| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 3. |
- Meixner, Margaret, et al.
(författare)
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Herschel and ALMA measurements of dust and molecules in supernova 1987A
- 2013
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Ingår i: Proceedings of Science. - 1824-8039. ; Part F113823
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dust production by supernovae is important in the dust life cycle of a galaxy. The explosion of SN 1987A was the nearest SN detected in the last 400 years, allowing us detailed studies of contemporary evolution of a supernova for the first time. In 2011, Matsuura et al. reported 0.4-0.7 M of dust in SN 1987A based on Herschel HERITAGE survey data, which is surprisingly large compared to prior measurements of supernovae. In this paper, we present our follow-up studies of this important discovery about SN 1987A using the Herschel Space Observatory and the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). We highlight two important results, the detection of cold molecular gas and dust in the ejected material of SN 1987A. Our results suggest that SNe are significant producers of dust and molecules, as well as heavy elements, driving chemical evolution of galaxies.
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| 4. |
- Sampson, Joshua N., et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for 13 Cancer Types
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 107:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, h(l)(2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (rho = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (rho = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (rho = 0.51, SE = 0.18), and bladder and lung (rho = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.
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| 5. |
- Roelfsema, P. R., et al.
(författare)
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SPICA-A Large Cryogenic Infrared Space Telescope : Unveiling the Obscured Universe
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications Astronomical Society of Australia. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 1323-3580 .- 1448-6083. ; 35
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Measurements in the infrared wavelength domain allow direct assessment of the physical state and energy balance of cool matter in space, enabling the detailed study of the processes that govern the formation and evolution of stars and planetary systems in galaxies over cosmic time. Previous infrared missions revealed a great deal about the obscured Universe, but were hampered by limited sensitivity. SPICA takes the next step in infrared observational capability by combining a large 2.5-meter diameter telescope. cooled to below 8 K, with instruments employing ultra-sensitive detectors. A combination of passive cooling and mechanical coolers will be used to cool both the telescope and the instruments. With mechanical coolers the mission lifetime is not limited by the supply of cryogen. With the combination of low telescope background and instruments with state-of-the-art detectors SPICA provides a huge advance on the capabilities of previous missions. SPICA instruments offer spectral resolving power ranging from R similar to 50 through 11 000 in the 17-230 mu m domain and R similar to 28.000 spectroscopy between 12 and 18 mu m.SPICA will provide efficient 30-37 mu m broad band mapping, and small field spectroscopic and polarimetric imaging at 100, 200 and 350 mu m. SPICA will provide infrared spectroscopy with an unprecedented sensitivity of similar to 5 x 10(-20) W m (-2) (5 sigma/1 h)-over two orders of magnitude improvement over what earlier missions. This exceptional performance leap, will open entirely new domains in infrared astronomy; galaxy evolution and metal production over cosmic time, dust formation and evolution from very early epochs onwards, the formation history of planetary systems.
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| 6. |
- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(författare)
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
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| 7. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 8. |
- Kamenetzky, J., et al.
(författare)
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CARBON MONOXIDE IN THE COLD DEBRIS OF SUPERNOVA 1987A
- 2013
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Ingår i: ASTROPHYS J LETT. - 2041-8205. ; 773:2, s. L34-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report spectroscopic and imaging observations of rotational transitions of cold CO and SiO in the ejecta of SN1987A, the first such emission detected in a supernova remnant. In addition to line luminosities for the CO J = 1-0, 2-1, 6-5, and 7-6 transitions, we present upper limits for all other transitions up to J = 13-12, collectively measured from the Atacama Large Millimeter Array, the Atacama Pathfinder EXperiment, and the Herschel Spectral and Photometric Imaging REceiver. Simple models show the lines are emitted from at least 0.01 M-circle dot of CO at a temperature >14 K, confined within at most 35% of a spherical volume expanding at similar to 2000 km s(-1). Moreover, we locate the emission within 1 '' of the central debris. These observations, along with a partial observation of SiO, confirm the presence of cold molecular gas within supernova remnants and provide insight into the physical conditions and chemical processes in the ejecta. Furthermore, we demonstrate the powerful new window into supernova ejecta offered by submillimeter observations.
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| 9. |
- Kamenetzky, J., et al.
(författare)
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CARBON MONOXIDE IN THE COLD DEBRIS OF SUPERNOVA 1987A
- 2013
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 773:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report spectroscopic and imaging observations of rotational transitions of cold CO and SiO in the ejecta of SN1987A, the first such emission detected in a supernova remnant. In addition to line luminosities for the CO J = 1-0, 2-1, 6-5, and 7-6 transitions, we present upper limits for all other transitions up to J = 13-12, collectively measured from the Atacama Large Millimeter Array, the Atacama Pathfinder EXperiment, and the Herschel Spectral and Photometric Imaging REceiver. Simple models show the lines are emitted from at least 0.01 M-circle dot of CO at a temperature >14 K, confined within at most 35% of a spherical volume expanding at similar to 2000 km s(-1). Moreover, we locate the emission within 1 '' of the central debris. These observations, along with a partial observation of SiO, confirm the presence of cold molecular gas within supernova remnants and provide insight into the physical conditions and chemical processes in the ejecta. Furthermore, we demonstrate the powerful new window into supernova ejecta offered by submillimeter observations.
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| 10. |
- Wang, Zhaoming, et al.
(författare)
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Imputation and subset-based association analysis across different cancer types identifies multiple independent risk loci in the TERT-CLPTM1L region on chromosome 5p15.33
- 2014
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Ingår i: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 23:24, s. 6616-6633
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have mapped risk alleles for at least 10 distinct cancers to a small region of 63 000 bp on chromosome 5p15.33. This region harbors the TERT and CLPTM1L genes; the former encodes the catalytic subunit of telomerase reverse transcriptase and the latter may play a role in apoptosis. To investigate further the genetic architecture of common susceptibility alleles in this region, we conducted an agnostic subset-based meta-analysis (association analysis based on subsets) across six distinct cancers in 34 248 cases and 45 036 controls. Based on sequential conditional analysis, we identified as many as six independent risk loci marked by common single-nucleotide polymorphisms: five in the TERT gene (Region 1: rs7726159, P = 2.10 × 10(-39); Region 3: rs2853677, P = 3.30 × 10(-36) and PConditional = 2.36 × 10(-8); Region 4: rs2736098, P = 3.87 × 10(-12) and PConditional = 5.19 × 10(-6), Region 5: rs13172201, P = 0.041 and PConditional = 2.04 × 10(-6); and Region 6: rs10069690, P = 7.49 × 10(-15) and PConditional = 5.35 × 10(-7)) and one in the neighboring CLPTM1L gene (Region 2: rs451360; P = 1.90 × 10(-18) and PConditional = 7.06 × 10(-16)). Between three and five cancers mapped to each independent locus with both risk-enhancing and protective effects. Allele-specific effects on DNA methylation were seen for a subset of risk loci, indicating that methylation and subsequent effects on gene expression may contribute to the biology of risk variants on 5p15.33. Our results provide strong support for extensive pleiotropy across this region of 5p15.33, to an extent not previously observed in other cancer susceptibility loci.
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| 11. |
- Matsuura, M., et al.
(författare)
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A STUBBORNLY LARGE MASS OF COLD DUST IN THE EJECTA OF SUPERNOVA 1987A
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 800:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present new Herschel photometric and spectroscopic observations of Supernova 1987A, carried out in 2012. Our dedicated photometric measurements provide new 70 mu m data and improved imaging quality at 100 and 160 mu m compared to previous observations in 2010. Our Herschel spectra show only weak CO line emission, and provide an upper limit for the 63 mu m [O-I] line flux, eliminating the possibility that line contaminations distort the previously estimated dustmass. The far-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) is well fitted by thermal emission from cold dust. The newly measured 70 mu m flux constrains the dust temperature, limiting it to nearly a single temperature. The far-infrared emission can be fitted by 0.5 +/- 0.1M(circle dot) of amorphous carbon, about a factor of two larger than the current nucleosynthetic mass prediction for carbon. The observation of SiO molecules at early and late phases suggests that silicates may also have formed and we could fit the SED with a combination of 0.3M(circle dot) of amorphous carbon and 0.5M(circle dot) of silicates, totalling 0.8M(circle dot) of dust. Our analysis thus supports the presence of a large dust reservoir in the ejecta of SN 1987A. The inferred dust mass suggests that supernovae can be an important source of dust in the interstellar medium, from local to high-redshift galaxies.
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| 12. |
- Lion, T., et al.
(författare)
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The EuroChimerism concept for a standardized approach to chimerism analysis after allogeneic stem cell transplantation
- 2012
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Ingår i: Leukemia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0887-6924 .- 1476-5551. ; 26:8, s. 1821-1828
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is becoming an increasingly important approach to treatment of different malignant and non-malignant disorders. There is thus growing demand for diagnostic assays permitting the surveillance of donor/recipient chimerism posttransplant. Current techniques are heterogeneous, rendering uniform evaluation and comparison of diagnostic results between centers difficult. Leading laboratories from 10 European countries have therefore performed a collaborative study supported by a European grant, the EuroChimerism Concerted Action, with the aim to develop a standardized diagnostic methodology for the detection and monitoring of chimerism in patients undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Following extensive analysis of a large set of microsatellite/short tandem repeat (STR) loci, the EuroChimerism (EUC) panel comprising 13 STR markers was established with the aim to optimally meet the specific requirements of quantitative chimerism analysis. Based on highly stringent selection criteria, the EUC panel provides multiple informative markers in any transplant setting. The standardized STR-PCR tests permit detection of donor-or recipient-derived cells at a sensitivity ranging between 0.8 and 1.6%. Moreover, the EUC assay facilitates accurate and reproducible quantification of donor and recipient hematopoietic cells. Wide use of the European-harmonized protocol for chimerism analysis presented will provide a basis for optimal diagnostic support and timely treatment decisions.
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| 13. |
- Blauhut, Veit, et al.
(författare)
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Lessons from the 2018-2019 European droughts : a collective need for unifying drought risk management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 22:6, s. 2201-2217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. While hazard severity and frequency of past drought events have been studied in detail, little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders. In a continental study, we characterised and assessed the impacts and the perceptions of two recent drought events (2018 and 2019) in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard, and impact. The study was based on a pan-European survey involving national representatives from 28 countries and relevant stakeholders responding to a standard questionnaire. The survey focused on collecting information on stakeholders' perceptions of drought, impacts on water resources and beyond, water availability, and current drought management strategies on national and regional scales. The survey results were compared with the actual drought hazard information registered by the European Drought Observatory (EDO) for 2018 and 2019. The results highlighted high diversity in drought perception across different countries and in values of the implemented drought management strategies to alleviate impacts by increasing national and sub-national awareness and resilience. The study identifies an urgent need to further reduce drought impacts by constructing and implementing a European macro-level drought governance approach, such as a directive, which would strengthen national drought management and mitigate damage to human and natural assets.
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| 14. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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Panta Rhei benchmark dataset : Socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 15:5, s. 2009-2023
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
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| 15. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 608:7921, s. 80-86
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Zanardo, G., et al.
(författare)
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Spectral and Morphological Analysis of the Remnant of Supernova 1987A with ALMA and ATCA
- 2014
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 796:2, s. Art. no. 82-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a comprehensive spectral and morphological analysis of the remnant of supernova (SN) 1987A with the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) and the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). The non-thermal and thermal components of the radio emission are investigated in images from 94 to 672 GHz (lambda 3.2 mm to 450 mu m), with the assistance of a high-resolution 44 GHz synchrotron template from the ATCA, and a dust template from ALMA observations at 672 GHz. An analysis of the emission distribution over the equatorial ring in images from 44 to 345 GHz highlights a gradual decrease of the east-to-west asymmetry ratio with frequency. We attribute this to the shorter synchrotron lifetime at high frequencies. Across the transition from radio to far infrared, both the synchrotron/dust-subtracted images and the spectral energy distribution (SED) suggest additional emission beside the main synchrotron component (S-nu proportional to nu(-0.73)) and the thermal component originating from dust grains at T similar to 22 K. This excess could be due to free-free flux or emission from grains of colder dust. However, a second flat-spectrum synchrotron component appears to better fit the SED, implying that the emission could be attributed to a pulsar wind nebula (PWN). The residual emission is mainly localized west of the SN site, as the spectral analysis yields -0.4 less than or similar to alpha less than or similar to -0.1 across the western regions, with alpha similar to 0 around the central region. If there is a PWN in the remnant interior, these data suggest that the pulsar may be offset westward from the SN position.
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| 18. |
- McDonald, I., et al.
(författare)
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ALMA reveals sunburn : CO dissociation around AGB stars in the globular cluster 47 Tucanae
- 2015
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 453:4, s. 4324-4336
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Atacama Large Millimetre Array observations show a non-detection of carbon monoxide around the four most luminous asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the globular cluster 47 Tucanae. Stellar evolution models and star counts show that the mass-loss rates from these stars should be similar to 1.2-3.5x10(-7) M-circle dot yr(-1). We would naively expect such stars to be detectable at this distance (4.5 kpc). By modelling the ultraviolet radiation field from post-AGB stars and white dwarfs in 47 Tuc, we conclude that CO should be dissociated abnormally close to the stars. We estimate that the CO envelopes will be truncated at a few hundred stellar radii from their host stars and that the line intensities are about two orders of magnitude below our current detection limits. The truncation of CO envelopes should be important for AGB stars in dense clusters. Observing the CO (3-2) and higher transitions and targeting stars far from the centres of clusters should result in the detections needed to measure the outflow velocities from these stars.
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| 19. |
- Groenewegen, M. A. T., et al.
(författare)
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The ALMA detection of CO rotational line emission in AGB stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596, s. 50-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Low- and intermediate-mass stars lose most of their stellar mass at the end of their lives on the asymptotic giant branch (AGB). Determining gas and dust mass-loss rates (MLRs) is important in quantifying the contribution of evolved stars to the enrichment of the interstellar medium.Aims. This study attempts to spectrally resolve CO thermal line emission in a small sample of AGB stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC).Methods. The Atacama Large Millimeter Array was used to observe two OH/IR stars and four carbon stars in the LMC in the CO J = 2−1 line.Results. We present the first measurement of expansion velocities in extragalactic carbon stars. All four C stars are detected and wind expansion velocities and stellar velocities are directly measured. Mass-loss rates are derived from modelling the spectral energy distribution and Spitzer/IRS spectrum with the DUSTY code. The derived gas-to-dust ratios allow the predicted velocities to agree with the observed gas-to-dust ratios. The expansion velocities and MLRs are compared to a Galactic sample of well-studied relatively low MLRs stars supplemented with extreme C stars with properties that are more similar to the LMC targets. Gas MLRs derived from a simple formula are significantly smaller than those derived from dust modelling, indicating an order of magnitude underestimate of the estimated CO abundance, time-variable mass loss, or that the CO intensities in LMC stars are lower than predicted by the formula derived for Galactic objects. This could be related to a stronger interstellar radiation field in the LMC.Conclusions. Although the LMC sample is small and the comparison to Galactic stars is non-trivial because of uncertainties in their distances (hence luminosities), it appears that for C stars the wind expansion velocities in the LMC are lower than in the solar neighbourhood, while the MLRs appear to be similar. This is in agreement with dynamical dust-driven wind models.
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| 20. |
- Indebetouw, R., et al.
(författare)
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DUST PRODUCTION AND PARTICLE ACCELERATION IN SUPERNOVA 1987A REVEALED WITH ALMA
- 2014
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 782:1, s. 6-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Supernova (SN) explosions are crucial engines driving the evolution of galaxies by shock heating gas, increasing the metallicity, creating dust, and accelerating energetic particles. In 2012 we used the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array to observe SN 1987A, one of the best-observed supernovae since the invention of the telescope. We present spatially resolved images at 450 mu m, 870 mu m, 1.4 mm, and 2.8 mm, an important transition wavelength range. Longer wavelength emission is dominated by synchrotron radiation from shock-accelerated particles, shorter wavelengths by emission from the largest mass of dust measured in a supernova remnant (>0.2 M-circle dot). For the first time we show unambiguously that this dust has formed in the inner ejecta (the cold remnants of the exploded star's core). The dust emission is concentrated at the center of the remnant, so the dust has not yet been affected by the shocks. If a significant fraction survives, and if SN 1987A is typical, supernovae are important cosmological dust producers.
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| 21. |
- Matsuura, M., et al.
(författare)
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Detection of Rotational Co Emission from the Red-Supergiants in the Large Magellanic Cloud
- 2015
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Ingår i: EAS Publications Series. - : EDP Sciences. - 1633-4760 .- 1638-1963. - 9782759819072 ; 71-72, s. 53-56
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is yet well understood how mass-loss rates from evolved stars depend on metallicities. With a half of the solar metallicity and the distance of only 50 kpc, the evolved stars of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) are an ideal target for studying mass loss at low metallicity. We have obtained spectra of red-supergiants in the LMC, using the Hershel Space Observatory, detecting CO thermal lines fro J=6-5 up to 15-14 lines. Modelling CO lines with non-LTE Radiative transfer code suggests that CO lines intensities can be well explained with high gas-to-dust ratio, with no obvious reduction in mass-loss rate at the LMC. We conclude that the luminosities of the stars are dominant factors on mass-loss rates, rather than the metallicity.
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| 22. |
- Matsuura, M., et al.
(författare)
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Herschel Detects a Massive Dust Reservoir in Supernova 1987A
- 2011
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 333:6047, s. 1258-1261
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report far-infrared and submillimeter observations of supernova 1987A, the star whose explosion was observed on 23 February 1987 in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a galaxy located 160,000 light years away. The observations reveal the presence of a population of cold dust grains radiating with a temperature of about 17 to 23 kelvin at a rate of about 220 times the luminosity of the Sun. The intensity and spectral energy distribution of the emission suggest a dust mass of about 0.4 to 0.7 times the mass of the Sun. The radiation must originate from the supernova ejecta and requires the efficient precipitation of all refractory material into dust. Our observations imply that supernovae can produce the large dust masses detected in young galaxies at very high redshifts.
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| 23. |
- Matsuura, M., et al.
(författare)
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The mass-loss rates of red supergiants at low metallicity: detection of rotational CO emission from two red supergiants in the Large Magellanic Cloud
- 2016
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 462:3, s. 2995-3005
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using the PACS and SPIRE spectrometers on-board the Herschel Space Observatory, we obtained spectra of two red supergiants (RSGs) in the Large MagellanicCloud (LMC). Multiple rotational CO emission lines (J = 6-5 to 15-14) and 15 H2O lines were detected from IRAS 05280-6910, and one CO line was detected from WOH G64. This is the first time that CO rotational lines have been detected from evolved stars in the LMC. Their CO line intensities are as strong as those of the Galactic RSG, VY CMa. Modelling the CO lines and the spectral energy distribution results in an estimated mass-loss rate for IRAS 05280-6910 of 3 x 10(-4) M-circle dot yr(-1). The model assumes a gas-to-dust ratio and a CO-to-H-2 abundance ratio is estimated from the Galactic values scaled by the LMC metallicity ([Fe/H] similar to -0.3), i.e. that the CO-to-dust ratio is constant for Galactic and LMC metallicities within the uncertainties of the model. The key factor determining the CO line intensities and the mass-loss rate found to be the stellar luminosity.
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| 24. |
- Payne, T. E., et al.
(författare)
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Guidelines for thermodynamic sorption modelling in the context of radioactive waste disposal
- 2013
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling and Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152. ; 42, s. 143-156
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thermodynamic sorption models (TSMs) offer the potential to improve the incorporation of sorption in environmental modelling of contaminant migration. One specific application is safety cases for radioactive waste repositories, in which radionuclide sorption on mineral surfaces is usually described using distribution coefficients (K-d values). TSMs can be utilised to provide a scientific basis for the range of K-d values included in the repository safety case, and for assessing the response of K-d to changes in chemical conditions. The development of a TSM involves a series of decisions on model features such as numbers and types of surface sites, sorption reactions and electrostatic correction factors. There has been a lack of consensus on the best ways to develop such models, and on the methods of determination of associated parameter values. The present paper therefore presents recommendations on a number of aspects of model development, which are applicable both to radioactive waste disposal and broader environmental applications.The TSM should be calibrated using a comprehensive sorption data set for the contaminant of interest, showing the impact of major geochemical parameters including pH, ionic strength, contaminant concentration, the effect of ligands, and major competing ions. Complex natural materials should be thoroughly characterised in terms of mineralogy, surface area, cation exchange capacity, and presence of impurities. During the application of numerical optimisation programs to simulate sorption data, it is often preferable that the TSM should be fitted to the experimentally determined K-d parameter, rather than to the frequently used percentage sorbed. Two different modelling approaches, the component additivity and generalised composite, can be used for modelling sorption data for complex materials such as soils. Both approaches may be coupled to the same critically reviewed aqueous thermodynamic data sets, and may incorporate the same, or similar, surface reactions and surface species. The quality of the final sorption model can be assessed against the following characteristics: an appropriate level of complexity, documented and traceable decisions, internal consistency, limitations on the number of adjustable parameter values, an adequate fit to a comprehensive calibration data set, and capability of simulating independent data sets. Key recommendations for the process of TSM development include: definition of modelling objectives, identification of major decision points, a clear decision-making rationale with reference to experimental or theoretical evidence, utilisation of a suitable consultative and iterative model development process, testing to the maximum practicable extent, and thorough documentation of key decisions. These recommendations are consistent with international benchmarks for environmental modelling.
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| 25. |
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