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- Emerging Risk Factors, Collaboration, et al.
(författare)
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The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases
- 2007
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Ingår i: Eur J Epidemiol. - 0393-2990. ; 22:12, s. 839-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.
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- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - : Elsevier. - 2213-8587 .- 2213-8595. ; 11:10, s. 731-742
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy. Methods: For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961–2007, median latest follow-up years 1980–2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU. Findings: For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose–response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43–2·97) when diagnosed at 30–39 years, 2·26 (2·08–2·45) at 40–49 years, 1·84 (1·72–1·97) at 50–59 years, 1·57 (1·47–1·67) at 60–69 years, and 1·39 (1·29–1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier. Interpretation: Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3–4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes. Funding: British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.
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- Thelle, Dag, 1942, et al.
(författare)
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Resting heart rate and physical activity as risk factors for lone atrial fibrillation: a prospective study of 309 540 men and women
- 2013
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Ingår i: Heart. - : BMJ. - 1355-6037 .- 1468-201X. ; 99:23, s. 1755-1760
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective To study the impact of resting heart rate and leisure time physical activity at middle age on long term risk of drug treated lone atrial fibrillation (AF). Design Longitudinal cohort study of 309540 Norwegian men and women aged 40-45years examined during 1985-1999 followed from 2005 through 2009. Setting Data from a national health screening programme were linked to the Norwegian Prescription Database (NorPD). Patients The cohort comprised 162078 women and 147462 men; 575 (0.4%) men and 288 women (0.2%) received flecainide and 568 men and 256 women sotalol and were defined as patients with AF. Main outcome measures The outcome was lone fibrillation defined by having at least one prescription of flecainide or sotalol registered in NorPD between 2005 and 2009. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess time to first prescription. Results The risk for being prescribed these drugs increased with decreasing baseline resting heart. Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per 10 beats/min decrease in resting heart rate for flecainide prescription was 1.26 in men (95% CI 1.17 to 1.35) and 1.15 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.27) in women. Similar effects were seen for sotalol in men, but not in women. Men who reported intensive physical activity were more often prescribed flecainide than those in the sedentary group (adjusted HR=3.14, 95% CI 2.17 to 4.54). Conclusions This population based study supports the hypothesis that the risk of drug treated lone AF increases with declining resting heart rate in both sexes, and with increasing levels of self-reported physical activity in men.
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- Tverdal, A., et al.
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Alcohol consumption and incidence of pancreatic cancer
- 2022
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Ingår i: Global Epidemiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-1133. ; 4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: The association between alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer is unsettled. Methods: Altogether 243,169 men and women 20–79 years, without cancer at baseline, were followed with respect to pancreatic cancer by linkage to the Cancer Registry of Norway and the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. They participated in a cardiovascular survey where information on alcohol consumption, smoking habits, anthropometric measures, and some biological variables were recorded. During 20 years of follow-up, 991 incident pancreatic cancers were registered. We estimated the hazard ratios with the Cox proportional hazards model, and graphed spline curves between glass-units/d of alcohol and hazard ratio of incident pancreatic cancer. Results: The multivariable adjusted hazard per 1 glass-unit/d was 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.02–1.15) for men and 1.04 (0.97–1.13) for women. The association between alcohol consumption and incident pancreatic cancer was present in ex- and current smokers, but the association could be ascribed to smoking habits. The multivariable adjusted spline curves increased with increasing glass-units/d and with confidence bands not encompassing 1.0 above one glass-unit/day. Conclusion: Our findings of an association between higher level of alcohol consumption and incident pancreatic cancer, could be attributed to confounding by smoking habits.
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- Tverdal, A., et al.
(författare)
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Coffee and wine consumption is associated with reduced mortality from alcoholic liver disease: follow-up of 219,279 Norwegian men and women aged 30-67 years
- 2018
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Ingår i: Annals of Epidemiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1047-2797. ; 28:11, s. 753-758
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: To study the association between coffee and alcoholic beverage consumption and alcoholic liver disease mortality. Methods: In total, 219,279 men and women aged 30-67 years attended cardiovascular screening in Norway from 1994 to 2003. Linkage to the Cause of Death Registry identified 93 deaths from alcoholic liver disease. Coffee consumption was categorized into four levels: 0, 1-4, 5-8, and greater than or equal to 9 cups/d and alcohol consumption as 0, greater than 0 to less than 1.0, 1.0 to less than 2.0, and greater than or equal to 2.0 units/d, for beer, wine, liquor, and total alcohol consumption. Results: The hazard ratios per one category of consumption were 2.06 (95% confidence interval 1.62-2.61), 0.68 (0.46-1.00), and 2.54 (1.92-3.36) for beer, wine, and liquor, respectively. Stratification at 5 cups/d (the mean) revealed a stronger association between alcohol consumption and alcoholic liver disease at less than 5 versus 5 or more cups/d. With less than 5 cups/d, 0 alcohol units/d as reference, the hazard ratio reached to 25.5 (9.2-70.5) for greater than or equal to 2 units/d, whereas with greater than or equal to 5 cups/d, it reached 5.8 (1.9-17.9) for greater than or equal to 2 units/d. A test for interaction was significant (P = .01). Conclusions: Coffee and wine consumption were inversely associated with alcoholic liver disease death. Total alcohol consumption was adversely associated with alcoholic liver disease mortality and the strength of the association varied with the level of coffee consumption. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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- Tverdal, A., et al.
(författare)
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Coffee consumption and mortality from cardiovascular diseases and total mortality: Does the brewing method matter?
- 2020
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Ingår i: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2047-4873 .- 2047-4881. ; 27:18, s. 1986-1993
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim The aim of this study was to investigate whether the coffee brewing method is associated with any death and cardiovascular mortality, beyond the contribution from major cardiovascular risk factors. Methods and results Altogether, 508,747 men and women aged 20-79 participating in Norwegian cardiovascular surveys were followed for an average of 20 years with respect to cause-specific death. The number of deaths was 46,341 for any cause, 12,621 for cardiovascular disease (CVD), 6202 for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 2894 for stroke. The multivariate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for any death for men with no coffee consumption as reference were 0.85 (082-0.90) for filtered brew, 0.84 (0.79-0.89) for both brews, and 0.96 (0.91-1.01) for unfiltered brew. For women, the corresponding figures were 0.85 (0.81-0.90), 0.79 (0.73-0.85), and 0.91 (0.86-0.96) for filtered, both brews, and unfiltered brew, respectively. For CVD, the figures were 0.88 (0.81-0.96), 0.93 (0.83-1.04), and 0.97 (0.89-1.07) in men, and 0.80 (0.71-0.89), 0.72 (0.61-0.85), and 0.83 (0.74-0.93) in women. Stratification by age raised the HRs for ages >= 60 years. The HR for CVD between unfiltered brew and no coffee was 1.19 (1.00-1.41) for men and 0.98 (0.82-1.15) for women in this age group. The HRs for CVD and IHD were raised when omitting total cholesterol from the model, and most pronounced in those drinking >= 9 of unfiltered coffee, per day where they were raised by 9% for IHD mortality. Conclusion Unfiltered brew was associated with higher mortality than filtered brew, and filtered brew was associated with lower mortality than no coffee consumption.
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- Tverdal, A., et al.
(författare)
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Consumption of alcohol and cardiovascular disease mortality: a 16 year follow-up of 115,592 Norwegian men and women aged 40-44 years
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 32:9, s. 775-783
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We tested whether teetotalism explains the upturn in cardiovascular risk for non-drinkers and whether wine is a more favorable alcohol type. We studied 115,592 men and women aged 40-44 years who participated in the age 40 program in Norway in 1994-1999 and were followed for an average of 16 years with 550 cardiovascular deaths. Self-reported number of glasses of beer, wine and spirits during 14 days was transformed to alcohol units/day. One unit is approximately 8 grams of pure alcohol. The mean and median number of alcohol units/day were 0.70 and 0.46. Teetotallers had higher risk of dying from cardiovascular disease than alcohol consumers, multivariate adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) 1.97 (1.52-2.56). The use of alcohol-related deaths as endpoint substantiated a selection of previous alcohol users to the teetotal group. Without teetotallers there was no association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease mortality. However, the multivariate adjusted hazard ratio per one unit/day of wine was 0.76 (0.58-0.99). The corresponding figures for beer and spirits were 1.04 (0.94-1.15) and 0.98 (0.75-1.29). The upturn in risk for non-drinkers could be explained by a higher risk for teetotallers who likely included previous alcohol users or teetotalers who started to drink during follow-up. Wine gave the most favorable risk estimates.
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- Tverdal, A., et al.
(författare)
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Smoking history and all-cause, ischaemic heart disease and lung cancer mortality: follow-up study of 358 551 men and women aged 40-43 years
- 2023
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Ingår i: Tobacco Control. - 0964-4563.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AimsWe studied the health consequences of quitting smoking before age 43 by time since quitting, number of years smoked and cigarettes smoked per day. The outcomes were all-cause, ischaemic heart disease and lung cancer mortality.DesignProspective study.SettingNorwegian counties.ParticipantsMen and women aged 40-43 years who participated in a national cardiovascular screening programme and who were followed from 1985 to 2018.MeasurementsSelf-reports from questionnaire on time since quitting smoking, years smoked and number of cigarettes per day, and measurements of height, weight and blood pressure, and a blood sample where serum was analysed for total serum cholesterol and triglycerides.FindingsThe all-cause mortality rate was 30% higher among quitters less than 1 year ago compared with never smokers (adjusted HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.18-1.43 in men and HR=1.31, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.50 in women). Quitters who had smoked longer than 20 years had 23% higher mortality in men (HR=1.23, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.34) and 32% higher mortality in women (HR=1.32, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.49). Past smoking of more than 20 cigarettes/day was associated with HR=1.14 (1.05-1.23) in men and HR=1.16 (1.01-1.32) in women. The HR for lung cancer was 6.77 (95% CI 4.86 to 9.45) for quitting men who had smoked for more than 20 years compared with never smokers. The corresponding figure for women was 5.75 (95% CI 4.08 to 8.09).ConclusionsThe mortality among quitters was close to that of never smokers, except for a higher mortality for lung cancer, which on the other hand was much lower than the lung cancer mortality in current smokers.
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