to flower strips and amounts of linear seminatural habitats reduced this apparent competition for pollinators. Our spatially explicit, process-based model generates emergent patterns reflecting empirical observations, such that adding flower resources may have contrasting short- and long-term effects due to apparent competition for pollinators and pollinator population size increase. It allows exploring these effects and comparing effect sizes in ways not possible with other existing models. Future applications include species comparisons, analysis of the sensitivity of predictions to life-history traits, as well as large-scale management intervention and policy assessment.
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
- Iqbal, Muhammad Sarfraz, et al.
(författare)
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Treatment of Epistemic Uncertainty in Environmental Fate Models –Consequences on Chemical Safety Regulatory Strategies
- 2012
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The practical impact of treatment of epistemic uncertainty on decision making wasillustrated on two kinds of decisions from chemical regulation. First, regulatory strategies derivedfrom a simplified decision model based on toxicity and persistence showed that regulated level ofexposure is more conservative (safe) when uncertainty has been given a non-probabilistictreatment. Persistence and its uncertainty had been assessed by a Level II fugacity model forwhich input parameters had been quantified either by Bayesian probabilities, fuzzy numbers(non-probabilistic), or combinations of these (probability boxes). These findings are restricted tohow we let decision makers respond to uncertainty in model predictions by the chosen set ofdecision rules. Further, the use of either treatment depends on the quality and quantity ofbackground knowledge and the required level of detail on the assessment. In the absence ofexperimentally tested physicochemical endpoints, European chemical regulation REACH allowsthe use of non-testing strategies such as Quantitative Structure-Property Relationships (QSPR) topredict the required information. The second decision problem was to select which chemicalsubstances to prioritize for experimental testing in order to strengthen the background knowledgefor chemical regulation with respect to the uncertainty in QSPR predictions. We found that thevalue of reducing uncertainty, given by the expected gain in net benefit for society, was affectedby its treatment and there were no consistent order of testing of the three compounds. However,value of information is a Bayesian probabilistic approach that, unless developed further, loose itsinterpretability under other treatments of uncertainty. The framework of a predictive model, riskmodel, decision model and value of information analysis provides a computational template forfurther evaluation of the effect of treatment of uncertainty on decision making.
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