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- Blach, S., et al.
(författare)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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- Razavi, H., et al.
(författare)
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Hepatitis C virus prevalence and level of intervention required to achieve the WHO targets for elimination in the European Union by 2030: a modelling study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 2:5, s. 325-336
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets. Findings We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3 238 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 106 000-3 795 000) of a total population of 509 868 000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0.64% (95% UI 0.41-0.74). We estimated that 1 180 000 (95% UI 1 003 000-1 357 000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36.4%), 150 000 (12 000-180 000) were treated (4.6% of the total infected population or 12.7% of the diagnosed population), 133 000 (106 000-160 000) were cured (4.1%), and 57 900 (43 900-67 300) were newly infected (1.8%) in 2015. Additionally, 30 400 (26 600-42 500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150 000 patients in 2015 to 187 000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88 800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180 000 in 2025. Interpretation Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary.
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| 11. |
- Burisch, J., et al.
(författare)
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East-West gradient in the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in Europe: the ECCO-EpiCom inception cohort
- 2014
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Ingår i: Gut. - : BMJ Publishing Group. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288. ; 63:4, s. 588-597
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective The incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing in Eastern Europe. The reasons for these changes remain unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate whether an East–West gradient in the incidence of IBD in Europe exists.Design A prospective, uniformly diagnosed, population based inception cohort of IBD patients in 31 centres from 14 Western and eight Eastern European countries covering a total background population of approximately 10.1 million people was created. One-third of the centres had previous experience with inception cohorts. Patients were entered into a low cost, web based epidemiological database, making participation possible regardless of socioeconomic status and prior experience.Results 1515 patients aged 15 years or older were included, of whom 535 (35%) were diagnosed with Crohn's disease (CD), 813 (54%) with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 167 (11%) with IBD unclassified (IBDU). The overall incidence rate ratios in all Western European centres were 1.9 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.4) for CD and 2.1 (95% CI 1.8 to 2.6) for UC compared with Eastern European centres. The median crude annual incidence rates per 100 000 in 2010 for CD were 6.5 (range 0–10.7) in Western European centres and 3.1 (range 0.4–11.5) in Eastern European centres, for UC 10.8 (range 2.9–31.5) and 4.1 (range 2.4–10.3), respectively, and for IBDU 1.9 (range 0–39.4) and 0 (range 0–1.2), respectively. In Western Europe, 92% of CD, 78% of UC and 74% of IBDU patients had a colonoscopy performed as the diagnostic procedure compared with 90%, 100% and 96%, respectively, in Eastern Europe. 8% of CD and 1% of UC patients in both regions underwent surgery within the first 3 months of the onset of disease. 7% of CD patients and 3% of UC patients from Western Europe received biological treatment as rescue therapy. Of all European CD patients, 20% received only 5-aminosalicylates as induction therapy.Conclusions An East–West gradient in IBD incidence exists in Europe. Among this inception cohort—including indolent and aggressive cases—international guidelines for diagnosis and initial treatment are not being followed uniformly by physicians.
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- Burisch, J, et al.
(författare)
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Natural disease course of Crohn's disease during the first 5 years after diagnosis in a European population-based inception cohort: an Epi-IBD study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Gut. - : BMJ. - 1468-3288 .- 0017-5749. ; 68:3, s. 423-433
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Epi-IBD cohort is a prospective population-based inception cohort of unselected patients with inflammatory bowel disease from 29 European centres covering a background population of almost 10 million people. The aim of this study was to assess the 5-year outcome and disease course of patients with Crohn’s disease (CD).DesignPatients were followed up prospectively from the time of diagnosis, including collection of their clinical data, demographics, disease activity, medical therapy, surgery, cancers and deaths. Associations between outcomes and multiple covariates were analysed by Cox regression analysis.ResultsIn total, 488 patients were included in the study. During follow-up, 107 (22%) patients received surgery, while 176 (36%) patients were hospitalised because of CD. A total of 49 (14%) patients diagnosed with non-stricturing, non-penetrating disease progressed to either stricturing and/or penetrating disease. These rates did not differ between patients from Western and Eastern Europe. However, significant geographic differences were noted regarding treatment: more patients in Western Europe received biological therapy (33%) and immunomodulators (66%) than did those in Eastern Europe (14% and 54%, respectively, P<0.01), while more Eastern European patients received 5-aminosalicylates (90% vs 56%, P<0.05). Treatment with immunomodulators reduced the risk of surgery (HR: 0.4, 95% CI 0.2 to 0.6) and hospitalisation (HR: 0.3, 95% CI 0.2 to 0.5).ConclusionDespite patients being treated early and frequently with immunomodulators and biological therapy in Western Europe, 5-year outcomes including surgery and phenotype progression in this cohort were comparable across Western and Eastern Europe. Differences in treatment strategies between Western and Eastern European centres did not affect the disease course. Treatment with immunomodulators reduced the risk of surgery and hospitalisation.
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| 20. |
- Burisch, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Costs and resource utilization for diagnosis and treatment during the initial year in a European inflammatory bowel disease inception cohort : an ECCO-EpiCom Study
- 2015
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Ingår i: Inflammatory Bowel Diseases. - 1078-0998 .- 1536-4844. ; 21:1, s. 121-131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: No direct comparison of health care cost in patients with inflammatory bowel disease across the European continent exists. The aim of this study was to assess the costs of investigations and treatment for diagnostics and during the first year after diagnosis in Europe.METHODS: The EpiCom cohort is a prospective population-based inception cohort of unselected inflammatory bowel disease patients from 31 Western and Eastern European centers. Patients were followed every third month from diagnosis, and clinical data regarding treatment and investigations were collected. Costs were calculated in euros (&OV0556;) using the Danish Health Costs Register.RESULTS: One thousand three hundred sixty-seven patients were followed, 710 with ulcerative colitis, 509 with Crohn's disease, and 148 with inflammatory bowel disease unclassified. Total expenditure for the cohort was &OV0556;5,408,174 (investigations: &OV0556;2,042,990 [38%], surgery: &OV0556;1,427,648 [26%], biologicals: &OV0556;781,089 [14%], and standard treatment: &OV0556;1,156,520 [22%)]). Mean crude expenditure per patient in Western Europe (Eastern Europe) with Crohn's disease: investigations &OV0556;1803 (&OV0556;2160) (P = 0.44), surgery &OV0556;11,489 (&OV0556;13,973) (P = 0.14), standard treatment &OV0556;1027 (&OV0556;824) (P = 0.51), and biologicals &OV0556;7376 (&OV0556;8307) (P = 0.31). Mean crude expenditure per patient in Western Europe (Eastern Europe) with ulcerative colitis: investigations &OV0556;1189 (&OV0556;1518) (P < 0.01), surgery &OV0556;18,414 (&OV0556;12,395) (P = 0.18), standard treatment &OV0556;896 (&OV0556;798) (P < 0.05), and biologicals &OV0556;5681 (&OV0556;72) (P = 0.51).CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based unselected cohort, costs during the first year of disease were mainly incurred by investigative procedures and surgeries. However, biologicals accounted for >15% of costs. Long-term follow-up of the cohort is needed to assess the cost-effectiveness of biological agents.
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| 21. |
- Burisch, J., et al.
(författare)
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Environmental factors in a population-based inception cohort of inflammatory bowel disease patients in Europe : An ECCO-EpiCom study
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Crohn's & Colitis. - : Oxford University Press. - 1873-9946 .- 1876-4479. ; 8:7, s. 607-616
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Aims: The incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing in Eastern Europe possibly due to changes in environmental factors towards a more "westernised" standard of Living. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in exposure to environmental factors prior to diagnosis in Eastern and Western European IBD patients.Methods: The EpiCom cohort is a population-based, prospective inception cohort of 1560 unselected IBD patients from 31 European countries covering a background population of 10.1 million. At the time of diagnosis patients were asked to complete an 87-item questionnaire concerning environmental factors.Results: A total of 1182 patients (76%) answered the questionnaire, 444 (38%) had Crohn's disease (CD), 627 (53%) ulcerative colitis (UC), and 111 (9%) IBD unclassified. No geographic differences regarding smoking status, caffeine intake, use of oral contraceptives, or number of first-degree relatives with IBD were found. Sugar intake was higher in CD and UC patients from Eastern Europe than in Western Europe while fibre intake was lower (p < 0.01). Daily consumption of fast food as well as appendectomy before the age of 20 was more frequent in Eastern European than in Western European UC patients (p < 0.01). Eastern European CD and UC patients had received more vaccinations and experienced fewer childhood infections than Western European patients (p < 0.01).Conclusions: In this European population-based inception cohort of unselected IBD patients, Eastern and Western European patients differed in environmental factors prior to diagnosis. Eastern European patients exhibited higher occurrences of suspected risk factors for IBD included in the Western lifestyle. (C) 2013 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 22. |
- Burisch, J., et al.
(författare)
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Health care and patients' education in a European inflammatory bowel disease inception cohort : an ECCO-EpiCom study
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Crohn's & Colitis. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1873-9946 .- 1876-4479. ; 8:8, s. 811-818
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Aims: The EpiCom study and inception cohort was initiated in 2010 in 31 centers from 14 Western and 8 Eastern European countries, covering a 10.1 million person background population. Our aim was to investigate whether there is a difference between Eastern and Western Europe in health care and education of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).Methods: A quality of care (QoC) questionnaire was developed in the EpiCom group consisting of 16 questions covering 5 items: time interval between the onset of symptoms and diagnosis, information, education, empathy and access to health care providers.Results: Of 1,515 patients, 947 (217 east/730 west) answered the QoC questionnaire. Only 23% of all patients had knowledge about IBD before diagnosis. In Eastern Europe, significantly more patients searched out information about IBD themselves (77% vs. 68%, p < 0.05), the main source was the Internet (92% vs. 88% p = 0.23). In Western Europe, significantly more patients were educated by nurses (19% vs. 1%, p < 0.05), while in Eastern Europe, gastroenterologists were easier to contact (80% vs. 68%, p < 0.05).Conclusion: Health care differed significantly between Eastern and Western Europe in all items, but satisfaction rates were high in both geographic regions. Because of the low awareness and the rising incidence of IBD, general information should be the focus of patient organizations and medical societies. In Western Europe IBD nurses play a very important role in reducing the burden of patient management. (c) 2014 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 23. |
- Burisch, J., et al.
(författare)
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Health-related quality of life improves during one year of medical and surgical treatment in a European population-based inception cohort of patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease : An ECCO-EpiCom study
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Crohn's & Colitis. - Oxford, United Kingdom : Oxford University Press. - 1873-9946 .- 1876-4479. ; 8:9, s. 1030-1042
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background & Aims: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is impaired in patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). The aim was prospectively to assess and validate the pattern of HRQoL in an unselected, population-based inception cohort of IBD patients from Eastern and Western Europe.Methods: The EpiCom inception cohort consists of 1560 IBD patients from 31 European centres covering a background population of approximately 10.1 million. Patients answered the disease specific Short Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (SIBDQ) and generic Short Form 12 (SF-12) questionnaire at diagnosis and after one year of follow-up.Results: In total, 1079 patients were included in this study. Crohn's disease (CD) patients mean SIBDQ scores improved from 45.3 to 55.3 in Eastern Europe and from 44.9 to 53.6 in Western Europe. SIBDQ scores for ulcerative colitis (UC) patients improved from 44.9 to 57.4 and from 48.8 to 55.7, respectively. UC patients needing surgery or biologicals had lower SIBDQ scores before and after compared to the rest, while biological therapy improved SIBDQ scores in CD. CD and UC patients in both regions improved all SF-12 scores. Only Eastern European UC patients achieved SF-12 summary scores equal to or above the normal population.Conclusion: Medical and surgical treatment improved HRQoL during the first year of disease. The majority of IBD patients in both Eastern and Western Europe reported a positive perception of disease-specific but not generic HRQoL. Biological therapy improved HRQoL in CD patients, while UC patients in need of surgery or biological therapy experienced lower perceptions of HRQoL than the rest.
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