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- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2015
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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- Brignole, Michele, et al.
(författare)
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Low-blood pressure phenotype underpins the tendency to reflex syncope
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Hypertension. - 1473-5598. ; 39:7, s. 1319-1325
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that cardiovascular physiology differs in reflex syncope patients compared with the general population, predisposing such individuals to vasovagal reflex.METHODS: In this multicohort cross-sectional study, we compared aggregate data of resting SBP, DBP, pulse pressure (PP) and heart rate (HR), collected from six community-based cohort studies (64 968 observations) with those from six databases of reflex syncope patients (6516 observations), subdivided by age decades and sex.RESULTS: Overall, in male individuals with reflex syncope, SBP (-3.4 mmHg) and PP (-9.2 mmHg) were lower and DBP (+2.8 mmHg) and HR (+5.1 bpm) were higher than in the general population; the difference in SBP was higher at ages above 60 years. In female individuals, PP (-6.0 mmHg) was lower and DBP (+4.7 mmHg) and HR (+4.5 bpm) were higher than in the general population; differences in SBP were less pronounced, becoming evident only above 60 years. Compared with male individuals, SBP in female individuals exhibited slower increase until age 40 years, and then demonstrated steeper increase that continued throughout remaining life.CONCLUSION: The patients prone to reflex syncope demonstrate a different resting cardiovascular haemodynamic profile as compared with a general population, characterized by lower SBP and PP, reflecting reduced venous return and lower stroke volume, and a higher HR and DBP, suggesting the activation of compensatory mechanisms. Our data contribute to a better understanding why some individuals with similar demographic characteristics develop reflex syncope and others do not.VIDEO ABSTRACT: http://links.lww.com/HJH/B580.
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| 22. |
- Brown, Christopher A., et al.
(författare)
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Multiscale analyses and characterizations of surface topographies
- 2018
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Ingår i: CIRP Annals - Manufacturing Technology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1726-0604 .- 0007-8506. ; 67:2, s. 839-862
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This work studies multiscale analyses and characterizations of surface topographies from the engineering and scientific literature with an emphasis on production engineering research and design. It highlights methods that provide strong correlations between topographies and performance or topographies and processes, and methods that can confidently discriminate topographies that were processed or that perform differently. These methods have commonalities in geometric characterizations at certain scales, which are observable with statistics and measurements. It also develops a semantic and theoretical framework and proposes a new system for organizing and designating multiscale analyses. Finally, future possibilities for multiscale analyses are discussed.
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| 23. |
- Ungar, Leo, et al.
(författare)
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Stroke Outcomes With Vorapaxar Versus Placebo in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes : Insights From the TRACER Trial
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Heart Association. - 2047-9980. ; 7:24
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundVorapaxar, a protease‐activated receptor‐1 antagonist, is approved for secondary prevention of cardiovascular events but is associated with increased intracranial hemorrhage.Methods and ResultsTRACER (Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome) was a trial of vorapaxar versus placebo among patients with acute coronary syndrome. Strokes were adjudicated by a central events committee. Of 12 944 patients, 199 (1.5%) had ≥1 stroke during the study period (median follow‐up, 477 days). Four patients had a single stroke of unknown type; 195 patients had ≥1 stroke classified as hemorrhagic or nonhemorrhagic (165 nonhemorrhagic, 28 hemorrhagic, and 2 both). Strokes occurred in 96 of 6473 patients (1.5%) assigned vorapaxar and 103 of 6471 patients (1.6%) assigned placebo. Kaplan‐Meier incidence of stroke for vorapaxar versus placebo was higher for hemorrhagic stroke (0.45% versus 0.14% [hazard ratio, 2.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.22–6.15]), lower but not significantly different for nonhemorrhagic stroke (1.53% versus 1.98% at 2 years [hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.58–1.07]), and similar for stroke overall (1.93% versus 2.13% at 2 years [hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.71–1.24]).ConclusionsStroke occurred in <2% of patients. Vorapaxar‐assigned patients had increased hemorrhagic stroke but a nonsignificant trend toward lower nonhemorrhagic stroke. Overall stroke frequency was similar with vorapaxar versus placebo.
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