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- Fitzmauric, C., et al.
(författare)
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Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017 : A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
- 2019
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Ingår i: JAMA Oncology. - : American Medical Association. - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 5:12, s. 1749-1768
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.
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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Zhu, J, et al.
(författare)
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The atypical ubiquitin ligase RNF31 stabilizes estrogen receptor α and modulates estrogen-stimulated breast cancer cell proliferation.
- 2014
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Ingår i: Oncogene. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0950-9232 .- 1476-5594. ; 33:34, s. 4340-4351
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Estrogen receptor α (ERα) is initially expressed in the majority of breast cancers and promotes estrogen-dependent cancer progression by regulating the transcription of genes linked to cell proliferation. ERα status is of clinical importance, as ERα-positive breast cancers can be successfully treated by adjuvant therapy with antiestrogens or aromatase inhibitors. Complications arise from the frequent development of drug resistance that might be caused by multiple alterations, including components of ERα signaling, during tumor progression and metastasis. Therefore, insights into the molecular mechanisms that control ERα expression and stability are of utmost importance to improve breast cancer diagnostics and therapeutics. Here we report that the atypical E3 ubiquitin ligase RNF31 stabilizes ERα and facilitates ERα-stimulated proliferation in breast cancer cell lines. We show that depletion of RNF31 decreases the number of cells in the S phase and reduces the levels of ERα and its downstream target genes, including cyclin D1 and c-myc. Analysis of data from clinical samples confirms correlation between RNF31 expression and the expression of ERα target genes. Immunoprecipitation indicates that RNF31 associates with ERα and increases its stability and mono-ubiquitination, dependent on the ubiquitin ligase activity of RNF31. Our data suggest that association of RNF31 and ERα occurs mainly in the cytosol, consistent with the lack of RNF31 recruitment to ERα-occupied promoters. In conclusion, our study establishes a non-genomic mechanism by which RNF31 via stabilizing ERα levels controls the transcription of estrogen-dependent genes linked to breast cancer cell proliferation.
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- Azerkan, Fatima, et al.
(författare)
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Cervical screening participation and risk among Swedish-born and immigrant women in Sweden
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 130:4, s. 937-947
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cervical cancer is one of the most common cancers among women worldwide, although cervical screening has reduced the incidence in many high-income countries. Low screening uptake among immigrant women may reflect differences in risk of cervical cancer. We investigated the degree of participation in cervical screening among immigrant and Swedish-born women and their concurrent risk of cervical cancer based on individual information on Pap smears taken both from organized and opportunistic screening. Mean degree of participation in cervical screening was estimated for women between 23 and 60 years from 1993 to 2005, stratified by birth region and age at migration. In Poisson regression models, we estimated relative risks (RRs), incidence rates and incidence rate ratios of cervical cancer for women adhering or not to the cervical screening program. We also assessed effect of adherence to screening on the risk of cervical cancer among immigrant groups compared to Swedish-born women. The degree of participation was 62% and 49% among Swedish-born and immigrant women, respectively, with large variations between immigrant groups. Participation was lowest among those immigrating at older ages. Swedish-born and immigrant women who where nonadherent to the cervical screening program had a fivefold excess risk of cervical cancer compared to adherent women. After adjustment for screening adherence, excess RRs of cervical cancer were statistically significant only for women from Norway and the Baltic States. Participation to screening is lower among immigrant than Swedish-born women, and adherence to the recommended screening intervals strongly prevents cervical cancer.
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- Mir, MR, et al.
(författare)
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Short- and long-term survival of esophageal cancer patients treated at the Cancer Institute of Iran
- 2013
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Ingår i: Digestive surgery. - : S. Karger AG. - 1421-9883 .- 0253-4886. ; 30:4-6, s. 331-336
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- <b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Little data is available on the prognosis of esophageal cancer (EC) in Iran. We studied the short- and long-term survival of EC patients treated at the Cancer Institute of Iran. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> 619 patients were followed who had been operated in the years 1997-2006. The 1-month to 5-year survival rates of EC and hazard ratios (HR) for different prognostic factors were estimated. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Median survival was 11.5 months and 5-year survival was 10%. Patients at the advanced stage had a 2.1-fold higher risk of mortality compared to the early stage (95% CI 1.2-3.4). One-month mortality decreased from 12.2 in 1997-1999 to 9.1% in 2003-2006. In the first month, patients who were diagnosed in 2003-2006 had a significantly (60%) lower HR compared to 1997-1999 (HR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.1-0.9). In addition, patients with cardiopulmonary complications had an 11.7-fold higher HR compared to patients without complications (95% CI 4.7-29.3). <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> The 5-year survival rate for operated EC patients was considerably low in Iran. Cardiopulmonary complications were the strong prognostic factors for first-month mortality. We suggest improving the pre- and postoperative care of EC to control these complications. Regular monitoring of patient survival is recommended to evaluate the effect of this intervention.
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