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Sökning: WFRF:(Smithers B.)

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1.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • A Search for IceCube Sub-TeV Neutrinos Correlated with Gravitational-wave Events Detected By LIGO/Virgo
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 959:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The LIGO/Virgo collaboration published the catalogs GWTC-1, GWTC-2.1, and GWTC-3 containing candidate gravitational-wave (GW) events detected during its runs O1, O2, and O3. These GW events can be possible sites of neutrino emission. In this paper, we present a search for neutrino counterparts of 90 GW candidates using IceCube DeepCore, the low-energy infill array of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The search is conducted using an unbinned maximum likelihood method, within a time window of 1000 s, and uses the spatial and timing information from the GW events. The neutrinos used for the search have energies ranging from a few GeV to several tens of TeV. We do not find any significant emission of neutrinos, and place upper limits on the flux and the isotropic-equivalent energy emitted in low-energy neutrinos. We also conduct a binomial test to search for source populations potentially contributing to neutrino emission. We report a nondetection of a significant neutrino-source population with this test.
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2.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • IceCat-1: The IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal, Supplement Series. - : IOP Publishing Ltd. - 1538-4365 .- 0067-0049. ; 269:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a catalog of likely astrophysical neutrino track-like events from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. IceCube began reporting likely astrophysical neutrinos in 2016, and this system was updated in 2019. The catalog presented here includes events that were reported in real time since 2019, as well as events identified in archival data samples starting from 2011. We report 275 neutrino events from two selection channels as the first entries in the catalog, the IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks, which will see ongoing extensions with additional alerts. The Gold and Bronze alert channels respectively provide neutrino candidates with a 50% and 30% probability of being astrophysical, on average assuming an astrophysical neutrino power-law energy spectral index of 2.19. For each neutrino alert, we provide the reconstructed energy, direction, false-alarm rate, probability of being astrophysical in origin, and likelihood contours describing the spatial uncertainty in the alert's reconstructed location. We also investigate a directional correlation of these neutrino events with gamma-ray and X-ray catalogs, including 4FGL, 3HWC, TeVCat, and Swift-BAT.
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3.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • Limits on Neutrino Emission from GRB 221009A from MeV to PeV Using the IceCube Neutrino Observatory
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 946:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have long been considered a possible source of high-energy neutrinos. While no correlations have yet been detected between high-energy neutrinos and GRBs, the recent observation of GRB 221009A-the brightest GRB observed by Fermi-GBM to date and the first one to be observed above an energy of 10 TeV-provides a unique opportunity to test for hadronic emission. In this paper, we leverage the wide energy range of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory to search for neutrinos from GRB 221009A. We find no significant deviation from background expectation across event samples ranging from MeV to PeV energies, placing stringent upper limits on the neutrino emission from this source.
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4.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • Measurement of atmospheric neutrino mixing with improved IceCube DeepCore calibration and data processing
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 108:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We describe a new data sample of IceCube DeepCore and report on the latest measurement of atmospheric neutrino oscillations obtained with data recorded between 2011-2019. The sample includes significant improvements in data calibration, detector simulation, and data processing, and the analysis benefits from a sophisticated treatment of systematic uncertainties, with significantly greater level of detail since our last study. By measuring the relative fluxes of neutrino flavors as a function of their reconstructed energies and arrival directions we constrain the atmospheric neutrino mixing parameters to be sin2θ23=0.51±0.05 and Δm322=2.41±0.07×10-3 eV2, assuming a normal mass ordering. The errors include both statistical and systematic uncertainties. The resulting 40% reduction in the error of both parameters with respect to our previous result makes this the most precise measurement of oscillation parameters using atmospheric neutrinos. Our results are also compatible and complementary to those obtained using neutrino beams from accelerators, which are obtained at lower neutrino energies and are subject to different sources of uncertainties.
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5.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • Observation of seasonal variations of the flux of high-energy atmospheric neutrinos with IceCube
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 83:9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Atmospheric muon neutrinos are produced by meson decays in cosmic-ray-induced air showers. The flux depends on meteorological quantities such as the air temperature, which affects the density of air. Competition between decay and re-interaction of those mesons in the first particle production generations gives rise to a higher neutrino flux when the air density in the stratosphere is lower, corresponding to a higher temperature. A measurement of a temperature dependence of the atmospheric νμ flux provides a novel method for constraining hadronic interaction models of air showers. It is particularly sensitive to the production of kaons. Studying this temperature dependence for the first time requires a large sample of high-energy neutrinos as well as a detailed understanding of atmospheric properties. We report the significant (>10σ) observation of a correlation between the rate of more than 260,000 neutrinos, detected by IceCube between 2012 and 2018, and atmospheric temperatures of the stratosphere, measured by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard NASA’s AQUA satellite. For the observed 10 % seasonal change of effective atmospheric temperature we measure a 3.5(3) % change in the muon neutrino flux. This observed correlation deviates by about 2-3 standard deviations from the expected correlation of 4.3 % as obtained from theoretical predictions under the assumption of various hadronic interaction models.
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6.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • Search for neutrino lines from dark matter annihilation and decay with IceCube
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : American Physical Society. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 108:10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Dark matter particles in the Galactic Center and halo can annihilate or decay into a pair of neutrinos producing a monochromatic flux of neutrinos. The spectral feature of this signal is unique and it is not expected from any astrophysical production mechanism. Its observation would constitute a dark matter smoking gun signal. We performed the first dedicated search with a neutrino telescope for such signal, by looking at both the angular and energy information of the neutrino events. To this end, a total of five years of IceCube's DeepCore data has been used to test dark matter masses ranging from 10 GeV to 40 TeV. No significant neutrino excess was found and upper limits on the annihilation cross section, as well as lower limits on the dark matter lifetime, were set. The limits reached are of the order of 10-24 cm3/s for an annihilation and up to 1027 s for decaying dark matter. Using the same data sample we also derive limits for dark matter annihilation or decay into a pair of Standard Model charged particles.
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7.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • Search for Galactic Core-collapse Supernovae in a Decade of Data Taken with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 961:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The IceCube Neutrino Observatory has been continuously taking data to search for O(0.5–10) s long neutrino bursts since 2007. Even if a Galactic core-collapse supernova is optically obscured or collapses to a black hole instead of exploding, it will be detectable via the O(10) MeV neutrino burst emitted during the collapse. We discuss a search for such events covering the time between 2008 April 17 and 2019 December 31. Considering the average data taking and analysis uptime of 91.7% after all selection cuts, this is equivalent to 10.735 yr of continuous data taking. In order to test the most conservative neutrino production scenario, the selection cuts were optimized for a model based on an 8.8 solar mass progenitor collapsing to an O–Ne–Mg core. Conservative assumptions on the effects of neutrino oscillations in the exploding star were made. The final selection cut was set to ensure that the probability to detect such a supernova within the Milky Way exceeds 99%. No such neutrino burst was found in the data after performing a blind analysis. Hence, a 90% C.L. upper limit on the rate of core-collapse supernovae out to distances of ≈25 kpc was determined to be 0.23 yr−1. For the more distant Magellanic Clouds, only high neutrino luminosity supernovae will be detectable by IceCube, unless external information on the burst time is available. We determined a model-independent limit by parameterizing the dependence on the neutrino luminosity and the energy spectrum.
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8.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • Citizen science for IceCube: Name that Neutrino
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: European Physical Journal Plus. - 2190-5444. ; 139:6
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Name that Neutrino is a citizen science project where volunteers aid in classification of events for the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, an immense particle detector at the geographic South Pole. From March 2023 to September 2023, volunteers did classifications of videos produced from simulated data of both neutrino signal and background interactions. Name that Neutrino obtained more than 128,000 classifications by over 1800 registered volunteers that were compared to results obtained by a deep neural network machine-learning algorithm. Possible improvements for both Name that Neutrino and the deep neural network are discussed.
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9.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • Search for 10-1000 GeV Neutrinos from Gamma-Ray Bursts with IceCube
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 964:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present the results of a search for 10-1000 GeV neutrinos from 2268 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) over 8 yr of IceCube-DeepCore data. This work probes burst physics below the photosphere where electromagnetic radiation cannot escape. Neutrinos of tens of giga electronvolts are predicted in sub-photospheric collision of free-streaming neutrons with bulk-jet protons. In a first analysis, we searched for the most significant neutrino-GRB coincidence using six overlapping time windows centered on the prompt phase of each GRB. In a second analysis, we conducted a search for a group of GRBs, each individually too weak to be detectable, but potentially significant when combined. No evidence of neutrino emission is found for either analysis. The most significant neutrino coincidence is for Fermi-GBM GRB bn 140807500, with a p-value of 0.097 corrected for all trials. The binomial test used to search for a group of GRBs had a p-value of 0.65 after all trial corrections. The binomial test found a group consisting only of GRB bn 140807500 and no additional GRBs. The neutrino limits of this work complement those obtained by IceCube at tera electronvolt to peta electronvolt energies. We compare our findings for the large set of GRBs as well as GRB 221009A to the sub-photospheric neutron-proton collision model and find that GRB 221009A provides the most constraining limit on baryon loading. For a jet Lorentz factor of 300 (800), the baryon loading on GRB 221009A is lower than 3.85 (2.13) at a 90% confidence level.
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10.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • Search for Continuous and Transient Neutrino Emission Associated with IceCube's Highest-energy Tracks: An 11 yr Analysis
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 964:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IceCube alert events are neutrinos with a moderate-to-high probability of having astrophysical origin. In this study, we analyze 11 yr of IceCube data and investigate 122 alert events and a selection of high-energy tracks detected between 2009 and the end of 2021. This high-energy event selection (alert events + high-energy tracks) has an average probability of >= 0.5 of being of astrophysical origin. We search for additional continuous and transient neutrino emission within the high-energy events' error regions. We find no evidence for significant continuous neutrino emission from any of the alert event directions. The only locally significant neutrino emission is the transient emission associated with the blazar TXS 0506+056, with a local significance of 3 sigma, which confirms previous IceCube studies. When correcting for 122 test positions, the global p-value is 0.156 and compatible with the background hypothesis. We constrain the total continuous flux emitted from all 122 test positions at 100 TeV to be below 1.2 x 10-15 (TeV cm2 s)-1 at 90% confidence assuming an E -2 spectrum. This corresponds to 4.5% of IceCube's astrophysical diffuse flux. Overall, we find no indication that alert events in general are linked to lower-energetic continuous or transient neutrino emission.
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11.
  • Abbasi, R., et al. (författare)
  • Search for decoherence from quantum gravity with atmospheric neutrinos
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Nature Physics. - 1745-2481 .- 1745-2473. ; 20:6, s. 913-920
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Neutrino oscillations at the highest energies and longest baselines can be used to study the structure of spacetime and test the fundamental principles of quantum mechanics. If the metric of spacetime has a quantum mechanical description, its fluctuations at the Planck scale are expected to introduce non-unitary effects that are inconsistent with the standard unitary time evolution of quantum mechanics. Neutrinos interacting with such fluctuations would lose their quantum coherence, deviating from the expected oscillatory flavour composition at long distances and high energies. Here we use atmospheric neutrinos detected by the IceCube South Pole Neutrino Observatory in the energy range of 0.5-10.0 TeV to search for coherence loss in neutrino propagation. We find no evidence of anomalous neutrino decoherence and determine limits on neutrino-quantum gravity interactions. The constraint on the effective decoherence strength parameter within an energy-independent decoherence model improves on previous limits by a factor of 30. For decoherence effects scaling as E2, our limits are advanced by more than six orders of magnitude beyond past measurements compared with the state of the art. Interactions of atmospheric neutrinos with quantum-gravity-induced fluctuations of the metric of spacetime would lead to decoherence. The IceCube Collaboration constrains such interactions with atmospheric neutrinos.
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12.
  • Faries, B., et al. (författare)
  • Completion dissection or observation for sentinel-node metastasis in melanoma
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793. ; 376:23, s. 2211-2222
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND Sentinel-lymph-node biopsy is associated with increased melanoma-specific survival (i.e., survival until death from melanoma) among patients with node-positive intermediatethickness melanomas (1.2 to 3.5 mm). The value of completion lymph-node dissection for patients with sentinel-node metastases is not clear. METHODS In an international trial, we randomly assigned patients with sentinel-node metastases detected by means of standard pathological assessment or a multimarker molecular assay to immediate completion lymph-node dissection (dissection group) or nodal observation with ultrasonography (observation group). The primary end point was melanoma-specific survival. Secondary end points included disease-free survival and the cumulative rate of nonsentinel-node metastasis. RESULTS Immediate completion lymph-node dissection was not associated with increased melanomaspecific survival among 1934 patients with data that could be evaluated in an intention-Totreat analysis or among 1755 patients in the per-protocol analysis. In the per-protocol analysis, the mean (-SE) 3-year rate of melanoma-specific survival was similar in the dissection group and the observation group (86-1.3% and 86-1.2%, respectively; P = 0.42 by the logrank test) at a median follow-up of 43 months. The rate of disease-free survival was slightly higher in the dissection group than in the observation group (68-1.7% and 63-1.7%, respectively; P = 0.05 by the log-rank test) at 3 years, based on an increased rate of disease control in the regional nodes at 3 years (92-1.0% vs. 77-1.5%; P<0.001 by the log-rank test); these results must be interpreted with caution. Nonsentinel-node metastases, identified in 11.5% of the patients in the dissection group, were a strong, independent prognostic factor for recurrence (hazard ratio, 1.78; P = 0.005). Lymphedema was observed in 24.1% of the patients in the dissection group and in 6.3% of those in the observation group. CONCLUSIONS Immediate completion lymph-node dissection increased the rate of regional disease control and provided prognostic information but did not increase melanoma-specific survival among patients with melanoma and sentinel-node metastases.
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  • Veenstra, M M K, et al. (författare)
  • Complications and survival after hybrid and fully minimally invasive oesophagectomy
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: BJS Open. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2474-9842. ; 5:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Minimally invasive oesophagectomy (MIO) is reported to produce fewer respiratory complications than open oesophagectomy. This study assessed differences in postoperative complications between MIO and hybrid MIO (HMIO) employing thoracoscopy and laparotomy, along with the influence of co-morbidities on postoperative outcomes.METHODS: Patients with oesophageal cancer undergoing three-stage MIO or three-stage HMIO between 1999 and 2018 were identified from a prospectively developed database, which included patient demographics, co-morbidities, preoperative therapies, and cancer stage. The primary outcome was postoperative complications in the two groups. Secondary outcomes included duration of operation, blood transfusion requirement, duration of hospital stay, and overall survival.RESULTS: There were 828 patients, of whom 722 had HMIO and 106 MIO, without significant baseline differences. Median duration of operation was longer for MIO (325 versus 289 min; P < 0.001), but with less blood loss (median 250 versus 300 ml; P < 0.001) and a shorter hospital stay (median 12 versus 13 days; P = 0.006). Respiratory complications were not associated with operative approach (31.1 versus 35.2 per cent for MIO and HMIO respectively; P = 0.426). Anastomotic leak rates (10.4 versus 10.2 per cent) and 90-day mortality (1.0 versus 1.7 per cent) did not differ. Cardiac co-morbidity was associated with more medical and surgical complications. Overall survival was associated with AJCC stage and co-morbidities, but not operative approach.CONCLUSION: MIO had a small benefit in terms of blood loss and hospital stay, but not in operating time. Oncological outcomes were similar in the two groups. Postoperative complications were associated with pre-existing cardiorespiratory co-morbidities rather than operative approach.
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16.
  • Chidambaram, Swathikan, et al. (författare)
  • Identifying a core symptom set triggering radiological and endoscopic investigations for suspected recurrent esophago-gastric cancer : a modified Delphi consensus process
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Diseases of the esophagus. - : Oxford University Press. - 1120-8694 .- 1442-2050. ; 36:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: There is currently a lack of evidence-based guidelines regarding surveillance for recurrence after esophageal and gastric (OG) cancer surgical resection, and which symptoms should prompt endoscopic or radiological investigations for recurrence. The aim of this study was to develop a core symptom set using a modified Delphi consensus process that should guide clinicians to carry out investigations to look for suspected recurrent OG cancer in previously asymptomatic patients.METHODS: A web-based survey of 42 questions was sent to surgeons performing OG cancer resections at high volume centers. The first section evaluated the structure of follow-up and the second, determinants of follow-up. Two rounds of a modified Delphi consensus process and a further consensus workshop were used to determine symptoms warranting further investigations. Symptoms with a 75% consensus agreement as suggestive of recurrent cancer were included in the core symptom set.RESULTS: 27 surgeons completed the questionnaires. A total of 70.3% of centers reported standardized surveillance protocols, whereas 3.7% of surgeons did not undertake any surveillance in asymptomatic patients after OG cancer resection. In asymptomatic patients, 40.1% and 25.9% of centers performed routine imaging and endoscopy, respectively. The core set that reached consensus, consisted of eight symptoms that warranted further investigations included; dysphagia to solid food, dysphagia to liquids, vomiting, abdominal pain, chest pain, regurgitation of foods, unexpected weight loss and progressive hoarseness of voice.CONCLUSION: There is global variation in monitoring patients after OG cancer resection. Eight symptoms were identified by the consensus process as important in prompting radiological or endoscopic investigation for suspected recurrent malignancy. Further randomized controlled trials are necessary to link surveillance strategies to survival outcomes and evaluate prognostic value.
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17.
  • Claeson, Magdalena, 1976, et al. (författare)
  • Clinicopathological factors associated with death from thin (<= 1 center dot 00 mm) melanoma
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: British Journal of Dermatology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0007-0963 .- 1365-2133. ; 182:4, s. 927-931
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Thin cutaneous melanomas (<= 1 center dot 00 mm) are increasing worldwide, causing around a quarter of all melanoma deaths in the U.S.A. and Australia. Identification of predictive factors for potentially fatal thin melanomas could allow better use of resources for follow-up. Objectives To identify the clinicopathological factors associated with fatal thin melanomas. Methods This large, nested case-case study extracted data from the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry, Australia. Our cohort consisted of Queensland residents aged 0-89 years who were diagnosed with a single, locally invasive thin melanoma (<= 1 center dot 00 mm) between 1995 and 2014. Fatal cases (eligible patients who died from melanoma) were individually matched to three nonfatal cases (eligible patients who were not known to have died from melanoma) according to sex, age, year of diagnosis and follow-up interval. Using conditional logistic regression, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) for melanoma-specific death, adjusting for all collected clinicopathological variables. Results In the cohort, 27 660 eligible patients were diagnosed with a single, thin melanoma. The final case-case series included 424 fatal cases and 1189 nonfatal cases. Fatal cases were sixfold as likely to arise on the scalp as on the back [OR 6 center dot 39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2 center dot 57-15 center dot 92] and six times as likely to be of thickness 0 center dot 80-1 center dot 00 mm as of < 0 center dot 30 mm (OR 6 center dot 00, 95% CI 3 center dot 55-10 center dot 17). Conclusions Scalp location is a strong prognostic factor of death from thin melanoma. Further, this study provides support that melanomas with a thickness of 0 center dot 80-1 center dot 00 mm are the more hazardous thin lesions. Patients with these tumour characteristics require specific attention during follow-up. What's already known about this topic? Thin invasive melanomas (<= 1 center dot 00 mm) contribute a substantial proportion of melanoma fatalities, owing to the high volume of disease. There is a need to find prognostic factors that will better identify fatal thin melanomas at the time of diagnosis. What does this study add? In this large population-based study, fatal thin tumours were sixfold as likely to be located on the scalp as on the back. Thin melanomas of 0 center dot 80-1 center dot 00 mm thickness were six times as likely to be associated with death as tumours < 0 center dot 30 mm. Scalp location and increasing thickness are strong predictive factors of fatal thin melanomas, indicating that patients with these tumour characteristics require close follow-up.
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  • Low, Donald E., et al. (författare)
  • Guidelines for Perioperative Care in Esophagectomy : Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS®) Society Recommendations
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: World Journal of Surgery. - : Springer. - 0364-2313 .- 1432-2323. ; 43:2, s. 299-330
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • INTRODUCTION: Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) programs provide a format for multidisciplinary care and has been shown to predictably improve short term outcomes associated with surgical procedures. Esophagectomy has historically been associated with significant levels of morbidity and mortality and as a result routine application and audit of ERAS guidelines specifically designed for esophageal resection has significant potential to improve outcomes associated with this complex procedure.METHODS: A team of international experts in the surgical management of esophageal cancer was assembled and the existing literature was identified and reviewed prior to the production of the guidelines. Well established procedure specific components of ERAS were reviewed and updated with changes relevant to esophagectomy. Procedure specific, operative and technical sections were produced utilizing the best current level of evidence. All sections were rated regarding the level of evidence and overall recommendation according to the evaluation (GRADE) system.RESULTS: Thirty-nine sections were ultimately produced and assessed for quality of evidence and recommendations. Some sections were completely new to ERAS programs due to the fact that esophagectomy is the first guideline with a thoracic component to the procedure.CONCLUSIONS: The current ERAS society guidelines should be reviewed and applied in all centers looking to improve outcomes and quality associated with esophageal resection.
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24.
  • Phillimore, Albert B., et al. (författare)
  • Dissecting the contributions of plasticity and local adaptation to the phenology of a butterfly and its host plants
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: American Naturalist. - : University of Chicago Press. - 0003-0147 .- 1537-5323. ; 180:5, s. 655-670
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Phenology affects the abiotic and biotic conditions that an organism encounters and, consequently, its fitness. For populations of high-latitude species, spring phenology often occurs earlier in warmer years and regions. Here we apply a novel approach, a comparison of slope of phenology on temperature over space versus over time, to identify the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial phenological variation in three interacting species, a butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines, and its two host plants, Cardamine pratensis and Alliaria petiolata. All three species overlap in the time window over which mean temperatures best predict variation in phenology, and we find little evidence that a day length requirement causes the sensitive time window to be delayed as latitude increases. The focal species all show pronounced temperature-mediated phenological plasticity of similar magnitude. While we find no evidence for local adaptation in the flowering times of the plants, geographic variation in the phenology of the butterfly is consistent with countergradient local adaptation. The butterfly's phenology appears to be better predicted by temperature than it is by the flowering times of either host plant, and we find no evidence that coevolution has generated geographic variation in adaptive phenological plasticity.
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