| 1. |
- Van Roy, Ward, et al.
(författare)
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International maritime regulation decreases sulfur dioxide but increases nitrogen oxide emissions in the North and Baltic Sea
- 2023
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Ingår i: Communications Earth and Environment. - 2662-4435. ; 4:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions from shipping have been regulated internationally for more than fifteen years. Emissions reduction from shipping provides benefits for human health and the environment, but the effectiveness of regulations in reducing ship emissions is less well understood. Here, we examine how the establishment of European Emission Control Areas and other international maritime regulations in the North and Baltic Seas affect sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions in the region. We combine and analyze more than 110,000 ship plume measurements, inspection results, and satellite data from 2018 to 2022. We find that compliance rates for sulfur emissions are higher near ports than in open waters. However, the regulations did not affect the concentration of nitrogen oxide emissions, which increased in the past three years. These findings highlight the need for enhanced emission regulations that improve air quality.
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| 2. |
- Baggen, Jim, et al.
(författare)
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Role of enhanced receptor engagement in the evolution of a pandemic acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis virus
- 2018
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 115:2, s. 397-402
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) is a painful, contagious eye disease, with millions of cases in the last decades. Coxsackievirus A24 (CV-A24) was not originally associated with human disease, but in 1970 a pathogenic "variant" (CV-A24v) emerged, which is now the main cause of AHC. Initially, this variant circulated only in Southeast Asia, but it later spread worldwide, accounting for numerous AHC outbreaks and two pandemics. While both CV-A24 variant and nonvariant strains still circulate in humans, only variant strains cause AHC for reasons that are yet unknown. Since receptors are important determinants of viral tropism, we set out to map the CV-A24 receptor repertoire and establish whether changes in receptor preference have led to the increased pathogenicity and rapid spread of CV-A24v. Here, we identify ICAM-1 as an essential receptor for both AHC-causing and non-AHC strains. We provide a high-resolution cryo-EM structure of a virus-ICAM-1 complex, which revealed critical ICAM-1-binding residues. These data could help identify a possible conserved mode of receptor engagement among ICAM-1-binding enteroviruses and rhinoviruses. Moreover, we identify a single capsid substitution that has been adopted by all pandemic CV-A24v strains and we reveal that this adaptation enhances the capacity of CV-A24v to bind sialic acid. Our data elucidate the CV-A24v receptor repertoire and point to a role of enhanced receptor engagement in the adaptation to the eye, possibly enabling pandemic spread.
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| 3. |
- Prestele, Reinhard, et al.
(författare)
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Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections : a global-scale model comparison
- 2016
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 22:12, s. 3967-3983
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
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| 4. |
- Magliocca, Nicholas R., et al.
(författare)
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From meta-studies to modeling: Using synthesis knowledge to build broadly applicable process-based land change models
- 2015
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152. ; 72, s. 10-20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper explores how meta-studies can support the development of process-based land change models (LCMs) that can be applied across locations and scales. We describe a multi-step framework for model development and provide descriptions and examples of how meta-studies can be used in each step. We conclude that meta-studies best support the conceptualization and experimentation phases of the model development cycle, but cannot typically provide full model parameterizations. Moreover, meta-studies are particularly useful for developing agent-based LCMs that can be applied across a wide range of contexts, locations, and/or scales, because meta-studies provide both quantitative and qualitative data needed to derive agent behaviors more readily than from case study or aggregate data sources alone. Recent land change synthesis studies provide sufficient topical breadth and depth to support the development of broadly applicable process-based LCMs, as well as the potential to accelerate the production of generalized knowledge through model-driven synthesis. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
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