| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 3. |
- Maes, S.L., et al.
(författare)
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Environmental drivers of increased ecosystem respiration in a warming tundra
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 629:8010, s. 105-113
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.
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| 4. |
- van Cappellen, W., et al.
(författare)
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Apertif: Phased array feeds for the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope: System overview and performance characteristics
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe the APERture Tile In Focus (Apertif) system, a phased array feed (PAF) upgrade of the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope that transforms this telescope into a high-sensitivity, wide-field-of-view L-band imaging and transient survey instrument. Using novel PAF technology, up to 40 partially overlapping beams are formed on the sky simultaneously, significantly increasing the survey speed of the telescope. With this upgraded instrument, an imaging survey covering an area of 2300 deg2 is being performed that will deliver both continuum and spectral line datasets, of which the first data have been publicly released. In addition, a time domain transient and pulsar survey covering 15 000 deg2 is in progress. An overview of the Apertif science drivers, hardware, and software of the upgraded telescope is presented, along with its key performance characteristics.
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| 5. |
- Natali, S. M., et al.
(författare)
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Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 9:11, s. 852-857
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter(1-3), greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)(4). However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates(5,6). Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October-April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.
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| 6. |
- Davies, G., et al.
(författare)
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Genetic contributions to variation in general cognitive function : a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in the CHARGE consortium (N=53 949)
- 2015
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Ingår i: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 20:2, s. 183-192
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- General cognitive function is substantially heritable across the human life course from adolescence to old age. We investigated the genetic contribution to variation in this important, health-and well-being-related trait in middle-aged and older adults. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of 31 cohorts (N = 53 949) in which the participants had undertaken multiple, diverse cognitive tests. A general cognitive function phenotype was tested for, and created in each cohort by principal component analysis. We report 13 genome-wide significant single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations in three genomic regions, 6q16.1, 14q12 and 19q13.32 (best SNP and closest gene, respectively: rs10457441, P = 3.93 x 10(-9), MIR2113; rs17522122, P = 2.55 x 10(-8), AKAP6; rs10119, P = 5.67 x 10(-9), APOE/TOMM40). We report one gene-based significant association with the HMGN1 gene located on chromosome 21 (P = 1x10(-6)). These genes have previously been associated with neuropsychiatric phenotypes. Meta-analysis results are consistent with a polygenic model of inheritance. To estimate SNP-based heritability, the genome-wide complex trait analysis procedure was applied to two large cohorts, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (N = 6617) and the Health and Retirement Study (N = 5976). The proportion of phenotypic variation accounted for by all genotyped common SNPs was 29% (s.e. = 5%) and 28% (s.e. = 7%), respectively. Using polygenic prediction analysis, similar to 1.2% of the variance in general cognitive function was predicted in the Generation Scotland cohort (N = 5487; P = 1.5 x 10(-17)). In hypothesis-driven tests, there was significant association between general cognitive function and four genes previously associated with Alzheimer's disease: TOMM40, APOE, ABCG1 and MEF2C.
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| 7. |
- Adams, E. A. K., et al.
(författare)
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First release of Apertif imaging survey data
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 667
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Apertif is a phased-array feed system for the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope, providing forty instantaneous beams over 300 MHz of bandwidth. A dedicated survey program utilizing this upgrade started on 1 July 2019, with the last observations taken on 28 February 2022. The imaging survey component provides radio continuum, polarization, and spectral line data. Aims. Public release of data is critical for maximizing the legacy of a survey. Toward that end, we describe the release of data products from the first year of survey operations, through 30 June 2020. In particular, we focus on defining quality control metrics for the processed data products. Methods. The Apertif imaging pipeline, Apercal, automatically produces non-primary beam corrected continuum images, polarization images and cubes, and uncleaned spectral line and dirty beam cubes for each beam of an Apertif imaging observation. For this release, processed data products are considered on a beam-by-beam basis within an observation. We validate the continuum images by using metrics that identify deviations from Gaussian noise in the residual images. If the continuum image passes validation, we release all processed data products for a given beam. We apply further validation to the polarization and line data products and provide flags indicating the quality of those data products. Results. We release all raw observational data from the first year of survey observations, for a total of 221 observations of 160 independent target fields, covering approximately one thousand square degrees of sky. Images and cubes are released on a per beam basis, and 3374 beams (of 7640 considered) are released. The median noise in the continuum images is 41.4 uJy beam(-1), with a slightly lower median noise of 36.9 uJy beam(-1) in the Stokes V polarization image. The median angular resolution is 11.6 ''/sin delta. The median noise for all line cubes, with a spectral resolution of 36.6 kHz, is 1.6 mJy beam(-1), corresponding to a 3-sigma H i column density sensitivity of 1.8 x 10(20) atoms cm(-2) over 20 km s(-1) (for a median angular resolution of 24 '' x 15 ''). Line cubes at lower frequency have slightly higher noise values, consistent with the global RFI environment and overall Apertif system performance. We also provide primary beam images for each individual Apertif compound beam. The data are made accessible using a Virtual Observatory interface and can be queried using a variety of standard tools.
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| 8. |
- Pihl, E., et al.
(författare)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press. - 2059-4798.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
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| 9. |
- Oostrum, L. C., et al.
(författare)
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Repeating fast radio bursts with WSRT/Apertif
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 635
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Repeating fast radio bursts (FRBs) present excellent opportunities to identify FRB progenitors and host environments as well as to decipher the underlying emission mechanism. Detailed studies of repeating FRBs might also hold clues as to the origin of FRBs as a population. Aims. We aim to detect bursts from the first two repeating FRBs, FRB 121102 (R1) and FRB 180814.J0422+73 (R2), and to characterise their repeat statistics. We also want to significantly improve the sky localisation of R2 and identify its host galaxy. Methods. We used the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope to conduct extensive follow-up of these two repeating FRBs. The new phased-array feed system, Apertif, allows one to cover the entire sky position uncertainty of R2 with fine spatial resolution in a single pointing. The data were searched for bursts around the known dispersion measures of the two sources. We characterise the energy distribution and the clustering of detected R1 bursts. Results. We detected 30 bursts from R1. The non-Poissonian nature is clearly evident from the burst arrival times, which is consistent with earlier claims. Our measurements indicate a dispersion measure (DM) of 563.5(2) pc cm(-3), suggesting a significant increase in DM over the past few years. Assuming a constant position angle across the burst, we place an upper limit of 8% on the linear polarisation fraction for the brightest burst in our sample. We did not detect any bursts from R2. Conclusions. A single power-law might not fit the R1 burst energy distribution across the full energy range or widely separated detections. Our observations provide improved constraints on the clustering of R1 bursts. Our stringent upper limits on the linear polarisation fraction imply a significant depolarisation, either intrinsic to the emission mechanism or caused by the intervening medium at 1400 MHz, which is not observed at higher frequencies. The non-detection of any bursts from R2, despite nearly 300 h of observations, implies either a highly clustered nature of the bursts, a steep spectral index, or a combination of the two assuming that the source is still active. Another possibility is that R2 has turned off completely, either permanently or for an extended period of time.
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| 10. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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| 11. |
- Adebahr, B., et al.
(författare)
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Apercal - The Apertif calibration pipeline
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Computing. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-1337. ; 38
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Apertif (APERture Tile In Focus) is one of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) pathfinder facilities. The Apertif project is an upgrade to the 50-year-old Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) using phased-array feed technology. The new receivers create 40 individual beams on the sky, achieving an instantaneous sky coverage of 6.5 square degrees. The primary goal of the Apertif Imaging Survey is to perform a wide survey of 3500 square degrees (AWES) and a medium deep survey of 350 square degrees (AMES) of neutral atomic hydrogen (up to a redshift of 0.26), radio continuum emission and polarisation. Each survey pointing yields 4.6 TB of correlated data. The goal of Apercal is to process this data and fully automatically generate science ready data products for the astronomical community while keeping up with the survey observations. We make use of common astronomical software packages in combination with Python based routines and parallelisation. We use an object oriented module-based approach to ensure easy adaptation of the pipeline. A Jupyter notebook based framework allows user interaction and execution of individual modules as well as a full automatic processing of a complete survey observation. If nothing interrupts processing, we are able to reduce a single pointing survey observation on our five node cluster with 24 physical cores and 256 GB of memory each within 24 h keeping up with the speed of the surveys. The quality of the generated images is sufficient for scientific usage for 44% of the recorded data products with single images reaching dynamic ranges of several thousands. Future improvements will increase this percentage to over 80%. Our design allowed development of the pipeline in parallel to the commissioning of the Apertif system.
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| 12. |
- Boersma, O. M., et al.
(författare)
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A search for radio emission from double-neutron star merger GW190425 using Apertif
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 650
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context Detection of the electromagnetic emission from coalescing binary neutron stars (BNS) is important for understanding the merger and afterglow. Aims. We present a search for a radio counterpart to the gravitational-wave (GW) source GW190425, a BNS merger, using Apertif on the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT). Methods We observed a field of high probability in the associated localisation region for three epochs at ΔTâ€., =â€., 68, 90, 109 d post merger. We identified all sources that exhibit flux variations consistent with the expected afterglow emission of GW190425. We also looked for possible transients. These are sources that are only present in one epoch. In addition, we quantified our ability to search for radio afterglows in the fourth and future observing runs of the GW detector network using Monte Carlo simulations. Results We found 25 afterglow candidates based on their variability. None of these could be associated with a possible host galaxy at the luminosity distance of GW190425. We also found 55 transient afterglow candidates that were only detected in one epoch. All of these candidates turned out to be image artefacts. In the fourth observing run, we predict that up to three afterglows will be detectable by Apertif. Conclusions While we did not find a source related to the afterglow emission of GW190425, the search validates our methods for future searches of radio afterglows.
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| 13. |
- Denes, H., et al.
(författare)
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Characterising the Apertif primary beam response
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 667
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Phased array feeds (PAFs) are multi-element receivers in the focal plane of a telescope that make it possible to simultaneously form multiple beams on the sky by combining the complex gains of the individual antenna elements. Recently, the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) was upgraded with PAF receivers to carry out several observing programs, including two imaging surveys and a time-domain survey. The Apertif imaging surveys use a configuration of 40 partially overlapping compound beams (CBs) simultaneously formed on the sky and arranged in an approximately rectangular shape. Aims. This work is aimed at characterising the response of the 40 Apertif CBs to create frequency-resolved I, XX, and YY polarization empirical beam shapes. The measured CB maps can be used for the image deconvolution, primary beam correction, and mosaicking processes of Apertif imaging data. Methods. We used drift scan measurements to measure the response of each of the 40 Apertif CBs. We derived beam maps for all individual beams in I, XX, and YY polarisation in 10 or 18 frequency bins over the same bandwidth as the Apertif imaging surveys. We sampled the main lobe of the beams and the side lobes up to a radius of 0.6 degrees from the beam centres. In addition, we derived beam maps for each individual WSRT dish. Results. We present the frequency and time dependence of the beam shapes and sizes. We compared the compound beam shapes derived with the drift scan method to beam shapes derived with an independent method using a Gaussian Process Regression comparison between the Apertif continuum images and the NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS) catalogue. We find a good agreement between the beam shapes derived with the two independent methods.
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| 14. |
- Prevey, J., et al.
(författare)
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Greater temperature sensitivity of plant phenology at colder sites: implications for convergence across northern latitudes
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 23:7, s. 2660-2671
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance at colder sites. To test this hypothesis, we examined up to 20 years of phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high-latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high-latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms.
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| 15. |
- Schuur, E. A. G., et al.
(författare)
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Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 119:2, s. 359-374
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.
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| 16. |
- Collins, C. G., et al.
(författare)
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Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra. It is unclear whether climate driven phenological shifts of tundra plants are consistent across the plant growing season. Here the authors analyse data from a network of field warming experiments in Arctic and alpine tundra, finding that warming differentially affects the timing and duration of reproductive and vegetative phenology.
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| 17. |
- Prevey, J. S., et al.
(författare)
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Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 3:1, s. 45-52
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.
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| 18. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
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We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Environmental Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-665X. ; 10
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO2, the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.
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| 19. |
- Koven, C. D., et al.
(författare)
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A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback
- 2015
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Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions. Series A. - : The Royal Society. - 1364-503X .- 1471-2962. ; 373:2054
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (gamma sensitivity) of -14 to -19 PgC degrees C-1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.
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| 20. |
- Pastor-Marazuela, Ines, et al.
(författare)
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Chromatic periodic activity down to 120 megahertz in a fast radio burst
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 596:7873, s. 505-508
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are extragalactic astrophysical transients(1) whose brightness requires emitters that are highly energetic yet compact enough to produce the short, millisecond-duration bursts. FRBs have thus far been detected at frequencies from 8 gigahertz (ref. (2)) down to 300 megahertz (ref. (3)), but lower-frequency emission has remained elusive. Some FRBs repeat(4-6), and one of the most frequently detected, FRB 20180916B(7), has a periodicity cycle of 16.35 days (ref. (8)). Using simultaneous radio data spanning a wide range of wavelengths (a factor of more than 10), here we show that FRB 20180916B emits down to 120 megahertz, and that its activity window is frequency dependent (that is, chromatic). The window is both narrower and earlier at higher frequencies. Binary wind interaction models predict a wider window at higher frequencies, the opposite of our observations. Our full-cycle coverage shows that the 16.3-day periodicity is not aliased. We establish that low-frequency FRB emission can escape the local medium. For bursts of the same fluence, FRB 20180916B is more active below 200 megahertz than at 1.4 gigahertz. Combining our results with previous upper limits on the all-sky FRB rate at 150 megahertz, we find there are 3-450 FRBs in the sky per day above 50 Jy ms. Our chromatic results strongly disfavour scenarios in which absorption from strong stellar winds causes FRB periodicity. We demonstrate that some FRBs are found in 'clean' environments that do not absorb or scatter low-frequency radiation. The fast radio burst FRB 20180916B repeats with a periodicity of 16 days, and is now found to emit down to a frequency of 120 MHz, much lower than previously observed.
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| 21. |
- Prevéy, Janet S., et al.
(författare)
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The tundra phenology database: more than two decades of tundra phenology responses to climate change
- 2022
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Ingår i: Arctic Science. - : Canadian Science Publishing. - 2368-7460. ; 8:3, s. 1026-1039
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collec-tion of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150 434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1–26 years. Here we describe the full data set to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some data sets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue (https://doi.org/10.21963/13215).
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| 22. |
- Schuur, E. A. G., et al.
(författare)
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Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 520:7546, s. 171-179
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Awarming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.
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| 23. |
- Bi, Shanshan, et al.
(författare)
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Perceived Social Support from Different Sources and Adolescent Life Satisfaction Across 42 Countries/Regions : The Moderating Role of National-Level Generalized Trust
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Youth and Adolescence. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0047-2891 .- 1573-6601. ; 50:7, s. 1384-1409
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although previous research established a positive association between perceived social support and adolescent life satisfaction, little is known about the relative importance of different sources of support for adolescent life satisfaction and cross-country variations in this respect. Using large-scale representative samples from the 2017/18 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study, this study examined to what extent the association between social support and life satisfaction in early adolescence varied across different social sources and countries. Also, it examined whether cross-country variations are explained by national-level generalized trust, a sociocultural factor that shapes adolescent socialization. National-level data were linked to data from 183,918 early adolescents (M-age = 13.56, SD = 1.63, 52% girls) from 42 European and North American countries/regions obtained from HBSC. Multilevel regression analyses yielded a positive association between support from different sources and life satisfaction. The strongest associations were found for support from families, followed by teachers and classmates, and weakest for support from friends. Associations varied across different countries/regions. National-level trust amplified the association between perceived classmate support and adolescent life satisfaction. The revealed cross-country differences open avenues for future cross-cultural research on explanations for cross-cultural differences in the association between social support from different sources and life satisfaction in early adolescence.
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
- Mishra, U., et al.
(författare)
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Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions : a review of recent progress and remaining challenges
- 2013
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 8:3, s. 035020-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges.
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